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NFL Picks Week 11: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks

Gary DavenportNov 12, 2014

As it sometimes does, the NFL taught us all a lesson in Week 10.

We know nothing.

If you added together the number of people who picked the Cleveland Browns to be all alone in first place in the AFC North 10 weeks in, then multiplied it by the number of people who thought a one-win New York Jets team would down the Pittsburgh Steelers with ease in Week 10, you would have exactly zero people.

It's what makes the NFL so exciting and maddening, all at the same time.

It certainly doesn't make it any easier for the Division Lead and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report to predict each week's games, but that didn't stop them from trying.

Here's how that esteemed group expects Week 11 to play out.

Roll Call/Standings

1 of 15

There may have been a few upsets across the NFL a week ago, but the panel had arguably their best week to date.

Not only did the group post a very impressive 10-3 aggregate mark, but not a single individual posted a record of worse than 8-5.

National Lead Writer Ty Schalter, who correctly predicted the Jets would stun the Steelers in Week 10, paced the group with a stellar 11-2 record.

Chris Simms maintains his overall lead, but NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon is officially breathing down his neck, now trailing Simms by only a single game.

Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 8-5 (91-55)

Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 10-3 (95-51)

Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 10-3 (91-55)

Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 8-5 (85-61)

Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 10-3 (98-48)

Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 8-5 (85-61)

Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 9-4 (85-61)

Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 8-5 (94-52)

Rivers McCown: AFC South Lead Writer 9-4 (84-62)

Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 9-4 (96-50)

Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 11-2 (86-60)

Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 9-4 (95-51)

Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 9-4 (99-47)

Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 9-4 (91-55)

Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 8-5 (88-58)

Sean TomlinsonNFC West Lead Writer 10-3 (75-39)

Aggregate: 10-3 (95-51)

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

2 of 15

The Pick: Miami Dolphins (13-3)

The Thursday night battle between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is both a great way to kick off Week 11 and an indictment of everything that's wrong with Thursday Night Football.

The game should be an exciting matchup of improved AFC East teams fighting for their playoff lives. Instead, it's as apt as not to be a slop-filled mess of a game played by two teams on a short turnaround.

If nothing else there's been no shortage of bulletin board material. As James Walker of ESPN reports, Bills cornerback Leodis McKelvin guaranteed a Buffalo win, using some, uh, colorful language.

The guarantee was dismissed by Miami safety Jimmy Wilson:

"

For someone to just jump off saying things like that before the game being played, I don't know if he's trying to rally his team together or what they're trying to do. It just seems cheap. But we're not worried about it. We're going to go handle our business. We know how important these AFC games are to win. We got to avenge ourselves.

"

NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon thinks the Bills might just be onto something. "The Bills won at Miami last season," Gagnon said, "and I have a bad feeling about that Dolphins offensive line going up against a jacked Bills defensive front without left tackle Branden Albert."

However, the overwhelming majority of our writers went with the Dolphins, predicting that Miami will do their talking on the field at home.

Bills: Freeman, Gagnon, McCown

Dolphins: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

3 of 15

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Man, oh man, the Chicago Bears.

After allowing over 50 points in back-to-back blowout losses, the Bears are officially imploding. The airwaves in the Windy City are filled with calls for the heads of head coach Marc Trestman and quarterback Jay Cutler.

While speaking with Michael C. Wright of ESPN, Trestman allowed that Cutler hasn't played well of late, but Trestman said the problems in Chicago go beyond the quarterback position:

"

He didn't play well enough yesterday, and we didn't play well enough. I'm certain he'd take accountability for that. But it's very clear he did not play well enough yesterday. We can't sugarcoat that. At the same time, we didn't play collectively well enough as a team.

"

In related news, water is wet, and according to breaking news, grass is, in fact, green.

Unfortunately, NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter doesn't see things getting any better Sunday at Soldier Field:

"

Normally, I’d say that as bad as Chicago looked in Week 10, there’s no way a team full of professionals doesn’t bounce back (see: Buccaneers, Tampa Bay, after the Atlanta blowout). But the Bears have been even worse at home than on the road, and the Vikings are picking up steam. Can’t see Minnesota losing this one.

"

Schalter will get no argument here. Bob from Joliet, you're on the air.

Language, Bob. Language.

Vikings: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Simms, Tanier, Tomlinson

Bears: Hangst, Hansen, Miller, Schottey, Sobleski

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Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)

4 of 15

The Pick: Cleveland Browns (14-2)

The 2014 Cleveland Browns just might be for real.

After blasting the Bengals in Cincinnati last week, the 6-3 Browns sit all alone in first place in the AFC North. It's the latest in the season the Browns have held the top spot in their division in two decades.

As NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman wrote, the times they are-a-changin' on the shores of Lake Erie:

"

The Browns have been mired in a tar pit of muck and sadness for so long that their fans don't know how to see a good team right in front of their eyes.

There's no "yeah, but" here with the Browns. No ceiling to fall. No escape hatch. No impending doom. Browns fans have to get used to this important fact: You have a good team. You do. You really do.

"

AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst expects the good times to keep on rolling when the Brown host the Houston Texans this week:

"

It's Ryan Mallett's turn to be the Houston Texans' quarterback, and it couldn't be at a worse time—on the road, against the Cleveland Browns. I'd say this game has the threat of a trap for the Browns, except that the Browns know all too well about inopportune losses. This could inoculate them against a home loss on Sunday. That, and, of course, the defense, which has been playing well, as has the run game, as has Brian Hoyer. The Browns are in first place in the competitive AFC North for a reason; that reason is why the Texans won't come into town and win.

"

There are a couple dissenters, but overall the panel agrees with her.

Texans: Schalter, Tanier

Browns: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson

Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-6-1)

5 of 15

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

The AFC North is the pinnacle of competitiveness in 2014. All four teams have winning records 10 weeks into the season.

The NFC South, on the other hand, is the pinnacle of...other stuff.

Not a single team in the division has won as many games as they've lost, and that's not going to change when the floundering Falcons and pitiful Panthers meet Sunday to decide who stinks slightly less.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier believes that the Falcons will build on last week's win over Tampa:

"

If the Saints lose to the Bengals, the winner of this game is in first place in the NFC South: The Falcons hold a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Saints, while the Panthers have a tie that gives them a percentage edge. That's scary, especially after what we saw on Monday night. Andy Dalton should prevent the Earth from teetering off its axis with another signature performance against a tough opponent, but watch out for the Falcons down the stretch if they beat Cam Newton and the Argonauts: They will be 4-0 in the division, with a little momentum and a chance to go .500 and cause tiebreaker headaches if they can work some wins against Brian Hoyer or Drew Stanton in the weeks to come.

"

The NFC Southfeel the exsuckment!

Falcons: Bowen, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Kruse, McCown, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Panthers: Davenport, Freeman, Hansen, Miller, Schalter, Schottey

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)

6 of 15

The Pick: New Orleans Saints (16-0)

Back in 2010, the New Orleans Saints went 11-5, only to be bounced from the playoffs when they had to travel to face a Seattle team that "won" the NFC West at 7-9.

It was a game that will go down in NFL history for featuring its own earthquake.

It may be that the Saints are trying to repay the favor in 2014, as, despite a 4-5 record that includes a Week 10 loss at home to the San Francisco 49ers, the Saints still look like the class of a bad NFC South.

This week the Saints face the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Andy Dalton, who's coming off arguably the worst game of his NFL career, a three-interception fiasco last week at home against the Browns.

AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst thinks that the "Red Rifle's" misfires may doom the Bengals yet again:

"

New Orleans is a different beast at home than on the road, while the same can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals, who travel to the Superdome this week. We all know there's a Good Andy Dalton and a Bad Andy Dalton and though it's rare to see the Bad in back-to-back weeks, the daunting task of heading to New Orleans could bring that out again. Dalton drawn into a shootout will send him right into the mouth of the beast. The Saints get this win.

"

The voters are unanimous in their agreement with her.

Bengals: Did you see last week's game? Dalton was awful beyond horrible. Babies cried. Flowers wilted.

Saints: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)

7 of 15

The Pick: Washington Redskins (16-0)

Nothing says "NFL excitement" quite like a Week 11 showdown between a pair of last-place teams.

That's what we have in the nation's capital, where a truly awful Tampa Bay Buccaneers team will lock horns with a Washington Redskins squad that isn't a whole lot better.

After the Buccaneers fell to 1-8 with last week's loss to Atlanta, starting quarterback Josh McCown was visibly shaken, according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:

"

'One and eight,' McCown said, his voice cracking. 'One and eight and, uh, one and eight. You want to give your teammates and the coaches and the fans and your family and everybody here better than that. It just hurts. It hurts.'

"

Unfortunately for McCown and the Buccaneers, not a single pundit picked the team to put a stop to the misery in Week 11.

And Josh, there's no crying in football either.

Buccaneers: You'd cry too if you played for the Bucs.

Redskins: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)

8 of 15

The Pick: Denver Broncos (16-0)

So far as lopsided-looking games go in Week 11, it doesn't get more askew than in the Gateway City, where the St. Louis Rams will play host to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

However, the Rams have already played giant-killers once at home this year, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks back in Week 7.

Ian Eagle of CBS Sports doesn't see lightning striking twice Sunday:

"

Any Jeff Fisher team will have a lot of fight. Defensively, they are competitive and their front is impressive. They’re just going against a juggernaut in the Broncos and that’s a tall order. To find a way to beat Peyton Manning, especially when you don’t have the offense to keep up…if you’re going to beat the Broncos at this stage, you’re going to have to score a bunch of points. St. Louis has not shown that they are capable of doing that.

"

NFL National Lead Writer Matt Bowen echoed a similar refrain:

"

Gregg Williams will have a game plan with a solid mix of pressure and coverage to challenge Manning and the Broncos in specific game situations. But you have to score points to compete with Denver. Can Shaun Hill and the Rams generate enough big plays versus Jack Del Rio's defense? I don't see it.

"

Given the lopsided vote from our writers, it appears there's a lot of echoing going on this week.

Broncos: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Rams: In the alternate ending to David and Goliath, Goliath throws for 500 yards and then embarrasses his beleaguered backup by pulling a sideline psych-out.

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

9 of 15

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers (10-6)

It wasn't that long ago that the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants battled with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

The Giants won that game (and Super Bowl XLVI), but while the 49ers have remained a playoff fixture since (including a Super Bowl trip of their own), the Giants have faded into mediocrity.

In fact, as Steve Serby of the New York Post reports, it's becoming more evident by the day that the 2014 season will be Tom Coughlin's last as head coach of the Giants:

"

You hate to see Tom Coughlin go out this way, with a team that flies in the face of so many of his good old-fashioned football values, a team that has lost its way since Super Bowl XLVI and is staring at another meaningless December inside an abandoned MetLife Stadium.

The problem for Coughlin, with his team so soft physically and emotionally, won’t be so much missing the playoffs for a third straight season and fifth time in six seasons, the problem will be whether a proud ownership that loves him will want him to lead the rebuilding of a decaying team at a time when he will turn 69 years old.

"

Perhaps a late-season surge could save Coughlin's job, but NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon doesn't see the Giants circling the wagons Sunday against San Fran:

"

Tempting to go Giants here considering how inconsistent the 49ers have been, as well as the fact they're on the road for the second straight week. But San Francisco is an amazing 8-1 in the Eastern time zone since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2011, and the Giants are just too depleted to compete right now.

"

The panel is in agreement that Big Blue will be singing the blues again in Week 11.

49ers: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, Miller, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Giants: Freeman, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Schalter, Schottey

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

10 of 15

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

The Seattle Seahawks may have rolled the New York Giants last week, but the game didn't go off without a hitch.

As Nate Scott of USA Today reports, Taima, the team's avian mascot, issued a public apology after diverting from his pregame flight path to land upon a fan's head:

"

I apologize to my family, fellow birds everywhere, the Seahawks organization and fans. I am embarrassed by the pregame incident and the poor judgment I showed. Please understand my actions were not consistent with the type of bird I hope to become. Go Me's!

"

Yes, the bird apologized. What, is that weird?

This week the Seahawks take the show on the road, and while the team hasn't been nearly as formidable on the road as at home with Russell Wilson at quarterback, NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson expects the Seahawks to get the win in Kansas City:

"

Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are scary while firing off the edge with their combined 16 sacks. But they can be neutralized if the Seahawks remain true to their core offensive identity as they did in Week 10, and hammer away on the ground. The Chiefs are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, tied for the league's second-worst pace, though they still haven't given up a rushing touchdown.

"

It's a close call, but our experts agree with him.

Seahawks: Bowen, Davenport, Gagnon, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Simms, Tanier, Tomlinson

Chiefs: Freeman, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)

11 of 15

The Pick: San Diego Chargers (16-0)

The talk has begun.

With the Oakland Raiders mired at 0-9, some have started to question whether the Raiders will join the 2008 Detroit Lions in NFL infamy as the only teams ever to go 0-16.

ESPN's Bill Williamson thinks the Raiders just might pull it off:

"

The Raiders are not progressing. There has been some excitement in the organization because the Raiders have been more competitive since Dennis Allen was fired as coach after four games. But this was the Raiders' most lopsided loss of the season. After trailing 10-6 in the second quarter, Peyton Manning and crew took over and hammered Oakland. The Raiders are now 0-9 and on the downhill path toward 0-16. Oakland has lost 15 straight games dating back to last November. It has been 51 weeks since this team last won. The song remains the same: Oakland is weak on offense, very beatable on defense and mistake prone.

"

This week, the Raiders travel to San Diego to face a Chargers team that's had two weeks to figure out how to put a stop to a three-game losing streak.

One way to do it is to play the Raiders, and AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen feels the Bolts will halt that skid on Sunday:

"

The San Diego Chargers have lost three straight, but they are coming off their bye week and playing the 0-9 Oakland Raiders. If that isn't the elixir to their recent woes nothing is. The Chargers can trace their struggles back to a 31-28 win over the Raiders in Week 6, so a big victory could go a long way to erasing a month of lackluster play and set them up from a run in the second half.

The lowly Raiders have played the Chargers tough at times, but won't have the benefit of a bye week to prepare. This time, the Chargers will be the team that is well rested. For a team as bad as the Raiders, they need all the help they can get. They do get the added benefit of the Raider Nation's partial takeover of Qualcomm Stadium, but it wouldn't be surprising if some of the Raiders fans simply chose to save themselves the embarrassment by watching the game at home.

If there is some good news for the Raiders, it's that their offense played their best football against the Chargers in Week 6. Their historically inept running game had 114 yards that day and Derek Carr threw a season-high four touchdowns passes in the team's closest loss this season. Division games can get interesting and the Raiders made a game of it last time, but it's hard to see how the Chargers don't electrocute the Raiders on Sunday.

"

And there you go.

Raiders: Look at the bright side. The 2015 NFL draft is less than six months away.

Chargers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

12 of 15

The Pick: Detroit Lions (11-5)

The Arizona Cardinals are 8-1, the best record in the NFL. And yet there's more than a little uneasiness in the Valley of the Sun.

That's because two days after signing a three-year, $50 million contract extension, starting quarterback Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending ACL tear. The injury thrusts Drew Stanton back into the starting lineup against his former team.

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports thinks that the Redbirds remain very much in the championship mix with Stanton at the helm:

"

Drew Stanton isn't Palmer, which is why the Cardinals signed Palmer to a three-year extension Friday, but he is capable of winning games and he fits with coach Bruce Arians' deep-ball scheme.

Stanton showed off that arm in winning two games earlier this year when Palmer was out, going 2-1 and the only loss came when he left he left with a concussion. Stanton came off the bench Sunday against the Rams and promptly fired a deep ball to John Brown for a 48-yard touchdown strike. I loved the way Stanton climbed the pocket to make the throw, looking every bit like a fit in the Arizona scheme.

When I think of this situation, it brings up one name: Jeff Hostetler. In 1990, when Phil Simms went down with a broken ankle, Hostetler came off the bench to start the final two games and lead the New York Giants to a Super Bowl victory.

"

Where this week is concerned, however, the majority of our writers think that Stanton and the Cardinals could run into trouble against the league's top-ranked defense.

I'll confess I'm one of the minority who picked the Cardinals. Time after time, this team has suffered injuries and personnel losses. But it has always weathered those storms.

Bruce Arians' teams just don't know how to give up.

Lions: Bowen, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson

Cardinals: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, McCown, Tanier

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)

13 of 15

The Pick:  Green Bay Packers (15-1)

Fans of the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles will no doubt view this pick as an affront to their first-place team.

First, y'all need to stop taking everything so personally. It's bad for your systolic and whatnot.

Second, Chris Simms was the lone voter who took the Eagles, and picks where he goes against the flow have had a tendency to work out for him this year. I suspect he's a warlock. Either that or he really knows football. But probably the warlock thing.

Third, the vote isn't so much an indictment of the Eagles as it's a testimonial to just how good the Packers looked at Lambeau last Sunday night.

As NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse wrote:

"

Mark Sanchez going into a cold, snowy Lambeau Field and beating the Packers would be one of the biggest stories of the year. But Aaron Rodgers is just too good at home to pick Sanchez and the Eagles. Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns against zero picks—for a 140.8 passer rating—at Lambeau Field in 2014.

"

In fact, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com (via NFL.com's Marc Sessler) went so far as to call the Packers the class of the NFC. "The Packers' passing game is the most explosive in all of football," Brooks said. "This is a team that is dynamic in every way, shape and form."

Throw in a defense that moved Clay Matthews inside and played their best game of the season in Week 10, and it's awfully hard to pick against the Pack at home.

Eagles: Simms

Packers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

14 of 15

The Pick: New England Patriots (10-6)

The late slate of games in Week 11 features some doozies, and it carries over into Sunday night's battle of star signal-callers.

In the red corner, we have Tom Brady, who has guided the Patriots to five straight wins since they were written off as dead after getting blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Indy head coach Chuck Pagano told ESPN's Mike Wells he's well-aware the Colts will have their hands full with the Golden Boy.

“We’re going to face one of the best of all time,” Pagano said. “This guy is a first-ballot, no-brainer Hall of Famer. You just have to try to do the best you can to slow him down.”

Of course, the Colts have a pretty good quarterback of their own in Andrew Luck, who has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate in his third NFL season.

Still, as AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz pointed out, Luck has struggled in his young career against the Pats:

"

Bill Belichick has owned Andrew Luck thus far in his young career. The former first-rounder has four touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 58.2 passer rating against the Patriots in two career games. The Patriots are playing some of the best pass defense we've seen from them in years. That equation could add up to another dominant performance by the Patriots against Luck.

"

Perhaps it's those struggles that swung the vote, but despite the Colts hosting the game our voters expect the Patriots to, for the second straight game, win a battle of the AFC's very best.

Patriots: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Tanier, Tomlinson

Colts: Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Sobleski

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)

15 of 15

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (16-0)

Good luck figuring out the Pittsburgh Steelers.

One week the Steelers look like they can hang with any team in the NFL, laying 51 points on the Indianapolis Colts back in Week 8.

Then comes the faceplant. The Steelers are the only team in the league to lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and last week, they snapped the New York Jets' eight-game losing streak, falling flat in a 20-13 loss.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin was not a happy camper after the game, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN):

"

There's nothing mystical about the outcome of that football game. We talked all week about why that team struggled: because they were minus in the turnover ratio. ... Well, they weren't today. They were plus-4. You're going to lose football games when you're minus-4 in the turnover ratio, and we did today.

"

Still, while the Steelers have been up and down this season, the Titans have just been down, with only a single win (over the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars) since shocking the Chiefs in Week 1.

Given that, the panel is unified in their belief that the Steelers will get things back on track as Week 11 draws to a close.

Steelers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Titans: Even after Pittsburgh lost to the Jets and Bucs, no dice. Tells you all you need to know about the 2014 Titans.

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