The Most Overrated Players in Fantasy Football This Year

Every year, friends, family, fans and random people on the street ask me who the best sleepers are so they can look smart in their NFL fantasy drafts. Finding those players is certainly important, but what no one ever inquires about are the guys I don’t like.

Maybe we’re just living in a more positive environment (probably not), or maybe that’s part of the draft strategy that gets overlooked (ding ding ding!). 

If every season went according to the fantasy rankings, we’d never be talking about guys such as C.J. Anderson or Justin Forsett. If those guys come out of nowhere and end up among the fantasy elite, then they are obviously replacing others who didn’t live up to high expectations. Those are the players I’m focusing on for this article.

Some of these players have been around a while and are due for a drop-off for a variety of reasons, whether it be age, roster changes or a new coach. Others may be getting overhyped after their performances in 2014. Each player has a unique situation to analyze and his own reasons for being overrated.

Before we get started, let me just say that you don’t have to completely avoid these players. On one hand, I’m not saying LeSean McCoy is going to fall off a cliff in Buffalo and lose all fantasy value. On the other hand, I am saying that many of these players are being drafted too high and won’t live up to the hype.

Drew Brees

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This one should grab your attention, but hear me out before telling me that Drew Brees is money in the bank.

First, I’m not avoiding Brees altogether. In fact, he’s not in store for a bad season at all. What I am expecting is a drop in his fantasy value from previous seasons of being a no-doubt, top-five quarterback, and that is why he shouldn’t be coming off the board as the fourth QB or in the first five rounds, which is where his average draft position stands early in the preseason.

Brees had big numbers last season, but his touchdowns dropped for the third straight year, and he threw 17 interceptions, which is somewhat understandable with the offense trying to make up for the deficiencies of the defense.

The key stat is his pass attempts. He’s attempted at least 650 passes over the last five seasons. Will that continue?

Based on the moves the Saints made this offseason, they’re likely to cut down on the number of throws. They sent Brees’ top target, Jimmy Graham, to Seattle in a deal that brought back center Max Unger, who improves an O-line that was a weak spot in 2014. New Orleans also traded away wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins. Statistically, Graham and Still were the team’s top two receivers.

So how do the Saints plan on replacing 148 catches, 1,820 yards, 13 TDs and 208 targets? Veteran Marques Colston and a healthy Brandin Cooks top the list, but after that, there are plenty of question marks. Graham is a unique player, and to suggest Josh Hill or Benjamin Watson can replicate his role in the offense is just silly.

Can Brees make something out of Nick Toon, Joe Morgan and Brandon Coleman?

Besides the move for Unger, the Saints brought back Mark Ingram and signed C.J. Spiller, which indicates more of a focus on the ground game. They ranked 19th with 406 run plays last year, but based on their offseason moves, it looks like they want to move up that list considerably, which would cut into Brees’ pass attempts.

With a depleted receiving corps and upgrades to both the offensive line and backfield, Brees doesn’t seem like the no-brainer lock to be in the top five. Couple that with his age (36) and experience (entering his 15th season), and it’s fair to expect his numbers to fall off a little.

Sammy Watkins

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So do the Buffalo Bills think Matt Cassel was an upgrade over Kyle Orton? Or is it just another distraction to make us forgot how big of a mistake it was to take EJ Manuel in the first round back in 2013?

No matter who ends up winning the starting job in Buffalo, Sammy Watkins is in trouble.

There’s no doubt he has plenty of talent. As a rookie, he racked up 65 catches for 982 yards and 6 touchdowns on 128 targets (tied for 18th at wide receiver), which was good for just a 51 percent catch rate. While the Bills were 13th with 579 pass attempts, they ranked 20th with 402 rushing attempts. That will change with the new regime.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman ran a San Francisco 49ers offense that was 29th with 487 pass plays and ninth with 470 run plays last year. The 49ers never ranked higher than 29th in pass attempts during his four-year stint in San Francisco. Between the addition of LeSean McCoy and the mess of a quarterback situation, the Bills are likely to stick with Roman’s trend of pounding the rock while limiting the passing attack.

In a better situation, there wouldn’t be much concern with Watkins’ talent shining through. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot working in his favor, so it’s tough to justify his draft status, which puts him at an ADP of 53 as a low-end WR2.

Until the Bills get their QB situation in order, they’ll lean on their rushing attack, which makes Watkins a frustrating fantasy option.

Russell Wilson

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Let me remind everyone reading this, especially you Russell Wilson fans out there, that this is a fantasy-centric column, so his two Super Bowl appearances and one championship do not apply to any argument. I do not doubt him for what he’s done in his first three seasons, especially after it earned him a monster contract extension.

What hurts Wilson’s upside as a fantasy quarterback is how he operates in the context of the Seattle Seahawks offense. His passing attempts have risen each season, but he’s never had more than 452 attempts, 3,475 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns in his three seasons.

The key to Wilson’s fantasy success last season was the work he did as a runner.

He led all QBs in rushing attempts (118), rushing yards (849) and rushing TDs (six). That’s more than double the yards and attempts of the fourth-best rushing QB, Blake Bortles. Wilson’s rushing numbers have risen every year, and as a result, so has the reliance on his legs to provide a lot of his fantasy production. 

According to FantasyPros, the consensus has Wilson as the third-ranked QB behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. He finished in that spot last year based on both total points and fantasy points per game, but I don’t expect him to repeat. 

When I talked with Chris Simms on the Simms and Lefkoe Podcast, he noted that the Seahawks had trouble getting guys open during his visit to camp and added that Jimmy Graham could be a little frustrated in offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s offense. Graham said blocking is “about 75 percent of the offense” in Seattle, according to Jayson Jenks of the Seattle Times. 

Even if the Seahawks ramp up their passing attack with the addition of Graham, it’s not like they’ve made big jumps in passing attempts over Wilson's career. Why would they mess with what works? Plus, other than Graham, there are no elite or even very good receivers on the team. They’ve done fine with that formula, but it doesn’t mean it will translate to more fantasy success.

Wilson can definitely be a QB1 again this season, but expecting him to maintain the same rushing numbers and throw significantly more passes sets the bar a little too high for a team that doesn’t operate that way.

LeSean McCoy

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Fantasy owners will too often fall for the big-name players who carried them in the past, even if they’re showing signs of decline. LeSean McCoy is at the top of that list heading into 2015, and it’s more than just his skills I’m concerned about this season.

McCoy went from a Philadelphia Eagles offense that ranked 22nd in rushing with the best run-blocking offensive line in the league to the Bills, which were ranked 29th in rushing and 31st in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus.

At 12.5 fantasy points per game, McCoy was the 12th-ranked fantasy running back last season in a year that saw him run for the third-most yards (1,319) on the second-most carries (314). He benefited from a great offensive line, which is a big reason he was able to post 4.2 yards per carry (down from 5.1 in 2013), despite dancing around too much instead of hitting holes hard.

With just 28 receptions on 37 targets, it was McCoy’s least-productive season as a receiver and a big reason why he was such a disappointment in fantasy. If the Bills are priming him for such a big workload on the ground, they may try to keep him fresh by featuring Fred Jackson as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield.

The argument for McCoy is that the Bills will run it a bunch under offensive coordinator Greg Roman. His offenses in San Francisco always featured the run, including last year when the 49ers finished ninth with 470 rushing attempts.

Unfortunately, the Bills haven’t added any major pieces to improve their offensive line, which may put McCoy in a position to create more yards on his own.

Buffalo’s QB situation is a mess, and between Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor, the team doesn’t have anything better than an average starter. That'll put a lot more pressure on McCoy to carry the offense, and in turn it puts more focus on stopping him if you’re an opposing defense.

What this boils down to is McCoy looking like a busy player on a bad team.

The volume he’s expected to get doesn’t justify his ADP of 10 and a top-10 ranking as a fantasy running back. McCoy is a perfect example of not chasing points from previous years, especially with a workload that includes the most touches in the league over the last five seasons.

Jarvis Landry

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By all accounts, the Miami Dolphins had a great offseason and are primed to make a run at the playoffs with an offense that’s deeper than it’s ever been under quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Therein lies the problem with Jarvis Landry’s lofty fantasy projections in 2015. 

Last year, Landry finished 31st at the WR position with 11.3 fantasy points per game in points-per-reception formats. As a rookie with a young quarterback, that made him a solid WR3, which is impressive. A deeper look at the numbers shows that while Landry was able to rack up a 75 percent catch rate (84 receptions on 112 targets), he had just 758 yards. That put him at just nine yards per catch and 6.8 yards per target, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Landry’s ADP has him as the 27th wide receiver off the board at pick 63. That’s a low-end WR2 going around the end of the fifth round in fantasy drafts. If the same receiving corps was still around, that would be justifiable, but that’s not the case.

Miami shipped Mike Wallace to Minnesota and saw Brian Hartline (Cleveland) and Charles Clay (Buffalo) leave via free agency. They restocked the receiving crops and then some with the trade for Kenny Stills, the signings of Jordan Cameron and Greg Jennings and the selection of DeVante Parker with the 14th pick overall in this year’s draft.

Even if Landry is more efficient, it’s hard to see a significant rise in targets with so much more talent in the offense, not to mention a better defense that might cut down on how often the Dolphins have to throw. There’s no doubt Landry is a rising star, but expectations are probably too high on such a talented team.

Cam Newton

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Cam Newton’s decline has been apparent in each of his first four seasons, yet fantasy owners keep expecting him to bounce back and reach the superb fantasy numbers he posted as a rookie.

Unlike Russell Wilson, Newton’s passing numbers have dropped each season, going from 4,051 passing yards and 517 attempts as a rookie to 3,217 passing yards and 448 attempts last year. He completed just 58.5 percent of his attempts for a career-low 18 touchdowns. Newton hasn’t improved much as a passer and doesn’t make his receivers better.

As I noted in my concern with Wilson’s rising rushing numbers, it’s hard to keep up and therefore a risky aspect to rely on for fantasy. Since scoring 14 touchdowns in 2011, Newton’s rushing TDs have dropped each year, landing at five in 2014. He’s seen a decline in his rushing attempts and yards, hitting career lows of 103 attempts and 539 rushing yards last year.

In addition to the ankle issue he dealt with early last season, Newton was also bothered by a rib injury and then broke bones in his back as a result of a car crash. At 6'5" and 245 pounds, he may be built to absorb more punishment than other running QBs, but the dip in his numbers isn’t a coincidence.

However, because he hasn’t improved as a passer, the rushing will likely continue because it’s a big part of his game. 

As general manager Dave Gettleman told the Charlotte Observer, the Carolina Panthers don’t plan on holding Newton back in terms of running the ball. That might be reason enough for some fantasy owners to give him another chance, but the injury risk scares me away from trusting him to be my starter.

The addition of Devin Funchess to go along with Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen does give Newton a good set of receivers with size, but both Benjamin and Funchess have plenty of developing to do, and Newton isn’t the type of player to help speed along that process.

Carolina can and will run it, as long as the defense, which struggled early but finished strong last season, can keep games close or in control.

Newton was 17th in fantasy points per game last year, so even a slight improvement in numbers wouldn’t justify his current ADP of 63 as the seventh quarterback off the board. Look elsewhere for a more reliable fantasy starter this season.

Melvin Gordon

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Melvin Gordon probably looks like a curious inclusion on this list. He was drafted 15th overall by the San Diego Chargers to become their new lead back after Ryan Mathews left to sign with the Eagles. He’s coming off a great season at Wisconsin, where he ran for 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns. So why is he overrated?

This is a fantasy vs. reality conversation for me.

Gordon is clearly a talented player, and the Chargers believe in him if they took him in the first round. However, his role as a lead back does not mean he’ll do a lot as a receiver, and that’s a big knock to his fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues.

Gordon caught just 22 passes during his time at Wisconsin, so it’s not like he has a lot of experience as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. With Danny Woodhead fully recovered from the leg injuries that ended his season prematurely last year, the team gets back its primary pass-catcher who also handles himself well near the goal line, as we saw in the first preseason game. 

The other concern for Gordon is his pass protection.

I’ve already discussed the issues in this area, but that remains a primary story in training camp, according to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. Between Gordon’s inefficiencies as a pass protector and Woodhead handling that role quite well, it’s another reason to keep Gordon off the field on third down.

Gordon is going to be a good player and should be among the best three rookie running backs this season, but without a significant role in the passing game, his ceiling isn’t as high as someone such as Ameer Abdullah. Gordon’s ADP is around 29, making him the 17th RB coming off the board, which puts him in the tier of a strong RB2.

Those expectations are just too high for a rookie who doesn’t look like a complete player yet.

Carlos Hyde

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Replacing a legend in Frank Gore won’t be easy for Carlos Hyde, yet fantasy players are setting expectations high for the second-year running back who is coming off a forgettable rookie season.

In 14 games, Hyde rushed for 333 yards and four touchdowns on 83 carries, adding 12 receptions for 68 yards on just 16 targets. He didn’t have any real fantasy value behind Gore, who was 21st in total fantasy points at the position. So in a strong year on a bad team, Gore was a low-end RB2 for fantasy.

The losses of right tackle Anthony Davis and left guard Mike Iupati may not be huge, but it’s not like the team did much to replace them, and that’s why the San Francisco 49ers offensive line is a concern for Hyde this year. He doesn’t have the same kind of power rushing style as Gore, who did a great job of getting skinny and creating extra yards on his own.

Because Colin Kaepernick has yet to develop as a passer quickly enough to put the offense on his shoulders more often, San Francisco has relied on the rushing attack and will likely do so again in 2015, which is good news if you’re looking for volume out of Hyde.

The problem is the addition of Reggie Bush gives the 49ers a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield to take on most of that role, leaving Hyde as an afterthought in the passing game, which is a killer for fantasy. Plus, the 49ers have sustained massive blows on defense and may not be as good this year, which could cut down on how much they’ll run it.

Hyde’s ADP has him coming off the board toward the middle of the fourth round near the 42nd pick as the 21st running back. That’s basically saying he can replicate Gore’s finish from last season, even though the team has clearly taken steps backward. Curb your enthusiasm when it comes to Hyde’s fantasy prospects.

All rankings and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.