NBA Free Agency 2017: Rumors, Predictions for Gordon Hayward, JJ Redick, More
Now that the postseason, draft and awards show are behind us, the next big event on the NBA's summer calendar is free agency.
Some big names will be on the market, including Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors. But since those two aren't likely to bolt immediately after winning a championship, much of the attention leading up to July 1 has centered on Gordon Hayward.
Will he stay with a Utah Jazz team he just led to a 51-win season and a Western Conference semifinals? Or will he reunite with his college coach, Brad Stevens, on the Boston Celtics?
TOP NEWS
Braun: I'm Nuggets' Leader 🤔
Former NBA player fires back at Draymond
New Mock Draft with the Heat Winning Lottery Simulation 🔮
A breakdown of the most recent rumblings on that, as well as several other recent reports on other free agents will follow.
Gordon Hayward
In a recent episode of The Salt Lake Tribune's Utah Jazz Podcast, Aaron Falk, Tony Jones and Kyle Goon explored a number of Jazz-centric rumors.
No. 1, of course, was Hayward's upcoming decision.
"I'm hearing that he's genuinely torn, and that right now his odds of staying are 50/50," Jones said. "That's not great odds for the Jazz. But I think if he knows that the point guard situation is solidified, I think those odds go up."
The allure of the Celtics and the relationship Hayward once enjoyed with Stevens must be strong. Because leaving Utah is difficult to justify from a purely basketball perspective.
With the Jazz, Hayward is the No. 1 option on offense. In Boston, he'll have to compete for touches with Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, incoming No. 3 pick Jayson Tatum and possibly one of the many trade targets the Celtics have been tied to this summer.
In Utah, Hayward plays with a star who's arguably the best defender in the league (he led the NBA in defensive real plus-minus) and who demands very few scoring opportunities (7.7 shots per game) in Rudy Gobert. His partner in crime in Boston would be Thomas, whose usage nearly doubled Gobert's, and who finished 467th among the 468 players included in defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.
All that aside, though, who among us hasn't experienced some wanderlust at some point? After seven years with the Jazz, Hayward might just want to move into the league's weaker conference and reunite with one of the first coaches who showed an interest in him, per Mark Titus of The Ringer (h/t Bill Simmons Podcast).
Utah may seem like the better basketball fit right now, but the less tangible aspects of this decision may win out in the end.
Prediction: Celtics
Milos Teodosic
As Jones noted above, Hayward's chances of staying in Utah could get a bit stronger if the Jazz figure out what they're doing at point guard soon.
George Hill was ninth among point guards in Basketball Reference's box plus-minus, but injuries held him to just 49 games in 2016-17. And while 21-year-old Dante Exum showed flashes of his potential, he still has a lot of development in front of him.
Enter CSKA Moscow star Milos Teodosic, who seems poised to finally make his NBA debut.
"On Sunday, a Serbian publication, Politika, reported that Teodosic is seriously pondering the move from Europe to the U.S. and that the Jazz are the leading candidate for his services," Jody Genessy of the Deseret News wrote.
If he did make it over to the Jazz, Teodosic would instantly be the best playmaker Utah's had on its roster in years. Over his last three seasons, he's averaged over eight assists per 36 minutes, per Basketball Reference. And ESPN's Fran Fraschilla recently called him "the best passer in the world."
Defense is likely to be a challenge for Teodosic at this level, but his offensive ability would instantly make the Jazz more difficult to stop.
Other teams have been reported to be in the hunt, including the Chicago Bulls, per Eurohoops Nikos Varlas (h/t CSN Chicago). However, the safe money may be on Teodosic reuniting with former CSKA assistant Quin Snyder.
Prediction: Jazz
The Los Angeles Clippers core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick has been together for the last four seasons. Over that timeframe, Redick is ninth in the NBA in threes made, per Basketball Reference. He's second among the 27 with at least 500 makes.
And now that it looks like that core may be breaking up, with Paul, Griffin and Redick all headed to free agency, it looks like some other teams might be pining for Redick's sharpshooting.
"Multiple league sources I've spoken to expect the Sixers and Nets to make a hard push at Redick," Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer wrote.
Both spots make some sense for Redick. And that's not just a reference to their cap space.
In Brooklyn, Redick already has connections and could serve as a veteran mentor for a team on the cusp of a rebuild, per Brian Lewis of the New York Post:
But Philly might be even more intriguing. The 76ers are on the other end of the rebuilding spectrum. With Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz all in the fold, they may be ready to start winning some games. And that trio could really use the spacing provided by Redick.
It'd be inexperienced, but a lineup of Fultz, Redick, Robert Covington, Simmons and Embiid could be a real problem in the Eastern Conference. And Philly already outscored opponents by 3.2 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor in 2016-17, per the league's website.
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets cannonballed into the rumor mill this week thanks to report ESPN's Marc Stein and Chris Haynes that had them possibly acquiring Kevin Love in a three-team trade that would send Paul George to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
That trade hasn't materialized, and if it doesn't, the Nuggets could opt for another route to landing a new power forward to pair with young superstar Nikola Jokic.
"Denver, according to sources, also hopes to crash the list of suitors for Los Angeles Clippers unrestricted free agent Blake Griffin and Atlanta Hawks unrestricted free agent Paul Millsap," Stein and Haynes wrote.
The talented, but oft-injured, Griffin could turn an already electric Denver offense into a veritable thunderstorm. Jokic and Griffin are first and third, respectively, among 6'10"-plus players in career assist percentage (minimum 1,000 minutes), per Basketball Reference.
But Jokic's one weakness, defense, wouldn't really be helped by a pairing with Griffin.
Millsap, however, could cover a multitude of Jokic's defensive sins. He was 14th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season, per ESPN. And his career defensive box plus-minus is top 50 among 6'8"-plus players, per Basketball Reference.
Millsap can cover the perimeter and protect the rim in a pinch. And he's no slouch on offense either. Since joining the Hawks, Millsap has averaged 17.4 points and 3.3 assists with a .552 true shooting percentage, per Basketball-Reference.
Griffin may have more pure talent, but Millsap is the better fit.
Prediction: Millsap
