Previewing the 20 Biggest Names on the 2015 NBA Free-Agent Market
Come July 1, NBA teams will have no shortage of game-changing talent upon which to bid in the free-agent market.
From former Most Valuable Players and Finals MVPs to multi-time NBA champions and All-Stars, a bidding war should erupt for multiple stars. With a number of major-market teams flush with cap space, no fewer than 10 free agents could wind up signing max contracts, and many second-tier players figure to be in line for hefty paydays too.
Which free agents stand out most among their peers? Based on recent production on both ends of the court, age and projected future value, certain superstars and soon-to-be studs rise to the top of the free-agent crop.
When the madness kicks off at the start of July, expect the following 20 players to be at the forefront of general managers' wish lists.
This includes players set for unrestricted free agency (UFA), restricted free agency (RFA) and those with player options.
Unlikely to Opt Out
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All five of the following players could become free agents if they decline their player options by June 29. For one reason or another, however, all five are unlikely to do so, which excludes them from consideration here.
Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
Ellis won't lack motivation to opt out, as he's set to only earn about $8.7 million in 2015-16. Given the number of teams that figure to have $10-plus million of cap space this summer, he'd be a near-lock to increase his salary if he does decide to join the free-agent market.
However, Ellis hinted at the possibility of declining to opt out during an appearance on The Ben and Skin Show on 105.3 The Fan back in October, per Bryan Gutierrez of MavsOutsider.com. He said, "I'm a Dallas Maverick for the next two years and hopefully throughout the rest of my career." If he did decide to decline his player option, however, he'd be somewhere between the 14th- and 16th-biggest name on the free-agent market.
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Few players in the league protect the paint as well as Hibbert, who ranks fourth in opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim among those who face at least five such shots per game. He's become the king of "verticality" in recent years, so much so that the NBA issued a point-of-emphasis memo to referees last March detailing how to call such plays.
Though his rim protection is second-to-none, Hibbert could struggle to find suitors who are willing to match his $15.5 million salary for 2015-16 due to his offensive regression over the past season-and-a-half. Instead, he's likely to give it a go with this Pacers core one last time—including returning forward Paul George—before hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2016.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
D-Wade signed a two-year deal with a player option last summer, ensuring he'd have flexibility to leave South Beach if things went south in the post-LeBron James era. Instead, team president Pat Riley has once again worked his magic, scooping Hassan Whiteside off the scrap heap and acquiring Goran Dragic just minutes before the trade deadline.
Though Chris Bosh is out for the year due to blood clots on his lung, the Heat appear poised to make some noise in the Eastern Conference next year. With $16.125 million owed to him in 2015-16, Wade shouldn't feel much temptation to decline his player option and test the free-agent market.
Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans
With point guard Jrue Holiday currently sidelined due to a stress reaction in his lower right leg, Gordon has emerged as a reliable backcourt contributor for New Orleans. He'll never live up to the four-year max deal he signed in the summer of 2012, but his recent exemplary play is helping put a few lost years behind him.
Due to his lengthy injury history, it's difficult to imagine Gordon finding a free-agent suitor who is willing to exceed his $15.5 million salary in 2015-16. Accordingly, he figures to opt in and continue building off his strong play next year, setting himself up for a big payday in the summer of 2016.
Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
Last August, Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler speculated Jefferson could choose to opt out of his deal if he "posts another All-Star worthy campaign" like he did in 2013-14, "if only to cash in again." However, the big man went from averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 boards in 2013-14 to 17.2 and 8.7, respectively, this season.
Given the players' union's unwillingness to agree on cap "smoothing," the salary cap figures to skyrocket by upward of $20 million following the 2015-16 season. It makes more financial sense for Jefferson to accept his $13.5 million player option next year and play out his contract before cashing in during the summer of 2016.
Honorable Mentions
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The following four players just missed the cut based on their recent production, age and projected future value. All four figure to have no shortage of suitors on the free-agent market; however, they just failed to crack the top 20.
Arron Afflalo, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (Player Option)
One year ago, coming off a season in which he averaged 18.2 points per game while shooting 42.7 percent from three-point range, Afflalo looked bound for a fat payday in the summer of 2015. The unshakable stink of the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets rubbed off on Afflalo, though, causing him to plummet back to earth this season.
Though he'll have a shot to compete for a championship with Portland, his off-the-bench role figures to somewhat depreciate his free-agent value. He'll need to revert to his smothering defensive ways to justify a team paying top dollar for him as a three-and-D option this summer.
Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee Bucks (RFA)
Bleacher Report's Michael Pina recently dubbed Middleton the league's most underrated player, and it's easy to see why. As Pina noted, the Bucks are "never better on both ends than when Middleton is on the floor," as his team-high net rating of plus-8.9 suggests.
The versatile third-year forward is a weapon on both ends of the court, which has Bucksketball's Jeremy Schmidt expecting him to command an offer in the $10 million-per-year range this summer. Given his age (23) and three-and-D potential—he's a career 40.6 percent shooter from deep—Middleton could wind up being one of the bigger under-the-radar free agents in July.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks (UFA)
Carroll is the least-heralded member of the Hawks' starting five, but his lack of an All-Star Game berth doesn't make him any less integral to what Atlanta is accomplishing this season. While Kyle Korver bombs away from deep and Paul Millsap and Al Horford dominate the post, Carroll is the one tasked with shutting down each opponent's top offensive threat.
Like Middleton, Carroll figures to be one of the more underrated three-and-D options on the free-agent market this summer, having knocked down 37.6 percent of his 484 three-point attempts over the past two seasons. He's set for a huge raise as a free agent after making just $2.4 million this year.
Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (RFA)
While Kanter "was a clumsy fit in Utah, he fits like a hand in a glove with the core in Oklahoma City," RealGM.com's Jonathan Tjarks wrote following the trade deadline. He gives the Thunder a badly needed interior scorer, which only figures to open things up further for Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Co.
Instead of being forced to compete for minutes with rising second-year stud Rudy Gobert in Utah, Kanter will have the chance to strut his stuff as the Thunder chase a playoff berth over the season's final two months. His defensive limitations put a cap on his free-agent value, but a number of teams figure to lust after him in restricted free agency due to his offensive ability.
20. Danny Green, SG
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Age: 27
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 PTS, 4.6 REB, 1.9 AST, 2.3 3PM, .423 FG%, 15.5 PER
Had Ray Allen not broken the San Antonio Spurs' souls with his unforgettable last-second three-pointer in Game 6 of the 2013 Finals, Danny Green very well could have walked out of AmericanAirlines Arena with the Finals MVP award in tow.
Under the tutelage of head coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs development staff, Green has transformed into a legitimate two-way threat over the past few seasons. The UNC product banged home an NBA-record 27 triples during that 2013 Finals series against LeBron James and the defending-champion Miami Heat, breaking Ray Allen's former record (22).
Though Green may never match his 55.1 percent shooting from deep during that series, he did knock down a preposterous 47.5 percent of his 101 treys in the 2014 playoffs on the way to his first NBA title. Over the past four years, he's drilled 41.6 percent of his looks from downtown while attempting 4.8 such shots per game.
Green's value isn't just limited to his three-point shooting, though. Opponents are shooting 2.8 percentage points below their average when matched up against him this season, and the Spurs give up 4.7 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the floor rather than on the bench.
For a former second-round pick whom the Cleveland Cavaliers and Spurs each waived at one point, Green's transformation into a reliable three-and-D player is remarkable. He's not likely to command anywhere near a max contract in free agency, but he shouldn't have trouble finding a suitor who is willing to spend more than the mid-level exception on him.
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19. Rajon Rondo, PG
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Age: 29
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.6 PTS, 8.3 AST, 5.9 REB, 1.5 STL, .407 FG%, 13.3 PER
On reputation alone, seeing Rajon Rondo this far down on a "top free agents" list might understandably produce some cognitive dissonance. It wasn't that long ago, after all, that he was dishing and diming his way to four straight appearances in the All-Star Game as a Boston Celtic.
A few mitigating factors have sent his free-agency value plummeting, however, over the past two seasons. For one, he's shooting just 40.5 percent overall, 30.1 percent from three-point range and 47.7 percent on free throws during that stretch, having converted just 19 of his 61 looks at the charity stripe (31.1 percent) this season.
For a team to build around a point guard who is that limited in terms of shooting—even a passing wizard such as Rondo—has become far more difficult in today's pick-and-roll-heavy NBA. Opponents aren't afraid to go under every screen with Rondo as the ball-handler, openly daring him to shoot from the perimeter, and his inability to make them pay for that strategy is costly.
Additionally, the thought of shelling out major money to a 29-year-old who's just over two years removed from a torn ACL in his right knee should rightfully give general managers and team owners pause. As his athleticism wanes in the coming years, his once-elite defensive ability could also begin to fade, severely crimping his effectiveness and value to a team.
Because of his name and history, Rondo figures to command a salary above the next few players featured here. His recent history, however, should wind up slightly depreciating his value on the free-agent market—reputation be damned.
18. Robin Lopez, C
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Age: 26
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.6 PTS, 7.1 REB, 1.1 AST, 1.6 BLK, .508 FG%, 15.5 PER
Robin Lopez's per-game statistics don't come anywhere close to capturing his value for the Portland Trail Blazers.
With Lopez on the floor, the Blazers have a net rating of plus-7.5, averaging 106.9 points per 100 possessions while only conceding 99.4 per 100 on the other end. When he's on the bench, their defense is mostly the same—they give up 100.0 points per 100 possessions—but their offense is 3.5 points per 100 worse.
Willy Raedy of Blazers Edge described Lopez as a "master of basketball geometry," noting his impeccable sense of timing as the roll man in pick-and-rolls. The Blazers big man averages 1.09 points per possession as the roll man this season, which places him in the league's 74th percentile, and he's tied for 17th in points per game in those situations (2.9).
Defensively, Lopez ranks in the top quarter of the league in rim protection, allowing opponents to convert just 47 percent of their looks at point-blank range. The Stanford product is averaging 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes over his past three seasons, serving as an ideal complement to LaMarcus Aldridge on both ends of the court.
It's no coincidence the Blazers have gone 24-9 in Lopez's 33 games this season compared to just 13-10 without him. Though he doesn't have the flashy skill set of the top-tier bigs on the free-agent market, that shouldn't stop suitors from attempting to woo him away from Portland.
17. Tobias Harris, SF/PF
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Age: 22
Team: Orlando Magic
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 PTS, 6.5 REB, 2.0 AST, 1.1 3PM, .462 FG%, 16.5 PER
With the Orlando Magic stuck in rebuilding purgatory, Tobias Harris is likely to fly under the radar heading into free agency this summer. While he might not yet be a SportsCenter fixture, teams should battle tooth-and-nail to sign him to an offer sheet given how well he's played over the past two seasons.
This year, Harris is averaging a career-high 17.0 points on 46.2 percent shooting, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 treys and 1.0 steals in 34.5 minutes per game, knocking down a career-best 36.6 percent of his looks from deep, too. He's the league's only player under the age of 23 posting those averages this season.
The former Tennessee Vol ranks second on the Magic in scoring, rebounding, player efficiency rating (16.5) and win shares (3.2), which could force Orlando into a difficult decision this summer. As Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post suggests, Harris likely won't receive a max-level contract, but "he'll certainly get upwards of eight figures per year, possibly with a trade kicker or lucrative incentives."
Defense is the main thing holding Harris back from ascension into true superstardom, as the Magic are 4.0 points per 100 possessions stingier defensively with him on the bench. Within six feet of the rim, opponents are shooting 4.9 percentage points above their average when matched up against him, which likely suggests he's best in a complementary role instead of a franchise-type player.
Back in January, Bleacher Report's Michael Pina highlighted Harris as the potential steal of this year's free-agency class, calling him a "breathtaking player to watch." Given his enormous upside and youth, the bidding on him could become one of July's most fascinating storylines.
16. Tyson Chandler, C
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Age: 32
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.6 PTS, 11.7 REB, 1.2 AST, 1.3 BLK, .677 FG%, 20.9 PER
Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban already made the mistake of allowing Tyson Chandler to leave a few years back. Don't expect him to repeat that error this July when the 7-footer becomes an unrestricted free agent.
In 2013-14, sans Chandler, the Mavericks conceded 105.9 points per 100 possessions, the league's ninth-highest mark and the highest among any playoff team. This year, however, Dallas is only allowing opponents to average 102.3 points per 100 possessions, the NBA's 13th-best mark, ahead of playoff-bound teams such as the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers.
That defensive improvement is no coincidence. Dallas allows just 100.9 points per 100 possessions with Chandler on the court, posting a net rating of plus-8.2 in that span, while giving up 104.4 points per 100 with him on the bench. The big man has been especially stingy near the basket, with opponents shooting 5.3 percentage points below their average when he's guarding them within six feet.
Chandler remains one of the league's most lethal roll men in pick-and-rolls, scoring 1.37 points per possession on such plays this season, which puts him in the league's 93rd percentile. He's scored 152 points on rolls, the 12th most among any qualified player, ahead of All-Stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMarcus Cousins.
It's tough to draw up a more perfect complement to Dirk Nowitzki than a pick-and-roll-centric rim protector like Chandler. Other teams may pursue him in free agency given his revitalized play in Dallas this season, but the symbiotic relationship between him and the Mavericks should give him pause before signing elsewhere.
15. Wesley Matthews, SG
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Age: 28
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.3 PTS, 3.6 REB, 2.3 AST, 3.0 3PM, .453 FG%, 16.2 PER
Without looking, can you name the five NBA players with the most three-pointers this year? Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver and James Harden should be fairly obvious, but Portland's Wes Matthews currently sits fourth with 166 treys, just seven behind Curry for the league lead.
His prolific shooting from three-point range isn't a one-year fluke, either. Matthews has never hit fewer than 38.2 percent of his three-point attempts in a given season despite jacking up 5.1 triples per game over his six-year career.
He's one of the league's most prolific catch-and-shoot threats, trailing just Korver in catch-and-shoot triples per game (2.3). He also has the sixth-best effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoot opportunities among players who average at least four such treys per game (.586).
The Blazers offense is 5.1 points per 100 possessions more effective with Matthews on the floor, but the Marquette product's value isn't just limited to three-point shooting. Opponents are also shooting 4.1 percentage points below their average when matched up against him this season, and he's holding foes to just 31.6 shooting from beyond the arc.
Matthews' consistency is what sets him apart from other three-and-D free agents such as Danny Green, Khris Middleton, Arron Afflalo and DeMarre Carroll. Given the impending spike in the salary cap, he appears poised to land an eight-figure salary in free agency—a marked improvement over his $7.25 million cap hit this year.
14. Reggie Jackson, PG
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Age: 24
Team: Detroit Pistons
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.1 PTS, 4.4 AST, 4.1 REB, 0.8 STL, .432 FG%, 15.9 PER
Reggie Jackson's per-game statistics from 2014-15 aren't a fair representation of his value to a team. He struggled as a reserve with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but his brief time as a starter in OKC and with the Detroit Pistons speaks to why he's likely to command a hefty salary in restricted free agency.
With Russell Westbrook sidelined in November, Jackson stepped into OKC's starting point guard spot and averaged 20.2 points, 7.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.3 treys in a whopping 38.9 minutes over 13 games. Upon the return of Westbrook and Kevin Durant, however, Jackson's averages began to tail off, and Dion Waiters' arrival in early January only further exacerbated that process.
The Thunder shipped him to Detroit just minutes before the February 19 trade deadline, fully recognizing they were unlikely to retain him in July. He didn't waste time making team president Stan Van Gundy look wise for acquiring him, averaging 19.5 points, 7.0 assists, 6.5 rebounds and 1.0 steals in his first two games with the Pistons.
"[Jackson] seems to have an arrogance about the way he plays," a scout told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. "He's a good defender, good on the ball, gets good pressure, steals when he's off the ball, gets in the passing lanes. He's definitely a talented player."
The Pistons didn't acquire Jackson just as a rental—"We wouldn't have made the move we did if we didn't feel ready to make it a long-term commitment," Van Gundy told reporters following the trade—so he's likely in Detroit for the long haul. Suitors could at least force the Pistons into a difficult choice by constructing an offer sheet similar to the one Chandler Parsons signed with the Dallas Mavericks last summer.
13. Draymond Green, SF/PF
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Age: 24
Team: Golden State Warriors
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.1 PTS, 8.1 REB, 3.6 AST, 1.5 STL, .432 FG%, 15.6 PER
Based on per-game statistics alone, Draymond Green doesn't stand out as one of the more enticing free-agent targets in the class of 2015. In reality, he's one of the top examples of why per-game statistics aren't the be-all and end-all when evaluating NBA players.
Green ranks sixth in the NBA this season in defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, and he leads the league in defensive win shares. He's one of just three qualified players averaging at least 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per game in 2014-15, joining MVP contender Anthony Davis and Philadelphia 76ers big man Nerlens Noel.
The Michigan State product is limiting opponents to just 39.8 percent shooting, 6.0 percentage points below their average. He's been smothering in every area defensively, holding foes to just 26.3 percent shooting from three-point range (8.7 percentage points below average) and 43.3 percent on two-pointers (5.6 percentage points below average).
With Green on the floor, the Warriors have a net rating of plus-15.3—the fourth-highest net rating of any Golden State rotation player—compared to just plus-3.9 when he's on the bench. The Dubs' offense is 5.9 points per 100 possessions more effective with him playing, and the defense concedes 5.4 points per 100 possessions fewer, underlying his two-way value to Golden State.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Green "has a significant interest with pursuing an offer sheet with his hometown Detroit Pistons," and the Dubs are reluctant to pay him more than what Klay Thompson signed for last summer. Given his youth, versatility and defensive production, don't be surprised if Green winds up commanding somewhere in the neighborhood of a max contract in free agency, forcing Golden State into a difficult decision.
12. Greg Monroe, PF/C
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Age: 24
Team: Detroit Pistons
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 PTS, 10.5 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, .489 FG%, 20.4 PER
Greg Monroe took a major gamble on himself this past summer, declining to sign a long-term contract as a restricted free agent in favor of accepting the Detroit Pistons' one-year qualifying offer. It set Monroe up to become an unrestricted free agent in July, where he figures to have no shortage of interested suitors.
Since Detroit mercifully put an end to the disastrous frontcourt triumvirate of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith in late December, the Georgetown product has been a monster. He's gone from averaging 14.7 points on 48.2 percent shooting and 8.8 boards per game alongside Smith to 16.0 points on 49.5 percent shooting and 11.9 rebounds sans J-Smoove.
The man known as Moose currently ranks eighth among qualified players in rebounds per game (10.5), the first season in which he's cracked the double-digit threshold in boards. Against the Denver Nuggets on February 6, he exploded for his first-ever 20-20 game, scoring 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting and grabbing a career-high 21 caroms in 36 minutes.
If the Pistons have it their way, Monroe won't be heading anywhere come July. "I've got great respect for Greg as a player, and he's the kind of person you want in your organization going forward," team president and head coach Stan Van Gundy recently told Bob Wojnowski of The Detroit News. Team owner Tom Gores called him a "true professional" when speaking with NBA.com's David Aldridge in January.
Monroe shouldn't have trouble drumming up interest on the free-agent market, however, especially given his resurgent play in the wake of Smith's departure. Reliable interior scorers tend to come at a premium in free agency, which should have the big man in line for an eight-figure payday this summer.
11. Tim Duncan, PF/C
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Age: 38
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.7 PTS, 9.8 REB, 2.9 AST, 1.8 BLK, .500 FG%, 22.3 PER
If Tim Duncan wasn't turning 39 at the end of April, he'd be far higher on the list of 2015 free-agent targets. The future Hall of Famer has unfathomably continued to stave off Father Time, posting per-36-minute numbers this season that fall largely in line with his career averages.
Despite playing just 29.8 minutes per game, The Big Fundamental is tied for fifth in defensive win shares and ranks third in defensive box plus/minus, trailing only Utah's Rudy Gobert and Milwaukee's John Henson. He's also 12th on the year in block percentage, rejecting 4.7 percent of opponents' two-point field-goal attempts while he's on the floor.
Head coach Gregg Popovich believes Duncan's consistency will convince him to stave off retirement for one more season, telling USA Today's Sam Amick:
"It's just consistent stuff: another double-double, over and over and over again. Because of that, I think in his mind that if it continues through the rest of the year, I think he'll say, 'I'm going to go another year and see what happens.' Because what he has told me is that the minute he feels like he's a hindrance to his team or he's not on the positive end or helping him, he's going to walk right off the court. … The way he's playing now, he's going to look in the mirror and say, 'Hey, I'm doing all right.'
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If Duncan does decide to come back, it's impossible to imagine him abandoning Pop and the Spurs for one last ride somewhere else. Teams may inquire, even throwing the kitchen sink at him in a short-term contract offer, but money alone won't sway the 18-year veteran into leaving San Antonio.
10. Brandon Knight, PG
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Age: 23
Team: Phoenix Suns
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.7 PTS, 5.3 AST, 4.1 REB, 1.5 STL, .434 FG%, 17.9 PER
The Milwaukee Bucks' decision to send Brandon Knight to Phoenix qualified as one of the trade deadline's biggest surprises. Under the tutelage of new head coach Jason Kidd, Knight was setting new career-best averages in points, rebounds, assists, steals and three-pointers while shooting more efficiently than ever, too.
"[Kidd has helped me in everything, thinking the game, being smarter with decision-making," Knight told ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle. "Overall he just has a great feel for the game, and he transfers that to us, allows us to think about the game the same way he does."
Knight's impending date with restricted free agency seemingly forced Milwaukee's hand, as he figures to command an eight-figure salary on the open market, per Basketball Insiders' Nate Duncan. In Phoenix, playing alongside fellow Kentucky product Eric Bledsoe, he'll have a chance to demonstrate his adaptability.
In Milwaukee, Knight largely played on the ball, but he'll have no such luxury with the Suns. He's effectively slotting into Goran Dragic's role from 2013-14, in which he and Bledsoe can each serve as the team's primary ball-handler, able to switch on a possession-by-possession basis.
If he's able to thrive in both an on- and off-ball role with the Suns, he'll only further drive up his asking price this summer. To reach his true potential, however, he'll need to stiffen up defensively, as the Bucks were 4.6 points per 100 possessions stingier with him on the bench before trading him away.
9. Paul Millsap, PF
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Age: 30
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.8 PTS, 8.1 REB, 3.0 AST, 1.7 STL, .477 FG%, 19.8 PER
Two years ago, the Atlanta Hawks inked Paul Millsap to a two-year, $19 million deal that looked like an absolute heist. Two years and two All-Star Game berths later, the Louisiana Tech product is headed for a major raise.
During his two seasons with Atlanta, Millsap is averaging 17.5 points on 46.8 percent shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 treys in just 33.4 minutes per game. After knocking down a grand total of 31 triples over his first seven seasons with the Utah Jazz, he's hit 131 threes in the past two years.
Millsap's offensive versatility helped transform the Hawks from a mediocre outfit into an Eastern Conference juggernaut. The team averages an additional 6.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, as he's capable of pouring in points from the post or the perimeter without hesitation.
"Our offense is predicated on making basketball plays on top of basketball plays," Millsap told Rolling Stone's Michael Pina. I'm able to showcase my skill level. Dribble, pass, shoot. And I'm able to space the floor a lot more."
Though the 6'8" Millsap is somewhat undersized for a traditional power forward, the league's move toward stretch 4s makes him eminently more desirable on the free-agent market. He might not be dominant in any one facet of the game, but his well-roundedness should have teams willing to break the bank for him this summer.
8. Goran Dragic, PG
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Age: 28
Team: Miami Heat
Type: Player option
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.1 PTS, 4.1 AST, 3.5 REB, 1.3 3PM, .499 FG%, 16.5 PER
In 2013-14, Goran Dragic and the Phoenix Suns emerged as one of the NBA's biggest and best surprises. Dragic averaged a career-high 20.3 points on 50.5 percent shooting, along with 5.9 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 treys and 1.4 steals in 35.1 minutes per game, helping a Suns team with a preseason over/under of 19.5 ultimately finish the year with 48 wins.
Things went south for The Dragon this season, however, as the offseason addition of Isaiah Thomas crimped Dragic's playing time and style significantly. As ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan noted, the Slovenian floor general was largely "relegated to sitting in the corner and waiting for the play to develop and the ball to find its way to him, a proposition that became more and more of a rarity."
Since Phoenix traded him to the Miami Heat on deadline day, however, he's no longer facing that problem. And given his performance as the Suns' lone point guard in 2013-14—he had the league's 11th-best winning percentage with Bledsoe on the bench, per ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton—there's reason to believe he'll be back to his old self once he becomes more acclimated to his new surroundings.
At his peak, Dragic is one of the league's most lethal scoring point guards, especially in the pick-and-roll. The thought of Dragic running pick-and-pops with Chris Bosh for years to come should drive fear into the hearts of Miami's Eastern Conference competitors, as that two-man duo could prove virtually unstoppable.
After giving up two first-round picks to acquire Dragic at the trade deadline, the Heat "fully intend" to re-sign him this summer, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, and he's reportedly interested in that, too. Even if he struggles in his new role with Miami, Dragic is a near-lock to receive a max deal this summer, a marked upgrade over the $7.5 million player option he's sure to decline.
7. DeAndre Jordan, C
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Age: 26
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.2 PTS, 14.0 REB, 2.3 BLK, .721 FG%, 21.1 PER
If there was any doubt DeAndre Jordan would command a max contract in free agency, his play during Blake Griffin's absence officially erased it.
Since Griffin left the Clippers lineup with a staph infection in his right elbow, Jordan has been a force of nature, averaging 17.4 points on 67.2 percent shooting, 18.0 rebounds and 1.9 blocks over his past seven games. He strung together two straight 20-20 games heading into the All-Star break and carried over that momentum with 26 points and 18 boards against the San Antonio Spurs on February 19.
On the year, the Clippers offense churns out an additional 11.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, despite his ghastly free-throw shooting. However, his potential as a defensive anchor is what should have him swimming in a sea of green this summer, as Jared Dubin wrote for The Cauldron:
"It’s not every day you see a 26-year old big man who can anchor a defense hit the open market. That’s the kind of scenario that just screams “MAX CONTRACT,” and with the improvements he’s shown, the upside that may still remain and the major influx of TV money coming into the league shortly, he very well would be worth it.
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Hall of Famer Rick Barry described Jordan as a "liability" because of his free-throw shooting—he's shooting a pathetic 40.9 percent from the charity stripe this season—per Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times. An inability to knock down freebies didn't stop Shaquille O'Neal or Dwight Howard from breaking the bank in years past, however, and it won't stop Jordan, either.
6. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF
17 of 22
Age: 25
Team: Chicago Bulls
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 20.2 PTS, 5.9 REB, 3.3 AST, 1.8 STL, .460 FG%, 21.1 PER
It feels wrong to have Jimmy Butler this low in a list of 2015's top free agents, as just about every team would kill to add the Chicago Bulls swingman to its roster. Unfortunately, he faces some stiff competition among marquee players on the free-agent market, many of whom have been dominant for far longer.
After declining an extension offer in the four-year, $40 million-plus range this past fall, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Butler emerged as a two-way dynamo for Chicago. He's averaging per-game career highs in points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers while smashing his personal bests in PER and win shares.
Butler had been the Bulls' best defensive stopper on the wing, holding opponents to 41.6 percent shooting when matched up with them in 2013-14. This season, however, whether due to fatigue or a handful of minor injuries, foes are knocking down 47.4 percent of their looks against him, 2.7 percentage points above their average.
Despite the minor defensive slump, however, opposing small forwards are still only managing 16.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists against him per 48 minutes, according to 82games.com. He's nearly doubling their PER (11.5) and is holding them to an effective field-goal percentage of .440.
Whether Butler's scorching early-season play is a contract-year mirage or a harbinger of things to come, he's headed toward a fat payday in free agency regardless. The Bulls "fully expect to sign Butler to a max deal … before another team even gets involved to tempt with him an offer sheet," according to David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune.
5. Kawhi Leonard, SF
18 of 22
Age: 23
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Type: RFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.8 PTS, 7.4 REB, 2.5 AST, 2.1 STL, .438 FG%, 19.2 PER
Fresh off the 2014 Finals, Kawhi Leonard appeared to be the NBA's next big thing. The then-22-year-old erupted in the final three games against LeBron James and the Miami Heat, averaging 23.7 points on 68.6 percent shooting, 9.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.3 treys, 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks while staying glued to James defensively.
With the Finals MVP award in hand, Leonard headed into the season seemingly predestined for a max deal this coming summer. And though an eye infection and torn hand ligament have already cost him 18 games this year, he's been a steady force when healthy, setting new career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game.
The San Diego State product leans more heavily toward defense than long-range shooting as a three-and-D player, but he's perfectly capable of banging home treys, too. Over his four-year career, he's hit 215 of his 589 attempts from deep, although he's shooting a personal-worst 32.3 percent on threes this season.
Defensively, though, Leonard is the definition of smothering, as Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry recently highlighted. The Spurs defense is 5.7 points per 100 possessions stingier with him on the court this year, and he's holding opponents to 51.0 percent shooting within six feet of the basket, a full 9.0 percentage points below their average.
San Antonio didn't give a max extension offer to Leonard before the October 31 deadline purely for salary-cap reasons, as the swingman explained to USA Today's Sam Amick. Once the Spurs have a sense on whether Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili plan to continue playing following this season, they will turn their attention toward the face of their franchise moving forward.
4. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C
19 of 22
Age: 29
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.1 PTS, 10.3 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, .456 FG%, 22.1 PER
Nine years into his NBA career, LaMarcus Aldridge continues to add new elements to his game. He's long been one of the league's top mid-range shooters, defying recent conventional wisdom about the inefficiency of such shots. But this year, he's added three-pointers to his repertoire, too.
During his first eight seasons, Aldridge attempted a grand total of 116 treys, hitting just 24 of them (20.7 percent). This year alone, however, he's knocked down 25 triples—one more than he did in his first eight seasons combined—on just 60 attempts (41.7 percent).
The former Texas Longhorn has been a nightly 20-10 threat since his sophomore season, and like a fine wine, he's only grown better with age. Aldridge has averaged at least 20 points and eight rebounds per game in each of the past five seasons. No other player has done so more than three times (Blake Griffin).
This year, the Blazers churn out 107.5 points per 100 possessions with Aldridge on the floor—a mark that would place them fifth overall—but fall to 99.1 points per 100 possessions without Aldridge, lower than all but three teams. He's also limiting opponents to 45.0 percent shooting, 1.5 percentage points lower than their average, and has been especially stifling close to the basket.
Last summer, Aldridge told Joe Freeman of The Oregonian that he plans on inking a five-year extension with Portland this summer, hoping to eventually become "the best Blazer—ever." Other suitors will understandably attempt to pry him away, but given his satisfaction with the team's direction and the emergence of Damian Lillard, the big man figures to stay in Rip City for the foreseeable future.
3. Kevin Love, PF
20 of 22
Age: 26
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Type: Player option
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.9 PTS, 10.3 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.8 3PM, .433 FG%, 19.2 PER
Kevin Love's struggles to adapt in Cleveland may suggest he's not capable of putting up big numbers on a championship-caliber team. That couldn't be further from the truth.
As Seth Partnow explained for BBall Breakdown, Cleveland's offense often leaves Love drifting on the perimeter, largely serving as a deep-shooting decoy to open driving lanes for LeBron James, Kyrie Irving or another teammate. While that leads to occasional quiet nights, he's also still capable of bludgeoning an opponent, such as his 24-point, nine-rebound eruption against the Detroit Pistons on February 24.
Thanks to Irving, James and the other talent across Cleveland's roster, the Cavaliers don't need Love to average 25 points and 15 rebounds to have a chance of winning. As he demonstrated during his six years with the Minnesota Timberwolves, however, his stat-stuffing ability is virtually unparalleled across the league.
Though Love's defensive abilities pale in comparison to those of LaMarcus Aldridge, he's elite both as a rebounder and a three-point shooter. Paired with a legitimate rim protector—such as, say, Timofey Mozgov—Love's strengths outweigh those of Aldridge given the NBA's ongoing evolution toward perimeter-shooting big men.
In mid-January, Love told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group that he doesn't plan on declining his player option, although Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal suggested the big man will opt out "for cap purposes." It makes financial sense for Love to become a free agent and sign a two-year deal with a second-year player option, setting himself up to cash in once the salary cap spikes.
2. Marc Gasol, C
21 of 22
Age: 30
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Type: UFA
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.2 PTS, 8.0 REB, 3.8 AST, 1.8 BLK, .491 FG%, 22.2 PER
If teams were forced to build around one free agent in this year's class, Marc Gasol would rightfully rise toward the top of most wish lists. Given Dwight Howard's recent injury history, DeMarcus Cousins' inconsistency on defense and Roy Hibbert's disappearing act on offense, the Memphis Grizzlies big man has unquestionably emerged as the league's best two-way center.
Two seasons ago, Gasol took home the Defensive Player of the Year award, anchoring the league's second-stingiest defense while averaging 14.1 points, 7.8 assists and 1.7 blocks per game. This year, he's manning the middle for the NBA's fifth-ranked defense while smashing his previous career highs in points and PER.
Big Spain is holding opponents to 44.6 percent shooting on the year, 2.9 percentage points below average, and has been especially smothering in the paint. Within 10 feet of the basket, foes are shooting just 49.4 percent, a full 5.4 percentage points lower than their average.
Gasol figured to command a max contract in free agency due to his defensive dominance alone, but his offensive eruption only further sealed the deal. His frontcourt partner in crime, Zach Randolph, claimed credit for the 7-footer's newfound aggressiveness, telling ESPN.com's Chris Herrington, "I put a little bit of that in him."
Given the intrinsic value of a rim protector capable of pouring in points offensively, Gasol figures to have multiple teams willing to throw max money his way. His two-way dominance sets him apart from fellow marquee bigs like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love, which should have him positioned higher on suitors' priority lists, too.
1. LeBron James, SF/PF
22 of 22
Age: 30
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Type: Player option
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 26.0 PTS, 7.3 AST, 5.8 REB, 1.5 STL, .491 FG%, 25.8 PER
LeBron James may be reaching the tail end of his prime, but 85 percent of him is still better than 100 percent of just about anyone else.
In a supposedly "down" season for him—as if such a thing actually exists—he's posting per-game averages that only three other players in NBA history have matched. Despite being in the midst of his worst shooting season since 2008-09, James currently owns the league's fifth-best PER (25.8) and is once more in the thick of the MVP conversation.
Few players can replicate the all-encompassing impact James delivers on both ends of the court. He's outright unstoppable on the fast break and in the low post, has developed into a reliable three-point shooter and just passed Chicago Bulls legend Scottie Pippen for the most assists by a forward in NBA history.
Though James may take a few more plays off defensively than he did in his younger days, opponents are still shooting 1.4 percentage points below their average when matched up against him. The four-time MVP has missed a career-high 10 games this season, and yet he's still responsible for the second-most defensive win shares of any Cleveland Cavalier.
James is expected to opt out of his contract this summer, per Joe Vardon of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, but the 12-year veteran has repeatedly assured fans that he's in Cleveland for the long haul. Other teams will attempt to woo him if and when he does temporarily hit the free-agent market, but this year's top prize figures to stay right where he is.
All statistics via NBA.com, Synergy Stats or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through games played on Thursday, February 6. All contract data and salary-cap information via Spotrac.com.
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