Flight Risk Meter for NBA's Top 25 Free Agents
Round and round the NBA's free-agency rumor mill turns, faster and faster as July 1 nears. Where will the top 25 names land? Nobody knows.
Well, except us. Sometimes.
The Association's summertime extravaganza is always littered with big names and impact players waiting to sign new contracts. But not all of them are itching to join new teams. Some are on the fence. Others cannot wait to get the heck out of the Paul George wreckage dodge. A select few won't weigh leaving their current digs for a millisecond.
It's important to get a look on how available the most important free agents actually are. And that's where the (totally arbitrary) flight risk meter comes into play.
This useful little tool will gauge how likely a free agent is to switch locales. Risk factors range from "Nonexistent" to "HE GONE," with plenty of different designations in between. Decisions are based on a player's salary expectations, age, the situation of the team he played for last season, rumors and, of course, whether his college coach is now working the NBA sidelines.
Candidates were culled from this ranking of the top-50 free agents, with placement being tweaked whenever a player's stock and future outlook deem it necessary.
The "He Already Gone" Notable Exclusion: Chris Paul
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Chris Paul originally profiled as a top-three free agent and "San Antonio Spurs or bust" flight risk. But then he spit in the face of free agency to join the Houston Rockets.
That is indeed a real sentence.
As first reported by The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, Paul has agreed to opt into the last year of his contract to facilitate a move to the Rockets. This is very bad news for the Spurs, and for 29 NBA defenses.
On the bright side, though, we get to spend the next year wondering whether LeBron James will leave the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018 to join Paul in Houston! Woo-hoo!
25. Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors
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Patrick Patterson owes the Rockets a thank you.
The Dallas Mavericks initially displaced him from this list by making Dirk Nowitzki a free agent, but then Houston traded for Paul. Yes, wow. But also: Welcome back, Patrick!
It'll be a minor miracle if Patterson sticks with the Toronto Raptors. Paying Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry alone will vault them into the luxury tax. Patterson and P.J. Tucker are liable to become castoffs so the Raptors can keep the books relatively tidy.
Dumping DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas or, less likely, DeMar DeRozan opens the door for a return, but so much will depend on cost. Patterson's defensive versatility, three-point stroke and occasional ability to put the ball on the floor should be in high demand around a league that values switchy, low-usage power forward-centers.
Flight Risk Meter: High
24. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
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The Mavericks almost owed Mr. Patterson an apology. They declined Nowitzki's $25 million team option, which means he's officially a free agent, which means his sweet shooting and adaptable offense must be accounted for in these proceedings, which means he must be slotted among the top-25 free agents.
Yours truly loves talking about Dirk as much as the next basketball fan, but this is all so pointless. Nowitzki isn't going anywhere.
"But sources told ESPN that the club will work with Nowitzki next month to structure a new deal to his liking," ESPN.com's Marc Stein relayed. "A two-year deal is an option being strongly considered, sources said, despite the fact Nowitzki has made it clear that he wants to make decisions on a season-by-season basis at this stage of his career."
This isn't a matter of where Nowitzki will sign. It's a matter of how much of a discount he'll accept so Dallas is able to pursue other marquee names.
Flight Risk Meter: [Error No. 30,260: dependency service does not exist]
23. Tony Snell, Milwaukee Bucks (Restricted)
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Tony Snell is about to get paid, and the Milwaukee Bucks will be the ones bankrolling his next contract. They have no choice.
With both Spencer Hawes and Greg Monroe opting into the last year of their deals, the Bucks have no cap space. And with Jabari Parker recovering from another ACL injury, they can't ditch a wing who shot 40.6 percent from deep and can defend 2s, 3s and 4s.
Plus, Milwaukee likes him.
"He's getting the opportunity to play, and he's taken full advantage of that," head coach Jason Kidd said in March, per the Journal Sentinel's Matt Velazquez. "He enjoys playing both ends of the floor. If you ask Khris [Middleton] or any of our guys in the locker room, they appreciate what Tony brings to the table."
John Hammond cited re-signing Snell as a top priority before leaving his general manager post to join the Orlando Magic. That mindset doesn't change in the wake of his departure. Other teams—perhaps even Hammond's Magic—can build offers worth $13 million or more per year, but the Bucks have the right to match.
After the season Snell had, match they will.
Flight Risk Meter: Low
22. Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs
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Patty Mills may have played himself out of San Antonio's future.
Just three other players wrapped 2016-17 clearing 22 points and eight assists per 100 possessions while shooting better than 41 percent from long range: Lowry, Paul and Stephen Curry. San Antonio would be lucky to keep Mills at less than $14 million per year.
Such a lofty price tag doesn't support a return. The Spurs have $15.5 million committed to Tony Parker next season, with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White also on the roster. Keeping Mills drags their point guard salary obligations north of $30 million. And if they're shelling out that much, it's because they've signed another star.
Sources told Stein the floor general would give the Spurs "serious consideration" in free agency. He's in Houston now, but it's no coincidence that LaMarcus Aldridge hit the chopping block ahead of the draft, according to ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Michael C. Wright. San Antonio is angling to make moves.
It helps that Mills' cap hold stands at a reasonable $6.8 million until his next contract is signed. The Spurs get to plan around that number until they, well, can't. But next summer's plans matter here as well. Their books will be essentially clean, putting them in line for another superstar addition. They may not be willing to foot the bill for Mills' next deal even if they whiff elsewhere when it'll eat into that flexibility.
Flight Risk Meter: High
21. Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks (Restricted)
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A source told Scout.com's Mike Fisher "multiple" teams are poised to offer Nerlens Noel max money this July, which is utterly ridiculous.
James, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green all spent minutes at the 5 for their respective squads during the NBA Finals. Forking over max money—$24.8 million in Year 1—for a big who doesn't space the floor is cap-sheet suicide. Noel is better at defending in space than most towers, so it's not a complete wash, but it's an unnecessary gamble given the NBA's current trajectory.
Or maybe it's simply a ploy to drum up the Mavericks' operating costs.
Re-signing Noel is the priority after drafting point guard Dennis Smith Jr.—even more so than signing a big name like Jrue Holiday, per Stein. Noel, at 23, factors heavily into the post-Nowitzki era, whenever that begins. Letting him walk for nothing compromises their capacity to compete now and later.
Knowing this, why wouldn't rivals lob a max offer sheet his way? They won't get him, but they'll have successfully lightened owner Mark Cuban's wallet and, most importantly, paved the way for Dallas to make some tough roster decisions down the road.
Flight Risk Meter: Nonexistent
20. J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers
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Purchasing a J.J. Redick jersey is among the worst investments you can make ahead of free agency.
Unless they're custom-ordered Brooklyn Nets or Philadelphia 76ers uniforms.
Both rebuilding squads are expected to make a play for the sharpshooting swingman, according to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. This jibes with league executives telling the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner back in May that Redick would leave the Los Angeles Clippers for an annual salary in excess of $18 million.
Most 30-something free agents won't jump faux-contender ships for up-and-comers (Sixers) or down-to-the-studs rebuilders (Nets). But the Clippers are kaput without Paul, and Redick is unique. He just finished up a four-year, $26.9 million deal that became one of the league's best bargains. Netting a three-year, $60 million payday will appeal to him regardless of the team funding it—particularly when the contract comes with a larger role, as O'Connor pointed out:
"He is one of the greatest three-point shooters in league history and is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high six three-point attempts per game. That's a lot of triples, but it's not enough. Even Sixers swingman Robert Covington averaged more last season, at 6.1 per game, and he shot only 33.3 percent. A gunslinger of Redick's caliber should be averaging about 8.5 treys, in the same range as Klay Thompson or Eric Gordon. Had Redick taken 8.5 threes last season and posted the same 42.9 percent clip, he would've averaged 18.2 points per game. Redick could receive those chances with the Sixers or Nets, all while living within close proximity to his home in Brooklyn."
Redick is a complete goner following Paul's exit. More shots are now available, but Blake Griffin's return wouldn't be nearly enough for the suddenly scrambling Clippers to justify paying Redick what other teams will.
Flight Risk Meter: He Gone
19. C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers
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Forget about Paul George and the fact that he may be recruiting stars to play for a certain purple-and-gold team he hasn't joined yet. C.J. Miles was a flight risk before George.
Cap-rich squads will fawn over knockdown shooters who defend multiple positions, and Miles fits that description to the letter. The Indiana Pacers would match him up with power forwards before George, and he's emerged as one of the NBA's most lethal catch-and-shoot assassins.
Almost 175 players fired off 125 or more spot-up attempts during the regular season. Not one of them posted a better effective field-goal percentage—combined measurement of two-point and three-point efficiency—than Miles (67.5).
This was with playing for a Pacers squad that didn't traffic in a ton of uncontested looks. Stick him inside an elite drive-and-kick or screen-setting offense, and his value increases tenfold.
Indiana has no business paying what it will take to keep Miles. George is good as gone, and 30-year-olds earning high eight-figure salaries don't make sense for most squads in the infancy of a full-blown rebuild.
Flight Risk Meter: Bye, Indiana
18. Andre Roberson (Restricted)
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Good luck getting an adequate read on Andre Roberson's future with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Hashing out a new deal is the goal for both parties. They made that much clear at the end of the season. But Roberson (rightly) turned down a four-year, $48 million extension last fall, according to the Norman Transcript's Fred Katz. It's unclear how much higher Oklahoma City can or is willing to go.
At least one suitor should think about lavishing Roberson with near-max money. His jumper remains broken despite a 41.2 percent clip from downtown in the playoffs; he buried 25.3 percent of his wide-open threes during the regular season. But he's an All-NBA defender who has no issue checking point guards and, at 6'7", some power forwards.
Develop a half-reliable jumper, and Roberson instantly becomes a max player, or someone close to it. And if another team pays hims accordingly, the Thunder probably can't afford it. They'll be lucky to skirt the $119 million luxury-tax threshold even if they cut bait with Taj Gibson and sign Roberson to a manageable salary.
Start throwing out numbers in the ballpark of $16 million or more per year, and the situation becomes untenable. Oklahoma City drafted Terrance Ferguson and, in this fairly likely scenario, could opt to use him as a low-end replacement.
(Make note, Sacramento Kings. Just saying.)
Flight Risk Meter: Moderate to high
17. Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz (Restricted)
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It takes a lot for restricted free agents with tangible value to be flight risks.
Incumbent employers get to match whatever offer they receive, and few, if any, opt out of that luxury. Severing ties with a quality contributor without receiving anything in return when you don't have to is frowned upon by Basic Logic Enthusiasts.
Joe Ingles' foray into restricted free agency is a special case—and thus a potential exception. He turns 30 in October, so the Utah Jazz have to consider how useful he'll be at the end of his deal. And Ingles hasn't done them any favors.
The market for a 44.1 percent three-point shooter who can run half-court offensive sets and switch almost every position on defense will be fiercely competitive. If Ingles commands less than $52 million over four years, something has gone terribly right—for the Jazz.
Gordon Hayward's free agency further complicates matters. Utah shouldn't blink at matching Ingles' best offers if its All-Star forward remains in the fold. But his departure thrusts the team into a full-on rebuild that has no room for a handsomely paid Australian Swiss army knife on the wrong end of his 30th birthday.
Juggling this many caveats drives up the flight-risk factor. And the situation isn't about to improve with the Boston Celtics angling to add both Hayward and Paul George by summer's end, according to Wojnarowski.
Flight Risk Meter: High
16. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
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Andre Iguodala is only a flight risk if the rest of the NBA despises the Golden State Warriors enough to devote however much it takes to chipping away at whichever part of their foundation they can find.
So yes, Iguodala is a flight risk.
No fewer than seven teams plan to pursue him in free agency, according to ESPN.com's Chris Haynes. Among them: the Clippers, Jazz, Magic, Nets, Sixers, Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves.
First of all, shout-out to the Clippers for having dreams even though they don't have cap space or a non-crippling way of getting cap space. Second of all, this widespread interest matters.
League sources told The Vertical's Shams Charania that Iguodala will "seriously consider" outside overtures—sales pitches that promise him an average annual salary of at least $20 million. That feels like noise on the surface, but a three-year, $60 million deal isn't out of the question. The backer sees the light at the end of the tunnel after Year 1, and Iguodala should have at least two more seasons' worth of top-tier defense and solid playmaking left in him.
Kevin Durant will allow the Warriors to retain Iguodala's rights by signing a non-Bird max, so they can match what the market dictates. But the luxury-tax penalties would be exorbitant, even for a team like them. Whenever a free-agency case rests on a player accepting less, there are no assurances of a happy ending.
Flight Risk Meter: Moderate
15. James Johnson, Miami Heat
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April 19, 2017: Miami Heat president Pat Riley says, per the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, he will focus on re-signing in-house free agents.
June 13, 2017: ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reports Miami is "loading up" to pursue Hayward.
June 23, 2017: Riley says this after the draft, as relayed by the Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman:
"We have a plan. We have a Plan A. And we have a Plan B. There's no D, E, F or G. We feel good about the plan. You never know what's going to happen in free agency. We have great respect for the two guys, three guys, four guys that we have that are free agents. But we'll see what happens on July 1st. It's always a pretty exciting time."
Life—or in this case, Pat Riley—comes at you fast.
James Johnson will almost definitely be collateral damage of the Heat's latest superstar hunt. Signing Hayward, Blake Griffin or Paul Millsap will take up most of their cap space while offsetting much of Johnson's own value to the rotation.
Pivot into a chase for Danilo Gallinari or another fringe star, and the Heat can eke out enough leftover flexibility to pay Johnson eight figures annually. Otherwise, staying the superstar course culminates in his departure. He might still be around if they whiff and need to enact Plan B, but his Draymond Green-light chops make him a prime candidate to be scooped up shortly after July 1.
Flight Risk Meter: High
14. JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies (Restricted)
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JaMychal Green shouldn't be playing for a team other than the Memphis Grizzlies next season.
Certain suitors can, and probably will, tender above-market offers. It shouldn't matter. The Grizzlies don't have the cap flexibility to replace their most versatile defender, and with Zach Randolph entering free agency as well, now is the time to double down on a permanent alternative at the 4.
Still, there is a difference between overpriced and illogical, and Green's new deal could straddle that line.
Draymond Green is the only other player this past season who defended as many pick-and-roll ball-handler (50), roll-man (45) and isolation (111) possessions. Stir in a 37.9 percent clip from beyond the arc and nightly hustle that isn't tied to his offensive involvement, and Green is a catch—someone who blends the best aspects of bigs and wings.
All it takes is one cap-rich team (howdy, Denver) peddling a four-year, $65-plus million deal to make the Grizzlies uncomfortable. They have no hope of shirking the luxury tax if they bring back Green along with Randolph, Tony Allen and Vince Carter. A $17 million-per-year average annual salary for the 27-year-old brings them dangerously close to it without doing anything else.
Flight Risk Meter: Moderate, but uncomfortably so
13. Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors
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Ibaka's plunge from the top 10 deserves more discussion than his free agency.
Raptors president Masai Ujiri gave up Terrence Ross and a first-round pick to get him. He's not in the business of forfeiting valuable assets for a player he doesn't intend to keep, and sources told Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler the two sides have a handshake agreement on a new deal that "will start in the $20 million range."
This tracks with the Raptors' cap space—in that they don't have any. Replacing Ibaka is impossible. There isn't another floor-spacing shot-blocker on their roster or in their price range.
At the same time, it's fair to wonder whether Ibaka is worth $20 million or more per year. He's among the NBA's original contemporary bigs—one of the few to marry three-point shooting with rim protection. But the most ideal skyscrapers have expanded their armories to include more defensive tricks and additional playmaking responsibilities.
Ibaka doesn't have those resources in his toolbox. He cannot switch pick-and-rolls, and his value as a rim protector has suffered as result. Asking him to put the ball on the floor or make the quick extra pass is akin to requesting the moon.
Maybe he evolves, but it's unlikely. He's 27, and his production has ostensibly plateaued. Giving him $20 million in the new cap climate is more than fair, and the Raptors don't have another option. But his next contract would look so much better on a team that doesn't need more versatility out of its frontcourt positions.
Flight Risk Meter: Virtually nonexistent
12. Jeff Teague, Indiana Pacers
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Jeff Teague's exit is yet another inevitable offshoot of the inevitable Paul George trade that is inevitably going to happen in advance of his inevitably leaving Indiana to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Pacers can technically get away with keeping Teague. He's not a viable building block at 29 when starting from scratch, but he has some experience playing off the ball. He won't derail the development of a younger prospect, and his next contract should be movable for at least the next two seasons.
Except, team president Kevin Pritchard isn't thinking along those lines. He's "considering" Lance Stephenson the point guard, per the Indianapolis Star's Gregg Doyel. That's not the train of logic for someone even remotely open to re-signing his incumbent floor general.
And it makes sense. Teague is good at basketball. The Pacers won't be able to thoroughly bottom out with him. Indiana isn't a market that can get by as the second-coming of Sam Hinkie's Sixers, but the Pacers can justify one season of full-fledged tanking—exponentially increasing the amount of damage keeping Teague would inflict.
Where he ends up is anyone's guess. Holiday, Lowry and George Hill will get looks before him, while the Kings, Nets, Sixers and Chicago Bulls have all thrown wrinkles in the point guard market by bringing in new blood at that spot.
The Timberwolves "remain intent on dealing" Ricky Rubio, per Stein, so they could become an option. The Magic and Nuggets are possibilities, and the Kings are forever wild cards.
Flight Risk Meter: HE SO GONE
11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (Restricted)
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The Detroit Pistons have a message for admirers who hope a max deal will lure Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out of Motor City: Settle down. It's not happening.
Detroit is "prepared to match any offer sheet he receives, even if it produced a maximum contract," according to the Detroit Press' Vince Ellis, who went as far as calling Caldwell-Pope the "safest" player on the roster.
Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson must feel so special right about now.
There are no holes in this stance. Caldwell-Pope is the Pistons' most valuable player—the one they would have the toughest time replacing. He is no stranger to defending All-NBA scorers, has close to a league-average touch from behind the three-point line (35 percent last season) and orchestrated more pick-and-rolls per game in 2016-17 than any of Detroit's non-point guards.
Merge Luke Kennard and Stanley Johnson into one player, and the Pistons have their Caldwell-Pope successor. Failing that scientific advancement, they must be resigned to paying him the $24.8 million max salary he's likely fetching on the open market. They'll cope with the luxury-tax implications at a later date.
Flight Risk Meter: Nonexistent
10. Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets
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Gallinari isn't pretending the Denver Nuggets are his first option. He's a realist. He knows he'll be a wanted man.
And yet, his comments to Premium Sport, as translated by Sportando's E. Carchia (h/t NBC Sports), are nevertheless bizarre and atypical of most premier free agents.
"[The] Nuggets are not my first choice, but they are exactly at the same level of the other teams," he said. "Denver's advantage is that they can offer me a five-year contract while other franchises can offer me a four-year deal. [The] Nuggets are at the same level of the others."
This runs counter to his April interview with BlitzTV (via Sportando), during which he said, "I would love to remain with the Nuggets."
Times change. People change. Also, the Nuggets already had a bajillion wings. After trading for Trey Lyles and drafting Tyler Lydon, they now have a trillion stretch-4 options. A soon-to-be 29-year-old Gallinari who should cost more than $20 million per year is suddenly expendable.
Keeping him remains in play if the Nuggets are unable to reel in a patented superstar. They hope to "crash" the list of suitors for Griffin and Millsap, according to Haynes and Stein. Renouncing Gallinari's rights is an integral part of creating the max space it'll take to sign them unless they're offloading a couple of contracts.
If those pursuits go south, if Gallinari hasn't been signed by another team interested in his shooting and ability to draw fouls, and if his contract demands aren't too steep, a return is in the cards.
But that's a lot of "ifs."
Flight Risk Meter: High
9. George Hill, Utah Jazz
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Though Hill's return to the Jazz has never felt like a foregone conclusion, his departure hasn't, either.
Until now.
League sources divulged to Stein that "Utah is among the teams to express trade interest" in Ricky Rubio. That's not the target of a squad prepping to dole out market money for its starting point guard.
Perhaps the Jazz consider Rubio a cheaper contingency in the event Hayward bolts and they don't want to start over but also don't want to pay Hill. Maybe they're high on the idea of pairing Rubio with Milos Teodosic, the best playmaker not in the NBA, who Eurobasket's David Pick reported is on the Jazz's radar.
Or, more likely, Hill just might be too expensive, period—Hayward or no Hayward.
General manager Dennis Lindsey has publicly braced for the prospect of Hill's getting a "crazy offer" the Jazz won't match. And he was right, in theory, to do so.
Curry, Lowry, Paul and Mike Conley were the only other players to surpass 28 points, six assists and three made triples per 100 possessions while matching Hill's efficiency from deep (40.3 percent). That "crazy offer" is coming, even in a point guard-heavy market.
Re-signing Hayward might not be enough to sell the Jazz on blowing past the luxury tax for a 31-year-old Hill, who has yet to appear in 60 total games for them.
Flight Risk Meter: High(er than we thought)
8. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
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Go ahead and pencil in Holiday for a return to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Staying put has long been the most likely outcome to his free agency. The Pelicans can dangle a fifth year other suitors cannot, and as of February, according to Kyler, they were willing to hand him near-max money.
DeMarcus Cousins' arrival changed things. New Orleans is designing an offense around him and Anthony Davis. Holiday stands to get marginalized with two players superseding him in the pecking order. The promise of a larger role might entice him to leave town.
But, again, the money.
"I think New Orleans is prepared to spend, from what I understand," ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst said on a recent episode of The Lowe Post podcast (via The Bird Writes). "I think ownership understands the point in time they are with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Even if you don't look at him as a $30 million point guard, he's about to head there from what I understand; it will be very close."
Holiday isn't turning down that much cash. Other teams likely won't come close to meeting his $29.7 million max in Year 1. Dallas isn't interested in cleaning house for a point guard after drafting one, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, and possible big-spenders like Brooklyn (D'Angelo Russell trade), Philly (Markelle Fultz) and Sacramento (De'Aaron Fox) are in a similar boat.
New Orleans looks a lot more appealing to Holiday now that it's one of a scant few admirers positioned to pay him.
Flight Risk Meter: Low to nonexistent
7. Otto Porter Jr., Washington Wizards (Restricted)
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Otto Porter's odds of leaving the Washington Wizards are so comically low that we're not going to discuss them.
Instead, let's talk about John Wall. More specifically, let's rap about Wall's decision to recruit Paul George at the expense of young Otto. As he told ESPN.com's Marc J. Spears:
"Look at our team. We are one piece away. We have the point guard, we have the shooting guard, we have the center, we have the power forward. Our 3-man [Otto Porter Jr.] did great for us. You can't take nothing away from what he did. But [George] is a guy that can guard LeBron [James] and go back at LeBron. It's a piece that you're going to need to win. If you don't have a guy who can do that, you don't have a chance."
Everything sounds fine at first, because Wall almost implies Porter is the power forward—which, awesome. But then, just like that, it becomes clear this isn't what he was saying. He uses Porter to illustrate how much further Washington must come before challenging Cleveland and Golden State.
In no way is this a good approach. Porter will one day be the Wizards' best defender. He might be there already. More importantly, he isn't going anywhere, even if Washington somehow acquires George.
It's jarring to think, even for a second, Wall would be fine with unlikely sign-and-trade scenarios that send Porter to Indiana in exchange for George. The latter is a flight risk who, per Wojnarowski, has informed the Pacers he'll leave in 2018 to join the Lakers. Porter will be under team control for the next four or five years.
And besides, the Wizards know Porter is a good fit. Will George be cool with more than half his looks coming as standstill opportunities? It's possible Wall misspoke, and that his heart's in the right place. The Wizards better hope so, because Porter isn't leaving, and us media folk won't shy from making "Bradley Beal-John Wall Marital Problems 2.0" jokes if given the chance.
Flight Risk Meter: Nonexistent, times infinity, to the billionth power
6. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Dumping Dwight Howard on the Charlotte Hornets doesn't mean the Atlanta Hawks have punched the reset button until they give up on re-signing Millsap.
In related news, Atlanta has punched the reset button.
According to Windhorst, the Hawks "have begun getting some feelers on" sign-and-trade scenarios involving Millsap. That chatter isn't significant for its substance. Sign-and-trades aren't popular these days. There is no financial incentive for the player. Helping the Hawks secure a return for his services—something they could have done, but didn't do, at the past two trade deadlines—only makes sense if Millsap is enamored with a team over the cap.
That doesn't align with the suitors identified by Windhorst: Denver, Phoenix and Sacramento. It's a different story if Houston, San Antonio or another contender joins the party, or if a team like Denver wants to grab Millsap after first burning its cap space elsewhere.
Slice it up however you like. The most important takeaway from this remains the Hawks' interest in moving on from Millsap at all. They're clearly rebuilding, so neither they nor him has use for the other anymore.
Flight Risk Meter: HE GONE
5. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
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Lowry's free agency is much ado about nothing.
The word following Toronto's postseason exit, according to Stein, was the All-Star point guard would contemplate signing with a Western Conference team. The Toronto Star's Bruce Arthur also heard around the same time Lowry had "zero interest" in re-signing with the Raptors.
It didn't take long for the rumor-mill subject himself to quash that report. Ujiri hopped aboard the debunking bandwagon as well, telling reporters (h/t The Score) that Lowry has "been a part of our organization, and he says he wants to come back."
I'm exhausted. Are you exhausted?
Some of Lowry's leverage is gone. Brooklyn, Philly and Sacramento adding to their backcourt curbs his list of landing spots just like it does for every other free-agent point guard. Houston is yet another option off the board following Paul's arrival. Denver and, if coach-president Tom Thibodeau dumps Rubio, Minnesota are options, but that could be it.
Toronto remains Lowry's most likely landing spot, if only because the list of others is unimpressive and shrinking by the transaction.
Flight Risk: Low, and getting lower
4. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
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Griffin's open-market exploration can be looked at from two different angles.
Vantage Point No. 1: This is first time he's entering free agency. At 28, after spending the last six years living in Paul's shadow, he has the motive to leave the Clippers and the timeline flexibility to consider teams that aren't immediately trying to knock off the Warriors.
Vantage Point No. 2: Griffin has missed 83 games over the past three seasons and prematurely exited each of Los Angeles' last two playoff runs due to injury. Freak misfortune? For sure. But the Clippers will offer him a five-year max, per Turner. He should take the security and roll with his current digs for better or worse.
There is no wrong answer entering free agency. Nor is there a correct one. Too much is left up in the air. Griffin no doubt wants to get a pulse for how the futures of Redick and Luc Mbah a Moute play out. His decision could hinge on who stays and who goes following Paul's relocation to Houston, and even knowing that much doesn't help us keyboard detectives.
Does Paul's exit drive Griffin to follow suit? Will he be enthralled at the chance to be the Clippers' headliner? Can he trust that DeAndre Jordan and himself are enough to contend? Does he believe he'll have it better on a team, such as the Celtics or Heat, known for fleshing out a competent supporting cast?
These questions will inevitably get answers. For now, Griffin's free-agency status, like the Clippers' entire offseason outlook, can be summed up with a giant shrugging emoji.
Flight Risk Meter: High
3. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
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Try as the Heat and other suitors might to woo Hayward, his free agency is a two-team affair.
In one corner, there's the Jazz, the only NBA home he's ever known. They're working off a 51-win campaign, able to offer him a fifth year and trending up if they keep the band together. In the other corner, there's the Celtics. Their head honcho, Brad Stevens, coached Hayward at Butler.
Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey made a compelling case for Hayward to stay put with all this mind:
"With the Jazz, Hayward is the No. 1 option on offense. In Boston, he'll have to compete for touches with Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, incoming No. 3 pick Jayson Tatum and possibly one of the many trade targets the Celtics have been tied to this summer.
In Utah, Hayward plays with a star who's arguably the best defender in the league (he led the NBA in defensive real plus-minus) and who demands very few scoring opportunities (7.7 shots per game) in Rudy Gobert. His partner in crime in Boston would be Thomas, whose usage nearly doubled Gobert's, and who finished 467th among the 468 players included in defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN."
Finding his place in the Celtics offense won't get any easier if they, as Wojnarowski outlined, make good on their attempt to both poach Hayward and acquire George from Indiana.
Counterpoint: Boston's starting lineup of George, Hayward, Horford, Thomas and Avery Bradley or Jae Crowder would trail only Golden State's opening five.
Hayward has some soul-searching to do. Right now, as Tony Jones noted on a recent episode of the Salt Lake Tribune's Utah Jazz Podcast, the 27-year-old All-Star appears "genuinely torn." The Jazz would do well to plan for the worst.
Flight Risk Meter: High to "What up Boston?!?!?"
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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Never mind that Curry has now won two titles with the Warriors. Or that he's not the type of superstar to tire from sharing the spotlight with Durant.
Curry is finally, at long last, about to get puh-aid.
The two-time MVP just put a bow on the final season of a four-year, $44 million deal that quickly became the best bargain in NBA history, bar none. Now, he's on course for a five-year deal that pays him more than $200 million.
Every team can offer Curry the $34.7 million starting salary (35 percent of the cap) he's eligible for in 2017-18—which, for the record, almost triples his $12.1 million earnings from 2016-17. But Golden State is the only one allowed to gift him a fifth year that, assuming 8 percent raises, will be worth more than $45 million.
He is so not gone.
Flight Risk Meter: Don't call, don't text, don't DM...Riley is sleeping
1. Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
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Sorry, folks: Durant's free agency won't include a Hamptons getaway this time around.
"The 2017 NBA Finals MVP will turn down a player-option salary of approximately $28 million to momentarily hit free agency with the intentions of taking less than the max he's eligible for as a 10-year veteran," Haynes wrote. "This is in order to improve the Warriors' chances of re-signing reserve stud Andre Iguodala, league sources told ESPN."
Accepting the non-Bird max will cost Durant around $2.8 million. On the one hand, that's not a lot of money. On the other hand, we're talking about a couple million bucks, so it is. And here he is willing to bite the bullet after one year with the Warriors.
What a guy.
Though, to be fair, this isn't a surprise.
Winning a championship and a Finals MVP award tends to bring out the sentimental side in some people.
Flight Risk Meter: Draymond Green clipped his wings
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Team salary information via Basketball Insiders.
