2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: The Ultimate Blueprint

Draft day is one of the best days of the year.

It could be the start of a championship run. Or it could be the peak of a season that’s destined to fail.

The good news is everyone gets to start from scratch and build their team to the best of their abilities. Draft position can be important, but it’s more about how you select your players.

I’m routinely asked about strategy and whom to get three rounds into a draft if things go as planned. My answer is always: Be flexible. If we could predict how a draft will unfold, what fun would that be?

In this draft guide, I’ll take you position by position to give you the best plan of action in constructing your roster. We’ll examine my current rankings at each spot in addition to average draft position (ADP) to get an idea of when players may be available. These are coming to you from FantasyPros.

With that, let’s take the first step toward fantasy glory.

Top 100 Overall: Antonio Brown Is Mr. Consistency

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown is the safest best at No. 1 overall.

This year's first round is as unpredictable as we’ve ever seen. The difference in talent and fantasy value between the first and last pick of the opening round is the closest margin I can remember, which means you won’t see a consensus on the top selection, much less the top 12 picks.

You’ll notice I’m going with Antonio Brown at the top of the heap. Picking a wide receiver with the No. 1 overall selection bucks the typical trend, but when looking at the possible options, Brown had the fewest concerns. He’s racked up at least five receptions and 50 yards in 32 straight games with a whopping 348 targets over than span.

Basically, I’m keeping it simple and going with the player who is the most consistently reliable fantasy option at wide receiver or running back. As a wide receiver, it's also less likely he'll get injured. And you can point to injury concerns for all the top running backs.

Be ready for anything and take the player you feel most comfortable selecting when it’s your turn to pick. Having second thoughts about your first selection will only ruin your mindset the rest of the way, and that can sabotage an entire draft.

Bleacher Report Top 100

2015 Overall Draft PPR Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	Position
1	Antonio Brown	Pit	WR
2	Eddie Lacy	GB	RB
3	Le'Veon Bell	Pit	RB
4	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB
5	Demaryius Thomas	Den	WR
6	Dez Bryant	Dal	WR
7	Julio Jones	Atl	WR
8	Jordy Nelson	GB	WR
9	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	WR
10	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE
11	Jeremy Hill	Cin	RB
12	A.J. Green	Cin	RB
13	DeMarco Murray	Phi	RB
14	C.J. Anderson	Den	RB
15	Adrian Peterson	Min	RB
16	Calvin Johnson	Det	WR
17	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	RB
18	Randall Cobb	GB	WR
19	Justin Forsett	Bal	RB
20	Alshon Jeffery	Chi	WR
21	Matt Forte	Chi	RB
22	Mark Ingram	NO	RB
23	Frank Gore	Ind	RB
24	T.Y. Hilton	Ind	WR
25	Mike Evans	TB	WR
26	Jordan Matthews	Phi	WR
27	Andrew Luck	Ind	QB
28	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB
29	Lamar Miller	Mia	RB
30	Brandin Cooks	NO	WR
31	Andre Johnson	Ind	WR
32	DeAndre Hopkins	Hou	WR
33	LeSean McCoy	Buf	RB
34	Joseph Randle	Dal	RB
35	Travis Kelce	KC	TE
36	Jimmy Graham	Sea	TE
37	Emmanuel Sanders	Den	WR
38	Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB
39	Golden Tate	Det	WR
40	Andre Ellington	Ari	RB
41	Kelvin Benjamin	Car	WR
42	Giovani Bernard	Cin	RB
43	Todd Gurley	StL	RB
44	Ameer Abdullah	Det	RB
45	Alfred Morris	Was	RB
46	Julian Edelman	NE	WR
47	Keenan Allen	SD	WR
48	Amari Cooper	Oak	WR
49	Carlos Hyde	SF	RB
50	Melvin Gordon	SD	RB
51	T.J. Yeldon	Jac	RB
52	Brandon Marshall	NYJ	WR
53	Jeremy Maclin	KC	WR
54	Jarvis Landry	Mia	WR
55	Sammy Watkins	Buf	WR
56	Rashad Jennings	NYG	RB
57	Nelson Agholor	Phi	WR
58	Roddy White	Atl	WR
59	Allen Robinson	Jac	WR
60	Greg Olsen	Car	TE
61	Vincent Jackson	TB	WR
62	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB
63	Charles Johnson	Min	WR
64	Peyton Manning	Den	QB
65	Matt Ryan	Atl	QB
66	Arian Foster	Hou	RB
67	Shane Vereen	NYG	RB
68	Latavius Murray	Oak	RB
69	C.J. Spiller	NO	RB
70	Ryan Mathews	Phi	RB
71	Marques Colston	NO	WR
72	Drew Brees	NO	QB
73	Ryan Tannehill	Mia	QB
74	DeSean Jackson	Was	WR
75	Russell Wilson	Sea	QB
76	Anquan Boldin	SF	WR
77	Duke Johnson	Cle	RB
78	Joique Bell	Det	RB
79	Devonta Freeman	Atl	RB
80	Mike Wallace	Min	WR
81	Steve Smith	Bal	WR
82	John Brown	Ari	WR
83	Eli Manning	NYG	QB
84	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR
85	Matthew Stafford	Det	QB
86	Tony Romo	Dal	QB
87	Chris Ivory	NYJ	RB
88	Breshad Perriman	Bal	WR
89	Doug Martin	TB	RB
90	Martavis Bryant	Pit	WR
91	Eddie Royal	Chi	WR
92	Jordan Cameron	Mia	TE
93	Sam Bradford	Phi	QB
94	Michael Crabtree	Oak	WR
95	Martellus Bennett	Chi	TE
96	Delanie Walker	Ten	TE
97	Eric Decker	NYJ	WR
98	Jason Witten	Dal	TE
99	Tom Brady	NE	QB
100	Cam Newton	Car	QB

Quarterbacks: Nothing Wrong with the Waiting Game

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Tannehill is primed for a nice fantasy year in Miami.

Did you chase Peyton Manning’s points from his historic season in 2013? If you took him as the first quarterback off the board, you wound up with the fourth-best QB in the 2014 season and one you couldn’t count on down the stretch.

It’s a lot less risky to chase the points of Aaron Rodgers (top QB) or Andrew Luck (second-best QB) from last year because they’re younger, in better shape and are primed for huge seasons with plenty of weapons around them.

However, there are lots of other options available much later, as we can see by the ADP data.

Here’s how the position shakes out:

• Tiers: After Luck and Rodgers, you can group Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees together. My target of the top 10 would be Ryan Tannehill (No. 7 QB), but if you’re unwilling to make a somewhat unproven signal-caller your starter, Eli Manning (No. 9) is a safe pick and won’t cost you much.
• Rookies: Both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are buried in my rankings and aren’t worth drafting. Winston has better weapons but likely needs more polish and development. Mariota isn’t a finished product, either, and the offensive talent in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired.
• Breakout: Tannehill is the pick here. He’s gotten a little better in each season and comes into the year with some new toys like Jordan Cameron and DeVante Parker in addition to a reliable possession receiver in Jarvis Landry. Plus, he can run, which is a nice bonus.
• Bust: Based on ADP, this has to be Russell Wilson (56). I’m not saying he’s due for a bad year, but as the fourth QB off the board, those are some mighty big expectations for someone who’s never thrown 500 passes in a season. The addition of Jimmy Graham helps, but I’m not banking on Wilson topping his rushing numbers for a fourth straight campaign.
• Sleeper: If you’ve been reading any of my other columns or watching my videos on Team Stream, you know I’m a big fan of Philadelphia QB Sam Bradford in Chip Kelly’s offense. Kelly has gotten strong fantasy production out of Michael Vick, Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, so with Bradford's talent being a cut above those three, he’s looking like a steal late in drafts.

2015 Quarterback Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Andrew Luck	Ind	16.3
2	Aaron Rodgers	GB	22.3
3	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	60.5
4	Peyton Manning	Den	52.3
5	Matt Ryan	Atl	77.5
6	Drew Brees	NO	60.3
7	Ryan Tannehill	Mia	94.5
8	Russell Wilson	Sea	56
9	Eli Manning	NYG	97.3
10	Matthew Stafford	Det	92.3
11	Tony Romo	Dal	86.8
12	Sam Bradford	Phi	131
13	Tom Brady	NE	93.5
14	Cam Newton	Car	77.5
15	Carson Palmer	Ari	159.3
16	Teddy Bridgewater	Min	134
17	Joe Flacco	Bal	146
18	Philip Rivers	SD	111.3
19	Jay Cutler	Chi	163
20	Andy Dalton	Cin	170.8
21	Derek Carr	Oak	181.8
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	NYJ	N/A
23	Alex Smith	KC	221.3
24	Colin Kaepernick	SF	138.5
25	Jameis Winston	TB	157.5
26	Marcus Mariota	Ten	176.8
27	Nick Foles	StL	204.7
28	Robert Griffin	Was	200.3
29	Blake Bortles	Jac	210.7
30	Ryan Mallett	Hou	N/A
31	Brian Hoyer	Hou	N/A
32	Josh McCown	Cle	260
33	Mark Sanchez	Phi	N/A
34	Matt Cassel	Buf	N/A
35	Tyrod Taylor	Buf	N/A
36	Johnny Manziel	Cle	N/A
37	Jimmy Garoppolo	NE	N/A
38	Colt McCoy	Was	N/A
39	Derek Anderson	Car	N/A
40	Jimmy Clausen	Chi	N/A
41	Geno Smith	NYJ	269.7
42	Drew Stanton	Ari	N/A
43	Brandon Weeden	Dal	N/A
44	Chad Henne	Jac	N/A
45	Mike Glennon	TB	N/A
46	Zach Mettenberger	Ten	N/A
47	Brock Osweiler	Den	N/A
48	Shaun Hill	Min	N/A
49	Matt Moore	Mia	N/A
50	Scott Tolzien	GB	N/A

Running Backs: After the Best, Don't Worry About the Rest

Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell broke out last year. Can he put up similar numbers?

The old-school method of drafting says you have to get a running back in the first round, or at least one in the first two rounds. Old school doesn’t win you a championship. You have to be progressive to win in fantasy football.

If you can get one strong RB1 in the first two rounds, don't worry about filling the RB2 spot with a single player. Waiver-wire gems can work wonders. C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett and Tre Mason were perfect examples of players on championship teams who weren't even drafted.

The first two rounds may not net you a RB, but fear not, because you can still have a strong roster with your first RB coming in the third round. A wide receiver/wide receiver start may produce the best players at the time of your selection, so grabbing Forsett, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller or Mark Ingram as your top RB isn’t a bad thing if you’re strong at WR.

If you don’t come out of the first four or five rounds with two RBs, the strategy focuses on finding multiple players to fill that spot over the season since you can't expect one to be locked into that role all year. Names like Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead can be had later on, especially in Woodhead’s case.

Here’s how to approach the position:

• Tiers: The first eight players in my rankings are RB1s, although Forsett has a chance to creep into that mix. The strong RB2 group starts with Matt Forte and ends with Jonathan Stewart. Those are the best options to fill the RB2 spot for the longest period of time based on talent and opportunity. I realize that you may end up with someone from the RB2 group as your RB1. That’s OK as long as you’ve drafted well around that spot.
• Rookies: Todd Gurley tops the list based on talent, but he may get off to a slow start, which is to be expected coming off a major knee injury. My favorite rookie RB to open and close the season as a great option is Ameer Abdullah. Other rookies, like Melvin Gordon and T.J. Yeldon, are solid RB2 options. Duke Johnson is a nice sleeper pick and won’t cost much, and David Johnson is my deepest sleeper at the position, especially after the Cardinals signed Chris Johnson.
• Breakouts: I’m being very aggressive with my ranking of Jeremy Hill. While he was great as a rookie, he looks like he'll stay in the RB1 tier this year.
• Bust: LeSean McCoy is getting way too much respect with an ADP of 15.3 coming off a rocky season in Philadelphia and joining a new, worse team in Buffalo. He’s one of the most overrated players in fantasy football.
• Sleepers: As mentioned earlier, names like Anderson and Mason didn’t make a major impact until the second half of the season. So keep an eye on David Johnson in Arizona and Matt Jones in Washington.

2015 Running Back PPR Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Eddie Lacy	GB	4.5
2	Le'Veon Bell	Pit	1.3
3	Jamaal Charles	KC	3.8
4	Jeremy Hill	Cin	18
5	DeMarco Murray	Phi	17.8
6	C.J. Anderson	Den	11.8
7	Adrian Peterson	Min	2.8
8	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	9
9	Justin Forsett	Bal	23.3
10	Matt Forte	Chi	11.8
11	Mark Ingram	NO	35.3
12	Frank Gore	Ind	30
13	Lamar Miller	Mia	30.5
14	LeSean McCoy	Buf	15.3
15	Joseph Randle	Dal	45
16	Jonathan Stewart	Car	49.5
17	Andre Ellington	Ari	41.8
18	Giovani Bernard	Cin	57.8
19	Todd Gurley	StL	44
20	Ameer Abdullah	Det	54
21	Alfred Morris	Was	37.8
22	Carlos Hyde	SF	42.5
23	Melvin Gordon	SD	30
24	T.J. Yeldon	Jac	49.5
25	Rashad Jennings	NYG	72
26	Arian Foster	Hou	52.3
27	Shane Vereen	NYG	74.8
28	Latavius Murray	Oak	41.8
29	C.J. Spiller	NO	41.8
30	Ryan Mathews	Phi	104.3
31	Duke Johnson	Cle	100
32	Joique Bell	Det	68.5
33	Devonta Freeman	Atl	94.5
34	Chris Ivory	NYJ	83.8
35	Doug Martin	TB	71.8
36	Isaiah Crowell	Cle	81.3
37	Danny Woodhead	SD	114.8
38	Tre Mason	StL	87.3
39	David Johnson	Ari	121.3
40	Alfred Blue	Hou	116.3
41	Chris Polk	Hou	181.5
42	David Cobb	Ten	134.8
43	LeGarrette Blount	NE	78
44	Jonas Gray	NE	184
45	Roy Helu	Oak	148
46	Charles Sims	TB	125.3
47	Andre Williams	NYG	145.3
48	Tevin Coleman	Atl	74.8
49	Darren Sproles	Phi	125.8
50	Reggie Bush	SF	118.8
51	DeAngelo Williams	Pit	149.5
52	Knile Davis	KC	125
53	Matt Jones	Was	181.5
54	Bishop Sankey	Ten	95.8
55	Jay Ajayi	Mia	156.3
56	Jerick McKinnon	Min	192.3
57	Montee Ball	Den	153.8
58	James Starks	GB	218
59	Fred Jackson	Buf	187.8
60	Darren McFadden	Dal	114.5
61	Theo Riddick	Det	196
62	Dan Herron	Ind	191.5
63	Branden Oliver	SD	201.3
64	James White	NE	195
65	Travaris Cadet	NE	239.5
66	Cameron Artis-Payne	Car	182.5
67	Bilal Powell	NYJ	306
68	Dexter McCluster	Ten	N/A
69	Denard Robinson	Jac	195.3
70	Robert Turbin	Sea	233
71	Lorenzo Taliaferro	Bal	222
72	Javorius Allen	Bal	232
73	Matt Asiata	Min	187
74	Khiry Robinson	NO	250.7
75	Ronnie Hillman	Den	233
76	Dri Archer	Pit	243.7
77	Josh Robinson	Ind	250
78	Terrance West	Cle	120.8
79	Zac Stacy	NYJ	281.5
80	Stevan Ridley	NYJ	220.3

Wide Receivers: The Position That Can Be the Cornerstone of Your Team

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Demaryius Thomas is primed for a big year in Denver.

Starting your draft with two wide receivers shouldn't be scary anymore. It's not imperative to come out of the first two rounds with at least one running back, especially since the draft order may put you in a position to take two WRs, if they are the best players available when it’s your turn to pick. 

Much like the RB group, there aren't 10 WRs I’d feel comfortable calling my WR1.

This may come down to personal preference for you, but I must have one of my top-nine WRs. Starting with a pair of wideouts is much more appealing than starting with a pair of RBs. It’s not worth investing that much in RBs since they are more likely to get hurt. 

The WR group as a whole still looks deeper than the RBs, but it does get a little murky once you get into the fourth and fifth rounds. You can easily pick apart guys like Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin and Sammy Watkins. That's even more reason to come out of the first three rounds with two WRs.

This how to position shakes out:

• Tiers: Randall Cobb, the No. 9 receiver, is the line for the WR1 group. Some will argue Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton and Mike Evans belong there as well, but there are enough concerns about each of them to push them out of that tier. Jordan Matthews, Brandin Cooks, Andre Johnson and Golden Tate can be realistically targeted as WR2s.
• Rookies: Amari Cooper is on a tier all on his own when it comes to the rookie WRs, although his ADP is a little high for my liking since it puts him firmly in the WR2 tier (47.5). Nelson Agholor is my second rookie WR. I’m higher on him than most, but he should start for the Eagles and I’ll do anything I can to invest in that offense. Breshad Perriman is one to watch in Marc Trestman’s fantasy-friendly offense in Baltimore.
• Breakouts: Matthews is the man in Philadelphia and should be highly involved in the most active offense in football, according to TeamRankings.com. With an upgrade at QB in Sam Bradford, Matthews has a chance to be a WR1.
• Busts: Watkins has me worried. Talent isn’t an issue, but the Bills will run it more and their QB situation may be the worst in the league. Add in a very good defense, and the opportunities may not be there for Watkins this year.
• Sleepers: In addition to Agholor, I’m excited about Charles Johnson in Minnesota, John Brown in Arizona (considering Michael Floyd's dislocated fingers), and solid seasons from Eddie Royal in Chicago and Stevie Johnson in San Diego. Looking real deep, consider Phillip Dorsett if he wins Indy’s third WR job.

2015 Wide Receiver PPR Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Antonio Brown	Pit	3.3
2	Demaryius Thomas	Den	10.5
3	Dez Bryant	Dal	8
4	Julio Jones	Atl	9.3
5	Jordy Nelson	GB	17
6	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	8.8
7	A.J. Green	Cin	18.8
8	Calvin Johnson	Det	15
9	Randall Cobb	GB	21.8
10	Alshon Jeffery	Chi	23.5
11	T.Y. Hilton	Ind	25.8
12	Mike Evans	TB	25
13	Jordan Matthews	Phi	36.3
14	Brandin Cooks	NO	31.8
15	Andre Johnson	Ind	46
16	DeAndre Hopkins	Hou	31.3
17	Emmanuel Sanders	Den	31.5
18	Golden Tate	Det	49.5
19	Kelvin Benjamin	Car	35.5
20	Julian Edelman	NE	44.5
21	Keenan Allen	SD	49.8
22	Amari Cooper	Oak	47.5
23	Brandon Marshall	NYJ	59.3
24	Jeremy Maclin	KC	62.3
25	Jarvis Landry	Mia	57.3
26	Sammy Watkins	Buf	52.5
27	Nelson Agholor	Phi	80.5
28	Roddy White	Atl	80.5
29	Allen Robinson	Jac	66.5
30	Vincent Jackson	TB	73.5
31	Charles Johnson	Min	84.5
32	Marques Colston	NO	111.5
33	DeSean Jackson	Was	62
34	Anquan Boldin	SF	104.3
35	Mike Wallace	Min	78.5
36	Steve Smith	Bal	104
37	John Brown	Ari	104.8
38	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	96.3
39	Breshad Perriman	Bal	111.3
40	Martavis Bryant	Pit	60.5
41	Eddie Royal	Chi	154.8
42	Michael Crabtree	Oak	145.8
43	Eric Decker	NYJ	99.3
44	Pierre Garcon	Was	107.8
45	Brandon LaFell	NE	94.5
46	Michael Floyd	Ari	101
47	Torrey Smith	SF	106.3
48	Victor Cruz	NYG	87.5
49	Brian Quick	StL	163.8
50	Stevie Johnson	SD	149.3
51	Rueben Randle	NYG	160.3
52	Josh Huff	Phi	N/A
53	Phillip Dorsett	Ind	177.5
54	Devin Funchess	Car	156.8
55	Markus Wheaton	Pit	154
56	Kenny Stills	Mia	141.5
57	Kendall Wright	Ten	114.3
58	Terrance Williams	Dal	120.8
59	Davante Adams	GB	103.3
60	Andrew Hawkins	Cle	N/A
61	Doug Baldwin	Sea	171
62	Cole Beasley	Dal	N/A
63	Mohamed Sanu	Cin	212
64	Dorial Green-Beckham	Ten	156.3
65	Percy Harvin	Buf	144.3
66	Marvin Jones	Cin	168.8
67	Dwayne Bowe	Cle	183.8
68	Kenny Britt	StL	188
69	Stedman Bailey	StL	N/A
70	Justin Hardy	Atl	N/A
71	Marquess Wilson	Chi	N/A
72	Cordarrelle Patterson	Min	208.3
73	Cody Latimer	Den	163
74	Greg Jennings	Mia	N/A
75	Malcom Floyd	SD	N/A
76	DeVante Parker	Mia	119.5
77	Tyler Lockett	Sea	N/A
78	Donte Moncrief	Ind	188
79	Marlon Brown	Bal	N/A
80	Nick Toon	NO	N/A

Tight Ends: Breakout Potential vs. Safe Production

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

New England's Rob Gronkowski tops the list of TEs.

Do you favor reliability over potential? If that’s the case, you’ve probably done well with players like Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Heath Miller, while others have suffered with the likes of Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph and Jordan Reed.

I’ve given up on the idea of the tight end position having depth, because so many TEs disappoint us every year. That’s why there’s a massive gap between the top four TEs and everyone else. Plus, Rob Gronkowski is in a world of his own and is the only TE you’d consider taking in the first round.

You won’t find a consensus when it comes to ranking players from the Nos. 5-15 range, and honestly, I don’t have a lot of confidence in my rankings for those spots. That’s also why it’s not necessary to spend a pick on a TE outside of the top four before the eighth round.

For my TE plan of action, I’m likely waiting to get someone outside of the top four, with Cameron being my primary target since he has the most upside and won’t cost you a high pick. If you want to be boring with an old, reliable veteran, you can wait until the double-digit rounds to grab your starter.

Let’s take a look at the ugliness that is the TE position:

• Tiers: The Gronk tier features one man and one man only. After that, you'll have a decision to make at TE. Do you grab Travis Kelce or Jimmy Graham in the first four or five rounds? If not, you can sit back and wait to grab a TE, because the drop-off is steep, although Olsen goes a little earlier as the clear, top option of the consistent TEs.
• Rookies: Relying on a rookie TE to produce for fantasy is a fool’s errand, and the only two names you’d even consider are Baltimore's Maxx Williams and Oakland's Clive Walford. Both players can be had on the waiver wire, although I am intrigued by Williams’ chance if he lands the starting job at some point.
• Breakouts: Zach Ertz was at the top of this list until he suffered a core injury that required surgery and will keep him out the rest of the preseason. If it knocks down his ADP in triple-digits, the value will be great. I can’t get too crazy about Tyler Eifert, because I’m not expecting Cincinnati to throw it a lot.
• Busts: Julius Thomas (84 ADP) is a long way from having Peyton Manning and a strong Broncos offense around him. It’s a huge step down to Blake Bortles, and now Thomas is the most established talent in the receiving corps for the Jaguars. I’d rather go safer later than take him in the seventh round.
• Sleepers: Eric Ebron won’t cost you much after a disastrous rookie year, and the Lions could use another reliable option in their passing game, which will be very active once again. Jacob Tamme is a deep reach, but he’s clearly the best TE in Atlanta, and the Falcons will have to throw it a bunch with such a bad defense.  

2015 Tight End PPR Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Rob Gronkowski	NE	11
2	Travis Kelce	KC	51.5
3	Jimmy Graham	Sea	29.5
4	Greg Olsen	Car	61.8
5	Jordan Cameron	Mia	95.8
6	Martellus Bennett	Chi	69.5
7	Delanie Walker	Ten	116
8	Jason Witten	Dal	105.3
9	Julius Thomas	Jac	84
10	Zach Ertz	Phi	87
11	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TB	146
12	Coby Fleener	Ind	130
13	Tyler Eifert	Cin	134
14	Kyle Rudolph	Min	151.8
15	Owen Daniels	Den	140.5
16	Eric Ebron	Det	161.5
17	Antonio Gates	SD	145.8
18	Vernon Davis	SF	168
19	Maxx Williams	Bal	218.7
20	Charles Clay	Mia	185
21	Jordan Reed	Was	160.8
22	Heath Miller	Pit	195
23	Jacob Tamme	Atl	N/A
24	Josh Hill	NO	149.5
25	Larry Donnell	NYG	179.3
26	Brent Celek	Phi	N/A
27	Richard Rodgers	GB	N/A
28	Dwayne Allen	Ind	146.3
29	Ben Watson	NO	N/A
30	Jace Amaro	NYJ	N/A
31	Ladarius Green	SD	170.8
32	Jared Cook	StL	209
33	Clive Walford	Oak	N/A
34	Virgil Green	Den	N/A
35	Dion Sims	Mia	N/A
36	Crockett Gillmore	Bal	N/A
37	Scott Chandler	NE	N/A
38	Rob Housler	Cle	N/A
39	Lance Kendricks	StL	N/A
40	Jermaine Gresham	Ari	N/A
41	Troy Niklas	Ari	N/A
42	C.J. Fiedorowicz	Hou	N/A
43	Tim Wright	TB	N/A
44	Luke Willson	Sea	N/A
45	Darren Fells	Ari	N/A
46	Garrett Graham	Hou	N/A
47	Gavin Escobar	Dal	N/A
48	Mychal Rivera	Oak	N/A
49	Jeff Cumberland	NYJ	N/A
50	Marcedes Lewis	Jac	N/A

Defense/Special Teams: Look No Further Than the AFC East

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Ndamukong Suh has the Dolphins D poised to be a top-10 fantasy unit.

My best advice for selecting defenses is to stop chasing last year's points. The best defenses don't always produce for fantasy, and the worst ones can get lucky with some opportunistic TDs. The Eagles didn’t have much talent in their secondary and gave up 400 points, but they scored 11 TDs between their defense and special teams so they finished as the top unit last year.

There's no reason to take a defense outside the final three rounds, but you inevitably see someone take the Seahawks too early, even though they were sixth at the position last year. If you’re taking a defense early, you'd better be sure it is giving you a major advantage over everyone else. Here’s a spoiler: That defense doesn’t exist in fantasy.

The approach for defenses is as follows:

• Tiers: The Bills, Jets, Rams and Seahawks top the list, but there’s no way I’m taking Seattle at that ADP (108.8). As you can see, the next tier doesn’t have much clarity, so pick your favorite and try to get it as late as possible.
• Breakouts: Not only have the Dolphins added talent, but they also get to face the Bills and Jets twice this season. Schedule can be a big key to picking your defense if you know it'll be facing some bad offenses, especially early in the season.
• Busts: As mentioned, at their current ADP, the Seahawks won’t live up to those lofty expectations, even in a bad offensive division. Stop taking defenses so early.
• Sleepers: If they didn’t have to play the Lions and Packers twice, plus a trip to Denver, the Vikings would've ranked much higher. Head coach Mike Zimmer is one of the best defensive minds in the sport, and he can game-plan to make life hard on any opponent. They’ll be a good matchup play this year.  

2015 Defense/ST Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Bills	Buf	122
2	Jets	NYJ	152.5
3	Rams	StL	129.5
4	Seahawks	Sea	108.8
5	Texans	Hou	127.3
6	Cardinals	Ari	154.5
7	Ravens	Bal	206.5
8	Broncos	Den	177.8
9	Dolphins	Mia	163
10	Panthers	Car	185.5
11	Packers	GB	182
12	Bengals	Cin	220.5
13	Chiefs	KC	210.3
14	Browns	Cle	N/A
15	49ers	SF	N/A
16	Lions	Det	N/A
17	Patriots	NE	194.8
18	Eagles	Phi	201
19	Vikings	Min	240.5
20	Cowboys	Dal	N/A
21	Steelers	Pit	N/A
22	Colts	Ind	240.5
23	Buccaneers	TB	N/A
24	Jaguars	Jac	N/A
25	Redskins	Was	N/A
26	Giants	NYG	N/A
27	Saints	NO	N/A
28	Chargers	SD	N/A
29	Bears	Chi	N/A
30	Raiders	Oak	N/A
31	Titans	Ten	N/A
32	Falcons	Atl	N/A

Individual Defensive Players: Watt to Do?

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Much like the Rob Gronkowski tier for TEs, we have the J.J. Watt tier for individual defensive players. I'm not a huge fan of IDPs and don't put much time into this niche part of the fantasy world, so I'll typically wait longer than most to tackle the position in my drafts.

Speaking of tackles, how your league scores IDPs can greatly affect how you draft. Solo tackles may be scored differently than assisted tackles, and sacks may be worth more than both. If your league rewards players who rack up the tackles, you can always find those and shouldn’t have to use high picks on your IDPs.

Here’s what to look for:

• Defensive linemen: The elite group is very small and may not be worth reaching for if you don’t get Watt. You’ll notice there aren’t many DLs in my top 20.
• Linebackers: There are a lot more of these players to grab, especially if you’re rewarded in multiple ways for tackles. Lots of options here, so don’t feel like you have to invest early, unless you want some of the elite names like Lavonte David or DeAndre Levy.
• Defensive backs: Don’t be fooled by the big names. If a cornerback is really good and doesn’t see many passes coming his way, then how is he supposed to score points? You can always find these players late in the draft. 

2015 IDP Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	Pos
1	J.J. Watt	Hou	DE
2	Lavonte David	TB	LB
3	Luke Kuechly	Car	LB
4	DeAndre Levy	Det	LB
5	Paul Posluszny	Jac	LB
6	C.J. Mosley	Bal	LB
7	Bobby Wagner	Sea	LB
8	Robert Quinn	StL	DE
9	Alec Ogletree	StL	LB
10	Kiko Alonso	Phi	LB
11	NaVorro Bowman	SF	LB
12	Morgan Burnett	GB	S
13	Harrison Smith	Min	S
14	Chandler Jones	NE	DE
15	Jamie Collins	NE	LB
16	Johnathan Cyprien	Jac	S
17	D'Qwell Jackson	Ind	LB
18	Everson Griffen	Min	DE
19	Calais Campbell	Ari	DE
20	Carlos Dunlap	Cin	DE
21	Paul Worrilow	Atl	LB
22	Reshad Jones	Mia	S
23	Sean Lee	Dal	LB
24	Rob Ninkovich	NE	DE
25	Ziggy Ansah	Det	DE
26	Eric Weddle	SD	S
27	Muhammad Wilkerson	NYJ	DE
28	Cameron Wake	Mia	DE
29	Karlos Dansby	Cle	LB
30	Derrick Johnson	KC	LB
31	Keenan Robinson	Was	LB
32	Curtis Lofton	Oak	LB
33	Jerrell Freeman	Ind	LB
34	Jelani Jenkins	Mia	LB
35	Mychal Kendricks	Phi	LB
36	Mario Williams	Buf	DE
37	Cameron Jordan	NO	DE
38	James Laurinaitis	StL	LB
39	Lawrence Timmons	Pit	LB
40	Olivier Vernon	Mia	DE
41	Telvin Smith	Jac	LB
42	T.J. McDonald	StL	S
43	Fletcher Cox	Phi	DE
44	Jerry Hughes	Buf	DE
45	Danny Trevathan	Den	LB
46	Jurrell Casey	Ten	DT
47	Justin Houston	KC	LB
48	Jerod Mayo	NE	LB
49	Charles Woodson	Oak	S
50	Nigel Bradham	Buf	LB

Kickers: Don't Stress over the Most Useless Position

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Analyzing kickers is a waste of your time, so I’m not going to do it.

If you can get an accurate kicker on a team with a pretty good offense, your fantasy kicker goal should be met. Don't take a kicker until the final round. End of story.

You’ll notice most of the kickers at the top of my rankings are reliable and play on good teams. Good weather helps, but six of the top 10 kickers last season played in New England, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, so don’t put too much stock into conditions. 

2015 Kicker Rankings—Matt Camp

Rank	Player	Team	ADP
1	Stephen Gostkowski	NE	138.7
2	Steven Hauschka	Sea	179.7
3	Justin Tucker	Bal	191
4	Adam Vinatieri	Ind	171
5	Mason Crosby	GB	180.3
6	Dan Bailey	Dal	179.7
7	Cody Parkey	Phi	200.3
8	Connor Barth	Den	210.7
9	Matt Bryant	Atl	226.7
10	Blair Walsh	Min	236.3
11	Nick Novak	SD	224.5
12	Matt Prater	Det	232
13	Caleb Sturgis	Mia	N/A
14	Josh Brown	NYG	N/A
15	Dan Carpenter	Buf	230.5
16	Dustin Hopkins	NO	N/A
17	Garrett Hartley	Pit	226.5
18	Chandler Catanzaro	Ari	246.7
19	Mike Nugent	Cin	N/A
20	Nick Folk	NYJ	N/A
21	Greg Zuerlein	StL	232
22	Robbie Gould	Chi	N/A
23	Cairo Santos	KC	N/A
24	Phil Dawson	SF	N/A
25	Randy Bullock	Hou	N/A
26	Graham Gano	Car	N/A
27	Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	242
28	Kai Forbath	Was	N/A
29	Patrick Murray	TB	N/A
30	Josh Scobee	Jac	N/A
31	Carey Spear	Cle	N/A
32	Ryan Succop	Ten	N/A

Final Thoughts: Ultimately, It's Up to You

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Even Chip Kelly's immense power doesn't extend to fantasy realms.

You can read up on every player, listen to fantasy advice from people like me and break down every position into tiers, but ultimately, you're acting on your gut when it comes to making your picks. I've veered away from my rankings in the heat of the moment, which has looked genius at times and foolish at others.

There's no such thing as the perfect draft. No matter how good (or bad) you feel when the draft comes to a conclusion, your job is far from over. Working the waiver wire is how you win championships. Having a good draft gives you a nice foundation, but that foundation will crack along the way.

It’s important to monitor position battles throughout the preseason but also into the regular season because they’re often not settled by the time Week 1 comes around. You might find the next Justin Forsett or C.J. Anderson on the waiver wire in Week 7 and in your lineup with a championship on the line in Week 16. 

The draft is a great day, but it’s only the start of a long season.

Check out my recent appearance on the Simms and Lefkoe Podcast previewing the 2015 fantasy season. Simms and I bonded over high school football and by the end of my spot, he’s legitimately thinking about diving into the world of fantasy football.