Road Map to the 2016 NBA Finals for All 30 Teams
You won't find a more refreshing point on the NBA calendar than where we're currently at.
Basketball is so close you can almost smell it and far enough away you don't actually smell it. It's the time when every fanbase can decide whether it dares to dream, and for those that do, it's a chance to plot the ideal course for the upcoming campaign.
We've taken the liberty of building those road maps for all 30 teams. Call us hopeless romantics, but we love supporting the idea that every club has a shot at the crown—even if we know all but a handful don't.
Some of these scenarios are straightforward and based entirely in reality. For others, we had to get a little creative and do our best Lloyd Christmas impression—yes, Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves fans, we are telling you there's a chance.
So join us as we bathe in the invigorating waters of unbridled optimism and guide each team to the 2016 world title.
Atlanta Hawks
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The Atlanta Hawks soared to 60 wins last season—and now they're already back flying under the radar.
The reason? There are two. They sputtered down the stretch (though injuries factored into that fall). And they lost starting small forward DeMarre Carroll in free agency and still haven't settled on a replacement.
But guess who the Hawks are returning: the NBA's first All-Star quartet since 2011. Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver tallied a combined 59.9 points, 21.6 rebounds and 15.9 assists a night last season. That's a ton of production, and it's all at the disposal of the reigning Coach of the Year, Mike Budenholzer.
The Hawks are still dangerous, even if Odds Shark thinks their wings have been clipped. Teague's best basketball should be in front of him, and Dennis Schroder's definitely is. Budenholzer understands exactly how to utilize his frontcourt starters and has several new toys to play with, including former champion Tiago Splitter and perimeter gunner Tim Hardaway Jr.
Plotting the Hawks' path to the 2016 crown requires no suspension of disbelief. If their shooters heat up at the right time, there's enough two-way talent here to score a pair of upsets in the final two playoff rounds.
Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics can take two different paths to the 2016 championship, both involving masterful coaching jobs by Brad Stevens (which already feels like a given).
The first is laughing in the face of everyone who's ever claimed it's possible to have too much of a good thing. So what if the Celtics have a busload of undersized guards and as many as eight options to fill the 4 and 5 spots?
Think outside the box and indulge in some blind sanguineness, people. Those don't have to be roster redundancies; think of them as opportunities for creativity.
This roster might be light on well-rounded talent, but it's overloaded with specialists: stoppers, slashers, snipers, scorers, stretch bigs, setup men and shot-blockers. If a few of their vets can roll back the clock (we're looking at you, David Lee and Amir Johnson) and some of these prospects can hasten their development (just pretend it's summer league, Marcus Smart), the Celtics should have a player for every role.
The other option is right in president of basketball operations Danny Ainge's wheelhouse. "Trader Danny" could pull from his mountain of draft picks and prospects to facilitate a blockbuster deal. If any star hits the trade market (DeMarcus Cousins?), Ainge has enough ammunition to at least start a conversation.
Stevens turned a collection of role players into a pesky playoff team last season. If he gets more talent, Celtics fans should kick back and enjoy the ride.
Brooklyn Nets
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You can't spell Brooklyn without "Brook." And you can't construct a championship scenario for the Brooklyn Nets—even a wildly unrealistic one—without the best campaign of Brook Lopez's career.
At this point, everyone has a good grasp on the 27-year-old's scouting report. He's an absurdly gifted scorer from the mid-range to the low block but has trouble staying healthy and doesn't always rebound. But here's the thing: He hasn't missed a game since Dec. 21, and he was a top-20 glass-cleaner after the All-Star break last season.
Perceptions are changing, and not only with Lopez.
Once their attempts to purchase a title failed, the Nets prioritized youth and athleticism. The average age of their players is 27.5, according to RealGM, identical to the reigning-champion Warriors. That new blood should pump some needed energy into Brooklyn, and this group still has coffin-closer Joe Johnson around for when the lights get too bright for the youngsters.
If the Nets are anywhere near contention, that will mean that Thaddeus Young is leaving his fingerprints all over the box score and Jarrett Jack has embraced the life of a pass-first point guard. Give Rondae Hollis-Jefferson some offense, Bojan Bogdanovic some defense and Thomas Robinson some consistency, and Brooklyn could find that success doesn't have to carry an exorbitant price tag.
Charlotte Hornets
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Think of the Charlotte Hornets as the NBA's contrarians.
While everyone else is downsizing, the Hornets are getting bigger. They have 6'8" Nicolas Batum penciled in as the starting shooting guard, while 7-footers Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky are set to battle for the opening 4 spot. Charlotte has added some needed perimeter shooting, but its offense runs through Al Jefferson on the low block.
This might be a copycat league, but going against the grain can be a savvy strategy. That will be the foundation for the Hornets' miraculous title run.
There's enough athleticism between Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller to stop small-ball attacks, and their size will pay major dividends the other way. Batum will not only rebound from an injury-riddled 2014-15 campaign but look more like a star than he ever did in Portland. Jefferson will regain his 2013-14 All-NBA form, Kemba Walker will find efficiency with less on his plate, and Kaminsky will drop daggers from distance.
Add in a leap year from Jeremy Lamb or P.J. Hairston, exceeded expectations for Jeremy Lin and some Spencer Hawes signs of life, and an unlikely contender will be born in the Tar Heel State.
Chicago Bulls
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Broken-record time, Windy City fans: The Chicago Bulls' road to glory starts with getting Derrick Rose healthy.
The former MVP, who's played just 100 of a possible 312 games the past four seasons, is back on the injury report. He caught an errant elbow during Tuesday's practice and suffered an orbital fracture.
This shouldn't be a major setback. He's expected to resume basketball activities in two weeks.
Still, Rose has to deal with the mental side of another health-related absence. And the Bulls already have a starter on the shelf, with small forward Mike Dunleavy recovering from recent back surgery.
That's a long-winded way of saying health—once again—holds the keys to Chicago's season. Take injuries out of the equation, and the Bulls have a championship-level rotation. You won't find a deeper frontcourt anywhere, and the Rose-Jimmy Butler tandem is among the league's most talented guard combos.
Ideally, new head coach Fred Hoiberg will add some pep to this offense, and the team will defend at a level that makes former skipper Tom Thibodeau proud. Butler needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke, Rose must show his rough 2014-15 campaign was an anomaly, and two of the following three prospects have to be consistent contributors: Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Doug McDermott.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' blueprint is simple: Experience last season and...that's it.
The talent is obviously in place to anchor a title run, and their chemistry should be exponentially better this time around, based on what they endured together.
They brought three prominent stars together (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love) and tried to balance their egos, personalities and touches on the fly. They broke in a rookie head coach (David Blatt). They acquired three major rotation pieces midseason (Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert) and eventually lost three opening-night starters to injury (Irving, Love and Anderson Varejao).
They also suffered just two losses while steamrolling through their side of the bracket and finished two wins shy of the franchise's first championship. They have ample room for internal growth and a sufficient amount of external assistance in the form of newcomers Mo Williams, Richard Jefferson and Sasha Kaun.
Oh, and they have a fired-up James, who's anxious to expand his jewelry collection.
"I have no time to waste," James told USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "My ultimate goal is to win a championship, and it starts now."
Dallas Mavericks
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Dirk Nowitzki deserves another chance to add a second title to his legacy. His reward for taking a colossal pay cut—his $8.3 million salary ranks 91st overall—should be so much sweeter than a slew of first-round exits.
The Dallas Mavericks have tried to get him help. Maybe the basketball gods can chip in to elevate his supporting cast.
Wesley Matthews (torn Achilles) and Chandler Parsons (knee surgery) both have to get healthy quickly. But more than that, they need to play above their previous levels. Matthews has to keep his three-and-D skills sharp but must also become more of a self-sufficient scorer. Parsons needs to emerge as a primary scorer and playmaker.
Even for this exercise, we won't ask for the old Deron Williams, who used to challenge Chris Paul's point guard throne (we have our limits). But he has to snap a two-year slide in player efficiency rating and pull his plummeting field-goal percentage back to at least mediocrity. Someone has to claim the center spot (please let it be JaVale McGee), and Justin Anderson can't play like a rookie.
Nowitzki has his own challenge: to prove the only thing that ages remotely as well as wine is a 7-footer with a feathery shooting stroke.
Denver Nuggets
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What does every rebuilding team desperately desire? A fast-forward button.
That could be an apt description of rookie Emmanuel Mudiay. But for the Denver Nuggets to leap from the lottery to the limelight, they'll need the explosive point guard to not only run away with the Rookie of the Year award but actually claim one of the hotly contested backcourt spots on the Western Conference All-Star team.
And that's just the beginning.
Danilo Gallinari's star-caliber stretches (18.6 points per game after the All-Star break) must become regular sightings. Kenneth Faried should better resemble an $11 million player. Wilson Chandler can stay in his jack-of-all-trades role, as long as he masters a few. And someone should (carefully) explain to Bosnian banger Jusuf Nurkic that he could stand to add five-to-10 percentage points to his field-goal rate.
New Nuggets coach Michael Malone has his work cut out for him trying to fix their 26th-ranked defense, but at least that's his specialty. If the skipper can locate Gary Harris' missing jump shot, you could be looking at a Coach of the Year lock.
Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons struggled enough last season that we'll need a few pitchers of hope to help map out this route.
But there is one piece of reality that should stir up some positive vibes. During the 688 minutes Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson shared the floor last season, Detroit outscored opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions. Extrapolate that over the entire campaign, and it would have been the league's fifth-best net efficiency rating.
There's obviously good chemistry between the pair, who currently stand as the franchise's two most important players. And rookie Stanley Johnson is rapidly closing in on that conversation, having already turned heads at both summer league and training camp.
That trio needs to demand recognition as the NBA's newest Big Three. Given its dearth of shooting, the Pistons have to find several snipers around them. There is no shortage of candidates—Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Anthony Tolliver—but that quantity must produce quality.
Executive Stan Van Gundy has built a roster that looks like the kind coach Stan Van Gundy likes. Maybe this can be a magical year for the Motor City, especially if Aron Baynes has any pixie dust left from his days with the San Antonio Spurs.
Golden State Warriors
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It's tempting to boil the Golden State Warriors' mantra down to three words: Don't change anything. But the process isn't that simple.
This roster should get a round of vaccinations to combat Pat Riley's infamous "disease of more." Once those are completed, then the Dubs can get back to retracing all of last season's steps.
There is no real way to trump their accomplishments. Technically, there's a tiny bit of wiggle room, but some of the more outlandish scenarios in this article have better odds than the Dubs topping their 2014-15 campaign. They tied for the sixth-most wins and had the eighth-highest point differential in NBA history. That was once-in-a-generation dominance.
But Golden State should still use it to measure success and has reasons to believe that progress is possible. This is a young core: Starters Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes are all 25 years old or younger. It's also coach Steve Kerr's second year at the helm, and the second offseason for the team to learn his system.
The Warriors lost David Lee and assistant coach Alvin Gentry over the summer but added Jason Thompson and landed two-time MVP Steve Nash as a player development consultant.
Defending a title is never easy, but this remains one of the NBA's on-paper juggernauts.
Houston Rockets
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It's getting far too easy to fall in love with the Houston Rockets' supporting cast. For all the attention general manager Daryl Morey has received for his superstar obsession, his work along the margins has been wildly effective.
Sure, it helps having James Harden and Dwight Howard form a powerful one-two punch. And if the Rockets are going to escape from the West and reunite with the Larry O'Brien NBA Championship Trophy after more than two decades apart, their stars will have the biggest say in that success.
"If Harden can maintain his standing among the top five players in the league and Howard can give them 2,000 minutes and a healthy playoffs, they can go all the way," wrote SB Nation's Paul Flannery.
But Houston's role players—and the way coach Kevin McHale manages them—will be a significant subplot in this story.
Regardless if newcomer Ty Lawson or veteran Patrick Beverley gets the starting nod, they have to manufacture a two-headed monster at the point. Trevor Ariza must maintain his still-elite defense and rediscover his shooting touch. There doesn't have to be a winner in the Terrence Jones-Donatas Motiejunas battle as long as there isn't a loser, and the prospects have to bring a steady supply of energy.
Indiana Pacers
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Offense is the ruling power in today's pace-and-space NBA. Last season, 12 of the top 13 teams in offensive efficiency secured a playoff berth. Conversely, four of the 13 defensive leaders failed to qualify for the big dance.
We can bet Indiana Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird has seen those numbers. He spent his offseason hatching a plan to turn his old immovable object into an unstoppable force. Given the league's changing climate, it seems like the right strategy to have.
"I think it gives us a chance to again, change the East, gives us a chance to play faster, to play a funner, better brand of basketball," Paul George said, via Michael Marot of the Associated Press. "... I think we've got a real shot at being in the top three in the East."
But why stop there? Why can't George reclaim his elite status and (perhaps begrudgingly) wreak havoc as a small-ball 4? Why can't blond George Hill be the best George Hill we've ever seen? Why can't Myles Turner blossom as a floor-spacing, shot-blocking Rookie of the Year candidate? Why can't Monta Ellis find more efficiency to go with his volume production?
Why can't the Pacers be even better as a scoring machine than they were as a stone-wall defense? That's a question head coach Frank Vogel has to answer.
Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers might not have had enough bodies to take a similar photo last season. If they did, most of their reserves would've needed name tags.
Somehow, both of the following things are true. Jamal Crawford was the second-best scoring substitute at 15.8 points per game. The Clippers bench, which featured Crawford, averaged the seventh-fewest points at 29.7, according to Hoops Stats.
The roster pleaded for a second-team overhaul, and president of basketball operations Doc Rivers bought one on a budget. Now when coach Doc Rivers needs some fresh legs, he can call upon the likes of Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, Wesley Johnson (or Paul Pierce), Pablo Prigioni and Cole Aldrich.
That's what the Clippers have been missing. When Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan shared the floor last season, they thrashed opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions. If they can keep their gas tanks a little fuller—Paul, Griffin and Jordan all averaged 34-plus minutes—they might finally have the formula for that elusive postseason triumph.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Let me slide on my purple-and-gold tinted glasses for this one. Kobe Bryant, Kobe Bryant, ringzzzzz... Whoa, sorry about that. Those things are powerful.
Where should we start? Might as well look where the glasses pointed and tip off with the Mamba.
If there's any "realistic" chance for the Los Angeles Lakers to go NBA Hollywood and spin the ultimate underdog story, Bryant has to make us forget about the past two seasons. It's not even so much about the injuries as it is the rancid shooting numbers (37.8%/28.5%). Fix the efficiency, find something close to the 2012-13 volume (27.3 points, 6.0 assists) and we might be on to something.
To keep the dream alive, all three of L.A.'s draft picks will hit. D'Angelo Russell will pace rookies in points and assists. Larry Nance Jr. will race around like a headless chicken, only one who defends like a madman, controls the glass and crushes highlight dunks. Second-rounder Anthony Brown will emerge as the draft's biggest steal with a polished set of three-and-D skills.
Jordan Clarkson will pick up where he left off last season, and Julius Randle will hit the hardwood like he's making up for lost time. Lou Williams and Nick Young will simultaneously learn the difference between a shot and a good shot. Roy Hibbert will lift his field-goal percentage back to an acceptable level. And the new analytics team will help explain the value of the long ball to head coach Byron Scott.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Grit-and-grind: It sounds like a boxing style, which makes sense since the Memphis Grizzlies seem to wear out opponents with straight jabs and body blows.
What could lead this team to a title? The same approach that's carried it to 202 victories against 110 losses over the past four seasons (.647 winning percentage), with a few minor tweaks.
The Grizzlies need nightly appearances by the aggressive Marc Gasol, the one who averaged 20.2 points over the first 30 games last season. And they need Mike Conley to fight the big guy for the spotlight. If Memphis can consistently frighten defenses from the point guard and center spots, it will give Zach Randolph more room underneath and ideally improve this three-point attack.
About that perimeter shooting: Something's gotta give. Having the pre-All-Star break Courtney Lee (44.8 three-point percentage) all season would do wonders for this offense. But getting consistency from Jeff Green and an unexpected boost from someone like Jordan Adams or Jarnell Stokes could be just as critical.
It's not about reinventing the wheel in Memphis. The Grizzlies just need a little extra firepower to keep themselves from getting bogged down in the mud.
Miami Heat
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It's OK to say it; "The Godfather" Pat Riley already has. On paper, the Miami Heat look like contenders.
Just look at the names: Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. Now, look at the numbers: 84.7 points, 29.2 rebounds and 13.5 assists between them last season.
It's hard to find a weak link there. Deng might be the popular answer, but he's a two-time All-Star and former All-Defensive selection. Some might say Whiteside because of his shaky track record, but he averaged 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks as a starter last season—marks that no one posted on a nightly basis.
If healthy, and that's obviously a massive if, this starting five should be among the NBA's best. And the bench has an interesting (albeit unpredictable) blend of prospects (Justise Winslow, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson) and vets (Amar'e Stoudemire, Gerald Green, Josh McRoberts, Mario Chalmers).
Things could go south in a hurry. As Grantland's Zach Lowe put it, the Heat seem "vulnerable to age, injury, poor shooting, shaky defense and the whims of a combustible center who flamed out everywhere else."
But Riles likes what he sees, and his resume says we should respect his opinion.
Milwaukee Bucks
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The championship challenge is simple for Milwaukee Bucks coach Jason Kidd: If he makes the same kind of impact as he did last season, this group should have no problem contending.
During his first year on the job, he improved Milwaukee's win total by 26 victories (41, up from 15) and orchestrated a rapid rise from 29th to second in defensive efficiency. Enjoy another 26-win climb, and the Bucks would have as many as the Warriors did during their title run (67).
With his defense already at a championship level, Kidd now needs to apply his Midas touch to their 25th-ranked offense.
He has more help than before. Greg Monroe and his steady servings of 15-plus points (four years running) arrived in free agency. Jabari Parker, who averaged 19.1 points during his lone season at Duke, is back after being shelved with a torn ACL in December. Newcomers Greivis Vasquez, Rashad Vaughn and Chris Copeland should all add some perimeter punch.
The Bucks have a suffocating collection of length and athleticism. It's unpolished, light on outside shooting and probably not ready for the bright lights, but who thought the Bucks were playoff-ready entering last season? Bet against Kidd at your own risk.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Using last season as our guide, the Minnesota Timberwolves would need an additional 29 victories to enter the playoff race. Is that type of leap even possible in the NBA? Sure it is; the Cavs bumped their win total by 26 the last time around.
Granted, Cleveland added LeBron James, Kevin Love and a host of effective role players both before and during that run. But the Timberwolves have been busy since the last time we saw them, adding top pick Karl-Anthony Towns, 2015 Euroleague MVP Nemanja Bjelica, national champion Tyus Jones and a handful of battle-scarred veterans.
If we're putting the Timberpups in the Finals, then we're handing Towns the Rookie of the Year and creating a Sophomore of the Year award just to recognize Andrew Wiggins' two-way brilliance. We're prepared to spend the entire season with our jaws dropped because of Zach LaVine's slams, Ricky Rubio's dimes and Kevin Garnett's ageless anchoring of a defense.
We'll promise to pay closer attention to Euroleague, because the competition level must be crazy-high if Bjelica makes the NBA jump look so seamless. We'll tell anyone who listens we never lost faith in Shabazz Muhammad when everyone else draped him in red flags. We'll wonder why we ever wanted the Wolves to field offers for Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic when both remain healthy and wildly productive.
We will also know this isn't a dream, but avoid any and all pinching just to be safe.
New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans have a puncher's chance at the crown, because they might already have the league's best knockout artist.
There are other, double-browed reasons to like the Pelicans. If their roster could ever stay healthy, it has some very intriguing pieces. The combination of head coach Alvin Gentry and lead assistant Darren Erman should give New Orleans a genius-level mind for both sides of the ball.
But let's be real: The Pelicans will be championship-ready whenever Anthony Davis is. And judging by his recent work, he's incredibly close already.
He only turns 23 in March and has just three big league years under his belt. But last season, he posted the highest player efficiency rating recorded by anyone other than Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan and LeBron James (30.8). Davis also produced the second-most win shares per 48 minutes (.274).
New Orleans' banner-raising blueprint will begin with a bulked-up, three-point-launching Davis bulldozing his way to MVP honors. Ryan Anderson will stay healthy enough to capture the Sixth Man of the Year, and Gentry will brilliantly balance the minutes and touches between Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon.
For icing on the cake, New Orleans will laugh at everyone who mocked Omer Asik's new deal when Erman constructs a top-10 defense around the 7-footer.
New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks lost a franchise-worst 65 games last season, then failed to attract a top-shelf free agent. But there's some parallel universe where that doesn't necessarily mean they failed to find quick solutions to their problems.
For starters, they're getting a healthy Carmelo Anthony back. He might not be a perfect leader by any stretch, but he is an eight-time All-Star with the fourth-highest career scoring average among active players (25.2 points per game). The Knicks' 29th-ranked offense desperately needs a focal point.
But with the rivers of optimism overflowing, New York could have two No. 1 options: Melo and rookie Kristaps Porzingis.
The sweet-shooting 20-year-old has a ceiling like few others; Hall of Famer James Worthy called him "a combination of Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant," via Marc Berman of the New York Post. If the Knicks are going to make their move sooner rather than later, Porzingis has to validate his glowing scouting reports out of the gate.
Jerian Grant, Arron Afflalo and Langston Galloway must plug the holes on the defensive perimeter, and Robin Lopez needs to provide extra insurance on the back line. The Knicks must find they have hidden gems in Kyle O'Quinn and Kevin Seraphin, and get surprisingly strong play from Cleanthony Early and/or Derrick Williams.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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The last time Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka were all healthy, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 60 games (2012-13). Westbrook missed 36 outings the following year, and OKC still managed to reel off 59 victories.
Expectations are rightfully sky-high in the Sooner State.
KD's last healthy campaign saw him capture MVP honors and post a career-high scoring mark (32.0 points per game). While he nursed a nagging foot problem last season, Westbrook delivered the strongest season of his career, joining LeBron, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only players to ever average 28 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.
OKC's star-studded duo has never looked stronger, and this roster has never been deeper. Lottery pick Cameron Payne and former first-rounder Mitch McGary could be pressed for playing time, because there are so many capable bodies in front of them.
With their stars healthy and now under the direction of new head coach Billy Donovan, the Thunder are perfectly positioned to reclaim their place as two-way elites. If they can avoid the injury bug, the worst thing that happens this season might be not deciding beforehand if they were planning to smile in the picture above.
Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic laid out the full range of their ambitions with a single hire. By handing their coaching reins to Scott Skiles, they told the basketball world, "We're ready to mine our natural defensive resources and compete for a low-level playoff berth."
It's not the most intimidating (or inspiring) rally cry, but it's honest. Orlando has a slew of young athletes who could become great defenders with the right guidance. And this franchise really wants a playoff run to legitimize the progress of its post-Dwight Howard rebuild.
Skiles' resume suggests that's a reasonable request, provided the plans don't go any further. He's turned young teams into good ones, but he's never elevated a good one to greatness. So, imagination is a must for helping the Magic book a Finals trip.
Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton must bully their way into the NBA's best backcourt debate on the strength of their defense alone, then draw some support by discovering an outside shot. Aaron Gordon has to prove his summer league breakout was only the beginning. Mario Hezonja must display the reason for his supreme confidence. Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris both have to secure the All-Star spots they've been in shouting distance of the past season or two.
Skiles can get the ball rolling, but it's on these players to...well...work their magic.
Philadelphia 76ers
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This one's tough. How do you build a winning scenario for an organization that doesn't yet have an interest in winning?
My first thought is Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie's outsmarting rival executives like he's done in trades for years. The strategy isn't finished yet, but it involves whispers about a work stoppage, followed by what looks like an official league memo. The Sixers would be the only ones who show up for the season opener, everyone else would be disqualified, and Hinkie would get his ring without sacrificing picks or prospects.
To be honest, the on-court scenarios seem almost as absurd, but let's give it a shot.
Jahlil Okafor's thick frame, catcher's mitt hands and old-school scoring skills will be too much for this small-ball league to handle. He'll be unstoppable in the low post and simplify things for his teammates by consistently collapsing the defense. His own stopping skills will be far better than advertised, as his 7'5" wingspan will help compensate for any athletic limitations.
Nerlens Noel will continue wreaking havoc defensively and finally show improvement with his totally rebuilt shooting form. Robert Covington and Nik Stauskas will become the East's most prolific three-point tandem. The good Tony Wroten will come to play every night, and Pierre Jackson will look like D-League Pierre Jackson on a semi-regular basis.
Now that both options are laid out, I'm thinking someone should start designing that memo.
Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns are dangerously close to being stuck in the NBA's dreaded middle. They've missed the playoffs each of the past five seasons, winning a decidedly mediocre 47 percent of their games.
They have to find a way out, and they just might have it in budding backcourt stars Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. They hardly shared the floor after teaming up at the trade deadline (11 games together), and when they did it wasn't good (4-7). But they're both coming off strong statistical seasons and presumably still climbing toward their respective peaks.
If you're buying the Suns as contenders for any reason, you're probably doing it because of these guards.
But this isn't a two-man team. Tyson Chandler is getting $52 million to help fix the Suns' 17th-ranked defense and help bring promising center Alex Len along. There are new shooters everywhere, including lottery pick Devin Booker, and sophomore T.J. Warren could be closing in on a breakout. Even Markieff Morris says he's happy, which at the very least should give Phoenix better leverage in a potential trade.
A lot has to go right to pull the Suns out of this cycle. But there are many different ways for this group to improve internally and externally.
Portland Trail Blazers
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Life comes at you quickly. Just ask Damian Lillard, the lone starter left from the Portland Trail Blazers' 51-win team.
"We're back at that stage where nothing is expected of us," Lillard said, via Anne M. Peterson of the Associated Press.
Nothing should be expected. A lot of this rotation will be occupied by players filling bigger roles than ever before.
But mystery can be a good thing.
There might not be a right way to defend a Lillard-C.J. McCollum backcourt. Noah Vonleh could live up to his old Chris Bosh comparisons. There's Most Improved Player potential with Maurice Harkless, Ed Davis and Mason Plumlee. Who knows, even Cliff Alexander could look more like the top prospect coming out of high school and not the fading one who left Kansas.
Sacramento Kings
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DeMarcus Cousins and George Karl are friends now, right? Or getting there, at least.
That was an odd, uncomfortable beef from the start, but at least the Sacramento Kings didn't run their 25-year-old franchise face out of town.
"Cousins is absurdly talented—skilled, quick and strong with great touch and good court sense," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes. "He can shoot it from just about anywhere inside the three-point line, rebounds everything he gets near and simply can't be single-covered down low."
In other words, he's not a guy you let go; he's someone you build a (hypothetical) championship team around.
Cousins needs a steady running mate, but he might have one in Rudy Gay. The scoring forward fit perfectly in Karl's offense, averaging 23.9 points on 47.9/39.2/84.1 percent shooting during their 20 games together. Gay's size and athleticism allows Karl to experiment, and he'll concoct some intriguing frontcourt combos with Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos and Caron Butler added to the fold.
The backcourt has more question marks, but let's explore the infinitesimal possibility that all are answered in the affirmative. Karl will strike the right balance to keep Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison productive and engaged. Ben McLemore will take another sizable step forward. And Seth Curry will have a handful of outbursts that make (very) casual fans wonder when the Kings got Stephen Curry.
San Antonio Spurs
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There are perennial contenders in sports, and then there are the San Antonio Spurs. Last season was their 16th consecutive 50-win campaign, and that streak would be even longer if not for the 1998-99 lockout.
Their presence in the championship race has become automatic, and they look as fierce as ever. The Alamo City skies feature a new star in LaMarcus Aldridge, a rapidly rising one in Kawhi Leonard and a third that refuses to fade in Tim Duncan.
"The rich get richer," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "... They're bringing the most sought-after free agent of the summer to a strong unit. Once again, the Spurs are sitting in their usual front-row seat in the championship picture."
The Spurs sacrificed some depth to land Aldridge, but they made savvy signings in keeping Danny Green and adding David West. Given their history with player development, you almost expect them to find some hidden gems among Jimmer Fredette, Ray McCallum, Kyle Anderson and Boban Marjanovic.
But San Antonio's chances boil down to two things: health and the play of Tony Parker. If the veteran point guard can serve as an efficient head of the snake, the Spurs have more than enough to secure their sixth world title.
Toronto Raptors
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It's easy to whittle down a discussion of the Toronto Raptors' offseason to their work on the defensive end. That's clearly where they needed the most help and where they invested their resources: $60 million for DeMarre Carroll, $30 million for Cory Joseph, $6 million for Bismack Biyombo, the No. 20 pick on Delon Wright.
Maybe that's enough to move Toronto into legitimate title talks. The Raptors had an elite offense last season, and they're returning four of their top five scorers.
All of that said, if the Raptors are telling me how they spent their summer vacation, I don't want to hear about the defense. Let's talk skinny Kyle Lowry and what exactly the new look of the Raptors' best player means.
"This skinny version of Lowry isn't notable just because it's new," wrote CBS Sports' James Herbert. "If it means he can sustain his level of play from early last season, it could completely change Toronto's fortunes."
Lowry averaged 20.5 points and 7.7 assists over his first 31 games, and the Raptors opened the season 24-7. They both eventually limped to their second disappointing first-round exit in a row. Keeping Lowry healthy is key, as is coaxing a career year out of Jonas Valanciunas and getting more consistency from DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross.
Utah Jazz
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The Utah Jazz don't look much different than they did in April. The point guard position is still a giant question mark, even more so now with Dante Exum lost to a torn ACL. This offense will likely still encounter issues with perimeter shooting and floor spacing.
And yet it's entirely possible to plot a championship path even with those faults in mind. The Jazz aren't built to win with defense; they're set to dominate that side of the ball.
Rudy Gobert might already be the league's most impactful interior defender. He yielded last season's lowest field-goal percentage at the rim, ranked second in block percentage and tied for sixth in rebounding percentage. He's a mobile 7-footer with a 7'9" wingspan and is every bit as terrifying as that sounds.
His frontcourt partner, Derrick Favors, more than holds his own as a rim protector. Utah has great size with 6'8" wings Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood. The 6'6" Exum could have completed that puzzle, but head coach Quin Snyder could use 6'6" Alec Burks (a natural shooting guard) to fill that last spot.
Utah flashed tremendous potential late last season, going 19-10 and easily leading the league in defensive efficiency after the All-Star break. If Hayward, Favors and Gobert can throw their hats in the All-Star ring, Burks and Hood can handle the perimeter scoring and rookie Trey Lyles adds spacing to the frontcourt, the Jazz could shock the world.
Washington Wizards
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I'm not sure if you've heard, but the Washington Wizards lost Paul Pierce over the summer and need a replacement stretch 4.
That term has become one of the most popular in the District, and there's a good reason for that. Any offense that wants to maximize John Wall's dribble drives and Marcin Gortat's crashes to the basket must be able to space the floor. Pierce helped do that in the playoffs, and the Wizards bumped their offensive output by 1.5 points per 100 possessions from the regular season.
But Washington's key to contention isn't the 4-spot or anywhere in the frontcourt. Wall and Bradley Beal have to be superstars, the league's best backcourt tandem and a constant source of quantity-plus-quality production. Both are trending in the right direction, but there's another level to reach. Wall still has to improve his ball control, while Beal must maintain his aggressiveness.
The Wizards could look dramatically different. The long ball will almost certainly be more featured in their offense, and they'll want to pick up the pace. Otto Porter should be a fixture in the rotation, and finding minutes for tantalizing rookie Kelly Oubre could be beneficial to both parties.
But all of these changes will only be as good as the guards who help implement them. If there's a title run to be had in D.C., it will follow the footsteps of Wall and Beal.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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