Separating the 2014-15 NBA Title Contenders from the Pretenders
Regular-season success isn't everything in the NBA, especially when there have only been a few weeks of that regular season to evaluate. Distinguishing this season's real title threats from aspiring would-be contenders requires some guesswork.
So we analyzed what roughly amounts to the league's 11 best teams and issued verdicts on whether each one is a title contender or pretender.
A note about the Oklahoma City Thunder: Injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have resulted in 11 early losses and last place in the West. For now, they get an incomplete grade with this caveat: If the Thunder qualify for the playoffs and are at full health when they arrive, they will be a dangerous contender. Given this team's recent history and superstar talent, that shouldn't be in question.
Several teams will look to join the Thunder among the West's elite, perhaps replacing Oklahoma City altogether in the event injuries do their worst. Meanwhile, clubs out in the East are eager to prove themselves versus LeBron James' Cavs and Derrick Rose's Bulls.
Here's a look at how they stack up.
Golden State Warriors
1 of 11
While the Clippers got the better of last season's opening-round classic, the Golden State Warriors are making strides under new head coach Steve Kerr and currently boast the league's third-best point differential at plus-10.5 per contest.
The backcourt may be the NBA's best and certainly ranks as its most lethal from beyond the arc. The defense has quickly become one of the league's best with last season's addition of Andre Iguodala and a healthy Andrew Bogut. And the emergence of complementary pieces like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes has created a formidable rotation.
Like the Clippers, Golden State has developed some playoff pedigree over the last couple of seasons, advancing as far as the semifinals in 2013. Now the Warriors are coming into their collective prime and could take a significant step forward in the West thanks to sheer internal development.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe put it back in January: "The roster just makes a lot of sense. Golden State reinvented itself with the Monta Ellis/Andrew Bogut swap, gambling that Bogut could get healthy and transform perhaps the most defensively incompetent franchise in league history."
And that transformation has largely been a success thanks to the new personnel and coaching staffs that have emphasized the importance of getting stops. If Golden State can maintain its defensive integrity, a championship may well be within reach. So long as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are healthy, just about anything seems within reach.
The Warriors may feel like a trendy dark-horse pick, but the results don't lie. Right now, they look as good as any team out West. With the Oklahoma City Thunder destined to plummet in the standings on account of injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, a No. 1 or 2 seed suddenly looks very much within the Warriors' reach.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Clippers
2 of 11
Talent has never been the problem for the Los Angeles Clippers. Nor has leadership.
The combination of head coach Doc Rivers with superstars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is a dangerous one almost regardless of who comprises the supporting cast. But when you throw in a sixth man like Jamal Crawford and a sometimes-dominant center like DeAndre Jordan, it's only natural to expect big things.
Coming off a franchise-record 57 wins last season and the ousting of sideshow owner Donald Sterling, one might also expect this season to be an ideal opportunity to do those big things.
Los Angeles ranked third in the Western Conference a season ago and made its second postseason semifinals appearance in the last three years. By all indications, the Clippers are poised to join the ranks of the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder among the West's truly elite.
Unfortunately, the competition this season will be even stiffer than it was a year ago. Despite the addition of big man Spencer Hawes and the possibility of modest in-house improvement, this team hasn't gotten significantly better even as teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors certainly have.
The other big question is whether this team can improve a defense that ranked ninth last season (per Basketball-Reference.com). That defense currently ranks 18th in efficiency, yielding 106.7 points per 100 possessions.
Though that mark will likely improve this season, there's no reason to believe it will ever be among the league's best. Whether it needs to is another matter. This team scores a lot of points.
The problem is that the West also boasts teams that can score and defend. And those are the teams that will really contend in 2015.
Verdict: Pretender
San Antonio Spurs
3 of 11
Through his first 11 games this season, Tim Duncan is averaging 14.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game. Even at age 38, his elite defense and high basketball IQ make this team far better than his still impressive stat line would suggest.
Younger counterparts like Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard may shoulder more of the scoring burden, but Duncan remains the indispensable anchor to a defense allowing a league-best 97.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
It's taking the Spurs some time to find their shooting stroke, but they almost certainly will, especially when it counts.
After two consecutive appearances in the Finals (and a 2012 trip to the conference finals), the reigning champions may be the safest bet in basketball at the moment. Head coach Gregg Popovich and his rare record of success inspire that kind of faith. Whatever happens between now and April, these guys will be ready to compete.
For the record, San Antonio has yet to win back-to-back titles despite having four previous opportunities. Now facing its fifth, you get the idea this organization would rather not think about it.
"Why haven't we repeated? Because we haven't," Popovich told reporters at media day in September. "If we do, it would be great. If we don't, life will go on, and everything’s cool."
Don't confuse the nonchalance for apathy. In September, Popovich told San Antonio Express-News scribe Buck Harvey (subscription required), "I'm worried for one reason. They are human beings. They are going to feel satisfied."
Risk of complacency may indeed be San Antonio's biggest challenge. Emerging from a stacked Western Conference yet again won't be easy either. By now, however, we know better than to count this team out.
Verdict: Contender
Toronto Raptors
4 of 11
There's a lot to like about the Toronto Raptors. They've raced to the top of the Eastern Conference standings after securing the third seed with 48 wins a season ago. And with young pieces (e.g., Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross) who should improve, this team's best days may be ahead.
How one estimates Toronto's current title chances depends on how you feel about Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. They haven't established themselves as legitimate superstars, but they're very good. If they both started playing career-best basketball in a given series, anything can happen.
But by the time the postseason rolls around, this will be the third- or fourth-best team in the East, finishing with a record in the same neighborhood as the Washington Wizards. Barring injuries or implosions, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will remains conference favorites.
A semifinals or conference finals appearance isn't out of the question, but don't expect a Cinderella season just yet. Yes, Toronto pulled off a 110-93 victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday night and currently ranks first in the East with an 11-2 record. There's no denying the early results.
Unfortunately, there's also no doubt a lot will change between now and April.
Verdict: Pretender
Washington Wizards
5 of 11
Raptors fans aren't going to like this.
While the Bulls and Cavaliers should separate themselves from the Eastern Conference pack in time, there's one team that could force its way into the conversation and stay there. The Washington Wizards are a complete team, boasting top-shelf talent at every position and quietly adding some depth (Kris Humphries, DeJuan Blair) in the offseason.
John Wall may be the East's best point guard, and Bradley Beal may still be in the process of reaching a very high ceiling. Marcin Gortat and Nene get it done in the paint, and then there's the X-factor that makes this team especially intriguing this season.
Though he's unlikely to replace Trevor Ariza's elite perimeter defense, we're still talking about one of the best small forwards this game has seen. His wisdom and toughness will be infectious, and he offers much-needed leadership for a young club.
But what really stands out is that this guy is one hell of a performer when it counts—in the games and moments that win or lose series.
"I feel like you get me on that stage, big game, bright lights, I can still perform at a high level," Pierce told The Washington Post's Mike Wise in October. "Not as consistently as before. And I know I'm playing with better players that need the ball and I don't have to do as much.
"But any given night on a big stage, I feel like I can still be the best player on the court. And that's with whoever is out there—Kobe, LeBron, Durant. Any given night."
There's some truth to that.
Verdict: Contender
Memphis Grizzlies
6 of 11
The Memphis Grizzlies certainly defend like a championship team. And with an old-school post mix of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, this offense can be difficult to stop when it gets rolling.
Thanks to their ability to play smart inside-outside basketball and control the tempo, the Grizzlies generally have a fighting chance regardless of their opposition. Their hot start this season should surprise no one.
But after two opening-round defeats in their four most recent postseason appearances, the Grizzlies are often described as a "dark-horse contender" for a reason.
They just don't seem to have what it takes to march through three rounds of the Western Conference. Having been swept by the San Antonio Spurs in its lone conference finals appearance, Memphis hasn't demonstrated the ability to go all the way and only went that far in 2013 because the Oklahoma City Thunder were missing Russell Westbrook in the semifinals.
The Grizzlies can't consistently keep pace with the West's high-powered offenses. With all due respect to point guard Mike Conley, this roster doesn't have enough perimeter weapons.
As NBA.com's Fran Blinebury put it, "I just don't think they score enough points or have an offense that is diversified enough. In today's NBA, you've got to be able to shoot from the outside, and the Grizzlies' perennial search continues."
Shaun Powell reached a similar conclusion in the same discussion, writing, "Nothing about them screams championship, and nothing about them screams collapse. They're an upper-echelon team that's too good to falter, too flawed to rise above all others."
Chances are the Grizzlies don't mind their low-profile underdog status. They've become no strangers to surpassing expectations, but they remain far less familiar with the NBA Finals, and that won't change this season.
Verdict: Pretender
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 11
On paper, the Dallas Mavericks were a No. 8 seed that lost in the first round last season. But after nearly upsetting the San Antonio Spurs in seven games, Dallas reminded the league that any team featuring a legend like Dirk Nowitzki shouldn't be taken lightly.
Having added center Tyson Chandler and an emerging star in Chandler Parsons this summer, head coach Rick Carlisle almost certainly has his most talented core since the 2011 championship run. This team could very well trade in its No. 8 seed for the top spot this season.
Through their first 11 games, the Mavs led the league with 119.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com, putting them on a historic pace to surpass the 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers for all-time offensive efficiency.
The points onslaught may subside a bit in time, but the point remains: These Mavericks are indeed for real.
They have the personnel. They have the experience. And they have the coaching. So long as Nowitzki is around, they also have a guy who can carry this team with big games on the line even if Parsons is on deck to play that role next.
"One day, that would be great and that would be ideal, but this is Dirk's team," Parsons said in October, per ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon. "Dirk made this team. He's done so much for this organization, so it's hard to even talk about filling those shoes because they're huge shoes to fill.
"He's got three years left. Hopefully I can make it longer than that. I'd love to play with him for a long time, but whatever he's got left, I'm going to try to absorb everything from him."
The sooner Parsons absorbs some of that battle-tested championship pedigree, the sooner this team will become a title favorite. It's already in the conversation.
Verdict: Contender
Portland Trail Blazers
8 of 11
To be completely honest, it's hard to know what to make of the Portland Trail Blazers. Fans will ask, "Why not now?" And they will have a point.
LaMarcus Aldridge was transcendent in last season's opening round against the Houston Rockets. Damian Lillard made the kind of shot legends make (though he still has a ways to go on the legend front).
Pound for pound, there may not be a more complete starting five in the game. Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum assure strong two-way play on the wing. Robin Lopez and Chris Kaman are playing quality minutes at the center spot. Put it all together, and this team can go off for 120 points on any given night despite playing head coach Terry Stotts' stiff brand of defense in the process.
ESPN.com's Rachel Stern persuasively argued that Portland was a legitimate contender back in December of the 2013-14 season. Three out of five ESPN.com analysts recently described the Trail Blazers as credible contenders as well.
So what's not to like?
For one thing, this rotation starts looking pretty questionable once you get past Kaman and reserve point guard Steve Blake. That may be a surmountable problem for now, but this starting lineup's heavy minutes have to take their toll by season's end. And notwithstanding fatigue, having weapons in the second unit can be an important asset in big games—if one guy doesn't have it going, maybe someone on the bench will.
Stotts doesn't have those kind of options with this roster.
And call it a hunch, but it feels like this team may still be another year or two away from really hitting its postseason stride. Lillard has just two rounds of playoff experience under his belt. And prior to last season's run, Aldridge and Batum had been through three consecutive opening-round defeats and two seasons without even qualifying for the postseason.
Postseason experience isn't always essential for a deep push, and one could argue the Trail Blazers already have enough to make their move. Given the competition, however, Portland's time is soon—just not now.
Verdict: Pretender
Chicago Bulls
9 of 11
Derrick Rose's long-awaited return to action has officially returned the Chicago Bulls to the title conversation. And this summer's acquisition of Pau Gasol via free agency makes the arguments on their behalf significantly more compelling.
Alongside reigning Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah and sixth man Taj Gibson, Gasol rounds out what may be the very best interior rotation in the league. Thanks to Jimmy Butler's timely emergence on the wing, head coach Tom Thibodeau suddenly has a range of two-way options who all but guarantee a protracted march through the postseason.
Unlike other would-be contenders in the East, Chicago also features a deep bench replete with competent role players like Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks and rookie Nikola Mirotic.
The lineup has battled injuries thus far but nothing serious enough to jeopardize the big picture. Chicago is an elite defensive team, and years of injuries have taught the Bulls how to gut games out with sheer grit. That will pay dividends now that all the talent is in place.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Rockets
10 of 11
Coming off a 95-92 win against the Mavericks (sans Dwight Howard) and boasting an early 10-3 record, the Houston Rockets have made a compelling case for title credentials so far this season.
But there are reasons to be cautious before including this team among the West's contenders. Despite Saturday's game against the Mavs and a decisive win against the Spurs, many of Houston's wins aren't particularly revealing. Seven of those 10 wins have been against sub-.500 competition.
Two were against the Philadelphia 76ers, and a third came against the shorthanded Thunder.
Moreover, last season's opening-round loss to Portland created real questions about how far James Harden and Dwight Howard can carry this team against top-shelf opponents. The supporting cast also took a step back with the departures of Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin.
And while Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley form a nice tandem of two-way, three-and-D specialists on the perimeter, the Rockets are limited on the playmaking front. Besides Harden, there aren't many candidates to handle the ball and create.
To their credit, the Rockets have been playing excellent defense, giving up just 98.1 points per 100 possessions through their first 12 games—the third-best mark in the league. Should that become a long-term trend, Houston could very well make a deep run in May.
But with deeper and more experienced competition getting in the way, there are limits to what the Rockets will accomplish this time around.
Verdict: Pretender
Cleveland Cavaliers
11 of 11
So the 5-7 start has certainly raised some questions.
Wherever one stands on the answers, it's become increasingly clear that the Cleveland Cavaliers still have a long way to go. Through their first 11 games, the Cavs defense ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, yielding 108.7 points per 100 possessions. And while the offense will sometimes live off talent alone, head coach David Blatt's new system has yet to fully take root.
LeBron James recently admitted he's struggling with the club's slow uptake.
"It's my biggest test," he told reporters this week. "My patience isn't [endless]. I have a low tolerance for things of this nature. So it's something I'm working on, as well, which I knew from the beginning that that was going to be my biggest test to see how much patience I got with the process.
"What helps me out is I've been through it before, but at the same time, I'm a winner, I want to win, and I want to win now. It's not tomorrow, it's not down the line, I want to win now. So it's a fine line for me, but I understand what we're enduring right now."
Sooner or later, that kind of competitiveness will become infectious. Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters' losing habits will give way to the kind of approach four-time MVPs bring with them. Kevin Love will learn what it means to be a sidekick.
James may not relish the opportunity for patience, but the rest of us should give it a try.
Verdict: Contender
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