Every NBA Team's Updated Win-Loss Prediction
Readjusting expectations is paramount to NBA fandom.
Few teams are exactly as good, bad or ordinary as expected. So the importance of revisiting the competitive landscape every once in a while to get a sense of how each squad is faring cannot be overstated.
And with that, we bring you updated win-loss projections for the league's 30 franchises.
These adjusted predictions take everything under the sun, and then some, into consideration: current pace, injuries, recent successes and failures, trade rumors, tanking potential, conference playoff pictures and anything in between.
Though the likelihood that a team enters seller's mode will shape which squads lose ground along their present trajectory, the prospect of impact acquisitions won't facilitate win-total boons. It was one thing to assume the Phoenix Suns would deal Eric Bledsoe earlier in the year. It would have been another to assess the Milwaukee Bucks' situation as if they already acquired him before they ever did.
Where will the biggest record adjustments take place? Can the Boston Celtics hold on to the NBA's highest win total? Should the Oklahoma City Thunder get a significant bump over their current pace? Should we expect any of the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic to tank their way toward rock-bottom?
Let's find out together.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 24-58
Current Pace: 19-63
New Projection: 21-61
Straddling the oft-nonexistent line between entertaining and tanking is difficult. The ones that do it earn brownie points playing at warp speed and launching a boatload of three-pointers.
The Atlanta Hawks don't do either. They aren't hoisting an inordinate number triples and fall outside the top 10 in pace. At least, knowing how awful their half-court offense tends to be, they should be pushing the ball after opponent misses.
Of course, they need to hit the glass for this to work, which they don't. They're dead last in defensive rebounding percentage, in large part because they aren't a beefy bunch and injuries have ripped their way through the frontcourt. And when they do chase down misses, they're not off to the races. They're near the bottom five in fast-break frequency following a defensive rebound, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Atlanta still falls under the "watchable" umbrella on most nights. John Collins' bounce helps. Have you seen his reload time when he goes up for boards? He looks like he jumps twice without revisiting solid ground. His return from a shoulder injury will restore some of the team's watchability.
Ditto for Dewayne Dedmon, who has the go-ahead from three-point land, when he comes back from a left leg injury. Basketball purists will get their jollies when seeing DeAndre' Bembry and Taurean Prince orchestrate the occasional pick-and-roll.
Dennis Schroder remains the NBA's fastest roller-coaster ride and anchored a near-average offense when in the lineup before the Collins and Dedmon absences. Tyler Cavanaugh gets minutes over Miles Plumlee. Isaiah Taylor is becoming a thing. The Luke Babbitt bandwagon has some room left for the fad-lovers.
Fun experiments don't translate to victories, though. The Hawks will lose a lot of games, mostly by design, even at full strength. And they might get worse. Babbitt, Dedmon and Marco Belinelli figure to draw interest from contending buyers at the Feb. 8 trade deadline. Solid coaching and hungry up-and-comers just barely keep the Hawks in line for 20-plus dubyas.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 52-30
Current Pace: 65-17
New Projection: 60-22
Bask in the Boston Celtics' scorching-hot start. Seriously, do it. They're more legitimate than facade. They've propped up a league-best defense and escaped enough close calls to warrant benefit-of-the-doubt vibes.
But their 65-win pace won't last forever. It can't. They've played one of the five easiest schedules. The road toward an in-your-face-LeBron James dynasty will get tougher.
And how will the Celtics hold up when it does? Their 14-5 record in games when neither side is trailing or leading by more than five points entering the final five minutes is spectacular. Otherworldly, even. But it also means more than two-thirds of their games have hung in the balance down the stretch, which verges on a red flag when measured against a favorable schedule.
Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum both won't shoot 58 percent or better in crunch time for the entire year. Tatum, a rookie who's hitting three-pointers at a 50 percent clip, eventually has to start missing some (right?). Boston does a nice job of limiting long-range attempts at the other end, particularly from the corners. But opponents continue to shoot uncharacteristically low percentages when left alone beyond the arc.
Some things will give. Al Horford's Defensive Player of the Year moxie might be one of them. Jaylen Brown's 39.5 percent three-point shooting, too. Irving could revert to disinterested and, at times, completely oblivious on the defensive end.
Boston nevertheless cannot be cut down too far while it waits for regression. Head coach Brad Stevens, having spent ample time at the collegiate level, is perfectly suited to guide a roster fraught with turnover and youth. The Celtics are good, maybe great, in a bubble. He makes them better.
Sixty wins doesn't feel like a stretch—not after what we've seen, and most certainly not in the upside-down Eastern Conference.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 28-54
Current Pace: 33-49
New Projection: 31-51
Leaving the Brooklyn Nets on their current 33-win trajectory is a genuine temptation.
They try hard. They allocate more of their shots to three-pointers than anyone other than the Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets and Miami Heat. They overwhelm teams with their length. They catch should-be contenders sleeping (shouts to Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Portland).
Caps on minutes, injuries, a shaky backup point guard situation and the Jahlil Okafor acquisition ultimately spell death for a much better forecast.
Jeremy Lin is done for the season with a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee, and a concrete timetable hasn't been provided for D'Angelo Russell's return from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. The Nets don't have the ancillary playmakers to offset this strain.
Spencer Dinwiddie is a damn stud; he seldom turns the ball over when in the lane, and Brooklyn scores like the seventh-best offense when he plays. But head coach Kenny Atkinson isn't letting anyone clock in for 30 minutes per game, and the stretches in which he's forced to turn elsewhere aren't pretty. The Nets' most-used lineup without Dinwiddie, Lin or Russell is basically operating at league-worst levels of offensive efficiency.
Integrating Okafor makes for a more tenuous dynamic. General manager Sean Marks was smart to take a flier on his services, but incorporating a plodding post-up brute into the NBA's third-fastest offense isn't mindless work.
That implementation will take time. Ball-handlers such as Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Caris LeVert must adjust. The learning curve involved will cost the Nets wins—on top of whatever victories that injuries, both present and future, will bilk from them.
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Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 42-40
Current Pace: 32-50
New Projection: 35-47
Injuries aren't doing the Charlotte Hornets any favors. Nicolas Batum missed more than half the season with elbow trouble. Michael Carter-Williams hasn't been much more available (and remains non-entity on offense). Kemba Walker, far and away the team's most valuable player, sat for two games with a shoulder injury.
Dirty-work extraordinaire Cody Zeller is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus in his left knee. Frank Kaminsky has dealt with a sprained ankle. Unlucky turns haven't even spared head coach Steve Clifford. He's away from the team while dealing with undisclosed health issues.
Give the Hornets a full cast, and they should do better. Traces of their usual identity exist even now, amid a fractured rotation. They protect the ball, seldom send opponents to the free-throw line and are within striking distance of a top-10 finish in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Things will turn quickly for them if the offense ever gets its act together. On a semi-related note: Don't hold your breath.
Charlotte is getting slightly better at generating points without Walker in recent weeks but still scores like the Association's worst machine when he grabs a breather. Look at the Hornets' offensive ratings and ranks when running out their other playmaking options without Walker:
Lamb has been the best player of this quartet, despite his performance without Walker. Monk is a last resort these days. Carter-Williams will never be an offensive plus, let alone an effective soloist. Batum has now struggled as the alpha playmaker for more than two years. The Hornets are on teardown notice as a result and won't sniff 40 wins without an about-face from non-Walker lineups.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 20-62
Current Pace: 19-63
New Projection: 15-67
Sit tight, Luka Doncic. The Chicago Bulls are coming for you.
Cobbling together the league's worst roster over the summer has resulted in the NBA's worst record. Don't you just love it when things work out?
Finally getting Zach LaVine back from his knee injury should tack on a couple wins to the bottom line. Standout performances from the recently healed Nikola Mirotic could do the same. And Chicago isn't without silver linings now.
Rookie Lauri Markkanen looked ahead of schedule through mid-November. He'll benefit from whatever attention defenses pay LaVine and Mirotic. Denzel Valentine has emerged as a nice secondary playmaker and lights-out sniper. Kris Dunn has been one of the Bulls' better three-point shooters (non-Mirotic division) on career-high volume.
No one on this team, however, will rescue the Bulls from the depths of offensive purgatory. They're last in points scored per 100 possessions. The distance between them and the 29th-place Sacramento Kings has only closed thanks to a few recent detonations against the Celtics, Hornets and Knicks.
Crystal-balling 15 wins for them is not egregious. Expecting them to inch closer toward 20 would be.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 55-27
Current Pace: 58-24
New Projection: 57-25
Is there anything more LeBron James-second-era Cleveland Cavaliers than beginning the season 5-7 with a 30th-ranked defense and a broken bundle of starting lineups, only to flirt with a 60-win pace before Christmas?
Stealing a few victories from their current orbit has nothing to do with doubting their recent win streak. Maybe they don't play half-competent, fully engaged defense the rest of the way. But their bench's offensive production is for real, and not even the most questionable lineup decisions will keep a James-headlined starting rotation from above-average output.
Cleveland's expected drop has more—or everything—to do with upcoming integrations.
Remove whatever the heck is going on with Derrick Rose from the equation, and the Cavaliers still have to, eventually, make room for Tristan Thompson (calf) and Isaiah Thomas (hip). Throw Iman Shumpert (knee) in there, too. Thomas' season debut will be especially tricky since he's never before played with James.
"I play a lot of 2K," the four-time MVP said of preparing for work beside Thomas, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "I've said this before. I play a lot of NBA 2K. It's the most realistic basketball game you could ever play. I mix and match a lot of lineup changes and things of that nature to see how we can be really good. I've done that."
Far be it from me, or you, or any of us, to question James. But no video game is a picture-perfect simulation for real life. And James knows that better than anyone. He struggled when he first joined Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in Miami, went through the same thing with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Cleveland and then again needed time before this season's new-world order fell into place.
Expect an identical, if comparable, learning curve when Thomas is cleared for duty. His midseason arrival should cost a few wins, as will whatever rest-and-relaxation days head coach Tyronn Lue hands out once Cleveland has a stronghold on first or second place in the East.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 36-46
Current Pace: 21-61
New Projection: 27-55
On the latest episode of "Way Better Than Their Record Implies," we have the Dallas Mavericks.
Fans of good teams will get mad when their squad loses to this crew. They shouldn't. Not too much anyway. The Mavericks have the NBA's fourth-worst record, but they're 24th in point differential per 100 possessions during non-garbage time, with a top-14 defense, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Dallas has been noticeably feisty since getting blown out 111-87 by the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov. 17. A pair of games against the Celtics have gone down to the wire, as have matchups with Bucks and San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks are touting victories over the Bucks and Thunder and have handed out drubbings to the short-handed Clippers and Denver Nuggets.
Playing close to .500 basketball through 11 games is nothing to celebrate, but it has displaced the Mavericks from the organic tanking discussion. Lineups featuring J.J. Barea, Dirk Nowitzki and Dwight Powell have been straight fire, and no second unit has fared better on defense.
Sub-30 wins actually feels a little low when accounting for returns from Seth Curry (leg) and Dorian Finney-Smith (knee), along with head coach Rick Carlisle's typical midseason rise when he works lineup magic following a feeling-out process. This prediction rests on the thought the Mavericks will throw in the towel once their playoff hopes are dashed.
Barea, Devin Harris and Wesley Matthews should all become rumor-mill staples, and selling off any combination of them eats into the team's depth. The Mavericks could hold serve and grind their way to a low-30s win total, or maybe something a little better, but even if they just introduce maintenance programs for the vets after the All-Star break, they'll end up kowtowing to the lottery ladder at some point.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 48-34
Current Pace: 44-38
New Projection: 43-39
So much for the idea that the Denver Nuggets would burst onto the 50-win scene.
Paul Millsap's wrist injury changes the complexion of their outlook. He's their best defender, and their so-so standing has plummeted without him. They clawed their way up to a not-good-but-manageable 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions before he left midway through a Nov. 19 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. They're trotting out a bottom-three defense in the time since.
Worst of all, Millsap's recovery timetable puts him back in the rotation around mid-February. Three months is a long time to survive without your top defender and second-best player overall—infinitely so when the beginning of that stretch coincides with the absence of your absolute best player.
Nikola Jokic hasn't played since Nov. 30 after he suffered a sprained left ankle midway through a narrow escape against the Bulls. Denver is chop suey without him.
"I got up every two hours and cried," head coach Mike Malone joked the day after a Dec. 6 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, per the Denver Post's Gina Mizell.
Life as the Nuggets know it will firm up once Jokic gets right. He'll help their nosediving defense and restore their offensive identity. They're better with both him and Millsap (duh), but they remain a net plus when Jokic plays without him. They're also too talented to finish with the NBA's third-worst plus-minus on the road.
Sounding the lottery alarm is out of the question. But hoping for anything more than the mid-40s in the win column is off-limits. They'll need to trade for a starry playmaker and/or high-profile three-and-D wing to float projections they enjoyed with a healthy Millsap.
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 41-41
Current Pace: 44-38
New Projection: 43-39
An 0-5 record on their most recent road trip significantly messes with the Detroit Pistons' stock. They exited November fluttering around the NBA's sweet spot—within tight proximity of top-10 offensive and defensive ratings. They're now in 17th in the former department.
Five-game belly-flops aren't season-long indicators, and this hostile-territory jaunt included dance-offs with quality opponents: the Bucks, Spurs, Wizards, 76ers and Warriors. Detroit played its way into crunch time during four of these five contests—a small consolation prize for its trouble.
But keeping up the current pace will be tough, even with Reggie Jackson's fine season, Tobias Harris' showing out on offense and Andre Drummond's improvement as a free-throw shooter, passer and decision-maker.
Detroit's dependence on its starting lineup is dangerous.
The Avery Bradley-Stanley Johnson-Drummond-Harris-Jackson quintet checks in as the league's second-most-used unit, behind only—you guessed it—the Timberwolves' opening five. That group is getting pummeled by more than seven points per 100 possessions and wasn't much better before the winless road trip.
Six of the Pistons' eight most-played lineups are in the red. They've found some success with bench-heavy configurations and by subbing out Johnson for Luke Kennard or Langston Galloway. But the latter doesn't play much anymore—nice job hard-capping yourselves for him, Pistons—and your most-used arrangement cannot be among your least reliable.
Absent a galvanizing alteration to the starting five or an impactful trade, Detroit looks like a solid playoff team and not much else. Forty-four wins is its happy medium between an unsustainable start and reality.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 70-12
Current Pace: 64-18
New Projection: 65-17
OK, so, maybe the Golden State Warriors won't sleepwalk their way to 70 victories after all.
Stephen Curry's missed time due to a right ankle injury won't help their cause. Nor will head coach Steve Kerr's subtle upkeep program. Andre Iguodala's knack for picking which nights go full bore before May are detrimental to a 70-win dalliance as well.
The Warriors should still come darn close. They're that good, even when they're not. Kerr is quick to call out inconsistent showings, but he's also convinced the best is yet to come.
"I still think we're going to be better by the end of this year than we were last year," he said, per the Bay Area News Group's Mark Medina. "I believe that. But it's a totally different route."
Imagine saying this about a team that's tracking toward 60-something victories...and being right.
Golden State's warts are hardly new: few and far between, with some crunch-time bunk, turnover woes and defensive rebounding noise baked in for good measure. Some of the defense's quirks are a little foreign. The Warriors don't seem interested in warding off fast breaks after coughing up possession or missing shots, an area in which they've excelled for the better part of three years.
And that means...what exactly? Half-trying their way to a top-five defense overall instead of scrapping their way to a top-two finish? Winning 65 games instead of 68 to 70?
They'll live.
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 60-22
Current Pace: 69-13
New Projection: 63-19
Tabbing the Houston Rockets for 63 wins feels a little stingy—and that, right there, is the Rockets' season in a nutshell.
Everyone assumed they would have a top offense, which they do. No one entered the season pegging James Harden for a runaway MVP campaign through the quarter mark, but he's not delivering out-of-character performances either. He's essentially doing everything he did last year, with better shooting slashes, while his lone-wolf performance during Chris Paul's 14-game absence buoys his anecdotal mystique.
Should the Rockets be touting a top-five defense? Or the league's best defensive rebounding percentage? Should they be surviving on the less glamorous end, in addition to all they're doing offensively, even when Ryan Anderson plays center? Or green-lighting Luc Mbah a Moute for more off-the-dribble work while helping him surpass last year's career efficiency from long range?
Should Eric Gordon be on pace to complete more dunks in his age 29 season (26) than over his entire New Orleans tenure (20)? Should PJ Tucker be converting a team-best 73.9 percent of his looks inside eight feet?
Should contract-year Clint Capela rate as one of this season's 25 most valuable players, bar none, according to NBA Math's total points added? And should Paul already be a full-fledged Moreyball zealot, with more than 50 percent of his shots coming inside three feet or from deep for the first time since his rookie campaign?
Totally rational reasons for displacing the Rockets from their 69-win path don't exist—especially if they place a premium on nabbing the No. 1 seed and let Harden run rampant without rest nights or a minutes caps.
Call this a gut feeling. Attribute it to the starting five's turnstile defense. Gordon has gone arctic-cold from the field since Paul's return. That hurts, too. But, mostly, sticking with 65-plus wins for any team outside Oakland feels plain wrong.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 30-52
Current Pace: 49-33
New Projection: 44-38
Dealing Paul George for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, while a decision clearly aimed at staving off a full-scale demolition, ostensibly torpedoed the Indiana Pacers' playoff chances. And the jury is still out on whether they won that trade. Shedding top-25 players seldom amounts to addition by subtraction.
At the bare minimum, though, the Thunder didn't squeeze the Pacers.
Oladipo looks the part of a cornerstone candidate in his first full season free from sidekick caveats, while "hyperefficient" is Sabonis' new default setting. Indiana outscores opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions whenever they're partnered up—the third-best differential on the team among 51 duos to log at least 25 minutes.
Aspects of their start, and the Pacers' performance in general, won't hold. Oladipo is canning 44.2 percent of his pull-up threes on top-20 volume and joins Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, James Harden and LeBron James as the only players shooting 46 percent or better through 60 iso possessions. Sabonis toes the line of 70 percent shooting around the basket.
Indiana is sixth in points scored per 100 possessions, but the offense seems liable to collapse on a whim. No team relies more on long mid-range jumpers, according to Cleaning The Glass, and the Pacers cannot count on nine players to drain 35 percent or more of their triplets.
And yet, something about this squad clicks. The Pacers get out on the break whenever they can and don't play with a contrived hierarchy. Oladipo is The Guy, but they have no issue running him off the rock. Their defense is average on its best nights, but they clamp down in crunch time, where they're an impressive, if somewhat flukey, 10-5.
Be the bigger person: Admit you were wrong about the Indiana Pacers. They won't sniff 50 victories, but they've gone from low-30s lottery formality to mid-40s postseason lock.
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 42-40
Current Pace: 33-49
New Projection: 34-48
Full disclosure: On scale of "Absolutely sure" to "To Hell If We Know," the confidence behind this projection falls somewhere in between, right around "It Depends on How Often You Refresh Your 'DeAndre Jordan Trade Rumors' Google Search."
Since their 4-0 start, the Los Angeles Clippers are a season-ruining 6-15, with the league's worst defense by a light-year or 50. Patrick Beverley is done for the season following surgery to repair a microfracture or torn meniscus in his right knee. (Or is he?) Blake Griffin probably won't be back until February after suffering a sprained left MCL. Danilo Gallinari (glute contusion) is back to bystander duty, and Milos Teodosic (foot) just ended his sidelines stay.
In the meantime, the Clippers' search for something, anything, that works has included testing out Sindarius Thornwell, C.J. Williams and Jamil Wilson as starters. Austin Rivers has now logged more court time than anyone on the team, and Jordan continues to be the NBA's most talked-about trade asset.
Sneaking past 30 wins will be difficult should the Clippers go untouched. Moving Jordan—and, perhaps, Lou Williams' expiring deal—would doom them to sub-25 victories. But the latest only has Los Angeles listening to offers, not actively hocking their All-Star center, according to USA Today's Sam Amick.
Griffin's return convolutes matters further. He's a top-15 player at full strength, and superstars translate to wins. The Clippers are a plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions in the 203 minutes he's spent beside Gallinari and Jordan—akin to a top-three net rating.
Resist trade overtures long enough, and the Clippers should summon the manpower to vacate the doldrums. Jordan's up-in-the-air future is spritzed into their 34-win guesstimate, but the prospect of a healthy, available Griffin prevents anything much lower.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 31-51
Current Pace: 33-49
New Projection: 30-52
Hopefully everyone not named LaVar Ball has lowered their expectations for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Shockingly strong defensive efforts initially looked like they might ferry the NBA's youngest team onto the peripherals of the Western Conference's playoff picture. But that plucky start is showing cracks.
Los Angeles ranks 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions since Nov. 15—still a pleasant surprise, but not nearly elite enough to give this squad a defense-first identity. And the offense continues to be unremarkable.
Brandon Ingram's drives and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's pull-up threes in transition are intrepid thrills, and the Lakers' three-point shooting has normalized over their past 10 games. But they're erratic in transition, despite leaning on fast breaks with league-high frequency, and grapple with conjuring half-court offense unless they're securing their own misses, per Cleaning The Glass.
Nothing about the Lakers' performance screams outlier. They aren't supposed to be good now. They're built for midseason experimentation and offseason flexibility. They'll settle for shooting and creative strides from Ingram, more aggression from Lonzo Ball, better defensive awareness from Kyle Kuzma, trade-value booms from Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle, and less LeBron James-to-Houston speculation.
For those still uncomfortable with derailing the Lakers' 33-win trajectory, remember they've charted that course while playing one of the seven easiest schedules. The sailing won't be any smoother from here.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 37-45
Current Pace: 24-58
New Projection: 33-49
Generous? Only if you assume the Memphis Grizzlies blow it up this season—a far from unreasonable slant.
"We didn't have any urgency," Marc Gasol said after a Dec. 8 loss to the Toronto Raptors, per ESPN 92.9 FM's Devin Walker. "And I don't understand, when you lost, what was it, 12 out of 13 games, how guys cannot have urgency."
"Literally everything happening with Gasol is the standard 'player forces his way out' protocol," CBSSports.com's Matt Moore tweeted the next day. "Seen it so many times."
Perhaps Gasol does want out. And the Grizzlies should tank. They're not coming back from this latest blow—a league-worst 3-18 losing spree following a 5-1 start. A semi-healthy Mike Conley (Achilles) restores some semblance of balance, but they're too far gone for him to save.
Casting any more doubt than this just doesn't jibe with the Grizzlies' party line. General manager Chris Wallace explicitly ruled out tanking at the end of November, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, and a 180-degree turn doesn't make sense, even under current circumstances, when he fired head coach David Fizdale to keep the Conley-Gasol era intact.
Besides, the Grizzlies are racking up plenty of losses without pivoting into deconstruction. Standing pat and finishing with 33 wins puts them in line for top-10 lottery odds and a player who helps sell an instant turnaround alongside Conley and Gasol.
Miami Heat
16 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 43-39
Current Pace: 41-41
New Projection: 40-42
The battle of the "Will the real 2016-17 Miami Heat please stand up?" is over. And neither the 11-30 nor 30-11 version has emerged as the winner.
That honor belongs to last season's 41-41 record.
It turns out the Heat's entire performance from 2016-17 was more reflective of their ceiling than any particular stretch. They've spent all of 2017-18 dancing around the .500 mark and don't have a clear path toward noticeable improvement.
Hassan Whiteside will help if his left knee ever gets right. For all Whiteside's faults and foibles, Miami doesn't have a go-to starting lineup without him. Inserting Bam Adebayo kills an already dead offense, and Kelly Olynyk's inclusion isn't worth the defensive trade-off.
Getting Whiteside back to the rotation won't do much on this front. The Heat are exploring Bulls-level anemia with him in the lineup, piling on a mere 96.8 points per 100 possessions. Their issues go much deeper than who's jumping center.
Miami takes the right shots. Only two teams have more of their looks coming at the rim or from beyond the arc, according to Cleaning The Glass. Guys just aren't finding the bottom of the net.
Dion Waiters and Josh Richardson are shooting roughly 32 percent from downtown despite placing second and third on the team, respectively, in total attempts. Not one of the Heat's non-bigs is doing notable work around the basket. Wayne Ellington is the most accurate finisher among the guards and wings, and he hardly ever reaches the basket. That Miami ranks second in drives per game yet 28th in free-throw-attempt rate is damning.
Unless team president Pat Riley swings a trade he doesn't have the assets to make or embraces the rebuild he's so far evaded, we shouldn't expect much more—or less—from this group than what we've already seen.
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 45-37
Current Pace: 49-33
New Projection: 49-33
Officially official announcement that is official: We can now safely buy into the Milwaukee Bucks. They were touch-and-go for a while, threatening to devolve into a disappointment. But the Eric Bledsoe trade is having its intended effect.
Milwaukee is 11-4 and hovering around the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency through his first 15 appearances. Head coach Jason Kidd still doesn't have his troops jacking enough threes—and apparently doesn't have to. Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo are from-scratch maestros who don't need a ton of space.
Subsisting on situational fast breaks, cuts and individual creation won't win a playoff series, but the Bucks can get by for now, on the backs of a few dominant lineup combinations.
Their most-used unit since the trade—Antetokounmpo, Bledsoe, John Henson, Khris Middleton and Tony Snell—steamrolls opponents by more than 17 points per 100 possessions. The Antetokounmpo-Bledsoe-Middleton trio is comparably potent regardless of the other personnel.
Kidd has even made some recent, and effective, tweaks to the Bucks' frenetic defensive approach. They're fourth in opponent three-point-attempt frequency since surrendering 18 made threebies to the Utah Jazz on Nov. 25. They still give up a bunch of shots inside five feet, but their interior recovery is surviving the volume.
Jabari Parker's return from a second ACL injury will add an interesting wrinkle to the Bucks' dynamic. He isn't the cleanest fit for a starting unit that includes both Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe. But he worked as a spot-up marksman last year, and Kidd can stagger minutes so that he's running the show whenever Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe take a seat.
And if the Bucks acquire DeAndre Jordan ahead of the trade deadline, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe suspects they'll try doing, forget it. This 49-win pace and projection will undersell the final tally.
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 44-38
Current Pace: 49-33
New Projection: 47-35
Consider this an early Christmas present for the Minnesota Timberwolves, because they're not playing like a 47-win team. They're like the inverse of the Thunder.
Sure, they're fifth in offensive efficiency. But that standing shouldn't hold. They don't take enough threes and aren't exceptionally deft at getting shots off around the hoop. The Kings are the only team dedicating a smaller portion of their offense to those in-vogue areas, according to Cleaning The Class, and Sacramento is 29th in points scored per 100 possessions.
Don't be fooled by the Timberwolves' relative success in close games either. They're 7-5 when neither side is trailing or leading by more than three points entering the final three minutes, but they're minus-19.2 points per 100 possessions in these situations overall—a bottom-10 differential.
This says nothing of their porous defense or shallow rotation. They'll be lucky to stave off a bottom-five finish on the less glamorous end, and head coach Tom Thibodeau has predictably avoided using second-stringers more than any other head coach.
That last tidbit matters more than anything. Minnesota's starting five is the Association's most-used lineup by almost 150 minutes. Jimmy Butler has cleared 40 minutes on eight different occasions—fourth-most in the the league.
Top-heavy squads can win games, and the Timberwolves have gradually started to run more of their offense through Butler. But looking past everything that seems untenable doesn't make their defense good, or even not horrible. They'll end their 13-year playoff drought and, barring injury, contend for a top-five playoff seed. They won't do much else.
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 37-45
Current Pace: 41-41
New Projection: 43-39
Are you ready for the most bizarre passage of the 2017-18 season? It comes courtesy of The Bird Writes' Preston Ellis, who identified Rajon Rondo as the Pelicans' best early-season development:
"The easy answer would be the chemistry shared between AD and Boogie, but I'll argue Rajon Rondo. The biggest free agent acquisition this offseason was a divisive topic for Pels' fans and national critics alike. Did the Pelicans sign the guy from Boston? The guy from Dallas? How about Sacramento, or did they sign the guy who had a ho hum Chicago regular season only to play masterfully in the first two games of the 2017 playoffs?
"So far, I think it's easiest to vote the latter. Rondo's numbers don't jump off the page at seven and eight per game, but his teammates numbers do! Ever since Rondo joined the Pelicans against the Hawks, the confidence and the shooting have improved in players like Darius Miller (50% from three), E'Twaun Moore (50.8% from three) and Jrue Holiday (better than before!). His communication and steadying hand on both sides of the floor have also contributed to a drop in turnovers, especially for Holiday."
Unnerving stuff? Oh, yes. Inaccurate? Not at all.
Rondo has become a pivotal part of what the Pelicans do. They're scoring 114.2 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor over their last 10 games. The Holiday-Rondo-Anthony Davis troika has been particularly deadly during this stretch.
Davis and DeMarcus Cousins remain the Pelicans' lifeline. But the bench has picked up some defensive slack in recent weeks, and Rondo is opening shots for Holiday and Miller that the bigs cannot—developments that'll render New Orleans playoff-bound so long as the front office doesn't unload Boogie at the trade deadline and Davis' groin injury doesn't linger.
New York Knicks
20 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 28-54
Current Pace: 41-41
New Projection: 34-48
Enjoy the New York Knicks' stint at and around .500 while you can, because it has an expiration date.
Kristaps Porzingis is fantastic—a genuine superstar. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Enes Kanter have been better than expected (when healthy). And Courtney Lee is feeling himself in the post-triangle era. But the Knicks are scraping by on a home-heavy schedule, without any evidence they're fit to win on the road.
Falling to the Bulls on Dec. 9 represented a new low. They have lost six straight away from Madison Square Garden and are now 1-8 overall on the road. Chicago and Sacramento are the only teams with inferior net ratings on hostile ground.
More than 57 percent of the Knicks' remaining games will come on the road, making it difficult to buy into their charmingly tepid start. Plus, they have to be put on tanker's watch.
The front office tandem of Steve Mills and Scott Perry doesn't seem keen on blowing this nucleus to smithereens, but they won't be granted much flexibility in free agency over the next two summers as they carry contracts for Hardaway, Kanter (player option for 2018-19) and Joakim Noah while presumably prepping a max deal for the soon-to-be extension-eligible Porzingis.
Multiple teams have shown interest in trading for Lee, according to ESPN.com's Ian Begley, and both Kyle O'Quinn and Lance Thomas could catch the attention of bargain-hunting buyers by February's deadline.
With the opportunity to add another top prospect to their foundation of Hardaway, Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina, the Knicks should be doing everything possible to drive up their lottery odds once it becomes clear, as it invariably will, they're not fit for postseason duty.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 52-30
Current Pace: 38-44
New Projection: 47-35
Write off the Oklahoma City Thunder as an incurable failure at your own risk.
Yes, their offense is at times unwatchable. The preferred starting lineup scores like a bottom-five attack, while Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Russell Westbrook have combined to shoot under 34 percent during crunch time.
Only Rockets lean on isolation sets with more frequency, and no team averages fewer passes per game—both of which would be fine if the Thunder weren't trekking toward a sub-.500 record or a disastrous 4-9 in games when neither squad is trailing or leading by more than five points entering the final minutes.
Riding with the Thunder is especially tough now, after they fell to the Nets on Dec. 7 and almost folded against the Grizzlies on Dec. 9. But as Matt Moore wrote for CBSSports.com:
"And as always, I am here to remind you that Oklahoma City's objective was not to be a contender on December 8. That the Thunder remain eighth [now 10th] in net rating. That going into the Brooklyn game, they were on a three-game win streak. That if the two coin-flip games vs. the Wolves had gone their way, they'd be over .500. That their defensive is now second-best in the league. And that you essentially have to decide if Russell Westbrook is now just a bad player given his shooting and overall play."
Piggybacking off this: The Thunder have a top-10 point differential in wins. Their assist percentage has skyrocketed with the OK3 on the court over their last 79 minutes of action, replete with close-to-average offensive output. They've also yet to really test out the Anthony-George-Westbrook-Andre Roberson-Patrick Patterson lineup that's supposed to act as a Warriors repellant.
Heck, maybe we're overcomplicating things. We're sitting here, less than halfway through the season, worrying about the offense of a team that houses Anthony, George and Westbrook. Not the defense, but the offense. It doesn't matter whether these three perfectly complement one another. This much pre-eminent offensive talent should figure things out in time to scratch the surface of its potential.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 31-51
Current Pace: 32-50
New Projection: 32-50
The Orlando Magic's 2017-18 crusade is telling a tale of two teams—the first an early-season marvel, the second a fallen wonder suffering from reality checks. To the tape:
Injuries are hurting Orlando. Both Jonathan Isaac (ankle) and Terrence Ross (knee) have been ticketed for extended stays on the bench, while Evan Fournier is working through ankle issues. D.J. Augustin, Aaron Gordon, Shelvin Mack and Elfrid Payton have all missed time.
But the Magic aren't the Clippers. They're not even the Grizzlies. They cannot pin their implosion on injury bugs. They have flaws ingrained into this roster—most notably a complete inability to be inventive or average on the defensive end.
Giving Isaac more time upon his return will let them explore some switchable combinations with Gordon, but their iron-fisted start always felt like a mirage. They forfeit too many shots from gimme areas—only the Lakers allow more inside five feet—and don't have the rim protectors to justify chasing opponents off the three-point line. Bismack Biyombo is a natural deterrent, but he tanks a spacing model they've traveled great lengths to create.
Speaking of tanks...the Magic, like the Clippers, Grizzlies, Knicks and some others, must be put on rock-bottom watch. Their cap situation isn't great this summer, and they have to worry about raises for Payton and Gordon, who is still playing well enough to fetch a pretty penny in restricted free agency.
Knowing his breakout and Nikola Vucevic's steadying offensive hand won't facilitate a postseason bid on their own, Orlando could, and should, look to inflate its lottery odds with an impromptu yard sale.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 40-42
Current Pace: 41-41
New Projection: 45-37
Processors everywhere are being treated to a huge dose of "Oh, not again" as the Philadelphia Sixers slog through this season's most harrowing stretch.
Robert Covington is coping with back pain after diving into the stands during a Dec. 9 loss to the Cavaliers, while Joel Embiid is—gulp—dealing with back tightness. Oh, and for those who haven't given up on checking, No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz remains at least a few weeks away from returning to action.
This flurry of bad news coincides with a four-game losing streak, and a stretch of six letdowns in eight tries. People in Philly are officially on the lookout for a descending sky, moral decay, inbound second-round picks and other apocalyptic harbingers. (And FYI: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz's season-ending ACL injury isn't helping matters.)
Hang tough, Philly. It gets better from here.
Three of the Sixers' most recent six losses have come without Embiid, their most valuable player. That they gave the Cavaliers a scare without him—in Cleveland, no less—suffices as a moral victory. And their relatively competitive loss to the Pelicans on Sunday came on the second night of a road back-to-back, without Covington and Embiid, who own the team's top two net ratings.
Make no mistake: These recent run-ins with injuries stink.
The Sixers aren't built to withstand a lengthy absence from two of their three best players. Newly acquired Trevor Booker doesn't bridge the talent gap of a frontcourt without Embiid, and neither Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot nor Dario Saric comes close to supplanting Covington's three-point shooting and defensive tenacity. But nothing emanating out of Philly suggests the Sixers are screwed for the long haul.
JJ Redick and Rookie of the Year runaway/Hall of Fame-bound Ben Simmons have almost played opponents to a statistical stalemate without Covington and Embiid, so they can navigate short-term hardship. And assuming everyone gets healthy, the Sixers have the point differential of a championship contender when these four share the court—all while playing through the league's second-toughest schedule to date.
Panicking over an onrush of bad luck in Philly is so 2014. Those days are gone. The Sixers will resume chasing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs once they're whole.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 26-56
Current Pace: 26-56
New Projection: 25-57
Devin Booker's left adductor injury doesn't change the Phoenix Suns' long-term outlook. They're right where they should be: in firm possession of one of the league's worst records, with a good chance of ducking inside the bottom three.
Demonstrative regression isn't the on the table, because, well, the Suns cannot fall much further. Appreciable overachieving is similarly off the board, because they don't have the incentive to chase wins.
Some of Phoenix's most-used lineups have played with a little spunk under interim head coach Jay Triano. But many of those include either Tyson Chandler or Greg Monroe. And that should change.
Monroe is a prime buyout candidate if he isn't used as salary-matching fodder prior to the trade deadline, and Chandler should see his minutes dip in favor of more Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Alex Len as the season wears on.
Remember: We've seen this movie before. The Suns shut down Chandler and Eric Bledsoe last year to accentuate the youth and springload their lottery odds. Their situation isn't any different now.
Booker has improved ever so slightly as a playmaker, bonus offensive touches are starting to look good on Chriss, and TJ Warren knows how to get buckets even when he's not splashing in threes. Organic in-house development at the individual level should dissuade the Suns from getting into tank-offs with the Bulls and Kings. It won't, however, propel them toward a much better record.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 43-39
Current Pace: 41-41
New Projection: 44-38
Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes bluntly laid out the acid trip that is the 2017-18 Portland Trail Blazers in his latest power rankings:
"It feels like no matter what happens with them, we're going to remember the 2017-18 Blazers as a particularly weird team. Either they'll continue to defend at a top-five rate while scoring at a bottom-10 clip (essentially inverting last year's profile), or they'll revert to their old identity, suddenly scoring in bunches and failing to stop anyone."
Recent home losses to the Anthony Davis-less Pelicans and John Wall-less Wizards only add to the maze of questions. The Blazers are now under .500 when playing on their own turf, which has long been considered a safe haven, and have, as Hughes alluded to, seen their identity reverse course.
Portland coughed up 115.1 points per 100 possessions during its latest (and winless) four-game homestand—third-most over that span, behind only the Clippers and Nuggets. That's the bad news. Now for the worse news: That downward spiral hasn't aligned with an offensive uptick. The Blazers are still scoring at a bottom-10 clip overall.
Still, a team that plays Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum won't waste away in offensive irrelevance for an entire year. The Blazers will find their mojo when both Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic are healthy at the same time—which has happened just three times so far—and they're able to field their most imposing lineups.
As for the defense, it should normalize no matter what. Portland won't creep back into the elite ranks, but bottom-five regression would be similarly stark. While head coach Terry Stotts' conservative schemes don't always work against well-oiled machines that fire away from the parking lot (Houston) or have the length to finish over resistance at the rim (Milwaukee, New Orleans), they're effective enough to frustrate approximately half the league into low-level offensive performances.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 28-54
Current Pace: 25-57
New Projection: 20-62
Forgive anyone who won't buy the Sacramento Kings as a 25-win team. Most of their victories look like happy—or, depending on how you feel about tanking, unhappy—accidents in hindsight.
Wins against the Thunder (Nov. 7), implosive as they are, and Sixers (Nov. 9) are early-season flukes. Their upset over the Warriors (Nov. 27) was definitely a chance occurrence. It took Golden State's resting Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, as well as a Bogdan Bogdanovic's game-winner over Draymond Green, to get the job done.
Cutting down the Pelicans (Dec. 8) even feels like one-off quirk. The Kings got to see a subdued Anthony Davis in his first game back from a groin injury, and 36-year-old Zach Randolph needed to go bonkers with 35 points and 13 rebounds.
Wipe two of these wins from the record, and Sacramento would be on track for fewer than 20 victories. And you know what? The Kings should finish around there anyway. With their 2019 first-rounder headed to Boston or Philadelphia, they have a one-year window in which to tank and must make the most of it.
Head coach Dave Joerger started favoring De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield over George Hill before Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune brought word the veteran point guard feels betrayed by the team's direction. Randolph should get the Tyson Chandler treatment after the All-Star break. Garrett Temple should be treated to the same midseason vacation, if not dealt to a buyer ahead of the trade deadline.
And, hey, if that doesn't do it for you, this should: The Kings are, as constructed, playing like a 16-win squad outside garbage time, according to Cleaning The Glass. Leave the roster and rotation alone, and they'll be lucky to hit the 20-victory touchstone, let alone exceed it.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 55-27
Current Pace: 58-24
New Projection: 59-23
No Kawhi Leonard has, quite literally, been no problem for the San Antonio Spurs. They're on course for 58 victories, and their best player has yet to set foot on the court.
Once more, with feeling: The Spurs have ambled their way into 60-win territory without a top-five superstar to carry them.
What team does that? Like, honestly, how? Do the Warriors retain their pace if Stephen Curry (no) or Kevin Durant (maybe) missed this much time?
LaMarcus Aldridge isn't just doing more in Leonard's absence. He's having a career year. He's tallying personal bests in player efficiency rating, true shooting percentage and turnover rate. And he's on pace to add more total value than in any season of his career, according to NBA Math.
Although the Spurs have grappled with offensive shortfalls for much of the year, they've settled at 12th in points scored per 100 possessions. Three of their five most-used lineups would rank around fifth or better in offensive efficiency, and any configuration featuring Aldridge and Tony Parker scores with league-best potency.
Working through the NBA's second-easiest schedule skews some of the Spurs' results, but again: They're doing this without a top-five player. And Leonard is set to return Tuesday. The same Leonard who's a perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender. The same Leonard who dragged San Antonio's offense to top-two status when he played last season.
The same Leonard who assures the Spurs won't stray far from their current path, even as their slate gets tougher and head coach Gregg Popovich strives to meet his hypothetical, unofficial, but-definitely-not-imaginary rest-night quota.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 48-34
Current Pace: 56-26
New Projection: 55-27
This new Toronto Raptors offense sure is purdy—not to mention almost unrecognizable.
Roughly 59 percent of all Toronto's shot attempts came at the rim or from three last season, good for the NBA's fifth-lowest mark, according to Cleaning The Glass. That allocation has soared past 70 percent this year, which trails only Cleveland, Houston, Miami and New Orleans.
The benefits that accompany the Raptors' new shot distribution seem marginal at first glance. They're third in offensive efficiency as opposed to sixth, with a couple of extra points per 100 possessions to show for it. Big whoop.
Dig deeper, and the advantages become more pronounced. The Raptors still aren't ball-moving connoisseurs, but they've gone from sixth in isolation frequency all the way down to 23rd. They've stocked the roster with non-dominant talents around DeRozan and Lowry while steering into the development of youngsters such as OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam.
Toronto is deeper than ever as a result and, by extension, better suited for the postseason. Tides won't turn for the worst if and when DeRozan or Lowry cannot get going. The Raptors evaded disaster to start the year when Lowry couldn't buy a bucket, and DeRozan is piloting top-flight offensive units without him on the floor.
Keeping Anunoby in the starting five, meanwhile, has helped stabilize the defense.
He isn't the most switchable player in pick-and-rolls, but he has the lateral sauce to hang in space and minimize the awkwardness inflicted by a Serge Ibaka-Jonas Valanciunas marriage. Toronto's opening quintet is about average on the defensive end over its past six appearances, with an offense that knows no quit, and Norman Powell's efficiency has exploded within the second unit.
Give this squad its due. Its 60-win hanky-panky will break off; the Raptors aren't fending off the Cavaliers for second place in the East. But finishing with anything less than the franchise's second-ever 55-victory campaign would be a genuine shock.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 44-38
Current Pace: 39-43
New Projection: 42-40
Meet the Utah Jazz, champions of the weird and the frustrating. Just look at their season splits, broken down by Rudy Gobert's knee injury:
- Pre-Gobert Injury (12 games): 5-7, No. 28 offense, No. 3 defense, No. 20 net rating
- During Gobert Injury (11 games): 7-4, No. 2 offense, No. 14 defense, No. 5 net rating
- Post-Gobert Injury: (four games): 1-3, No. 14 offense, No. 9 defense, No. 11 net rating
Utah is dealing with other injuries, which doesn't help. Rodney Hood hasn't played since Nov. 25 due to a sore ankle, and Joe Johnson has been sitting on the shelf since the end of October with wrist trouble. But the team's up-and-down status isn't solely due to matters beyond their control.
Relying on rookie Donovan Mitchell for so much offense leads to fluctuating identities. Mitchell has the makings of a two-way stud—a spirited defender and bouncy shot creator. But who do the Jazz depend on when he's 4-of-17 or 1-of-10?
Ricky Rubio cannot be that safety net. Nor can Derrick Favors. Gobert isn't being paid to hunt down his shots. Monopolizing the offense isn't in Joe Ingles' DNA. Hood was on a tear before submitting to a left ankle injury, but that doesn't aid the Jazz's cause now.
Mitchell can only do so much when he's on point anyway. Utah's current starting lineup is getting dismantled by 31.7 points per 100 possessions—a gateway to the overarching detriment that has become the Favors-Gobert-Rubio tricycle. The Jazz are a minus-75 in the 227 minutes those three have logged together and a plus-160 everywhere else, per Bleacher Report's Andrew Bailey.
Head coach Quin Snyder has explored yanking Favors early to soak up more time with the second-stringers, but finding a positive partnership for Rubio's topsy-turvy offense remains a challenge. And until—or rather, unless—the Jazz figure out a way to build their rotation around their deluge of uneven "stars," they'll stay this exact, maddening, inconsistent course.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
B/R's Offseason Prediction: 50-32
Current Pace: 44-38
New Projection: 47-35
Spending time without John Wall will wind up being a blessing in disguise for the Washington Wizards.
To be sure, it hasn't worked wonders for their win-loss ceiling. They're 4-4 since he received platelet-rich plasma injections in his left knee and are only enjoying a climb up the East's playoff ladder thanks to the recent plights of the Pistons and Sixers.
Then again, the Wizards are playing .500 basketball without their best player! Bradley Beal is anchoring a not-terrible offense during that time! And, most importantly, throwing Tim Frazier into the starting five has forced head coach Scott Brooks to unleash a potentially lethal all-bench mob.
Ian Mahinmi, Jodie Meeks, Kelly Oubre Jr., Tomas Satoransky and Mike Scott are plus-14.9 points per 100 possessions in Wall's absence, through which they've been the Wizards' second-most used lineup. Satoransky, in particular, has been a revelation, flinging off-the-bounce bullets to shooters in the corners and putting down 41.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
Now, picture tossing Wall back into the starting lineup and soldiering forward with this backup brigade. The incumbent starting unit hasn't been great since Markieff Morris displaced Oubre, but it has been one of Washington's most reliable combinations for almost two seasons. Chances are the results will swing in the right direction with a healthy Wall.
Either way, the Wizards have dusted off some expected depth during a less-than-ideal stretch. Even if Brooks futzes with the minutes after Wall's return to get Frazier spin over Meeks, they should have the lineup versatility to get back within puncher's distance of 50 wins.
Unless otherwise cited, all stats are courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and current leading into games on Dec. 12.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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