Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NBA Title Odds
It's right there in the headline: These 2018 NBA title odds are way too early.
But what better way to assess where all 30 teams stand after the official conclusion of the 2016-17 season than to immediately stratify their chances at ultimate success next year?
Parsing out championship odds is a quick way to evaluate present talent, roster uncertainty, upside and downside. It basically forces a referendum on the entire short-term state of each franchise. With the draft and free agency coming up so quickly, consider this a snapshot of where every team stands.
There are some wrinkles that cloud the numbers.
For starters, the path through the Western Conference remains tougher. Not only are the Golden State Warriors looming as a perennial powerhouse, but several other elite clubs reside in the West as well. It's not quite as simple as beating the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East, but aside from the Boston Celtics, there aren't any other potentially elite obstacles.
As such, a handful of Eastern Conference clubs will get better odds than West counterparts who are, objectively, better teams.
The 2017-18 season will start about a week earlier than usual, so we've only got four months to get a handle on next season's title picture. Better get started.
So You're Telling Me There's a Chance!
1 of 14
If you're not going to trot out the requisite long-shot cliche for this quintet of lottery staples in the early states of rebuilding, you're doing title odds wrong.
These clubs have a chance to win a ring in 2018 because there's always the possibility 25 other teams get sucked into a black hole and disappear forever. But other than that...
Brooklyn Nets: 500-1
Enjoy cracking your "Well, at least they're helping their lottery position...oh wait!" jokes about the Nets because this is the last season you'll get to use them.
Brooklyn will be out from under its onerous draft obligations after conveying an unprotected 2018 first-rounder to the Boston Celtics, which means the upcoming campaign will be the final one in which mounting losses have no positive impact on the future.
The Nets will fire the cash cannon at free agents again this summer, perhaps targeting restricted options like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter. Brooklyn won't land a needle-mover, though.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson has a terrific pace-and-space system installed, and the Nets will field an entertaining offense if Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez are healthy.
Orlando Magic: 500-1
The Orlando Magic are in the unenviable position of having several former lottery picks on the roster but little faith that any of them are top-end building blocks.
Maybe Aaron Gordon gets there with more work on his jumper and more time at power forward, but the Magic are otherwise bereft of difference-making youth.
An off year shouldn't foreclose the possibility of Frank Vogel coaxing respectable defense from this roster, but even a jump into the middle of the pack on that end of the floor (they ranked 24th in defensive efficiency) won't be enough to make a playoff berth realistic—not with an offense that finished second-to-last in 2016-17.
Phoenix Suns: 500-1
At the risk of stepping on the toes of Toronto Raptors perma-prospect Bruno Caboclo, the Phoenix Suns feel like they're two years away from being two years away.
Dragan Bender played just 13.3 minutes per game last year as a 19-year-old, and Marquese Chriss alternated flashes of athletic brilliance with extended stretches of cluelessness on both ends. Typical rookie stuff.
Those two are still early in the developmental process, and Phoenix's vets (chiefly Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley) are both on the decline. That leaves Devin Booker as a bright spot, but he's still at the stage where his scoring will keep things entertaining without producing success.
Eric Bledsoe should be a trade candidate in a point guard-rich draft, and Brandon Knight is dead money.
There's hope here, but it's a long way from materializing.
Los Angeles Lakers: 500-1
Landing Paul George would get the Lakers out of this category, but with head coach Luke Walton underscoring the risk of win-now philosophies, it sure feels like PG's arrival is a year away.
"I joke a lot," Walton told B/R's Howard Beck and Jordan Brenner on The Full 48. "I said 'if there's a time to be rebuilding, this is the time to do it.' The Warriors don't look like they're going anywhere for a while. They're pretty darn good right now."
The Lakers will add more young talent with their No. 2 overall pick, augmenting a developing core of D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram and Jordan Clarkson.
With their 2018 first-round selection ticketed for the Philadelphia 76ers, the Lakers at least have less incentive to tank this year than last. But the youth on the roster makes L.A. a postseason long shot—and a title is out of the question entirely.
Sacramento Kings: 500-1
Never rule out the Kings scrapping their rebuild and trading for vets. Hasty pivots are their favorite kind.
But barring yet another capricious shift in philosophy, Sacramento is poised to finally begin a proper and deliberate reconstruction. For years, DeMarcus Cousins' talent kept the Kings on the fringes of playoff relevance. Now, the team's young nucleus of Buddy Hield, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and whatever comes of its fifth and 10th picks in this year's draft make up the nucleus—one ticketed for 50-plus losses.
The only urgency to win comes in 2019, when the Kings will lose their first-rounder to the Sixers.
Better, but Still Not Happening
2 of 14
These clubs still have exceptionally long odds, but none profile as candidates for finishing with the fewest wins in the league—which you couldn't say about the teams occupying the previous section.
We're making progress.
New York Knicks: 300-1
It doesn't matter if Carmelo Anthony plays for New York next year or not, which says all you need to know about how his production measures up to his contract.
The state of the Knicks is hardly all Melo's fault, though. Team president Phil Jackson green-lit Anthony's no-trade clause, keeps insisting on implementation of the triangle and saddled the payroll with Joakim Noah's albatross deal.
Kristaps Porzingis should take another step forward in his third year, though it's hard to know how motivated he'll be if he's unhappy with the franchise's direction.
You'll find title odds for the Knicks around 100-to-1 in gambling circles, but that's only because they're a public team whose stature and popularity draw disproportionately optimistic wagering.
Objectively, they remain a complete mess.
Atlanta Hawks: 250-1
Dwight Howard is working on his three-point shooting, which is fun.
Skepticism is fair on that front, as Howard spends every offseason professing reinvention of some sort and then looking like the same guy. Howard's mobility is diminishing, and the Hawks could lose defensive mistake-eraser Paul Millsap in free agency.
Defense kept Atlanta competitive last season, and slippage on that end—whether through age or lost personnel—would be disastrous.
Retaining Millsap is critical in the short term, though his age (32) means decline is imminent.
Taurean Prince enjoyed a miniature breakout in the 2017 playoffs and could take a leap in his second season. If he develops into a true three-and-D stud, the Hawks could wind up repeating as a low playoff seed.
Otherwise, Atlanta is a team trending downward—even if Millsap stays.
Dallas Mavericks: 250-1
Dirk Nowitzki doesn't prop up the offense like he used to, and Nerlens Noel's injury concerns mean he might not play enough to give the Mavs enough two-way oomph.
Noel, Harrison Barnes and Seth Curry could all improve, and Rick Carlisle consistently gets the most out of his roster. That the Mavericks were in the playoff conversation deep into the year with several undrafted free agents playing major minutes says plenty about the culture and system in Dallas.
The Mavs will find ways to compete for long stretches of the season because they always do. But this isn't a team in title-chasing position.
Indiana Pacers: 200-1
Uncertainty surrounds Paul George, and there's a nonzero chance the Pacers try to get out ahead of his possible free-agency exit by moving him as part of a rebuild before the summer of 2018.
The alternative is adding talent around him and trying to build the most potent short-term roster possible. If Indy opts for that course under new GM Kevin Pritchard, perhaps it'll warrant a move into the next tier.
Myles Turner will continue to develop, but the rest of Indiana's roster is veteran-heavy and unlikely to be better than it was in 2016-17. So whether the Pacers tab this season as a full-on transition year or one in which short-term success matters most, there's very little upside potential.
The Pacers were mediocre last season, and that feels like their ceiling for now.
Detroit Pistons: 200-1
It's possible conventional wisdom pegged the Pistons as a fringe contender a year too early. But after failing to deliver on their potential in a 2016-17 campaign that began with 50-win hopes and ended in the lottery, Detroit has lost the benefit of the doubt.
Questions abound.
Are we sure KCP is worth retaining if it means matching a max offer?
Is Andre Drummond a viable big-minute center in the modern NBA, let alone worth his own max deal?
Is Reggie Jackson a quality starter?
Serious title contenders don't face these sorts of questions about their best players.
The Realm of Possibility...Just Barely
3 of 14
These squads have excellent shots at playoff berths and enough upside to potentially advance a round or two if things break right.
That's different than saying they have a realistic crack at a title, but at least we're out of "no way, no how" territory.
Charlotte Hornets: 150-1
Charlotte's 10 highest-paid players are all under team control for 2017-18, so we know who'll determine the team's fate: the same group that amassed a 36-46 mark while missing the playoffs this year.
Injuries scuttled the Hornets in 2016-17, and their positive overall point differential suggests they were far better than their record.
Kemba Walker is a star, but Cody Zeller was nearly as important, which isn't a great sign because he's headed for free agency. Though it's remarkable that the Hornets went from a plus-5.4 net rating with Zeller on the floor to a minus-3.6 with him off, that gap points to a lack of supporting talent. Losing a role player shouldn't result in disaster.
The reason Charlotte resides in this section is simple: Its high-end forecast is probably the 48-34 finish it registered two years ago. And that wasn't nearly good enough.
New Orleans Pelicans: 150-1
Let the great experiment begin!
Or continue, I guess.
Cousins and Anthony Davis get their full-season chance to make it big in an NBA getting smaller by the second.
Their pure talent is enough to make the Pelicans dangerous against almost anyone, but Jrue Holiday's free agency injects uncertainty while several bad contracts limit flexibility. The Pelicans could easily jump into the playoff mix, but slotting them here is a tell: I don't think they're constructed in a way that gives them a chance against the undersized and ultra-skilled squads slated for deeper postseason runs.
Chicago Bulls: 150-1
Forget all this if Jimmy Butler is playing somewhere else come opening night, but the Bulls are otherwise positioned to perform as well as they did in 2016-17.
Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo might or might not be back; nothing's official for either potential free agent just yet. If they return, the Bulls can essentially trot out the same roster they finished with last year—though Nikola Mirotic's free agency is another question mark.
The Bulls don't have a capable backup point guard, Rondo is a roll of the dice even after last season's late surge, and there's not enough shooting on the perimeter.
A reprise of an uninspiring status quo or a step back are the likeliest outcomes. A title only happens with home runs in free agency and roughly a million other good breaks.
Philadelphia 76ers: 150-1
The Sixers outscored opponents whenever Joel Embiid was on the floor.
That's where you start with this team—still a cobbled-together mix of cheap role-fillers, unproven lottery tickets and inconsequential veterans.
If Embiid is healthy, the playoffs are a real possibility. At the same time, Ben Simmons will probably be a net negative in his first season, and Dario Saric must improve his scoring efficiency to help a good team.
Philadelphia is still an organization with a long-view approach, though the chance of landing an impact free agent feels greater than it's been since The Process began. Add Kyle Lowry on a homecoming deal, and the Sixers are suddenly very interesting in the East...even if such a move would obliterate the team's big-picture plans.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 125-1
As a nod to the combination of transcendent talent and proven coaching, the Wolves occupy the top spot in this section.
Maybe it's a marginal distinction in the realm of long-odds hopefuls, but it feels right to set a team apart when it has Karl-Anthony Towns. Superstardom is a certainty for Minnesota's cornerstone center. If Tom Thibodeau gets him to defend consistently, Towns is immediately an MVP candidate.
Andrew Wiggins should improve (a little defensive effort wouldn't hurt him either), and maybe the 50-win potential many saw before the 2016-17 season shows up a year behind schedule.
The quality that gives the Wolves so much promise, youth, is the same one that means its potential playoff visit will be short. There are steps to reaching true contention, and Minnesota can take another one in 2017-18—moving incrementally forward by getting a taste of the postseason.
The ultimate destination remains out of reach for now, though.
Puncher's Chance
4 of 14
All of these teams made noise in 2016-17, and all have reasons to expect improvement going forward—or at least a repeat of last season.
You're money's still probably dead if you bet on any member of this fivesome, but it might stay on life support until April.
Miami Heat: 100-1
Under no circumstances should we foreclose the possibility of a major free-agent haul.
It's what the Heat do.
Maybe that means Gordon Hayward signs on. Maybe it's someone we haven't even thought of. Whatever happens, expect Miami to ride the momentum of a surprising 2016-17 that went from being a rebuild to a full-on playoff push.
Goran Dragic is back to his All-NBA level, Hassan Whiteside is a threat on both ends, and Pat Riley will do something impressive with the space freed up by Chris Bosh's contract coming off the books. Losing free agents James Johnson and Dion Waiters might hurt, but both played well above their previous levels last year.
If the Heat sign a star to replace them, it'll be a net gain.
Toss in better health for Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson and Justise Winslow, and you have a roster ready to put a first-round scare into anyone.
Denver Nuggets: 100-1
Nikola Jokic will lead the Nuggets to a top-five finish on offense in 2017-18. And if that sounds like a bold prediction, note they trailed only the Warriors in offensive efficiency after Jan. 1 last season.
Jamal Murray could make a leap, Gary Harris is still underrated, Wilson Chandler is a plus rotation option/trade bait, and with apologies to Mason Plumlee, Danilo Gallinari is the only free agent of real consequence.
Denver will battle with a half-dozen up-and-comers for one of the last playoff spots in the West again, but with offensive excellence a certainty, all the Nuggets have to do to win 50 games is defend at a league-average rate.
With the Warriors, Rockets or Spurs likely waiting in the first round, though, the Nuggets are in for a short postseason trip.
Memphis Grizzlies: 75-1
Age didn't drag Mike Conley or Marc Gasol down, as both enjoyed peak offensive seasons while adding scoring punch to the reliable griminess of Memphis' defensive approach.
Financial realities will hit the Grizz hard this summer. Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, Tony Allen and JaMychal Green are all free agents. And with over $74 million earmarked for Conley, Gasol and Chandler Parsons, there's not enough cash to keep everyone.
Market constraints and huge deals for Gasol and Conley mean the Grizzlies will never be a teardown candidate. Memphis will ride with this core.
A lot will have to go right for the Grizzlies to give their two best players the help they need, and the positive breaks will have to start with Parsons, who simply cannot repeat as one of the league's worst performers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 75-1
If Russell Westbrook doesn't ink an extension this summer and trading him becomes a real option, the calculus changes in a big way here.
Assuming Westbrook agrees to stay on, OKC will have to make a decision on free agent Andre Roberson while evaluating its perimeter shooting as a whole. Doug McDermott helps in that regard, but he's been more potential than production for most of his career.
Enes Kanter could get better, as could Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams.
In the end, what makes the Thunder compelling also limits their ceiling. As long as Westbrook demands to do it all, the Thunder will be an entertaining also-ran—playoff participants, but an easy cover for focused defenses that know Russ wants to do it his way.
Portland Trail Blazers: 75-1
Asking Jusuf Nurkic to sustain what he did after joining the Blazers via trade isn't as big of a request as it might seem.
At 22, his strength and skills are undeniable. He's also playing in a situation he seems to like for the first time, and he has elite perimeter threats around him. If your expectation is last year's 15.2 points and 10.4 rebounds (his averages as a Blazer), don't be surprised if a healthy Nurkic exceeds it.
Portland's high-scoring backcourt is a given, but the team's outlook depends on getting more help around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. If the Blazers can package one of their picks with a bad contract to clear space (looking at you, Evan Turner), maybe that's where the depth and defense will come from.
Milwaukee Bucks: 60-1
5 of 14
Jason Kidd may not be a great coach, Thon Maker might not develop into a trustworthy rotation weapon, Jabari Parker's recovery from a second torn ACL could be tougher than expected, and Greg Monroe probably won't have an equally fantastic season off the bench (if he's even still on the roster).
But the Milwaukee Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In a league defined by transcendent individual talent, that's enough for a top-10 spot in our title odds.
The Greek Freak took the leap last year, vaulting into the tiny fraternity of legitimate do-it-all superstars. His versatility, on-ball skills and devastating transition attacks pose uncrackable riddles for opponents. And while it's true the Bucks edged into the postseason with a 42-40 record, that hardly matters.
Because Antetokounmpo is going to get better.
He's 22, his jumper will improve, and he'll only assert himself more confidently on both ends after a true breakout campaign in 2016-17.
Maybe it's unsatisfying to explain the Bucks' title chances (which are still slim, even if they're among the top 10) in a way that's so uncomplicated. But sometimes, the NBA is simple.
If you have a generational talent that just keeps adding to his game, you have a chance.
Los Angeles Clippers: 50-1
6 of 14
Several caveats apply to the Los Angeles Clippers, who could look wildly different if Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, both free agents, wind up leaving this summer.
The possibility of Paul moving on seems slim, and chatter about him joining the San Antonio Spurs is almost certainly a negotiating ploy, according to a Western Conference executive, via B/R's Mike Monroe: "I think all that talk is nothing more than leverage. Chris is just trying to make sure he can leverage Doc [Rivers]."
Griffin might be another story, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical: "Boston is really the danger for Blake Griffin. I think Boston’s two primary free-agent targets, right now, are Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin."
It's also possible L.A. retains both stars on max deals, dives deeeeeeeeep into the tax to keep JJ Redick and runs the whole thing back. Lucking into a cheap wing would help, but even if the Clips trot out the same roster as last season, they'll be a lock for 50-plus wins and a top-five playoff spot.
A little good fortune on the injury front could land them in the conference finals, where they'd probably get crushed. Still, that's the highest ceiling of any team we've hit so far.
Washington Wizards: 45-1
7 of 14
It's hard to get away from the idea that the Washington Wizards were a half-decent bench away from the conference finals this year.
John Wall's combination of court vision and downhill transition blitzkriegs make him historically tough to handle, and Bradley Beal is fresh off a postseason marked by several takeover games and a 24.8-point scoring average.
Otto Porter should be back on a huge deal, and he'll bring his deadly three-point shot. Those three, combined with Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris, composed one of the top big-minute fivesomes in the league last year.
If Washington can find scrap-heap options to replace the unplayable Brandon Jennings and the defensively inept Bojan Bogdanovic, it's hard to see how it finishes lower than fourth in the East. And if Ian Mahinmi can rediscover any of the form he showed two years ago with the Pacers, watch out.
Finding viable role players on the cheap is difficult, but maybe now that Wall and Beal have shown their full capabilities on a playoff stage, there'll be more interest in joining up with this dangerous team.
Toronto Raptors: 40-1
8 of 14
Consider this a bet on the Toronto Raptors keeping Kyle Lowry.
Though spending big on a smaller point guard as he heads deeper into his 30s is a major long-term risk, Lowry remains critical to Toronto's contending in the near future. If he bolts in free agency, you can probably knock the Raps' odds down to (or below) the Bucks'.
Serge Ibaka has essentially agreed to an extension, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, which could make it easier for Toronto to move on from Jonas Valanciunas—whose conventional post game is losing value as we speak.
There are other free-agent issues to address. Patrick Patterson and PJ Tucker are both unrestricted.
Assuming Toronto either brings this group back or gets growth from Norman Powell, Delon Wright and Jakob Poeltl, we should expect another excellent regular season and a playoff trip that lasts at least two rounds.
There's risk here, of course. Lowry could fall off. Ibaka's athletic decline could accelerate. But on balance, Toronto is a stable top-four East team with a high floor.
Utah Jazz: 33-1
9 of 14
Giving the Utah Jazz odds this good might seem risky with Gordon Hayward and George Hill both ticketed for free agency.
The guess here is that Hayward sticks around on a max deal, while Hill bolts. Even without an excellent lead guard like Hill, the Jazz have enough youth and established talent to improve on last year's performance. And remember, Hill only played 49 games in 2016-17.
If he goes, it's not like the Jazz are losing their key cog.
Rudy Gobert is a perennial DPOY candidate; Derrick Favors and Alec Burks could get healthy; and the trio of Rodney Hood, Trey Lyles and Dante Exum should improve. If Utah wants to keep Joe Ingles, a restricted free agent, it could dump Boris Diaw's nonguaranteed deal and look to move either Burks or Favors.
There's a lot of flexibility here—and a lot of players with room to get significantly better.
Maybe the Jazz won't look quite the same next season, but they gutted their way to 51 wins despite rotten health. That victory total is beatable, even if a couple of important contributors move on.*
*Losing Hayward would be different, of course. If he bounces, Utah looks more like a .500 team, and its title odds take a serious hit.
Houston Rockets: 25-1
10 of 14
Anyone else intrigued to find out what Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey has in mind when he drops nuggets like this to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe? "We are used to long odds. If Golden State makes the odds longer, we might up our risk profile and get even more aggressive. We have something up our sleeve."
Something up your sleeve, Dork Elvis?
Is it a gratuitously funded lobbying effort to add a four-point line?
Biomechanical enhancements in James Harden's beard that magnetically attract swiping defenders' hands toward his face, leading to 50 free-throw attempts per game?
Hypnosis that brainwashes the entire roster into thinking the area inside the three-point line but outside the paint is hot lava?
Or, I don't know...maybe a big trade?
The Rockets don't need to perform magic to remain among this upper echelon of teams. They have the scoring goods, and another year under Mike D'Antoni could lead to an even deeper commitment to his effective offensive style.
Nene is the Rockets' only free agent of consequence, so you can lock them in for another 55 wins if they don't do anything unexpected.
If Morey gets creative, though, we might have to bump up Houston's title chances.
San Antonio Spurs: 15-1
11 of 14
With Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon headed for free agency (not to mention Tony Parker's quad injury costing him a chunk of next season), the San Antonio Spurs will have to re-tool to sustain their perennial excellence.
It's a good thing they've patented the practice of finding low-cost contributors to fill out a rotation.
Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Danny Green are still around. So is Pau Gasol, assuming he doesn't opt out of his deal, for what it's worth. Expect Dejounte Murray and Davis Bertans to become studs next year because they're on the Spurs.
That's a very good six-man rotation, one San Antonio will augment with cheap and capable help because, again, they're the Spurs.
Remember, San Antonio was waxing the Warriors before Kawhi Leonard sprained his ankle in Game 1 of the conference finals. That's not to say they would have won the series, but it's entirely possible they could have done what no other team did in the postseason: take a couple of games from the champs.
More broadly, we need to stop assuming the Spurs' run is going to come to an end at some point. It just never will.
Boston Celtics: 11-1
12 of 14
The Boston Celtics aren't a better team than the Spurs, but they have better championship odds for two reasons.
First, they have the means to dramatically improve their roster. Pricing in the potential impact of expected top pick Markelle Fultz or the acquisition of a major star via trade or free agency gives Boston far more room to get better.
Second, they're in the East.
Last year's top East seed should expect more than the 53 wins it logged in 2016-17, even if all it does is draft Fultz, watch Jaylen Brown take on a bigger role and develop its chemistry on both ends. Toronto and Washington can maintain their respective status quos, too, but Boston is the only team in that trio that should expect improvement if it does virtually nothing to bolster its personnel.
There's more organic growth potential here than on any other contending East team.
With that kind of certainty, maybe the Celtics won't open the war chest and reel in stars. But they could.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 4-1
13 of 14
Last year's Cavaliers were one of the most terrifying offensive teams in league history. The show they put on against the Warriors in the Finals was a high-level exhibition of scoring excellence.
And all it got them was a gentleman's sweep.
Still, the Cavs probably should have won Game 3, which could have pushed the series back to Cleveland for Game 6...at which point, who knows what might have happened?
LeBron James is the greatest player of all time (yeah, I'm ready to say it), Kyrie Irving is unstoppable when he's on, and the Cavs will be motivated to juice the roster after falling short partly because Golden State's reserves hammered Cleveland's whenever James sat.
A Kevin Love trade seems like the logical route to a shakeup, though it's hard to know what that might net the Cavs. Adding even one three-and-D wing would make a massive difference against a Warriors team loaded with them.
And yes, Cleveland's sole concern must be matching up with the Warriors. Its brisk jaunt through the East postseason bracket was proof enough of how little it has to fear in its own conference.
Golden State Warriors: 5-6
14 of 14
Kevin Durant is all but certain to return at a sub-max rate that will ensure retention of Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, and Stephen Curry is going to get a full max offer at the earliest juncture allowed, according to owner Joe Lacob's comments to Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News.
Iguodala hinted at the foregone conclusion of every significant free agent re-signing before the Finals even ended.
The core is intact.
It'd hurt to lose David West, Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee to retirement/larger offers elsewhere, but if you think other free-agent bigs won't be lining up to chase a ring with an overwhelming title favorite, you're fooling yourself.
These Warriors just completed a dominant 16-1 postseason run after amassing the fourth-highest Simple Rating in NBA history, per Basketball Reference. Even if everyone comes back, maybe it's unwise to expect that level of production.
Then again, who's to say replacements for departing big men won't be even better? And there's also the likelihood of rookies Patrick McCaw and Damian Jones taking strides in their sophomore seasons. Add in the benefit of improved chemistry in the second year of the Durant era, and you have a team that could repeat its historically dominant efforts.
It's wild to think about it this way, but if you have a choice between Golden State and the field, you should put your money on the Warriors.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
.png?w=600 "New Mock with Lottery Odds Locked In 🔮")