NFL Picks Week 14: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks
It's beginning to look a lot like the stretch run.
I know, you thought I was going to say Christmas. Cool your jets. It'll be here soon enough. Besides, I live in the desert—it doesn't look like Christmas on Christmas.
The NFL snow globe got a wicked shake in Week 13. The Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys stumbled. The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers most certainly did not.
And the Oakland Raiders fell completely off a cliff.
This week's action will shake things up even more. There's a huge AFC North showdown in Cincy, a battle of bumbling ballclubs in the Bay Area and a big NFC tilt in the City of Brotherly Love.
As the 2014 NFL season enters its final month, here's how the National Lead and Division Lead Writers at Bleacher Report expect things to play out in Week 14.
Roll Call/Standings
1 of 17
Well, at least we were in it together Week 13.
There were three games in Week 13 that were 15-1 landslides in the eyes of our panel and a 16-0 unanimous pick—that were all dead wrong.
Um...oops.
The West Division Lead Writers (Christopher Hansen and Sean Tomlinson) tied for the week's best mark, nailing 75 percent of Week 13's games.
NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, meanwhile, maintains a two-game overall lead as we head into the month of December.
He'll be fine. I hear the second-place picker is a moron.
Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 10-6 (120-71)
Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 10-6 (126-65)
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 9-7 (115-76)
Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 9-7 (114-77)
Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 10-6 (128-63)
Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 10-6 (113-78)
Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 12-4 (114-77)
Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 10-6 (122-69)
Rivers McCown: AFC South Lead Writer 9-7 (107-84)
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 8-8 (124-67)
Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 11-5 (115-76)
Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 9-7 (122-69)
Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 9-7 (124-67)
Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 10-6 (121-70)
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 9-7 (118-73)
Sean Tomlinson: NFC West Lead Writer 12-4 (107-52)
Aggregate: 10-6 (125-66)
Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)
2 of 17
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys (15-1)
Update: Cowboys 41, Bears 28
Fans in Dallas are freaking out a little after the Cowboys' Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles dropped the team from first place in the NFC East.
On many levels, their trepidation is understandable. As things stand today, the Cowboys are on the outside looking in in the NFC, and this is not a team with a history of December success in recent years.
As in three straight seasons; from 2011 to 2013, the Cowboys needed a Week 17 win to make the playoffs. And in three straight years, the Cowboys came up short.
Well, buck up, cowboys and girls—NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon feels the Cowboys will rebound in their second straight Thursday affair:
"The Cowboys have lost ugly to the Bears each of the last two years. But having played on Thanksgiving, they're actually slightly more rested in this case. In December, that matters, especially against bad teams. And right now, Chicago is a mess.
I know, I know, Dallas is usually a mess in the final month of the season. But since 2009, Tony Romo has a 104.1 passer rating in December, which ranks behind only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.
"
NFL National Lead Writer Matt Bowen is on board:
"Given the lack of talent in the Bears secondary, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant will have opportunities to cash in on big plays after Dallas establishes the run front with DeMarco Murray. Could be a long night for the Bears at Soldier Field.
"
With the exception of NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse, our panel is right there with him.
Bears: Kruse
Cowboys: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)
3 of 17
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
It's do-or-die time for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last week's home loss to the New Orleans Saints, coupled with the Cincinnati Bengals' narrow victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leaves Pittsburgh 1.5 games back in the AFC North with four to play.
Lose Sunday in Cincinnati, and not only are the Steelers' hopes of winning the division all but gone, but Pittsburgh's chances of making the playoffs at all would take a big hit.
NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter expects a desperate Steelers team to circle the wagons on the road:
"Since Ben Roethlisberger's 12-touchdown outburst in Weeks 8 and 9, the Pittsburgh Steelers have stalled. Barely beating the woeful Tennessee Titans, losing to both the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets, they’re in simply awful form.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gutted out three straight road wins, clawing up into first place in the AFC North. With a home win against the struggling Steelers, they’ll get much closer to locking up the division crown.
That’s why I’m picking the Steelers: The NFL is weird, trends rarely last longer than three weeks and the Steelers’ volatile offensive talent is due to catch fire again.
"
However, while it was a narrow vote, the majority of our writers look for the Bengals to put what may be the final nail in Pittsburgh's playoff coffin in 2014.
Steelers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Simms
Bengals: Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Miller, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Washington Redskins (3-9)
4 of 17
The Pick: St. Louis Rams (14-2)
Break up the Rams!
In Week 13, St. Louis delivered the most decisive beating of the 2014 season, blasting the Oakland Raiders 52-0.
As quarterback Shaun Hill told The Associated Press (via ESPN), it was a fun day to be a Ram.
"I'd have to think awful hard to come up with another game that kind of started off the way that one did," Hill said. "That was certainly fun."
The Rams haven't been the same team on the road this year as at home, where they've defeated both of last year's Super Bowl participants.
But with the Rams' front seven generating tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and running back Tre Mason coming off the best game of his brief NFL career, the overwhelming majority of our voters believe the Rams will best a Washington team languishing in last place in the NFC East.
Rams: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Redskins: Freeman, Gagnon
New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10)
5 of 17
The Pick: New York Giants (11-5)
It's come to this for the New York Giants.
In a season filled with lows for Big Blue, the team managed to find a new low in Week 13, blowing a 21-0 lead to a one-win Jacksonville Jaguars squad.
Were the Giants playing anything that resembled a competent NFL team, it's highly unlikely that they would be our experts' pick.
Luckily for the Giants, as NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon points out, they aren't facing a competent NFL team:
"If the Giants are bad enough to lose to Jacksonville, they're bad enough to lose to the Titans. But Tom Coughlin and his guys have too much pride. You get the feeling they're about to stop the bleeding, and they're still a much more talented team than Tennessee.
"
And yet this pick makes me vaguely ill—the prognosticating equivalent of hitting White Castle at four in the morning.
In other words, there's a pretty good chance this is a decision I'll regret, quite possibly while sitting on the toilet.
Giants: Bowen, Davenport, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Tanier
Titans: Freeman, Frenz, Schalter, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7)
6 of 17
The Pick: New Orleans Saints (16-0)
There may not be a harder team in the NFL to figure out in 2014 than the New Orleans Saints.
After dropping three straight at home, the Saints looked to be just about done, only to then win in impressive fashion on the road in the Steel City.
The victory kept the Saints in what passes for a "race" for first place in their division, and NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski thinks the Saints will keep that momentum going Sunday in the Superdome:
"The Saints seemed to find their groove last weekend in Pittsburgh, of all places. While the NFL is a week-to-week league, Carolina already entered its evaluation period with four remaining games. The Saints, meanwhile, are at home with a chance to claim first place in the NFC South as the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the Green Bay Packers.
The Saints lost their last three games at the Superdome, but this particular contest is far too important for them to choke another away. How successful the Saints will ultimately be will depend on their running attack's effectiveness. A balanced offense with running back Mark Ingram as the team's catalyst has proved to be the Saints' winning formula this season.
"
Given how badly the Panthers have struggled this season, no one's lining up to argue with him.
Panthers: The Panthers haven't won a game since October 5. This is not good.
Saints: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
7 of 17
The Pick: Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
In Monday night's loss to the Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets set offensive football back just a bit.
Say, 40 years or so.
Granted, the Jets had success running the ball and were in a position to win the game late. However, seven completed passes in a game isn't going to earn many wins in the modern NFL.
Sure enough, the Jets lost their 10th contest of the season, and the Rex Ryan death watch is getting closer and closer to midnight.
NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier thinks that clock will keep right on ticking Sunday in the Twin Cities:
"General manager John Idzik made a bunch of splashy, wheel-spinning acquisitions in the last calendar year, from Michael Vick to Chris Johnson to Percy Harvin. But one of his worst moves was importing Breno Giacomini from Seattle.
Giacomini was one of the weak links in the Seahawks line when it suffered multiple injuries in 2013. He lacks strength and sustainability as a run-blocker, which is a big problem because the Jets want to run the football 75 percent of the time these days. He has to get covered up as a pass protector, so we get sights like Cameron Wake wrenching tight end Jeff Cumberland backward and throwing him into Geno Smith. Right tackle should not be some hard-to-fill position, but it has become a hidden problem beneath the Jets' many glaring problems.
The Vikings have a lot of depth and talent on their front four this season, and with the days when the Jets line was their only offensive strength long gone (and the Jets' run-at-all-costs desperation exposed), this game could be over before it starts.
"
In closing, the Jets, um, suck.
Jets: Frenz, Hansen, Kruse, Schottey, Simms
Vikings: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hangst, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)
8 of 17
The Pick: Miami Dolphins (9-7)
Sunday's matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins carries some of the highest stakes of any game in Week 14.
It's also one of the hardest to forecast.
Both the Dolphins and Ravens have had games this season where they looked very much like a playoff team, only to fall flat the following week.
AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz went with the home team in this one:
"I'm not buying into the Ravens this year. Four of their seven wins are against the NFC South, and another is against the Titans. Their pass defense is flawed, and if Ryan Tannehill continues to play efficiently, as he has over the past month-plus, the Dolphins should be able to pick up the win.
"
The panel narrowly agrees with Frenz, but this much is certain: The loser's playoff hopes are going to be in serious trouble.
Ravens: Bowen, Freeman, Gagnon, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Simms
Dolphins: Davenport, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)
9 of 17
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
In case you haven't heard, there's a bit of a controversy brewing in Cleveland.
After struggling badly over the past few weeks, Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer got the hook in last week's loss at Buffalo. The insertion of Johnny Manziel into his first regular-season game caused the reaction you'd expect from the media.
Bedlam.
Head coach Mike Pettine had been coy about who will start for the Browns in Week 14, but Peter King of The MMQB thinks Manziel is the smart play:
"The reasons why go beyond the 2014 season, but right now is significant too. If you’re the Browns, you’ve got to have realistic goals. Just make the playoffs. There’s no reason to think anyone in the building thinks the Browns are actually suited for a playoff run. Just give them the sixth seed, and the 2014 season would be a raging success. But to make the playoffs—to go 3-1 or better against Indy, Cincinnati, Carolina and Baltimore—would be a tremendous feat for a team as shaky as Cleveland. And can you really see Hoyer leading them to three wins in the last four? I don’t know if Manziel can, but I feel much better about his chances to do so after seeing a lot of Hoyer the last couple of weeks.
"
Well, Pettine apparently disagrees. As Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports, Pettine named Hoyer the starter for Week 14's home tilt with the Colts:
"After thorough evaluation and talking to the staff, we feel Brian gives us the best opportunity to win on Sunday. This is a football decision, and those are always going to be based on what we think is best for our team.
Brian has led our team to a 7-5 record. I'm confident that we can get the entire offense playing at the level needed to accomplish the goals we set at the beginning of the season. Those goals are still very much attainable.
"
Bleacher Report AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst doesn't think it really matters who starts under center, predicting that the Browns will upset the Colts in Cleveland:
"Yes, the Colts are in many ways the superior team, but the Browns have one major strength they can use against the Colts: the run game. It's something the Browns have shied away from in their past two games, but the pass-heavy approach has resulted in poor performances. The Browns need to get back to what worked on offense, what led them to seven wins, and that's committing to the run behind Isaiah Crowell (though he has hip troubles this week) and Terrance West.
The Colts have proved vulnerable to heavy doses of the run, and it's a great way for the Browns to either help build back Hoyer's confidence or get Manziel more comfortable at the helm.
"
Hangst isn't the only bird in the flock who went with Cleveland, but they're all out on a bit of a limb with this one.
Colts: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Browns: Hangst, McCown, Tanier
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4)
10 of 17
The Pick: Detroit Lions (16-0)
For the first quarter or so of the Detroit Lions' Thanksgiving showdown with the Chicago Bears, fans in the Motor City had some wicked heartburn. After dropping two games in a row and falling from first place in the NFC North, the Lions spotted the Bears a 14-3 lead before ripping off three unanswered touchdowns to take control in the second quarter.
The Lions dominated from there en route to a 34-17 win, and AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown feels that the Lions will build on that momentum Sunday against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
"I hate when people use this term, but it fits well with the Buccaneers: I don't know what their identity is, and I don't know that they do, either. Nominally, they're supposed to be a Lovie Smith team that was sent through a time warp from 2008, except that scheme and those tactics don't really work on their own as a defense at this point.
The Bucs have flipped between two ineffective quarterbacks and are now on the one who shouldn't have been signed in the first place again, Josh McCown. The offensive line is dreadful. Retread offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford is on indefinite leave, so complete unknown Marcus Arroyo is calling the shots. I don't really know that he knows what he's doing. Oh, and Lavonte David hasn't played for a while.
Other than that, everything is just peachy.
I have my reservations about the Lions as an actual honest-to-goodness contender, but I didn't have to think hard about them in this one.
"
The voters are unanimous in their agreement with McCown.
Buccaneers: I get the feeling that unemployment doesn't even look that bad to Bucs coach Lovie Smith right now.
Lions: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
11 of 17
The Pick: Houston Texans (15-1)
The division leads for the AFC and NFC South deserve some sort of hazard pay this year, because covering those dumpster fires disguised as divisions is enough to give a fellow PTWB.
Post-traumatic writers' block.
AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown fought through the pain to deliver his take on this thrilling affair:
"Wait, two non-Colts AFC South teams are facing each other coming off wins? Who allowed that to happen?
If you didn't watch—and I'm assuming you didn't, because I look at the page views my AFC South articles get—the Texans dominated an inferior opponent, and the Jaguars were given 14 free points by The Eli Manning Fumbling Experience. Until I see Blake Bortles string together two good drives in a row, I'm going to consider them an inferior opponent. JJ Watt against the Jaguars offensive line is probably going to be deemed illegal when the NFL's personal conduct policy is completed.
...Which isn't to say the Jaguars aren't capable of playing well on defense and reaping the benefits of facing Ryan Fitzpatrick. I just don't see how Jacksonville is going to move the ball.
"
Now, go read some of McCown's articles.
It's been a long year, and my boy needs a hug.
Texans: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Jaguars: Schalter
Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)
12 of 17
The Pick: Denver Broncos (16-0)
The Buffalo Bills are one of a number of AFC squads facing virtual "must-win" games in Week 14 if they are to keep their hopes of a first playoff trip this century intact.
Unfortunately, the game is in Denver, and they aren't playing the Rams.
No, the Bills have the unenviable task of trying to down Peyton Manning and the Broncos at Sports Authority Field. In the opinion of AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen, that upset isn't happening:
"The Buffalo Bills might have the toughest defense in the league, but the Denver Broncos get the benefit of playing the game in their friendly digs at Mile High. The Bills boast a pass defense as good or better than the Broncos' last two opponents—the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins. Both opponents were able to slow quarterback Peyton Manning down but allowed over 200 rushing yards.
It could be a little more difficult to run on the Bills. Statistically speaking, Buffalo is the best run defense the Broncos have played since rushing for 36 yards against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3. All the numbers suggest the Broncos could be in for a fight, but the Bills are also similar to the San Francisco 49ers team that the Broncos blew out at home in Week 7, 42-17.
The Broncos haven't lost at home this season and are well-equipped to score on even the best defenses. Don't expect a blowout, but the Broncos should be able to get the victory to keep pace in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
"
The number of dissenting voices is exactly the same as the number of people who were sad to see Here Comes Honey Boo-Boo canceled.
Zero.
Bills: Buck up, Bills fans—2015 will be here before you know it.
Broncos: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3)
13 of 17
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) ***COIN FLIP***
Speaking of fanbases that are reaching for the antacids, supporters of the Arizona Cardinals are more than a little freaked out right now. Two weeks ago, the Redbirds sat perched atop the entire NFL. Then came back-to-back losses in Seattle and Atlanta, games in which the Arizona offense had all kinds of problems moving the ball.
Now, with quarterback Drew Stanton slumping badly and the Cardinals more banged up than ever, Arizona plays host to a Kansas City team that's one of a large pack of 7-5 AFC teams fighting for a wild-card spot.
NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson says all the adversity the Cardinals have faced in 2014 appears to be catching up with them:
"Drew Stanton struggled with simple throws in Week 13 while often facing little pressure. So I can only assume he'll turn into dust while attempting (and failing) to cope with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Potentially missing Andre Ellington won't exactly help matters for Arizona, as an already atrocious Cardinals rushing offense averaging a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry will decline even further into nothingness.
"
The panel is on board with Tomlinson, although it took a coin flip to break an 8-8 tie.
Heads for the visitors, tails for the home team—fair as I could make it.
Chiefs: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Kruse, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson, Washington (George, the quarter I used)
Cardinals: Bowen, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Tanier
Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)
14 of 17
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
You know, it wasn't all that long ago that the Seattle Seahawks' chances of repeating as Super Bowl champions were all but down to none. The Seahawks were 6-4, three games back of the Cardinals and coming off a loss to Kansas City. Many pundits and fans declared that the kings were dead.
Someone forgot to tell the kings.
Back-to-back 19-3 wins, coupled with two losses by the Cardinals, have the Seahawks only a single game out of first place and squarely in the wild-card hunt.
It doesn't get any easier for the Seahawks in Week 14, when they'll travel across the country to face a Philadelphia Eagles team coming off an impressive win of their own in Dallas on Thanksgiving.
The majority of our panelists, including AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, sided with the visitors in one of Week 14's biggest games:
"A fascinating game. We've got Chip Kelly's Instant Noodles Offense (just add mediocre players, it doesn't matter!) against a healthy Legion of Boom that just kicked around the 49ers and Cardinals. Oh, and I guess the Eagles defense and Seattle offense can play too.
I've just got it in my head that Seattle is peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs. The Eagles defense doesn't present a big enough challenge to make me think Seattle can't score 21-24 points with a run game and zero creativity in the passing game. Mostly, though, Mark Sanchez against the Seattle secondary? The magic carpet ride of competence ends this Sunday.
"
However, Bleacher Report NFL Feedback Editor Kay Jennings made a point to offer a couple of tidbits that would appear to bode well for the Iggles:
"As head coaches, Chip has not lost to Pete Carroll. Chip also beat Russell Wilson in their one encounter at the 2012 Rose Bowl.
Just sayin'...
"
In any event, this one has the makings of a great game.
Seahawks: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Eagles: Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Miller, Schottey—and Jennings.
San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11)
15 of 17
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers (16-0)
This one feels a lot like one of those 16-0 votes that winds up coming back to bite us all in the butt.
Granted, on paper, this looks like a game the San Francisco 49ers should win going away. The Oakland Raiders have won all of a single game, and last week, the Rams destroyed Oakland 52-0.
Fifty-two to zip, folks.
AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen wrote that the 49ers are the lesser of two evils in this contest:
"Is it the battle of the bay or the battle of the bad? The San Francisco 49ers got blown out on Thanksgiving in front of the entire country and gave everyone a much-needed nap to sleep off their turkey hangovers. The Raiders got stuffed so badly that the game should never be on television again—it was that ugly.
49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh's relationship with the front office has reached the boiling point, but the Raiders are already well done. They've fired their coach. Their second head coach—Tony Sparano—has one win but hasn't been able to do much to improve a bad football team. The Raiders may actually trade for the Harbaugh sideshow at the end of the season—they're that desperate.
The 49ers are still 7-5 in a tough division, and the Raiders are still an ugly 1-11. As much as you might throw out records in a rivalry game, the 49ers need this one a lot more than the Raiders, and they're talented. The Raiders could put up a fight as they have done at times, but the 49ers should cruise to victory.
"
That may well all be true, but the 49ers looked really bad against the Seahawks, and it hasn't been that long since the Raiders stunned the Kansas City Chiefs at the Coliseum.
Another upset may be unlikely, but it isn't out of the question.
49ers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Raiders: The Raiders were just embarrassed by a Rams team that entered Week 13 4-7. Anyone picking them here would probably have rated a random drug test.
New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)
16 of 17
The Pick: New England Patriots (14-2)
The New England Patriots are running the proverbial gauntlet.
In Week 14, the Pats travel to battle an 8-4 San Diego Chargers team coming off one of its biggest victories of the season in Baltimore. It's the fifth straight game for the Patriots against a team that would be in the postseason if the season ended today.
The Patriots are 3-1 so far during this brutal stretch, suffering their first loss since September a week ago at Lambeau Field.
AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz predicts that the Pats will get back on the winning track Sunday night:
"Over the past month, the Patriots have blown out three playoff contenders and lost to one more by five points when playing their absolute worst. In that same time frame, the Chargers have been shut out by the Dolphins and have squeaked by the Raiders, Rams and Ravens. As long as the Patriots stay committed to the running game, they should be able to get back on track.
"
There were a pair of dissenting votes, but as a whole, our writers are squarely in Darth Hoodie's camp this week.
Embrace the Dark Side.
Patriots: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Chargers: Kruse, McCown
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
17 of 17
The Pick: Green Bay Packers (16-0)
The folks at ESPN are billing this game as a battle of first-place NFC teams. Technically, that's correct, but the Atlanta Falcons are a first-place team in name only.
The 5-7 Falcons got arguably their biggest win of the season last week against the Arizona Cardinals, but downing a banged-up Cardinals team doesn't change the fact that the Falcons still rank dead last in the NFL in pass defense.
As NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski relayed, that's most assuredly a problem headed into a matchup against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field:
"A matchup between division leaders at this point in the season would be far more exciting if the Falcons weren't 5-7 overall. The Falcons are coming off their best all-around performance of the season, though. However, the ability to stop a Cardinals team led by Drew Stanton in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome is far different from facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense at Lambeau Field.
Rodgers must be salivating while watching film of Atlanta's 32nd-ranked defense. Matt Ryan will have to play out of his mind and go shot-for-shot with Rodgers to keep the Falcons in this contest.
"
NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse agrees:
"The Packers have an aura of invincibility at Lambeau Field this season. While Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is a game-breaking talent, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are just too dominant at home to lose to a 5-7 football team.
"
Combine that porous defense with Rodgers' flawless play at home this year (he has yet to throw an interception at Lambeau this season), and that "race" in the NFC South appears set to get even uglier.
There's a very real possibility that 6-10 will win that division.
The NFC South—feel the excitement!
Falcons: The Falcons are allowing about 285 yards per game through the air. Given how Rodgers is playing, he may have that by halftime—and I'm not kidding.
Packers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
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