Updated 2016-17 Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team
That look of consternation LeBron James is displaying in the above picture? Some of you might want to reserve that same stare for us, because we can't possibly pick every NBA team to make the playoffs.
More than a few fanbases will be unhappy.
Though clear delineation has developed between the Western Conference's haves and have-nots, the Eastern Conference's playoff picture is a muddled mess. Ten teams seem to have significant shots at playing more than 82 games, and that number could grow if a few lackluster units get their acts together.
The gap between the West's Nos. 8 and 9 is a meager six games in our predictions—the same separation that exists between the East's Nos. 3 and 9.
We're arriving at these educated guesses by looking at everything that's happened in 2016-17, including the teams' paces and how they're playing, per the FATS model provided by NBA Math. Large disparities exist for some squads because underachieving or overachieving is possible at this stage of the calendar.
East No. 15: Brooklyn Nets
1 of 30
Current Pace: 24-58
FATS Prediction: 24-58
B/R Projection: 20-62
On the bright side, the Brooklyn Nets will have some of the top lottery odds for a stacked 2017 draft class. On the not-so-bright side, the Boston Celtics own the right to swap first-round picks, which would render all this bottom-feeder's losing moot.
Brooklyn isn't a total pushover. Unlike some of the worst teams we've witnessed in previous years, it won't go down as one of the most ignominious squads in NBA history.
But it is the league's outfit most incapable of winning on any given night.
There simply isn't enough talent on the Nets roster. That'll be doubly true if the front office realizes the futility of its direction and trades Brook Lopez for some sort of quantifiable upside, whether in the form of draft picks or a young player who can boost this rotation's long-term fortunes.
But even if the team remains intact for the rest of the year, it's tough to see it improving upon its pace—a pace that was lifted by a relatively strong (and unsustainable) opening to the campaign.
East No. 14: Philadelphia 76ers
2 of 30
Current Pace: 20-62
FATS Prediction: 26-56
B/R Projection: 24-58
As Joel Embiid grows, so too will the Philadelphia 76ers.
The star center isn't without his warts. For all his dominant shot blocking and eye-popping blend of inside-outside scoring, he's hitting just 45.9 percent of his field-goal attempts and recording nearly twice as many turnovers as assists. Those are the primary reasons behind his minus-1.0 offensive box plus/minus, which significantly curtails his overall value.
But the Sixers are still better with him on the floor, learning as he undergoes his trial by fire. While they're being outscored by 11.8 points per 100 possessions when he's resting, the net rating shrinks to minus-0.2 when he plays.
If his minutes restrictions continue to dwindle, Philadelphia will become more competitive.
And that's only one of many upside scenarios in the City of Brotherly Love. Just imagine if there's a Nerlens Noel breakout, a Ben Simmons return to health or a Nik Stauskas and Jahlil Okafor defensive breakthrough.
The Sixers aren't a good team; They'll be outclassed most every time they take to the court.
It's still easy, however, to get the feeling a 20-win pace is the worst they'll do in the foreseeable future, especially when even that pace sells short how well they've been playing recently.
East No. 13: Washington Wizards
3 of 30
Current Pace: 34-48
FATS Prediction: 32-50
B/R Projection: 30-52
As bad as the Washington Wizards have been, the underlying metrics show they've actually overachieved. It's just tough to win many games when you're ranked No. 15 in offensive rating and No. 21 in defensive rating.
The starting lineup is fantastic. John Wall is submitting an All-Star resume, while Bradley Beal explodes on offense and Otto Porter throws in his name for max-contract consideration. Even Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have been more than just serviceable.
But the bench is where everything falls apart, and that's not likely to change with Ian Mahinmi struggling to regain his health and few established players available off the pine. Jesse Blancarte, writing for Basketball Insiders, agreed:
"The unfortunate truth seems to be that the Wizards are a team that is still trying to find its identity under its new head coach and simply doesn't have the depth to compete at a high level on a nightly basis. The Wizards are getting great production out of their main players, but that hasn't been enough to offset the bench's lack of production and consistency.
"
East No. 12: Miami Heat
4 of 30
Current Pace: 28-54
FATS Prediction: 36-46
B/R Projection: 32-50
"It's me and Goran [Dragic]," Hassan Whiteside recently told Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley about the Miami Heat's leadership. "Guys look at how we come out."
Both stars have been fantastic, to the point that they're carrying their team to some victories. Whiteside is averaging a staggering 17.6 points and 14.7 rebounds while shooting 54.2 percent from the field, and Dragic is earning fringe All-Star consideration by throwing up an efficient 18.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game.
It's just not enough. Not while half the roster always seems to be nursing various maladies.
Right now, the Heat are without Chris Bosh (blood clots), Luke Babbitt (hip flexor), Dion Waiters (groin tear) and Tyler Johnson (illness). They only just got Justise Winslow back from a wrist injury that never seemed to heal properly. The maladies have been too widespread to overcome, especially for a team already operating with limited talent and diminished expectations.
Whiteside and Dragic alone are enough to carry the Heat to a somewhat respectable finish, but they're not going to push Miami into playoff consideration. That dream will wash up before too long, especially since the Heat failed to capitalize on early-season opportunities, digging themselves a fairly substantial hole.
East No. 11: Orlando Magic
5 of 30
Current Pace: 33-49
FATS Prediction: 37-45
B/R Projection: 36-46
It's a tale of two ends for the Orlando Magic.
Elfrid Payton and the point guards have trouble generating consistent offense, and spacing issues constantly rear their ugly heads. With Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, Serge Ibaka and Aaron Gordon all trying to earn minutes, head coach Frank Vogel often treats offense like a sacrificial lamb. It's no wonder the Magic are scoring a meager 99.9 points per 100 possessions, leaving them as one of only four squads failing to break into triple digits.
The defense, however, is solid.
It's by no means elite, ranking just No. 15 in defensive rating after 25 games. But it's shown signs of significant improvement after early-season woes. Players are starting to understand the systems that made Vogel such a successful defensive tactician with the Indiana Pacers, and they're building chemistry with one another.
Orlando's defense won't be enough for it to earn a playoff berth, but it can mask the offensive woes and make it appear like this franchise is on an upward trajectory.
East No. 10: Indiana Pacers
6 of 30
Current Pace: 39-43
FATS Prediction: 40-42
B/R Projection: 39-43
In early December, C.J. Miles was asked why the Indiana Pacers have been so frustratingly inconsistent. Per IndyStar.com's Nate Taylor, he said:
"If I had an answer to that, I'd tell everybody in the locker room so we wouldn't do it anymore. I think it's a matter of focus and effort. It's not a lack of talent. It's not a lack of personnel. Everybody is healthy now. Even when we weren't healthy, we had guys step up and play well. It's about how bad do you want to win. What are you willing to sacrifice to win? That's the biggest thing.
"
Most playoff teams don't go through that type of struggle. They may have issues with execution, schemes and injuries, but they don't have a lack of focus and effort.
Even if they're hanging around .500, these Pacers are not a good basketball squad right now. They rank No. 20 in offensive rating and No. 17 in defensive rating, giving them a putrid minus-2.3 net rating. For perspective, the closest net ratings belong to the Washington Wizards, Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Paul George remains a superstar capable of single-handedly winning games. But the construction of this team still doesn't make much sense, leaving Monta Ellis without much value and placing far too much pressure on Myles Turner's developing defense.
Even if the Pacers regain their focus, the losses will keep coming.
East No. 9: Chicago Bulls
7 of 30
Current Pace: 43-39
FATS Prediction: 43-39
B/R Projection: 40-42
There's plenty to like about the Chicago Bulls. Jimmy Butler is performing like a fringe MVP candidate. Dwyane Wade is turning back the clock on a nightly basis. The offensive rebounding is off the charts. The defense has been good, even if it hasn't quite reached "great."
But shooting woes can't be consistently overcome in the modern NBA, and the regression to the mean has been brutal for a squad that started the season in sterling shape.
Chicago has mustered a 47.6 effective field-goal percentage—the result of an unwillingness to attempt threes and an inability to make them. Not only does that rank No. 29, ahead of just the Memphis Grizzlies, but it's a historically bad mark.
When compared to the league average, the Bulls have produced an adjusted effective field-goal percentage of 94.3. Per NBA Math's databases, that's the 52nd-worst mark in league history, which puts them in the fourth percentile.
It gets worse: Of the 51 teams that fared worse, only five made the playoffs.
Chicago's defense and rebounding should be enough to keep it in the hunt, but it's hard to imagine the shooting will improve substantially. And that's a death knell.
East No. 8: New York Knicks
8 of 30
Current Pace: 44-38
FATS Prediction: 41-41
B/R Projection: 41-41
Kristaps Porzingis is the real deal.
The 7'3" sophomore is averaging a staggering 20.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from beyond the arc. He keeps his turnovers in check, always seems to make good decisions and even plays tremendous defense around the rim—per NBA.com's SportVU data, opponents only shoot 40.3 percent against him in that area.
Oh, and he's still getting better.
Porzingis has become New York's best player, but he's not the only quality contributor. Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah remain strong on offense and defense, respectively. Kyle O'Quinn has been a revelation off the bench. Even Derrick Rose has shown flashes, though he's failed to reach his pre-injury levels.
Are the New York Knicks a great team? A superteam, even?
Of course not. Their net rating (minus-3.4) is indicative of a lottery finish, though that's partially because they've been blown out by some of the league's elite. Even last year, when they finished 32-50, they had a superior net rating.
But there's significant talent in New York, and it should be enough for the Knicks to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
East No. 7: Atlanta Hawks
9 of 30
Current Pace: 39-43
FATS Prediction: 39-43
B/R Projection: 41-41
Who are the real Atlanta Hawks?
Are we supposed to believe in the team that went 9-2 over its first 11 games while posting a 9.6 net rating? Or should we subscribe to the squad that followed that with a 1-10 stretch and a minus-14.3 net mark?
The truth lies somewhere between, of course: The Hawks are a thoroughly mediocre outfit prone to cold-shooting spells that can also play some of the league's best defense. They're going to look fantastic some nights and utterly awful shortly thereafter.
But we leaned slightly positive here for a few reasons.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer deserves our confidence after the work he's done ever since taking the job. Injuries have held this team back—Paul Millsap was missing during some portions of the 1-10 stretch. And above all else, there's significant upside with Dennis Schroder running the point as the unquestioned starter and the roster still learning how to play alongside Dwight Howard.
The Hawks aren't contenders or playoff locks, but they should still be favored to play more than 82 games.
East No. 6: Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 30
Current Pace: 41-41
FATS Prediction: 42-40
B/R Projection: 44-38
Upside, upside, upside.
The Milwaukee Bucks are by no means a perfect team and will go through inexplicable stretches of poor play. But, barring substantial injury woes, they should also finish above .500 as they continue to develop under head coach Jason Kidd. Across the roster, there's too much breakout potential to do anything else.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is already playing like an MVP candidate. He's close to establishing himself as the Eastern Conference's second-best player, and he's doing so while fighting his way through turnover woes, incessant foul trouble and the dearth of a reliable jumper. Imagine what will happen if that last part changes.
Jabari Parker is beginning to assert himself as a threat to win Most Improved Player. The Duke product looks far more confident and athletic on the offensive end, even if his defensive work lags well behind.
And it doesn't end there: Malcolm Brogdon has been a revelation off the bench, to the point he could earn some hype in the Rookie of the Year race (so long as we pretend Joel Embiid doesn't exist and there actually is a race). Thon Maker and Rashad Vaughn offer more upside, even if they haven't spent much time on the floor.
This Bucks team is good, and it's only scratching the surface of its potential. Don't be surprised if we look back at this placement and laugh.
East No. 5: Charlotte Hornets
11 of 30
Current Pace: 44-38
FATS Prediction: 44-38
B/R Projection: 44-38
The Charlotte Hornets have the combination every team is searching for.
They're great on each end of the floor, ranking No. 9 in both offensive and defensive rating. The only other squads who can claim top-10 standing in each category? The Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, all of whom are considered bona fide contenders.
Under Steve Clifford's supervision, the Hornets understand how to play high-level defense. And they have a trump card on offense: Kemba Walker.
The point guard is quickly proving his 2015-16 success was no fluke. If anything, he's getting even better by improving around the basket and continuing to grow more dangerous from the outside. The Hornets love using multiple bigs to screen around the top of the key, and Walker has made defenders pay every time they duck under one of those picks.
Charlotte can't quite rise into elite territory without another star, but this is a deep roster capable of playing any style, going big or small without sacrificing much competitiveness.
Even if they come up short, the Hornets should be competing for home-court advantage in the first round during the regular season's final week.
East No. 4: Detroit Pistons
12 of 30
Current Pace: 43-39
FATS Prediction: 41-41
B/R Projection: 45-37
The Detroit Pistons just had to survive while Reggie Jackson rehabbed, and they did exactly that by going 11-10 before the star point guard made his season debut.
Now, the team's best player (sorry, Andre Drummond) is back in business, with Ish Smith pushed back to a more comfortable role off the bench. The change increases the depth in Motor City and gives the Pistons a distinct scoring threat in the backcourt.
The Detroit offense should run far more smoothly with Jackson. Drummond won't be subjected to constant double-teams when he catches the ball in the post, and the threat of Jackson scoring off the bounce will draw defenders toward him, thereby opening up easier shooting opportunities for the cadre of shooters lining up on the wings.
The Pistons had been winning with defense, but the offense should sway the proceedings as soon as everyone develops more chemistry.
It may already be too late for Detroit to emerge as one of the Eastern Conference's most dangerous contenders—but only in terms of record. The rest of the regular season will be about consistently improving so Motown can capitalize on home-court advantage during the first round and then scare one of the upper-tier teams in the second.
East No. 3: Boston Celtics
13 of 30
Current Pace: 43-39
FATS Prediction: 45-37
B/R Projection: 46-36
The Boston Celtics will only keep improving as they fully integrate Al Horford into head coach Brad Stevens' schemes.
The beginning of the season featured plenty of injury woes, with Horford, Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder all missing time. As a result, Beantown has only played witness to the team's strongest lineups for short stretches—not enough to truly gauge the upside of this dangerous and deep roster.
According to NBAWowy.com, the four-man combination of Crowder, Horford, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley has only shared the court for 229 minutes thus far—an average of just 9.2 minutes per game. But that lineup has scored a staggering 116 points per 100 possessions, which would trail no one in the season-long rankings.
"We do have some holes, and we're trying to improve our team continually, but I think we're a little bit better than our record," Danny Ainge, the president of basketball operations, said in an interview with WBZ NewsRadio 1030's Adam Kaufman (h/t CBS Boston). "But that is who we are right now; we're a 13-12 team. I think the next 25 games will be really telling of who this team really is."
Even if the Celtics don't use the trade market to fill that hole with a superstar—yes, this team will forever be linked to standouts such as DeMarcus Cousins—they'll emerge as one of the conference's most dangerous squads if/when they get (and stay) healthy.
East No. 2: Toronto Raptors
14 of 30
Current Pace: 59-23
FATS Prediction: 55-27
B/R Projection: 53-29
Despite the Toronto Raptors' defensive woes, they're deadly. Thank you, offense.
Behind another incredible season from Kyle Lowry and the dangerous mid-range scoring chops that belong to DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors have pieced together one of the scariest scoring units we've ever seen. In fact, according to NBA Math, their adjusted offensive rating would topple the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks for the best mark in league history.
It's not even close:
- 2016-17 Toronto Raptors: 109.7
- 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks: 108.9
- 2016-17 Golden State Warriors: 108.5
- 2004-05 Phoenix Suns: 107.9
- 2015-16 Golden State Warriors: 107.6
The defensive woes will eventually come back to bite Toronto, as will offensive regression. But it features two of the league's most dangerous backcourt scorers who are brimming with on- and off-court chemistry.
This squad will only continue to establish itself as a contender, especially as Lucas Nogueira, Norman Powell and other youngsters grow.
East No. 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
15 of 30
Current Pace: 62-20
FATS Prediction: 60-22
B/R Projection: 58-24
There shouldn't be any doubt.
The Cleveland Cavaliers aren't gunning for any records. They're more than willing to sit LeBron James and keep him healthy for the inevitable title run, even if doing so on the second half of a back-to-back likely angered Memphis Grizzlies fans. They're also amenable to lineup experimentation as head coach Tyronn Lue figures out what will work best when games actually count.
But this team is still more talented than any other in the East.
Kyrie Irving is having yet another spectacular offensive season. Kevin Love is finally having the year that was imagined after he was traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Cavs. And James is putting together yet another MVP-caliber campaign, helping lift the team's net rating by a staggering 13.3 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
Couple that Big Three with Tristan Thompson's improved two-way play and a host of vested shooters surrounding the stars and you have yourself a lineup capable of defending a championship.
Sixty wins isn't a foregone conclusion and may be too much to ask if Cleveland rests its starters excessively, but this squad has the potential to do that and more.
West No. 15: Dallas Mavericks
16 of 30
Current Pace: 20-62
FATS Prediction: 21-61
B/R Projection: 21-61
Dirk Nowitzki isn't coming to save these Dallas Mavericks.
A sore right Achilles has kept him out of the lineup for all but five games, and there's no telling when the 7-footer will return. The last information we heard wasn't really an update but was still illuminating, as he told the German magazine Sport Bild, per Agence France-Presse (h/t Yahoo Sports), "If things don't go so well and it hurts everywhere, it could be that 2017 will be the end."
As the Mavericks soldier on without their best player in franchise history, it's abundantly clear the team lacks the talent to compete with the Western Conference's playoff hopefuls. It struggles immensely on the defensive end, and the offense is an even bigger disaster.
J.J. Barea (who has played in only nine contests), Wesley Matthews and Deron Williams are the only ones producing positive offensive box plus/minuses. Even Harrison Barnes, who is averaging a career-best 20.4 points, has earned a negative score as he struggles with efficiency and fails to contribute in anywhere else when not scoring.
It's hard to see this getting much better.
Health and slight improvements should ensure Dallas doesn't finish the season with just 20 wins. But it won't beat that mark by much and will struggle to worm its way out of the Western basement.
West No. 14: Phoenix Suns
17 of 30
Current Pace: 25-57
FATS Prediction: 30-52
B/R Projection: 26-56
CBS Sports' Matt Moore summed up the Phoenix Suns rather nicely while ranking them No. 29 in his latest power rankings: "The Suns lead the league in pace, so at least they're going nowhere really fast."
Phoenix does have intrigue, however.
Eric Bledsoe remains one of the league's most underrated point guards. T.J. Warren, when healthy, is a tremendous scoring threat. Even if he's struggled immensely with his shooting in the face of increased defensive pressure, Devin Booker is a talented youngster with substantial upside. Ditto for the big-man combination of Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender.
But youth doesn't always lead to wins, and that's the case in the desert: Phoenix has been a bottom-10 team on each end.
That's not likely to change anytime soon, but it's not like this should be a surprise.
The Suns were never expected to be competitive in 2016-17, and they're not. They were expected to undergo significant growing pains, and they are.
West No. 13: Sacramento Kings
18 of 30
Current Pace: 30-52
FATS Prediction: 34-48
B/R Projection: 30-52
Let's turn to Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes:
"If you're among those who want the Kings to lock Cousins up as a cornerstone for years to come (which the new collective bargaining agreement should make even easier), this is fine. And, again, we can't ding Sacto for thinking about the big picture when all we've ever done is lambast the franchise for shortsightedness.
But the Houston game wasn't part of a back-to-back, and the chances to salvage this season are dwindling. Removing Cousins from the lineup assured a loss.
"
Cousins and Rudy Gay may well be the only positives for the Sacramento Kings right now, which is a terrifying negative for a team that's spent so much time rebuilding—or rather, attempting to rebuild. The Kings haven't made the playoffs or finished above .500 in over a decade, but the absences of two players still basically guarantees defeat.
That's not ideal, but that's what happens when Cousins, Gay and Garrett Temple are the only members of the organization with positive box plus/minuses.
Just imagine how bad this could get if the Kings do pull the trigger and trade one of their few assets.
West No. 12: Los Angeles Lakers
19 of 30
Current Pace: 29-53
FATS Prediction: 29-53
B/R Projection: 32-50
The Los Angeles Lakers were never a legitimate playoff threat.
Even when they were 10-10, that was overachieving. An eight-game losing streak made that clear, though the level of futility also isn't indicative of this up-and-coming team's ability. In reality, it's a squad that should win between 30 and 35 games while handing significant minutes to a number of unpolished prospects.
And the Lakers don't need to win yet.
This season was always supposed to be about progress, i.e. exactly what we've seen. Even without toppling many opponents, head coach Luke Walton has established himself as a candidate for award season by sparking substantial improvements from so many different players: D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr., Nick Young, Lou Williams, etc.
The playoffs are in the Lakers' future—and not the distant one, either.
But for now, enjoy the good and accept the bad. Take solace in this team's becoming both fun and easy to root for, even if it'll finish in the lottery for the fourth consecutive campaign.
West No. 11: Minnesota Timberwolves
20 of 30
Current Pace: 23-59
FATS Prediction: 30-52
B/R Projection: 33-49
Well, we missed on this one.
ESPN.com's Fall Forecast had the Minnesota Timberwolves winning 40 games and just barely missing out on the playoffs. CBS Sports' team had a range of predictions: 44 wins from Bill Reiter, 43 from Ethan Skolnick, 43 from James Herbert, 42 from Matt Moore and 29 from Ananth Pandian. Yours truly predicted the Wolves would earn the Western Conference's final postseason berth with a 42-40 record.
Kudos to Mr. Pandian. He was the only one on the mark.
Minnesota's young players—Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins above all else—have looked fantastic on offense. But with Ricky Rubio having the worst season of his NBA career and the team as a whole often failing to play anything that even resembles defense, the wins haven't been forthcoming.
Early in the year, third quarters were the troublesome spot. Lately, there hasn't been any one period in which the Wolves have struggled.
Thus, Minnesota should eventually improve under head coach Tom Thibodeau, but it's clear the playoff hopes were too much too soon. This team still has more growing to do before it can hang with the established squads that are already accustomed to crucial late-game situations.
West No. 10: New Orleans Pelicans
21 of 30
Current Pace: 27-55
FATS Prediction: 33-49
B/R Projection: 35-47
Let's get the obvious out of the way first: Anthony Davis is really good.
The 23-year-old big man is averaging 30.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 2.9 blocks per game, leading the league in the first and last of those categories. No qualified player in NBA history has put together that line, and Davis is doing so while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and turning the ball over just 2.6 times per contest.
But Davis alone can't win while surrounded with a substandard stable of support, and it's only lately that his teammates are starting to prop him up.
Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans are both healthy for the first time this season, and their presences should make everyone else look better. They are, after all, the best facilitators on the roster, and distributing is necessary if off-ball wings such as Solomon Hill, E'Twaun Moore and Buddy Hield are going to thrive.
This squad should track back toward .500 for the rest of the season, even if it doesn't quite get there. So long as everyone stays healthy, this is a talented team.
But NOLA may have dug too deep of a hole by losing its first eight games.
West No. 9: Denver Nuggets
22 of 30
Current Pace: 32-50
FATS Prediction: 29-53
B/R Projection: 36-46
Don't be fooled by the Denver Nuggets' subpar record.
It's true they haven't played well during the season's first quarter. Emmanuel Mudiay has shown a staggering lack of growth—to the point his presence on the floor is actively hindering Denver's chances of winning games.
But there are also excuses.
Injuries have destroyed any semblance of continuity in the Mile High City, and it wasn't until Dec. 15 that the team played at full strength—a night that resulted in a 132-point showing in a victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. If Mudiay, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic play together, this should begin to resemble what some expected to compete for a playoff squad.
"If you think about it, the last three years, this roster never played together," Gallinari said before the start of the season. "Not even one game. So finally, we have all the guys back. Everybody's healthy. As long as we stay healthy, it's not going to be a problem to get to the postseason."
That was true on media day, but Harris' foot injury derailed those hopes.
Now, it's true again, and we get to find out if Gallinari was right or if it's already too late.
West No. 8: Oklahoma City Thunder
23 of 30
Current Pace: 47-35
FATS Prediction: 46-36
B/R Projection: 42-40
Eventually, Russell Westbrook will slow down. It's inevitable. (Right?)
We're not saying he won't join Oscar Robertson as one of two players in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season. That's very much a possibility, and he's gotten off to a great start by averaging 30.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 10.6 assists.
But Westbrook is doing this while posting a 41.6 usage rate and a 57.3 assist percentage. Just look at where those stand among all qualified seasons in NBA annals:
| 1 | 1990-91 John Stockton (57.5) | 2016-17 Russell Westbrook (41.6) |
| 2 | 1989-90 John Stockton (57.4) | 2005-06 Kobe Bryant (38.7) |
| 3 | 2016-17 Russell Westbrook (57.3) | 2014-15 Russell Westbrook (38.4) |
| 4 | 1987-88 John Stockton (54.8) | 1986-87 Michael Jordan (38.3) |
| 5 | 2008-09 Chris Paul (54.5) | 2001-02 Allen Iverson (37.8) |
This isn't sustainable. It can't be while Westbrook is playing 35.2 minutes per game and suiting up in every contest for the Oklahoma City Thunder. No man has that much energy, even a superhuman athletic specimen who plays point guard in the Sooner State.
What happens when he falls off? What happens if he misses even a handful of games?
For that reason alone, OKC's pace isn't indicative of what its final record will be. Forty-seven wins should be considered the best-case scenario, and that's just about unattainable.
West No. 7: Portland Trail Blazers
24 of 30
Current Pace: 38-44
FATS Prediction: 41-41
B/R Projection: 42-40
Let's talk about defense.
The Portland Trail Blazers are tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for last place on the defensive-rating leaderboard. According to NBA Math's database for adjusted defensive rating, Portland's score (95.0) would beat out only 36 teams in league history.
And here's the kicker: Of those 36, only the 1968-69 Cincinnati Royals and 1981-82 Denver Nuggets finished .500.
The Blazers could make it three because of their incredible offense, led by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. But that's no easy task, and fixing the defense has to be Rip City's top priority.
That should be doable. Portland will by no means become an elite unit, but it shouldn't be historically bad at the end of the season, either. We're talking about a team that finished the 2015-16 campaign ranked No. 20 in defensive rating, and the pieces haven't grown markedly worse in just a year's time.
So long as the Blazers can avoid the ignominy of a last-place finish on that end, they should make the playoffs.
West No. 6: Memphis Grizzlies
25 of 30
Current Pace: 55-27
FATS Prediction: 42-40
B/R Projection: 47-35
The Memphis Grizzlies can't shoot the ball, and that tends to be the part of basketball that's most highly correlated with winning during the regular season. If you're looking for the primary reason for the discrepancy between their pace and FATS projection, there's your answer.
But Memphis does everything else well: No team has been stingier on defense, and the other offensive elements aren't awful. It's capable of generating free throws and second-chance opportunities, and it doesn't turn the ball over too frequently.
Above all else, Memphis has a bona fide superstar.
Marc Gasol has been fantastic during 2016-17, averaging 19.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 45.6 percent from beyond the arc. His defense has been some of the best in the league, and the addition of a three-point stroke makes him an unbelievable two-way player.
With its center on the floor, Memphis has outscored the opposition by 7.4 points per 100 possessions.
Now, the Grizz will get Mike Conley back sooner than expected to provide an offensive boost, and the whole team (with a few exceptions) is looking healthier than it's been in quite some time. Memphis just continues to exceed expectations, and we have little reason to believe it won't keep doing so.
West No. 5: Utah Jazz
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Current Pace: 50-32
FATS Prediction: 54-28
B/R Projection: 53-29
George Hill has been an offensive revelation for the Utah Jazz, thriving from beyond the arc and providing plenty of scoring for a team that has typically struggled to showcase its firepower. Rudy Gobert has been a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors are all upper-tier players at their positions.
But how often have they played together?
According to NBAWowy.com, just 12 minutes.
That's it. Twelve.
No team has been more adversely affected by injuries, but the Jazz are still on pace to win 50 games. It's a total that, if healthy, they should blow out of the water, especially because they've been playing at an even higher level than that trajectory indicates.
Utah was a trendy pick to compete for a top seed in the Western Conference before the season began, and that shouldn't change.
West No. 4: Houston Rockets
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Current Pace: 60-22
FATS Prediction: 50-32
B/R Projection: 54-28
It's easy to focus on James Harden.
He's an MVP front-runner and putting up fantastic numbers for the Houston Rockets. Playing for Mike D'Antoni as the point guard in a pace-and-space offense has unlocked his lofty offensive potential and made it clear he's one of the NBA's elites.
But Harden alone won't win games frequently enough to remain on a 60-win pace. That requires defense. Let's turn it over to Sam Dekker, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:
"I think mentally [the key is] for us to lock in and get our schemes. We have the athletes to do both [score and defend]. We have athletes to run and pass, but we also have athletes who can also lock down and really play smart defense.
Coach D'Antoni says in huddles sometimes scoring comes so easy that we kind of relax defensively thinking that we can outscore teams sometimes, and we can't let that happen. We've done a good job at that, and Jeff [Bzdelik, a Rockets assistant coach responsible for the defense] really keeps us and holds us accountable for that.
"
Through the end of November, Houston was allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions, which beat only the marks produced by the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers. In December, the defensive rating has reached 99.1, which trails only the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons.
That level of excellence isn't sustainable, but it's clear the Rockets have the talent to become a stingy-enough unit. This team can't be taken lightly on either end.
West No. 3: Los Angeles Clippers
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Current Pace: 60-22
FATS Prediction: 58-24
B/R Projection: 56-26
Chris Paul is pretty darn good: The Los Angeles Clippers point guard has been masterful on the offensive end, averaging 17.8 points and 9.6 assists while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from downtown. His defense has been impeccable against opposing floor generals, he refuses to turn the ball over and his leadership is significant.
Blake Griffin is pretty darn good: The power forward is fully healthy, and he's thriving. No longer relying on mid-range jumpers, he attacks and finishes around the basket more than in previous seasons. The results speak for themselves, as he's getting to the charity stripe more frequently and improving his overall efficiency numbers.
DeAndre Jordan is pretty darn good: The center has continued to look like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and he's doing so while throwing up double-doubles and playing efficient offense. Don't make the mistake of thinking his limited role means he's any less valuable on the scoring end.
J.J. Redick is pretty darn good: After leading the league in three-point percentage during the 2015-16 campaign, he's having yet another spectacular season from downtown. This time, he's taking 5.4 triples per game and connecting at a 44.1 percent clip—one of only three players to hit both of those numbers in 2016-17.
The Clippers are pretty darn good.
West No. 2: San Antonio Spurs
29 of 30
Current Pace: 66-16
FATS Prediction: 56-26
B/R Projection: 61-21
This version of the San Antonio Spurs isn't going to win 66 games, even if it's on pace to do so through its first 26 contests. That record oversells what the Spurs have done and doesn't take into account a cushy schedule or average margin of victory that isn't quite indicative of such a historically dominant bunch.
According to Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, which looks at nothing more than those two factors, the Spurs have been the NBA's sixth-best team, behind the Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets.
Why then, do we have them earning the league's second-best record?
Because head coach Gregg Popovich doesn't know how to lose and is now working with the cushion earned by the early season's success. Kawhi Leonard isn't at the stage of his career where he needs many maintenance days, and the depth of this roster ensures the Spurs will remain competitive when veterans such as LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol sit.
So while San Antonio has overachieved during the first portion of the calendar, it's not like the success will just go away. We're still talking about one of the league's premier defensive outfits—one that also happens to feature a two-way superstar.
West No. 1: Golden State Warriors
30 of 30
Current Pace: 70-12
FATS Prediction: 63-19
B/R Projection: 69-13
After their Dec. 15 assist-fest at the expense of the short-handed New York Knicks, the Golden State Warriors are on pace to win 70 games. Again.
But they won't get there.
Last season featured the Dubs actively chasing the all-time record, and it may have come back to bite them during the NBA Finals. We'll never know if they'd have avoided blowing a 3-1 lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers if they'd rested their stars more during the regular season, but it couldn't have hurt.
They won't make the same mistake in 2016-17: Players will sit out down the stretch. Head coach Steve Kerr will monitor minutes. They'll experiment with lineups and different sets during close games, gauging how various contributors handle themselves under pressure.
These Warriors are talented enough to win 73 games, but they don't need to prove themselves in the regular season again. Instead, they need to focus on getting better for a championship push, even if that results in a few extra losses.
And it should say a lot that the subtext of a 69-win prediction is disappointment.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all quotes obtained firsthand and stats from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math are accurate heading into games on Dec. 16.
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