The Championship Argument for Every Projected NBA Playoff Team
When the NBA playoffs begin, everyone starts from scratch.
The Philadelphia 76ers, led by rising stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, will have zero losses on the ledger. Ditto for the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and everyone else representing the Eastern Conference. The same is true of the Western Conference front-runners and the second-tier teams that have successfully battled their way into the field.
Everyone is 0-0.
Of course, that won't remain true for long. But for a brief period, everyone will harbor fleeting thoughts of running the table and earning the coveted Larry O'Brien Trophy. It's the time of year made for players with irrational confidence (see: Jennings, Brandon).
So let's lend validity to that internal belief by attempting to justify the championship argument for each of the league's 16 projected playoff squads based on their order in the standing going into Tuesday.
Bottom 4 in the Eastern Conference
1 of 10
Indiana Pacers
Everything hinges upon Victor Oladipo continuing his otherworldly performance, though the likely Most Improved Player will have to do so while shouldering even more responsibilities—something he's never been tasked with doing this deep in a season. But if he catches fire and averages 30 points per game, the Indiana Pacers have the depth of talent necessary to make a deep run.
Don't overlook the star power of Myles Turner, either.
Though the young big man has been largely anonymous in 2017-18, he's averaging 13.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks during his last 15 appearances while shooting 48.1 percent from the field, 38.9 percent from downtown and 82.0 percent at the stripe. If he makes "the leap" when games count most, Indiana will suddenly start looking like a top-10 outfit on offense and defense alike. It's already sitting at Nos. 9 and 13, respectively.
Miami Heat
Everything is clicking for the Miami Heat.
Since the beginning of March, they're scoring 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which leaves them trailing the marks earned by only eight fellow organizations. They're not quite as good defensively, but their 12th-place finish still leaves them on the cusp of a top-five net rating. Goran Dragic is retroactively justifying his All-Star inclusion. Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow have ascended. Wayne Ellington keeps knocking down triples, while Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder and Bam Adebayo have all filled their various roles in positive fashion.
But it's the one big name that hasn't yet been listed upon whose massive shoulders the championship argument rests. Dating back to March 1, Hassan Whiteside hasn't generated much of a positive impact for the Heat, who are 15.9 points per 100 possessions better when he's riding the pine. Should he refocus his defensive efforts and mesh seamlessly with his teammates already in strong form, no one will desire a matchup with Miami.
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the obvious answer. He gives the Milwaukee Bucks an advantage precious few franchises boast: a top-five player who can positively affect a game on both ends of the floor. Should he exhibit his lockdown skills against the opposition's premier wing and put up 30 points and five assists per game in efficient fashion, other teams truly will fear the deer.
But the championship argument hinges on more than just Antetokounmpo, since the Bucks are figuring out how to best utilize Eric Bledsoe's quick-twitch talents while working in a healthy Jabari Parker. The team as a whole has still been largely disappointing in both the Jason Kidd and post-Kidd (adolescent?) eras, but that will be rendered largely irrelevant if it capitalizes on the postseason's shrinking rotations.
Antetokounmpo, Bledsoe and Parker have shared the court for just 101 minutes this season, per PBPStats.com. However, the triumvirate has earned a staggering 10.3 net rating together.
Washington Wizards
When John Wall went under the knife for an arthroscopic knee procedure after a dropped game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Jan. 25, the Washington Wizards were supposed to be in trouble. But from then until the starting point guard's return at the end of March, Tomas Satoransky averaged 10.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks while shooting 53.5 percent from the field, 52.8 percent from downtown and 90.0 percent at the free-throw line.
Washington earned the league's No. 12 net rating during that stretch, and it outscored opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with the breakout floor general registering minutes. All of a sudden, it developed a high-quality backup plan and still gets to utilize its All-Star during the playoffs.
Wall hasn't quite been himself this season, but his time away from the team could pay off past Game 82. The Wizards—a squad for which depth has long been an issue—now know how to generate offense without him, and his regaining full health would unlock even more two-way upside. The deadly quintet of Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr., Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat isn't going anywhere.
Bottom 4 in the Western Conference
2 of 10
Minnesota Timberwolves
Everything hinges on Jimmy Butler's return, which is good news when he's seemingly gearing up for a comeback. As Sam Amick of the USA Today tweeted on April 2, "Jimmy Butler took part in five-on-five action today for the first time since his Feb. 23 meniscus injury, I'm told, and it went well. The T-Wolves star remains on track for a return before the playoffs, but his return date remains unclear."
Had Butler remained healthy, the Minnesota Timberwolves would likely still be in one of the Western Conference's featured spots, ready to play at home for their postseason opener. After all, the ex-Chicago Bull had made an easy transition to a new squad, one buoyed by pre-existing chemistry with head coach Tom Thibodeau. He was a legitimate two-way star, capable of carrying the defense and exploding for 30 points on any given night.
Karl-Anthony Towns is a superlative talent at center. Andrew Wiggins can score points in bunches. Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, Nemanja Bjelica, Tyus Jones and others have filled their roles nicely. But this remains Butler's team, and the Timberwolves' team-high 7.8 net rating with him on the floor is indicative of a squad with legitimate championship aspirations...so long as he gets bak to his old form.
New Orleans Pelicans
With DeMarcus Cousins shelved following an Achilles rupture, Anthony Davis is the obvious star for the New Orleans Pelicans. And he's lived up to that celestial status in recent weeks, throwing his name into the MVP conversation by averaging 29.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 steals and 3.5 blocks since the All-Star break. Better still, he's doing so while shooting 52.3 percent from the field and 87.9 percent at the strike, becoming an offensive juggernaut who just so happens to simultaneously feature as a Defensive Player of the Year threat.
But Davis isn't alone by the bayou. As Solomon Hill recently said, per Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Advocate, "Jrue Holiday should be first-team All-Defense, without a doubt. Just watch what that guy does every game and tell me he doesn't deserve it. You can't."
Holiday does have a significant case for that accolade, and he's also putting up an efficient 20.4 points and 7.2 dimes per game since the All-Star break. He's developed into the second star Davis needs, giving New Orleans a one-two punch capable of matching any alpha-beta combination the NBA can throw in the Pelicans' general direction.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Do you really want to doubt Russell Westbrook?
If the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff picture has one player with takeover ability who can simply will his team to a series of victories—really, multiple series, if you catch my drift—it's the dynamic point guard who remains a triple-double matchine. All it takes is the jumper heating up and rendering the pull-ups in transition as assets rather than liabilities, and defenses will be at a loss for how to slow him down in any situation.
Of course, the Thunder are more than a one-man team. Carmelo Anthony, despite his season-long struggles, has plenty of experience getting buckets in key spots. Paul George remains an unabashed superstar. Steven Adams is a defensive stalwart who understands his job description on the offensive end. Those men alone make OKC dangerous, and a red-hot Westbrook pushes it over the top.
Utah Jazz
If defense wins championships, then the Utah Jazz are the one squad no one wants to face. Bolstered by a return from Rudy Gobert, who has picked up where he left off as an All-NBA threat in 2016-17, the Salt Lake City residents have been unrepentantly suffocating since the big man again graced the lineup on Jan. 19. In fact, here are the top five defensive ratings dating back to that mid-January loss to the New York Knicks:
- Utah Jazz, 97.6
- Philadelphia 76ers, 100.8
- Houston Rockets, 103.1
- San Antonio Spurs, 103.2
- Indiana Pacers, 103.4
The Jazz are simply in a league of their own, and they also have a solid supply of offensive firepower. While Donovan Mitchell refuses to run into the rookie wall, Ricky Rubio is knocking down shots, Joe Ingles is continuing to serve as one of the league's most underrated presences, and Dante Exum is starting to strut his stuff.
These Jazz might have to play the opening round on the road, but they're true threats.
East No. 4: Philadelphia 76ers
3 of 10
The Philadelphia 76ers, assuming Joel Embiid is able to bounce back from his orbital fracture and participate in postseason action, have arrived. And fortunately for these up-and-coming contenders in the Eastern Conference, it appears the big man is tracking toward a two-week recovery, per ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Let's shelve any further injury concerns, considering this absence stems from a fluke collision with teammate Markelle Fultz. For the sake of the argument, Embiid is back in action for the postseason, ready to team up with Ben Simmons and Dario Saric so they can continue wreaking havoc.
And wreak havoc they have.
On the season as a whole, Philadelphia has outscored opponents by 4.6 points per 100 possessions, giving it the league's No. 4 net rating, behind only the Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. Since the start of March, that number has elevated to a whopping 12.6 that leaves the young Sixers trailing just the Utah Jazz. They can increasingly win with both offense and defense, making the most of a wide-ranging set of talents all making the proverbial leap.
If you focus on stopping Embiid inside, you open yourself up to Simmons' probing assaults and the long-range marksmanship of Saric (a hidden Most Improved Player candidate), JJ Redick and Robert Covington. Focusing on corralling the shooters just opens the lane for Simmons and Embiid. And that only matters if you figure out how to score against an athletic, switch-happy defense that can rotate anyone onto anyone.
Since March began, Philadelphia ranks No. 4 in offensive rating and No. 2 in defensive rating while compiling a 14-3 record. And it's only trending further toward the top of the pack as Fultz gets back in game shape and starts filling in the one weakness that has consistently plagued this organization: shot-creation.
Seemingly more and more every day, these Sixers appear built for the playoffs.
West No. 4: San Antonio Spurs
4 of 10
At this point, Kawhi Leonard has basically embarked upon a lost season, struggling with injuries to the point that he's suited up in just nine games. The San Antonio Spurs have been forced to operate without their clear-cut best player, who went into the 2017-18 campaign widely expected to serve as an MVP front-runner.
If that wasn't bad enough, the Spurs have gone through a dry spell that has lowered their season-long offensive rating to a meager 105.5 points per 100 possessions, leaving them at No. 18 throughout the NBA. LaMarcus Aldridge is the only consistent source of points, and the rest of the roster rarely displays the typical franchise feel of ball-sharing excellence and offensive production.
"I've had worse."
Doubt started to creep into the equation. Maybe the playoff streak would finally end. The players have even been affected, showing previously unseen levels of defensive apathy as they miss rotations and exhibit poor communication when switching. During February, the Spurs had a bottom-half defense.
"Just a flesh wound."
The Spurs have become the infamous Black Knight...but with one major difference: Unlike the poor soldier doomed to be dismembered and left on the road as the traveling comrades move along with their journey, they're somehow still winning. They're tracking toward not only another postseason appearance but also, potentially, home-court advantage in the first round.
Ruling them out remains a perilous undertaking, especially with the enduring possibility—however slim it may be at this point—that a top-five player is waiting to come back and boost the squad on both ends of the floor. Leonard's return is the championship argument, though even that chance would have become irrelevant without the inspired coaching of Gregg Popovich and the everlasting ability of this organization to make the whole far greater than the sum of its parts.
East No. 3: Cleveland Cavaliers
5 of 10
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been engaged in a roller-coaster ride of a season, shuffling pieces at the trade deadline and dealing with countless injuries to the supporting cast. So imagine, if you will, that everyone actually gets healthy for the playoffs.
Rather than sticking with the best options they can find on the scrap heap, Cleveland finally gets to use the lineup of its dreams. George Hill starts at point guard, joined by JR Smith, LeBron James, Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love while Rodney Hood, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, Jordan Clarkson and Tristan Thompson make noise off the bench. That opening quintet has logged exactly zero minutes together thus far, opening the door for tantalizing possibilities when all members are finally ready to go.
But who are we kidding?
Cleveland's championship argument is bolstered by the potential efficacy of heretofore unseen lineups. It doesn't hinge upon them. Not when the best player in the world is still on the roster, ready to continue his everlasting playoff tear.
Sit down. Take a drink of water. Mentally steel yourselves for a stat I'm about to reveal that no one in the world has ever dug up.
James has advanced to the NBA Finals during each of the last seven seasons, giving him a stretch of nearly unsurpassed postseason excellence. Whether he's suited up for the Miami Heat or the Cavaliers, he's turned the league's weaker half into his own personal plaything, terrifying the opposition as he barrels through one matchup after another.
And if that streak gets extended to eight campaigns—tougher and tougher to bet against as Cleveland rounds into form—picking against a one-man wave of destruction becomes a difficult task.
West No. 3: Portland Trail Blazers
6 of 10
Can we start calling Damian Lillard a top-10 player yet?
The offensive juggernaut of a point guard has been phenomenal all season, but he's leaving a path of demolition in his wake since the All-Star break. Dating back to that mid-February interruption, Lillard is averaging 28.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks while shooting 42.1 percent from the field, 34.5 percent from downtown and 90.6 percent from the charity stripe. Though the percentages are depressed by the difficulty of the shots he's asked to take in the flow of the Portland Trail Blazers offense, don't make the mistake of thinking he's a one-man show.
Rip City has become a multi-faceted attack. McCollum (21.5 points per game), Jusuf Nurkic (15.0) and Maurice Harkless (10.3, but out for the next few weeks after knee surgery, per ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski) have joined the dynamic 1-guard in double figures since the midseason festivities, and Al-Farouq Aminu (9.8) isn't far off. Points can come from all over the floor with a dangerous blend of perimeter marksmanship, mid-range pull-ups and interior finishes.
Oh, and Portland is better on defense than offense.
On the season as a whole, the Blazers rank No. 14 in offensive rating, but their 104.3 defensive rating nestles within the league's top 10 marks. And since the break, those scores have shifted to Nos. 8 and 3, respectively. Only the Houston Rockets and Philadelphia 76ers have also posted top-eight showings in each category during the same time frame.
As Dave Deckard noted for Blazer's Edge, people are starting to take notice:
"On March 1st, one month ago, the Blazers were listed at 350/1 to win the title. They’re now at 40/1. Granted, credible participants have narrowed and odds depend on public perception of betting lines, but that still represents a jump from the 17th position among 20 potential teams to the 7th, plus the greatest increase in actual odds on the chart."
Portland might just continue making strides on the back of not only the reigning Player of the Week (assuming his ankle injury isn't serious) but also a deep rotation filled with useful pieces and two-way effectiveness.
East No. 2: Boston Celtics
7 of 10
We know the Boston Celtics can play fantastic defense when at full strength, though it's tough to believe they'll get all the way to 100 percent with Daniel Theis out for the year, Gordon Hayward still recovering from his opening-day injury and Marcus Smart and Kyrie Irving both on the mend. But if we assume the guards are at least in working order for the playoffs, we shouldn't have much doubt that head coach Brad Stevens can milk point-preventing production out of his troops.
Offense has been the bigger question mark, with the C's often unable to score efficently and consistently when Irving isn't on the floor. Except those concerns might be a bit overblown.
On the season, Boston is scoring just 101.8 points per 100 possessions when Irving is riding the pine, which would place No. 27 in the season-long standings. But the team has discovered its form in recent outings, and the offensive rating has lifted to a still subpar 104.8 since the Duke product sat out with knee soreness on March 5.
The Celtics aren't going to light up the scoreboard during any given playoff series, but they've demonstrated enough scoring ability to frighten opponents already having trouble generating points of their own. And that's while their premier source of production has been out of the lineup, healing up so he can attack at full strength during the second season.
Boston won't win games in pretty fashion. You won't see flawless displays of offense, save the takeover possessions in which Irving seems bound and determined to convince the world he's the best ball-handler in the lengthy history of this sport. But it has the defensive prowess, the growing offensive confidence, the coaching acumen and the unrelenting depth necessary to keep doing what it's done all year.
What's that, you ask? In a nutshell, defy expectations and overachieve.
West No. 2: Golden State Warriors
8 of 10
The Golden State Warriors have to get healthy.
No matter how much depth this team might boast, it can't afford to lose 80 percent of the rotation like it's seemed to in recent weeks. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson—at the very least—need to be in working order for the defending champions to overcome the Houston Rockets, escape the Western Conference gauntlet and emerge victoriously against an Eastern foe.
And as ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton relayed, the team already shouldn't expect to have a certain two-time MVP during the opening round:
"Although Curry is scheduled to be reevaluated at the start of the playoffs, Warriors coach Steve Kerr has already said Curry won't play in the team's first-round series. That decision should have been expected anyway given the timetable for Grade 2 sprains like the one Curry suffered, which typically sideline players about six weeks."
But if we assume the Dubs survive their first-round clash and get healthy, then things get interesting. After all, the West's No. 2 seed has the talent of a historically excellent squad when everyone is fully functioning. And that's the crux of this particular argument, since any case featuring this All-Star quartet basically writes itself.
Curry, Thompson, Durant and Green have spent 758 minutes on the hardwood together in 2017-18, and they've topped their adversaries by a staggering 13.3 points per 100 possessions. Among the 78 four-man groupings that have registered at least 500 minutes, only nine have been more effective: five concatenations belonging to the Philadelphia 76ers, three from the Oklahoma City Thunder and one set of Utah Jazz representatives.
Fear not. Golden State doesn't have to be No. 1 when it also boasts one of the NBA's most dangerous benches and has been playing much of the regular season in a sleepwalking state. That ability to flip the switch should still be present.
East No. 1: Toronto Raptors
9 of 10
If you're still thinking of these Toronto Raptors as last year's dinosaurs, do yourself a favor and catch up to 2018. This is by no means just another iteration of the franchise that consistently produces playoff disappointments; instead, this version dramatically altered its scheme to ensure the prevention of another collapse.
Yes, the pieces are largely the same. Yes, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, both of whom have flopped out of prior playoffs with poor shooting percentages, are still leading the charge. Yes, head coach Dwane Casey remains on the sidelines.
But these Raptors are...different.
Rather than letting the All-Star guards commandeer possessions, they've gone out of their way to engage in an egalitarian offensive style. Everyone is willing to find the open man, passing up good shots for great ones en route to the league's No. 3 offensive rating. Whereas the 2016-17 Raptors scored 0.98 points per possession in isolation (No. 2 in the league) and used those one-on-one plays for 8.5 percent of their possessions (No. 6), this version is at 1.01 (No. 3) and 5.7 (No. 22), respectively.
They were efficient in that play type last year, but it's a naturally inefficient style of offense. The decline in frequency is an unmitigated positive.
Plus, the Toronto bench is unstoppable.
Led by Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam, Delon Wright and CJ Miles, the second unit has thrived on both ends of the floor to produce a 9.1 net rating that rather easily outpaces the Golden State Warriors (7.3) and Houston Rockets (7.4) for the best mark in the league. In fact, among the 46 quintets to log at least 200 minutes this year, just three have been more effective than Toronto's bench mob comprised of the aforementioned players, which has destroyed opponents to the tune of a 20.2 net rating.
And lest you worry about the declining importance of benches in postseason play, allow me to present two quick counterarguments.
First, Toronto's unit is so reliable that is should negate that concern, becoming the rare unit upon which Casey can continue to count when games matter most, just as he's done in fourth quarters throughout the season. Second, the Canadian starters (6.7) trail only the Philadelphia 76ers (8.3), Rockets (9.7) and Warriors (10.2) in net rating.
West No. 1: Houston Rockets
10 of 10
The Houston Rockets have been the best team in basketball this season.
They have the NBA's premier record and narrowly trail the Golden State Warriors in net rating. Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, which is based solely on margin of victory and strength of schedule, gives them the leading mark with room to spare. They're also the easy front-runners in FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings and boast the odds-on favorite for MVP in James Harden.
Proving the Rockets are championship threats doesn't hinge upon showing how effective this team has been. When you're the top dog, that's wholly unnecessary, especially for a deep team flaunting the service of Chris Paul, Clint Capela and a veritable horde of useful supporting pieces.
Instead, the argument rests upon a belief that Harden and Paul won't fail to show up in the playoffs. Both have developed a reputation for poor play when games count most, and they'll have to shake that portion of their resumes to hold up the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the first time in their careers.
Harden's postseason decline is easier to justify, if only because of anecdotal evidence. The basketball-watching world hasn't yet forgotten his poor showing during the 2012 NBA Finals, nor has it forgiven him for the inexplicable egg he laid in a Game 6 defeat against the San Antonio Spurs last year, when he seemed to concede and stop exerting effort midway through the proceedings.
But it seems to overlook just how effective he's been otherwise. Only 14 players have more cumulative win shares during the last five postseasons, and that number dwindles by one over the previous three. He hasn't played at an MVP level, but the bearded guard has still been excellent.
The defense of Paul is simpler, since the perceived struggles stem solely from his inability to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Detractors overlook his series-winning bucket against the Spurs and the fact—yes, fact—that his numbers almost universally elevate during the playoffs. During his last four extracurricular ventures, the point guard is averaging 22.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 9.4 assists while turning the ball over just 2.4 times per contest and slashing 48.7/40.9/87.5.
It's just one sentence of a deep dive you should absolutely read if you're still blaming this point guard, but as Chris Herring wrote for FiveThirtyEight after last year's exit, "Whatever is to blame, though, has nothing to do with point guard Chris Paul."
Then again, continue believing Harden and Paul can't get the job done when the stakes are highest. More so than ever, they're ready to prove you wrong.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on April 3.
.jpg?w=600 "Top 10 Stars of NBA Playoffs So Far 📊")
.jpg?w=600 "Breaking News")
