Updated 2016-17 Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team
It's no longer hard to differentiate between NBA bottom feeders and contenders.
A handful of teams has emerged in each conference with no shot to advance past the 82nd game of the 2016-17 campaign. At the same time, there are only a few squads with a realistic shot to move deep into the postseason and challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors for superiority.
It's sorting out the middle of the pack that's most difficult, just as was the case during our last set of record projections on Dec. 17.
This time around, the East has a mere six games separating No. 6 from No. 12. In the West, you're looking at an equivalent gap between No. 8 and No. 12. It's those teams that could easily finish in either the lottery or the postseason.
Don't worry. We're here to piece it all together for you.
East No. 15: Brooklyn Nets
1 of 30
Current Pace: 20-62
Mid-December Projection: 20-62
Current Projection: 18-64
Throughout his career, Brook Lopez had gone 3-of-31 (9.7 percent) from beyond the arc prior to this season. Now, he's making 1.9 per game and shooting them at a 36.5 percent clip, expanding his offensive arsenal in an effort to account for the lack of spacing elsewhere in the Brooklyn Nets lineup.
But it doesn't matter how many three-pointers the big man keeps draining.
Even with Lopez on the floor, the Nets are on the wrong end of a minus-5.4 net rating, which would fall ahead of only their own season-long mark, as well as those produced by the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers. In their most advantageous situation, they're still vastly overmatched.
The wins aren't coming this year, and the rebuild drags on.
East No. 14: Philadelphia 76ers
2 of 30
Current Pace: 22-60
Mid-December Projection: 24-58
Current Projection: 22-60
Joel Embiid is a revelation.
The big man has become the prohibitive favorite for Rookie of the Year, and he has a distinct chance to become the Philadelphia 76ers' first All-Star since Jrue Holiday in 2012-13.
Averaging 19.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.4 blocks while shooting 46.0 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from downtown is no easy feat, especially when team-imposed restrictions limit you to a meager 25 minutes per game.
But the Sixers' luck has mitigated the boosts of Embiid's development and the return of Nerlens Noel. Losing Jerryd Bayless for the season is disastrous because the two-man combination of T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez isn't capable of sustaining positive play at point guard.
Without floor generals to initiate the action at all times, the Sixers offense will end up spinning its tires through the mud even more frequently. And considering it already struggles to score points without Embiid, that spells doom.
The future is bright in Philadelphia, but the present remains murky.
East No. 13: Miami Heat
3 of 30
Current Pace: 23-59
Mid-December Projection: 32-50
Current Projection: 24-58
"2016 has not exactly been a year to remember for the Miami Heat," Ira Winderman wrote for the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "Chris Bosh again was sidelined with blood clots, no longer part of the team's future. Dwyane Wade left for the Chicago Bulls after rancorous free-agency negotiations. And now the reality that ... no team will go into 2017 with more losses than the Heat's 24."
If there's a turning point, it won't come in the near future.
Miami has been ravaged by injuries throughout the 2016-17 campaign and plenty of contributors remain sidelined. A right retinal contusion has prevented Hassan Whiteside from traveling with the team, while Dion Waiters (groin), Tyler Johnson (migraines), Josh McRoberts (foot) and James Johnson (illness) are all dealing with maladies of their own. Justise Winslow is probably out for the year with a torn labrum, per the Heat's Twitter feed.
Even when (if?) the Heat regain their health, they'll still be operating at a talent deficit against most opponents. They don't have the personnel to put around Whiteside and are forced to overextend him on the offensive end—which, in turn, affects his defensive ability.
The future isn't dismal for this organization, but it'll need to hit on what's sure to be a favorable pick in the 2017 NBA draft.
East No. 12: Orlando Magic
4 of 30
Current Pace: 36-46
Mid-December Projection: 36-46
Current Projection: 36-46
Let's check in on the Aaron Gordon experiment: The 21-year-old is averaging 11.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 steals during his first season as a small forward, but he's shooting just 43.1 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from downtown. Rarely has he been able to consistently stretch the floor or serve as a facilitator, which makes the preseason comparisons to Paul George more than a little questionable.
If it feels like the Magic are wasting his talents, it's because they are.
Fortunately, the Orlando rotation is becoming a bit clearer. Head coach Frank Vogel has settled in with Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka as the team's starting bigs and D.J. Augustin has been passable as the team's opening point guard.
But no matter how this mismatched roster is able to get on the floor, the results always seem similar. Even when it pushes toward .500, there's a sinking feeling that regression is coming. Even when it loses a few in a row, there's an overwhelming sense the talent will eventually take over.
The Magic are who they are—a team that should come within sniffing distance of a playoff spot but ultimately fall a few games short.
East No. 11: Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
Current Pace: 40-42
Mid-December Projection: 40-42
Current Projection: 38-44
The Chicago Bulls are falling apart.
Rajon Rondo has moved to the bench for the foreseeable future, which could quickly develop into a nightmare for the team's front office. Swelling in Dwyane Wade's knee has allowed for the emergence of questions about his durability, despite his health during the season's opening salvo. And most importantly, Chicago has gone 4-8 during its last 12 games.
No matter how well Jimmy Butler plays—and he's done pretty darn well, particularly during his 52-point explosion against the Charlotte Hornets—this team can't rise to his level. During the aforementioned 12-game stretch, he's averaged 24.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting 44.7 percent from the field and making endless trips to the charity stripe.
And it hasn't mattered; The Bulls' inability to shoot has served as a death knell. They rank dead last in effective field-goal percentage and ahead of only the Miami Heat in true shooting percentage. When looking at three-pointers made per game, the gap between them (6.1) and the No. 29 Detroit Pistons (7.7) is as large as the separation between the Pistons and the No. 14 Los Angeles Lakers (9.3).
You simply can't win consistently in the modern NBA without a perimeter game.
East No. 10: New York Knicks
6 of 30
Current Pace: 39-43
Mid-December Projection: 41-41
Current Projection: 39-43
Kristaps Porzingis has become the best player on the New York Knicks, and it may not even be close.
That's been particularly evident as the team struggles to win without him. A sore Achilles knocked him out of the lineup for two consecutive contests, which coincided with the Knicks extending their losing streak to five games.
Porzingis isn't a great defender overall, but he does thrive in the rim-protection department. So long as New York lets him remain the last line of defense rather than exposing him on the perimeter, he can deter interior buckets—something no one else on the roster seems capable of doing.
In fact, Mindaugas Kuzminskas is the only other Knick holding opponents to less than 45.0 percent shooting at the hoop, and he's doing so while facing 0.8 shots per game. Porzingis is facing 7.7 and allowing 42.9 percent shooting—numbers only Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid have been able to match throughout the Association.
When he's hurt, the Knicks have no options. When they play him at power forward, they're markedly worse. When he's on the pine, their net rating dips by 5.1 points per 100 possessions.
Such wholehearted reliance on one player isn't disastrous when you're counting on someone of LeBron James' or Russell Westbrook's ilk. But Porzingis is still a work in progress, and that just about sums up the current Knicks.
East No. 9: Washington Wizards
7 of 30
Current Pace: 39-43
Mid-December Projection: 30-52
Current Projection: 39-43
John Wall seems determined to will the Washington Wizards back into playoff contention.
The speedy point guard was named Eastern Conference Player of the Month for December, and for good reason. He averaged a sterling 25.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 2.6 steals while shooting 49.0 percent from the field. Plus, he carried the Wizards to a 10-4 record, allowing for their ascension into the postseason picture.
But Washington has still had trouble moving past mediocrity, and it's hard to view its December success as a sustainable trend.
For everything Wall has done, he occasionally has to catch his breath on the pine. And the same is true for Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat, who join the floor general in the starting five. That quintet has been fantastic, outscoring opponents by 8.2 points per 100 possessions.
But as soon as they need rest, everything falls apart.
It's tough to make the playoffs with a bench that ranks No. 30 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, per HoopsStats.com.
East No. 8: Detroit Pistons
8 of 30
Current Pace: 35-47
Mid-December Projection: 45-37
Current Projection: 40-42
Weren't the Detroit Pistons supposed to be better once Reggie Jackson returned? The opposite has been true, with the team winning just five times in 16 attempts since Jackson's season debut. And Detroit has been far worse with him on the floor:
| With Jackson | 104.8 | 112.2 | Minus-7.4 |
| Without Jackson | 102.3 | 101.3 | 1.0 |
This discrepancy isn't wholly Jackson's fault. But as Duncan Smith wrote for PistonPowered.com, he did spark controversy:
"Just a couple of games into Jackson's return, his ball-dominant style of play caused ripples in the Pistons' locker room, leading to a players-only meeting in which touches of the ball were discussed, as well as lack of effort defensively. Granted, the Pistons had to adjust from Ish Smith's distributing pass-first shoot-second style back to Jackson's on-ball attack, but they've made the switch poorly.
"
The Pistons will eventually rebound from their woes, and they should do so soon enough to make the playoffs. Jackson is coming off a year in which he should've drawn All-Star consideration, and Detroit has a vastly improved roster that fits well around him and Andre Drummond.
When the chemistry arrives, so too will the wins.
East No. 7: Indiana Pacers
9 of 30
Current Pace: 41-41
Mid-December Projection: 39-43
Current Projection: 41-41
The defense is finally starting to come around for the Indiana Pacers.
Though it's slipped in recent outings as the offense dominates and sparks wins, there was an 11-game stretch in December during which they allowed 105.3 points per 100 possessions. Myles Turner has done a strong job providing interior defense and stepping out to the perimeter to guard pick-and-rolls, while Paul George has resumed his impressive efforts on the preventing end.
Oh, and George has been fairly decent on offense.
"We just couldn't—we haven't been able to guard that guy in two years. There's a lot of good players in this league. A lot of them have good games against us as they will, and occasionally we'll be able to limit 'em," Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy said about George, per MLive.com's Aaron McMann, after the wing dropped 32 points Tuesday night.
"But he's really that guy we have not been able to limit at all."
Other teams can surely sympathize. So long as George stays healthy and keeps producing like he has since Christmas, the Pacers should feel confident they'll play more than 82 games.
East No. 6: Atlanta Hawks
10 of 30
Current Pace: 43-39
Mid-December Projection: 41-41
Current Projection: 42-40
The Atlanta Hawks still don't know who they are.
They've posted a 9.8 net rating during victories. But that mark drops all the way to minus-13.7 in defeat. And while that type of polarity should be expected, given the differing results, the discrepancy does seem to fit a team still fighting to develop consistency.
Dwight Howard has been a strong addition who's changing the mentality of the team, but he can have games where he doesn't seem to show up. Dennis Schroder looks like an All-Star some nights, but he'll quickly follow up with miserable shooting percentages and middling assist-to-turnover ratios. Kyle Korver can't seem to build up streaks of hot shooting, and the bench features different players showing out every night.
If you watched the Hawks during the season's opening salvo, you'd think they were contenders. If you watched them in late November and early December, you'd be convinced they were one of the worst teams in NBA history.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle. But it should fall closer to the former category now that Paul Millsap and the rest of the team's key players are enjoying the luxury of health.
East No. 5: Milwaukee Bucks
11 of 30
Current Pace: 42-40
Mid-December Projection: 44-38
Current Projection: 45-37
Giannis Antetokounmpo is just ridiculous, and not only because he can Eurostep through traffic for a dunk or distribute the ball like a point guard as he surveys the court from an elevated angle. Even though the world is still realizing he's a legitimate MVP candidate, he's been arguably the best player in the Eastern Conference.
Yes, that includes LeBron James. According to NBA Math, these five players have the top TPA scores in the East:
- Antetokounmpo, 238.43
- James, 189.96
- Kyle Lowry, 180.46
- Jimmy Butler, 144.07
- John Wall, 113.76
But Antetokounmpo hasn't been the Milwaukee Bucks' only star. Jabari Parker is quickly blossoming into an all-around offensive threat, while a slimmed-down Greg Monroe is enjoying a resurgent season on both ends. Malcolm Brogdon is coming into his own nicely during his rookie season.
Together, they've all been able to lift the Bucks over .500, even if some underlying metrics indicate this team is still underachieving. Milwaukee's youth may lead to a few too many losses, but this is a dangerous team.
East No. 4: Charlotte Hornets
12 of 30
Current Pace: 45-37
Mid-December Projection: 44-38
Current Projection: 46-36
Kemba Walker remains the Charlotte Hornets' best player, but he's by no means the only positive contributor.
Marco Belinelli has served as a distinct offensive asset off the bench, while Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Roy Hibbert thrive on defense. And that's saying nothing of two-way presences Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller.
The former has continued to function as an all-around contributor, and the latter has quietly developed into one of the league's most underrated centers by playing high-quality defense, setting fantastic screens and doing all the little things.
These Hornets are deep and capable of winning games while playing with various styles: If the defense needs to take charge, it can do so, ranking No. 7 in defensive rating and allowing just 103.6 points per 100 possessions. Ditto for the offense, which sits at No. 13 but features a takeover guard in Walker.
Few teams are this balanced and deep, which bodes well for the Hornets' chances of sustaining their early-season success.
East No. 3: Boston Celtics
13 of 30
Current Pace: 49-33
Mid-December Projection: 46-36
Current Projection: 47-35
Let's all agree to stop saying the Boston Celtics need a star.
"With his gaudy scoring average and increasingly tight command over the Celtics offense, [Isaiah] Thomas looks like a surefire All-Star," Patrick Redford wrote for Deadspin. "He made it for the first time last year, and he’s improved almost across the board this season (perhaps most impressively with his turnovers and free-throw shooting)."
Sure, they might continue to gauge interest in big-name players such as DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin, but the Celts already have two legitimate All-Star candidates in Thomas and Al Horford. Plus, Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are plusses in the starting five, and there's no shortage of quality role players operating under head coach Brad Stevens' tutelage.
Defense remains a work in progress for the C's, but it's at least trending in the right direction. And if Thomas keeps producing like he has recently—he followed a 52-point outburst with a career-high 15 assists—Boston might not even have to bother with work on the preventing end.
The Celtics feel like one of three Eastern locks to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
East No. 2: Toronto Raptors
14 of 30
Current Pace: 55-27
Mid-December Projection: 53-29
Current Projection: 52-30
Kyle Lowry is still on fire.
The Toronto Raptors point guard is averaging 22.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.1 assists while turning the ball over fewer than three times per game. That's impressive enough, but his stats become even more jaw-dropping when you realize he's shooting 47.4 percent from the field, 44.4 percent from long range and 85.4 percent at the charity stripe.
Behind his all-around excellence, the Raptors offense remains on pace to become one of the best in NBA history. Even though they sit behind the Golden State Warriors, they're tracking toward an adjusted offensive rating of 107.05, per NBA Math, which would be one of the 10 best scores ever posted.
This team can keep up with any other on the scoring end, but it is subject to a few letdown performances and contests that showcase its defensive inadequacies.
When DeMar DeRozan attempts to take over from mid-range and puts together inefficient lines, it can hamper the team's success, which is part of why Toronto has been 15 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor.
Until head coach Dwane Casey can figure out how to maximize his star players and defense more consistently, the Raptors will remain a tier short of the East's clear-cut No. 1 squad.
East No. 1: Cleveland Cavaliers: 60-22
15 of 30
Current Pace: 65-17
Mid-December Projection: 58-24
Current Projection: 60-22
Only a lack of motivation can keep the Cleveland Cavaliers from winning 60 games.
They boast one of the best offenses in NBA history, capable of dropping gaudy point totals against even the stingiest foes. And while they're not quite so dominant on defense, they still have lockdown abilities and can piece together lineups that prevent points with aplomb.
Kevin Love is having the season the Cavs expected when they traded for him, thriving as a spot-up shooter who can score in the post and feast on the boards when not spacing the court.
Kyrie Irving remains one of the league's most dangerous scorers and is putting together quite the resume with his clutch buckets.
And LeBron James is, well, LeBron James.
That three-man combination is outscoring the opposition by 12.7 points per 100 possessions. That's not a typo. They're just that good.
West No. 15: Phoenix Suns
16 of 30
Current Pace: 25-57
Mid-December Projection: 26-56
Current Projection: 25-57
As Devin Booker told Bleacher Report, adjusting to extra defensive attention is a difficult process.
"It's tough. Usually defenses are making it harder on me this year. They know about me this year. At the same time, they're making me work when I'm on defense. Usually I've got to chase a lot of players off a lot of screens. Wears me down a little bit. But that's just game schemes. Everyone does that in the NBA, and you want to get one of the scorers working on the defensive end, get him running. There's just a lot to the game."
Booker is elaborating upon the struggles so many young players go through as they move into featured roles. And the extra work has hampered the sophomore's shooting ability, as he's produced a field-goal percentage of 40.2 while hitting 32.6 percent of his treys.
His woes are emblematic of what's plaguing the Phoenix Suns as a whole: They have so many youthful players that winning has been rather difficult.
But to their credit, they're willing to keep giving the youngsters run, opting for development over immediate mediocrity. Though the losses will keep accumulating, they'll ultimately improve Phoenix's future prospects.
West No. 14: Dallas Mavericks
17 of 30
Current Pace: 26-56
Mid-December Projection: 21-61
Current Projection: 26-56
"We know we have a legit shot (at the playoffs). We've just got to put a little string together. We've got to play better," Dirk Nowitzki told Mavs.com's Earl K. Sneed.
Technically, he's correct.
The Dallas Mavericks haven't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They could win the vast majority of their remaining games and earn the right to play one of the Western Conference juggernauts in the first round.
But that's virtually impossible, especially for a team that's won back-to-back contests only twice all season and has yet to achieve victory three times in a row.
Even with Nowitzki back in the fold and Wesley Matthews and Deron Williams looking healthy, the ceiling isn't high enough. Expect the Mavericks to remain on the current pace, which already looks better than it did a month ago. But don't expect much more.
West No. 13: Los Angeles Lakers
18 of 30
Current Pace: 28-54
Mid-December Projection: 32-50
Current Projection: 29-53
The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of bright spots to focus on, and those should take precedence over anything that has to do with winning and losing. This is a rebuilding season through and through, even if the team's early-season success allowed immediate playoff aspirations to enter into the picture.
Los Angeles should be thrilled D'Angelo Russell has looked like an offensive star in recent outings. It should be overjoyed at Julius Randle's development into a triple-double threat who can often serve as the team's best player. It should highlight the momentary flashes of brilliance from Brandon Ingram, even though he's fallen well off the Rookie of the Year pace.
This campaign is about development.
Wins will come organically, but head coach Luke Walton must continue to make the growth of his young contributors the top priority, just as he's done thus far.
West No. 12: Minnesota Timberwolves
19 of 30
Current Pace: 26-56
Mid-December Projection: 33-49
Current Projection: 32-50
If the Minnesota Timberwolves could only play first halves, they'd be dominant.
The young team knows how to come out of the gate strong, posting a 7.5 net rating in the first two quarters, which trails only the marks owned by the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers. They're a top-five offensive team during those initial 24 minutes, and their defense is on the verge of moving into the top 10.
Alas, basketball games are 48 minutes long.
During the second half, the net rating plummets to minus-11.0—the third-worst mark in the NBA. The offense falls apart and the defense can't stop anything.
Is this just a sign of a young team learning how to finish games? It's possible, since Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins—arguably the three best players on the roster—are all just 21 years old. Is it emblematic of head coach Tom Thibodeau failing to make halftime adjustments? That's possible, too.
Whatever the issues may be, they're killing the Timberwolves' chances of springing into playoff contention, even with the Western Conference's No. 8 seed up for grabs.
West No. 11: Sacramento Kings
20 of 30
Current Pace: 36-46
Mid-December Projection: 30-52
Current Projection: 34-48
DeMarcus Cousins is in the midst of a spectacular season, averaging 29.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 45.3 percent from the field, 38.2 percent from downtown and 78.5 percent at the charity stripe. He's cutting down his turnovers, playing some of the best defense of his career and emerging as a bona fide three-point marksman.
But is it enough?
When Cousins is on the floor, the Sacramento Kings are still being outscored by the opposition. They don't have the personnel necessary to hang with the more talented squads surrounding them, even while Rudy Gay is surging and establishing himself as the Robin to Cousins' Batman.
And it's far worse when he doesn't play. Without the starting center, the Kings have posted a minus-11.1 net rating.
If the MVP award was literally voted on as the league's "most valuable player," Cousins would be near the forefront of the discussion. But the Sacramento front office still hasn't placed a strong supporting cast around him, thereby depressing the team's playoff chances and wrecking his odds of winning the league's pre-eminent individual award.
West No. 10: New Orleans Pelicans
21 of 30
Current Pace: 32-50
Mid-December Projection: 35-47
Current Projection: 35-47
When healthy, the New Orleans Pelicans are more than a one-man show.
Anthony Davis remains the team's clear-cut leader, capable of doing anything and everything on the basketball court. If he can somehow lift his team beyond the regular season, he'll show up on more than a few All-NBA ballots.
But even with the big free-agent additions (Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore) failing to emerge as consistent standouts, the supporting cast has looked better lately. Healthy versions of Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans will tend to do that.
According to nbawowy.com, the Pelicans have outscored their foes by 2.3 points per 100 possessions with both Davis and Holiday on the floor. Davis and Evans haven't had the same level of success, but they should learn how to function together as the latter regains his sea legs and reacquaints himself with operating as a secondary ball-handler.
Barring injuries, the Pelicans should be able to exceed their current pace. Maybe it won't be by much, but they should come within a stone's throw of the playoffs—enough to keep Davis content in his current digs for another year.
West No. 9: Denver Nuggets
22 of 30
Current Pace: 33-49
Mid-December Projection: 36-46
Current Projection: 37-45
On one hand, the Denver Nuggets have been far better since changing their starting lineup and allowing Nikola Jokic to thrive as a primary offensive hub. Behind the big man's immense passing acumen and the cutting he's inspired, they've been a far more competitive team, despite losses to lottery squads such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings.
"It's easy [to cut when playing with a passing big]," Wilson Chandler told Bleacher Report in late December. "Sometimes you get offenses where you feel like you're cutting for no reason, but he [Jokic] definitely gives you a feeling, makes you want to cut so you might get the ball and score."
But it's easy to have those feelings when you're winning. When you're not, chemistry issues can rear their ugly heads—exactly what happened after the Tuesday loss to Sacramento, according Aniello Piro of Mile High Sports, after a sequence that included head coach Mike Malone calling out the team's veterans and Danilo Gallinari disagreeing with him in the locker room:
"After tonight’s loss it was fairly clear that there was some disagreement between players and coaches. Even on the court towards the end of the game players seemed disengaged, drained, and out of sync with what coach Malone was trying to instill in his team.
It’s one game, but it’s been a boiling issue all season for the Nuggs.
"
Especially with Jokic breaking out, Denver has the talent to rise into the playoffs. But it has to get past its potential chemistry issues first.
West No. 8: Portland Trail Blazers
23 of 30
Current Pace: 34-48
Mid-December Projection: 42-40
Current Projection: 38-44
The Portland Trail Blazers' recent slump has knocked them down to No. 9 in the Western Conference standings. But if there's any team that will bounce back, it's this one.
Damian Lillard remains a legitimate superstar, while C.J. McCollum is a threatening offensive presence capable of exploding in the points column any given night. The team also has a handful of strong interior and wing defenders, even if they've been unable to make up for the starting backcourt's many mistakes.
Portland remains a top-10 offense, but the defense has been beyond putrid. Allowing 109.7 points per 100 possessions, it's better than only the youthful Los Angeles Lakers.
This is a stark departure from last year when Rip City still enjoyed a distinct offensive tilt but managed to finish No. 20 in defensive rating. It's possible to overcome a defense that's typically around the league average; it's not when that unit sometimes looks like one of the worst in NBA history.
Head coach Terry Stotts should get his troops back on track before too long. It may be too late for the team to post a winning record, but earning the No. 8 spot in the West might not require 41 wins this year.
West No. 7: Memphis Grizzlies
24 of 30
Current Pace: 49-33
Mid-December Projection: 47-35
Current Projection: 44-38
The Memphis Grizzlies continue to be a baffling team.
Their net rating is barely in the green. Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system—based purely on strength of schedule and margin of victory—has them ranked at No. 12, most comparable to the struggling Detroit Pistons. And yet, here they sit, on pace to win just under 50 games.
Doesn't it feel like regression is coming?
Even if Marc Gasol continues playing like a superhuman and the Grizzlies keep getting healthy, they can't continue winning all their close games. They're bound to fall off their lofty pace, though their slippage should still result in a playoff berth with room to spare.
This isn't a knock on Gasol. It's not a dig at Mike Conley or any of the up-and-coming players on the roster. It's not even a commentary on their lack of shooting or the fallibility of clutch numbers.
It's just the truth.
West No. 6: Oklahoma City Thunder
25 of 30
Current Pace: 49-33
Mid-December Projection: 42-40
Current Projection: 46-36
What happens when Russell Westbrook slows down?
It's going to happen eventually since no player in NBA history has maintained this type of usage for an entire season.
Back in December, we noted that Westbrook was posting a 41.6 usage rate and a 57.3 assist percentage. A month later, those numbers have gone up.
His usage rate has risen to 42.2 percent, and he's now assisting on 58.8 percent of the buckets his teammates make when he's on the floor. Both of those numbers would be the highest qualified marks in NBA history (with room to spare), giving Westbrook a combination of stats that's unique.
Fantastic as he's been—and it's worth noting the world seemed to underestimate his supporting cast heading into the season—he simply can't keep this going. And if he regresses or misses even a handful of games, the Thunder's record will plummet correspondingly.
Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Victor Oladipo look strong while he's playing. They can't carry a team in his absence.
West No. 5: Utah Jazz
26 of 30
Current Pace: 50-32
Mid-December Projection: 53-29
Current Projection: 53-29
The Utah Jazz have finally arrived. They're not consistently dominant yet, though that's partially because they're—yet again—dealing with a plethora of injuries that have prevented the team from establishing enough continuity and chemistry.
But they're on pace to win 50 games, and it feels like they're even better than that.
NBA success depends on a number of factors, but few are more important to modern teams than shooting and defense against opposing shooters. Utah is near the top of the pack in both categories:
| eFG% | 52.8 | No. 5 |
| Opponents' eFG% | 48.1 | No. 1 |
The Golden State Warriors are the only other team in the top five for both relevant statistics, though the Los Angeles Clippers are close.
Nothing more needs to be said. The Jazz are here to stay as a two-way force.
West No. 4: Los Angeles Clippers
27 of 30
Current Pace: 51-31
Mid-December Projection: 56-26
Current Projection: 54-28
The Los Angeles Clippers have been dealt a stark sense of reality without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.
"With eight wins and 11 losses over their last 19, the Clippers are on the precipice of slipping into disaster," Joshua Cornelissen wrote for Hoops Habit before Los Angeles' win over the Suns on Monday. "The recent poor play is not a result of a more difficult schedule either; only four of those 19 games were against teams currently with winning records, and Los Angeles won two of those four—beating the Cavaliers and Spurs."
The team struggles enough without Griffin; It descends into pure ineptitude when Paul is also missing. According to nbawowy.com, the Clippers have a minus-8.5 net rating with both superstars on the sidelines.
Remember how the bench was supposed to be vastly improved? It may be better, but it's not capable of carrying this team. It's been exposed by the absence of the two leading starters, and that won't change when the reserves are eventually forced back into their traditional roles.
The Clippers are still a top-tier team and should remain a favorite to earn home-court advantage in the first round, but they're no longer locks to do so.
West No. 3: Houston Rockets
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Current Pace: 62-20
Mid-December Projection: 54-28
Current Projection: 57-25
James Harden's offensive ridiculousness has led to his standing as a bona fide MVP candidate, but it's also distracted from everything else happening with the Houston Rockets.
Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, both of whom were largely written off as mediocre offseason signings, have been crucial to this team. Thanks to the bearded point guard making their lives so much easier, they've thrived in the Mike D'Antoni system.
Anderson is scoring 14.1 points per game while shooting 41.3 percent from downtown. Gordon has emerged as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, averaging 17.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists while shooting 43.5 percent from the field and 42.8 percent from three-point territory.
And don't look now, but the 2-guard is pacing the NBA in triples, putting him on pace to join Stephen Curry as one of two players in NBA history to hit at least 300 in a season.
Harden is the leading superstar and sparks the team's offensive prowess, but he wouldn't be spurring his troops on to so much success if they weren't capable of contributing positively and properly filling their roles. Shockingly, it doesn't seem like much of a fluke that these Rockets are on pace to win more than 60 games, even if we should expect them to trail off ever so slightly.
West No. 2: San Antonio Spurs
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Current Pace: 66-16
Mid-December Projection: 61-21
Current Projection: 61-21
Raise your hand if you think the San Antonio Spurs are capable of doing anything but exceeding expectations.
If you put your hand into the air, lower it slowly. I'm just trying to save you from embarrassment before anyone notices.
Tim Duncan is retired, though he still shows up to the San Antonio facilities every so often. Tony Parker has declined, to the point that he's no longer an upper-tier point guard in the Western Conference. Pau Gasol requires scheme alterations so he's not a huge defensive liability.
And it just doesn't matter. Nothing does when Gregg Popovich is pacing the sidelines in constant possession of the Midas touch. Everything always works out with him as head coach and Kawhi Leonard leading the two-way charge.
Doubting the Spurs remains just as futile as ever, even if we're still guessing they fall off the current pace when Popovich begins resting the veterans for their inevitable playoff run.
West No. 1: Golden State Warriors
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Current Pace: 70-12
Mid-December Projection: 69-13
Current Projection: 70-12
According to NBA Math's TPA metric, three members of the Golden State Warriors are among the 10 who have added the most value to their respective organizations.
Kevin Durant checks in at No. 5, sandwiched between Chris Paul and LeBron James. Stephen Curry is three spots lower, and Draymond Green is directly behind the point guard at No. 9.
And that's saying nothing of Klay Thompson, who has continued to serve as a long-range sniper capable of throwing up gaudy figures on a moment's notice.
The Warriors are loaded with talent, which shouldn't be even the least bit surprising. What's more jarring is how quickly they've adapted to Durant's presence: They've stuck to a 70-win pace without skipping a beat and are perilously close to boasting the league's top offense and defense.
Golden State is the juggernaut everyone expected.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and are accurate heading into games on Jan. 4.
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