15 Storylines That Will Define the Rest of the 2016-17 NBA Season
Try as many might to leave 2016 in the rearview, the NBA doesn't wipe its slate completely clean.
The nearly half-season that came and went before the calendar flipped set the stage for what's to come in 2017.
On Christmas Day, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors gave us a glimpse of what looks to be another star-studded showdown in the Finals. Russell Westbrook and James Harden were among those who blew the MVP race wide open, with several young studs rising up as more than just dark horses. The new collective bargaining agreement between the players and the league could shift the business of basketball before it takes effect over the summer.
Those are just a few of the big items that emerged from the year that was and figure to factor into the year ahead.
The next few months may look like another inexorable march to Cavaliers-Warriors III for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, but as these 15 storylines show, there's still plenty for fans across the Association to follow outside the confines of northeast Ohio and the Bay Area.
Cavaliers-Warriors, Part III
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If Hollywood has taught us anything, it's that every great story requires a trilogy, for better or worse.
In the NBA's case, the thought of another Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors might be met with ambivalence—by some, at least.
The inevitability of another matchup between the last two champions takes some wind out of what's otherwise been an exciting and intriguing 2016-17 season. And for all the talk of and hope for the league finally achieving parity, a likely third round between Golden State and Cleveland comes as a humbling reminder that in basketball, the teams with the very best players always have been (and, perhaps, always will be) the last ones standing at season's end.
But that march to imminence hasn't stopped the Association's other top talents from shining. Nor has it deterred fans from tuning in. According to Deadline, the Cavs' 109-108 win over the Warriors drew the fifth-largest regular-season NBA audience in ABC's history.
If anything, Cleveland's thrilling comeback should only stir up further anticipation for the next round on Jan. 16 in Oakland and the lengthier bout to come during the spring. Between the bad blood, great basketball and unmatched star power, this could be the modern equivalent of Lakers-Celtics.
"Well, it's a lot of championships won in that era," Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue said on Christmas Eve, per ESPN's Dave McMenamin.
"But if both teams stay together and both teams continue to keep winning, it could be like that. They have a great team over there on the other side and we have a great team also, so when you talk basketball, you're going to talk Golden State, Cleveland, San Antonio. That's who you're going to talk about. And it's a great place to be in."
Can Anyone Thwart King James?
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There's some reason to think the Warriors shouldn't book flights for the Finals just yet. Their matchups with the San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets thus far have ended in defeat, and their December win over the Los Angeles Clippers, while impressive, came with the caveat of Blake Griffin's gimpy knee.
The surer bet, once again, looks to be Cleveland's third straight Eastern Conference coronation. No team in that bracket can so much as sniff the Cavaliers' star-studded firepower.
Kyrie Irving, who hit the winning shots in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals and against Golden State on Christmas Day, was logging career-best numbers nearly across the board prior to his recent hamstring troubles. Kevin Love has looked more like his double-double-collecting, three-point-shooting Minnesota self this season than at any prior point during his Cleveland stint.
And, of course, there's LeBron James, who's upped the ante as the Cavs' point-forward while still leading the team in scoring. He's played like a man with his sights set on a seventh straight Finals appearance and a fourth title overall.
At present, the Toronto Raptors look like the best bet to upset Cleveland come playoff time. They snagged two games from the Cavaliers during last year's conference finals and currently sit second in the East on the strength of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan's concurrent career campaigns.
But, as Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding noted, a team that's already dropped three games against Cleveland this season remains more than a missing piece short of leapfrogging the conference's presumed champion: "So unless the Raptors add a guy good enough to slot in as an imposing third wheel, someone who might single-handedly make up that difference of one-and-a-half players, what's the point in pretending they can win the title?"
Another Boston Three-Party?
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The Cavaliers' biggest threat in the East could come from below the 49th parallel, though that may require a long-awaited seismic shift in Beantown.
The Boston Celtics, with their bevy of picks from Brooklyn and slew of attractive contracts, have long been agitators on the league's trade market. That figures to continue into this February, with the C's angling for a top-three seed in the East.
Not that Boston is devoid of top-tier talent. Isaiah Thomas, for one, has turned into an All-Star and a crunchtime killer. Only Russell Westbrook has scored more fourth-quarter points than Thomas' 9.3 per game, including the team-record 29 he poured in against the Miami Heat on Friday.
"I always say, fourth quarter isn't for everybody. I embrace it," Thomas told NBA.com's David Aldridge. "I know my teammates and my coaching staff look to me to be very aggressive in the fourth quarter, not just to score, but to make winning plays. I embrace that moment and I always have. It's just something that I'm pretty good at, I guess."
This past summer, the Celtics added another All-Star in Al Horford, whose sister has already lobbied for Boston to pick up more perimeter shooting and help for her brother on the interior.
Finding top-shelf help midseason is never easy. It certainly won't be this time around, what with teams still sorting through the league's new collective bargaining agreement.
The C's will have to decide if there's a deal out there for which they'd give up swap rights to the Nets' 2017 pick, which could wind up No. 1, or if they'd rather make a run at both a blue-chip prospect and a more established stud—like Utah Jazz free-agent-to-be Gordon Hayward—over the summer.
The New CBA and the Trade Deadline
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The collective bargaining agreement that was recently hammered out by the NBA and the Players' Association won't take full effect until July.
But it could sway business league-wide well before then.
Under the new deal, teams have more means for retaining their own players. Chief among them is the designated player extension, which allows incumbent squads to offer longer contracts at salaries based on a higher percentage of the cap to players they either drafted or acquired on rookie deals who hit major milestones (i.e., All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year, MVP) in the three years prior to signing.
That could make a team like, say, the Sacramento Kings even less likely to trade a player of DeMarcus Cousins' caliber, since he'll be eligible for such an extension this summer. It could also give hope to squads like the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz, whose respective star wings (Paul George and Gordon Hayward) haven't yet met the criteria but could if they earn All-NBA honors this season.
Considering how (rightfully) hesitant most organizations are to part with their homegrown superstars, the new CBA could further squash any potential blockbusters—outside of the Atlanta Hawks listening to offers for Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver, per ESPN's Marc Stein and Brian Windhorst—that might've otherwise popped up on the Association's radar prior to the Feb. 23 deadline.
Teams Throwing in the Towel for 2017
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While teams around the league may horde their proven superstars, a new crop of future studs could be on its way to the NBA in June.
Washington's Markelle Fultz, Kansas' Josh Jackson, UCLA's Lonzo Ball, North Carolina State's Dennis Smith and Kentucky's Malik Monk are but a handful of the fabulous freshmen grabbing headlines from what's expected to be one of the deepest draft classes in years. Young teams toiling at the bottom of the standings (Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Minnesota Timberwolves) don't need to be told to tank; they're already doing it, unwittingly or otherwise.
It's those in, around or just above that fray, with veterans to spare, that might need to be convinced.
The Lakers don't want to look like outright losers for the fourth year running. But if the losses keep piling up and teams come calling for Lou Williams or Nick Young, who is L.A. to say it shouldn't squeeze out what it can and set itself up to retain the pick it owes Philly by tumbling into the lottery's top three?
The Miami Heat came into the season with two quality cornerstones in Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic. But with a 10-26 record through 36 games amid a rash of injuries, could they be blamed for dangling Dragic for picks, especially after losing Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh since last season?
And what about the Dallas Mavericks? If Dirk Nowitzki is on his way out and the team already stinks (11-24 through 35 games), might it make more sense to find takers for vets (Wesley Matthews, Andrew Bogut) and collect assets to rebuild around Harrison Barnes and a blue-chip pick?
The closer the calendar creeps toward the trade deadline in late February, the clearer the picture of buyers and sellers around the Association should become.
Rebuilding Teams Shedding Their Old Skin
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If not for the hope engendered by their surprising start, the Lakers might've fit better with the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves as far as tanking approaches are concerned.
Those squads all sport promising young cores surrounded by talented veterans who might be more valuable in the long run as trade chips.
The Nuggets could fully hand over the reins to Nikola Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, but they first have to figure out how to proceed with the likes of Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried. The Suns have been awful at both ends with Tyson Chandler, Brandon Knight, P.J. Tucker and Eric Bledsoe, so perhaps it's time for them to swap out those vets and plow head-first into a future with Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Alex Len, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Tyler Ulis as their catalysts.
The Wolves aren't quite so tied up with players on lucrative contracts, though at some point, they'll have to sort out their situation at guard. Ricky Rubio has long been the starting floor general in Minnesota, but the team didn't draft Kris Dunn with the No. 5 pick in 2016 to not have him play alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine.
No NBA contract is truly untradable, though it could cost the Lakers a pretty penny to move two albatrosses like Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng—even more so with players of their ilk likely to earn much less under the new CBA than they snagged this past summer.
Dirk Nowitzki's Last Rodeo?
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Dirk Nowitzki is under contract through 2017-18, but he hasn't ruled out hanging up his sneakers a year earlier than he'd originally hoped.
"If things don't go so well and it hurts everywhere, it could be that 2017 will be the end," he told German magazine Sport Bild (h/t Yahoo Sports). "Actually, my plan is to complete the 20 years and play for Dallas until 2018. But just because I have signed a two-year contract doesn't automatically mean that I will play for two years. It could happen next year."
Those comments came during the German's month-long absence on account of an Achilles injury earlier this season. In his first five games back, Nowitzki posted numbers (11.2 points on 40 percent shooting in 18.8 minutes) that paled in comparison even to those he put up during the years just prior to this one.
At 11-24 and tied for 13th place in the Western Conference, the Mavericks aren't in any position to send Nowitzki riding off into the sunset. But after Kobe Bryant's boisterous farewell tour, Kevin Garnett's quiet exit and Tim Duncan's second-round playoff exodus last season, perhaps it's only fitting that one of the NBA's last, best '90s draftees would go out during a down year in Dallas.
If anything, the team's overall futility would make the final flashes of Nowitzki's brilliance worth savoring that much more.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Prince of the East
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There's no clear end in sight for Cleveland's reign over the Eastern Conference, but when it comes, the Milwaukee Bucks figure to be the team in best position to usurp the throne.
Leading the charge will be Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose four-year, $100 million extension kicks in next season. He hasn't waited for that payday to start playing like a superstar, though.
Through his first 33 games of the 2016-17 campaign, the Greek Freak led the Bucks in points (23.8), rebounds (9.0), assists (5.9), steals (1.9) and blocks (1.9)—career-highs all, including a personal-best field goal percentage (53.6 percent).
The rest of the league, the Cavaliers included, should be scared of what comes next. At 22, Antetokounmpo is still shy of his playing peak. And if the dogged approach inspired by his impoverished childhood in Greece is any indication, he'll do whatever it takes to get there.
"I can't push it to the side," Antetokounmpo told Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins of his upbringing. "I can't say, 'I've made it, I'm done with all that.' I will always carry it with me. It's where I learned to work like this."
How Far Can James Harden and Mike D'Antoni Take Houston's Moreyball?
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An internal tire fire from end to end last year, the Houston Rockets have forged a new harmony this season—and not just because Dwight Howard is gone.
As The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote, the combination of Daryl Morey in the front office, Mike D'Antoni on the sideline and James Harden at the point couldn't have come at a better time for those three and the Rockets franchise:
"After last season, Moreyball was under attack, D'Antoni had yet to shake his previous failures in New York and Los Angeles, and some wondered whether Harden's style of play was conducive to winning team basketball. But it's worked: D'Antoni's Seven Seconds or Less tactics have fused brilliantly with Morey's axiom of layups and 3s being the most efficient shots in basketball. And in Harden, the two have found the perfect avatar for their basketball philosophies.
"
As a result, the Rockets are on pace to win 60 games for the first time in franchise history behind an offense that will almost certainly shatter league records for three-point makes and attempts in a season.
This isn't the first time Houston has been a three-point-shooting machine; Clutch City's last two squads have gone bonkers from beyond the arc, as well. Nor is this D'Antoni's first rodeo at the helm of a spread pick-and-roll operation.
Yet neither has so much as sniffed the Finals playing this way: The Rockets got smoked by the Warriors in the 2015 conference finals, and D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns ran into rough patches and tough luck against the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks during their heyday.
Houston has been merely middle-of-the-pack defensively, per NBA.com, but its offense has been good enough to nick the Warriors in double overtime and split a pair with the Spurs. If the Rockets can hold steady defensively and continue to pile up points during the postseason, they may yet take D'Antoni's (and Morey's) brand of basketball further than it's ever gone.
The Cream of a Deep MVP Crop Rises to the Top
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The NBA is as long on MVP-caliber talent as it's been in recent memory, but the league's field of worthy candidates is already thinning.
Blake Griffin's latest knee injury likely cost him too much distance in the race to catch up; Chris Paul's hamstring troubles could do the same. Anthony Davis—who ranks among the Association's top seven in points, rebounds and blocks per game—would be in the mix if his New Orleans Pelicans weren't almost as close to last place as eighth in the West.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan could both get votes, but they figure to split each other's ballots as Raptors teammates. Kevin Durant's performance with the Warriors merits MVP consideration, but will the media rally behind a guy who plays with two-time winner Stephen Curry on a Golden State squad that won 73 games last season?
That still leaves a slew of great players, from Kawhi Leonard in San Antonio and Marc Gasol in Memphis to Isaiah Thomas in Boston and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee.
At this point, though, the award could boil down to two former teammates: Russell Westbrook and James Harden. If they keep piling up triple-doubles and their teams continue to win, they could be part of a photo finish in pursuit of the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
That is, if LeBron James doesn't eke out his fifth victory.
LA Teams Look to Recapture Early-Season Magic
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Remember when the Los Angeles Clippers were a league-best 14-2, with a stifling defense that played on a string? What about those 10-10 Los Angeles Lakers, who looked to be on the cusp of playoff contention during Luke Walton's debut campaign?
Those days seem like fever dreams compared to the recent nightmares through which the Staples Center co-tenants have suffered.
The Clippers saw their defense slip then fall off a cliff as they lost Blake Griffin and Chris Paul to injuries within a week en route to a six-game skid—their longest of the Doc Rivers era. The Lakers suffered their own string of absences—D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Nick Young, Tarik Black and Jose Calderon all missed time, and Larry Nance Jr. is still on the shelf—amid a stretch of 15 losses in 17 games.
Even after knuckling a flailing Phoenix Suns squad on Monday, the Clippers couldn't quite figure out why they've struggled so mightily to stop opponents of late.
"I don't know. I don't know. You try to figure these things out," J.J. Redick said. "You talk with each guy. You have group discussions, team meetings. I don't know. I don't know what has been wrong."
The Lakers, on the other hand, seem to be finding themselves again. They racked up 34 assists during a 116-102 trouncing of the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday, and they were within striking distance against the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors during the week prior.
At this point, a playoff meeting between L.A.'s teams seems far-fetched, though the next downtown showdown on Jan. 14 should be well worth watching, especially if the Clippers come with better health.
Philadelphia 76ers Wait for Ben Simmons to Join the Party
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The Philadelphia 76ers' "Process" looks to be proceeding apace this season: Joel Embiid is running away with Rookie of the Year honors. Dario Saric has flashed his all-around skill since arriving from Europe. Between Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel, the Sixers should have another big man for their long-term rotation and, perhaps, some valuable trade bait.
Another massive piece of the puzzle could be on his way to the fray soon. Ben Simmons, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, is working his way into team activities.
"You're going to see (Ben Simmons) integrated with us more and more," Sixers head coach Brett Brown said, per the Bucks County Courier Times' Tom Moore.
There's still no timetable for Simmons' NBA debut, but it's starting to look as though the 20-year-old Australian sensation might not be the third Sixers lottery pick in four years to sit out the entirety of his rookie campaign.
If that's the case, fans in Philly might finally get a glimpse before season's end of the glorious future for which Sam Hinkie had hoped.
No. 8 Is Not So Great out West
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It's been 20 years since a sub-.500 squad finished among the West's top eight. That season (1996-97), the Phoenix Suns (40-42) and Los Angeles Clippers (36-46) both qualified for the playoffs, though neither made it out of the first round.
That particular streak could come to an end this spring, with a slew of losing teams vying for the conference's final playoff seed.
The Sacramento Kings, who've recently been settled into the No. 8 spot, have yet to turn any corners defensively and are merely middle-of-the-pack on the scoring end. But the team has held its own against winning opponents (10-9), thanks in no small part to DeMarcus Cousins' spotty dominance.
The Portland Trail Blazers have lost their way defensively and unwittingly landed in George Karl's crosshairs as a result. Since Damian Lillard went down before Christmas, the Blazers have steadied the ship somewhat with Allen Crabbe stepping into a starting role and C.J. McCollum catching fire as the team's top scorer.
In truth, no Western team is totally out of the running. Approximately five games separate the last-place Phoenix Suns from playing past mid-April.
But whichever team crosses the finish line in eighth place won't have much to look forward to, beyond a likely whooping from the Warriors in the first round.
What's the Point in Chicago?
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Another stop, another bridge burned for Rajon Rondo. This time, he's worn out his welcome with the Chicago Bulls in just over two months.
The team has yet to clarify whether his stint against the Indiana Pacers on Friday will be his last in a Bulls uniform. So far, Chicago has insisted that Rondo has handled the demotion about as well as one could hope from an 11-year veteran with four All-Star appearances and a championship under his belt.
"He's been in a great place with his teammates," Bulls guard Dwyane Wade said, per ESPN's Nick Friedell. "That's all you can ask for. Obviously, you don't expect him to be jolly that he's not playing the game that he loves. But when it comes to his teammates, he's been great. He's been staying in it, keeps talking to guys. He's been here every day."
In the meantime, Chicago seems to have found a viable replacement in Michael Carter-Williams. The former Rookie of the Year has scored in double figures during three of his last four games, with Jimmy Butler stepping up as the squad's lead facilitator.
Still, it's not a good sign that the Bulls already are having to move on from one of their main offseason signings. They may have enough to sneak into the postseason this spring, but long-term, Chicago will have to do some serious soul searching when it comes to sorting out who it wants playing next to Butler.
The Rose That Grows Through the New York Knicks' Concrete
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There must still be some folks in the Windy City who wouldn't mind having Derrick Rose running point right about now. The Chicago native has played his best ball since his MVP campaign (17.6 points on 44.6-percent shooting, 4.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds).
More importantly, he's missed just four of the New York Knicks' 35 games so far.
All in all, Rose seems to have found a comfort zone in the Big Apple—enough so to call out the Knicks' lackadaisical effort on defense.
"Offense? I don't even want to talk about offense," Rose said after New York's 104-92 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. "If we stop people, it will be a lot easier for us to score. I'm tired of being down 10 after the quarter. It comes down to defense. I don't know when we're going to get tired of it."
If the Knicks tire of Rose, they can let him walk in free agency this summer. In theory, they can go over the cap since they own his Bird Rights. But with a cap hold of nearly $32 million, they may have to choose between Rose and a marquee free agent rather than being able to fit both.
As it happens, this summer's free-agent class will be littered with top-flight floor generals, from Stephen Curry and Chris Paul to Kyle Lowry and Jrue Holiday.
But there's no guarantee any of those guys will leave their current stops, let alone look to Manhattan for a new home. That could leave the Knicks in the unenviable position of tying a chunk of their long-term flexibility to one oft-injured former Bull (Rose) after shelling out beaucoup bucks to sign another (Joakim Noah) this past offseason.
All stats are via NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are accurate as of Jan. 5.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
