Metrics 101: Who's Really the NBA's Most Improved Player?
What's the magic formula to win Most Improved Player in the NBA?
Are we looking for the man who's received a substantial increase in playing time and operated at a similar level? Should we be seeking out someone who's gone from good to great rather than bad to average or average to good? Is it better to find a player whose underlying metrics are significantly better in a role more suited to his talents?
Truthfully, anything should go. All different kinds of improvement are still valid—an assumption we have to make while trying to decide if award favorite Victor Oladipo is going to be a deserving winner of the MIP trophy.
To objectively determine improvement, we're turning to the formula for Player Score used in previous articles.
For every player in the NBA who's logged even a single minute during both 2016-17 and 2017-18, we pulled scores in four different overarching metrics: NBA Math's total points added (TPA), ESPN.com's real plus/minus wins (RPM Wins), player efficiency rating (PER) and win shares (WS). The first two look at volume/efficiency combinations, while the third focuses on per-possession effectiveness and favors offensive production. The fourth element rewards those whose individual merits lead to more victories. Volume and time on the court matter more than they might in other evaluations.
To standardize between four metrics that operate on drastically different scales, we found the z-scores in each category and summed them to find a player's total score. Those cumulative z-scores are all that matter for these selections, which focus entirely and exclusively on work during the last two go-rounds.
From there, the calculation is easy. Subtract the 2016-17 score from the one earned during the 2017-18 campaign, and you have improvement. The higher the number, the better.
10. Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Boston Celtics: 4.68
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-2.66 (No. 406 among 486 players)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 2.02 (No. 96 among 531 players)
Though Jaylen Brown hasn't made the leap to full-fledged stardom for the Boston Celtics, he appears well on his way. The young wing has become a two-way standout, capable of playing intense, physical defense on one side before knocking down a spot-up three in spite of a heavy contest.
It's that shooting that has allowed for the largest strides.
No one should deny that Brown's defensive versatility has improved substantially, unlocking easier rotations and alignments for head coach Brad Stevens. Without the second-year player's malleable nature on the outside, Al Horford wouldn't look quite so dominant defending the interior—just one of many examples highlighting Brown's point-preventing efficacy.
But that still pales in comparison to his growing offensive game.
As a rookie out of California, he shot 45.4 percent from the field, 34.1 percent from downtown and 68.5 percent from the stripe. His slash line has only swelled to 45.9/38.0/64.6, but that middle number has grown while he takes an additional 2.6 triples per game.
The 21-year-old has become a volume sniper who rarely shows any hesitation when pulling up on the perimeter, and defenses have been forced to respect his shot-happy nature.
Next 10 Up: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyle Anderson, Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, Derrick Favors, Brandon Ingram, Khris Middleton, Dejounte Murray, Josh Richardson, Pascal Siakam
9. Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: 4.71
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.5 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: 2.22 (No. 88)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 22.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.8 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 6.93 (No. 26)
Joel Embiid has improved across the board, even if he was already working with a lofty starting point after his spectacular rookie campaign.
He's traded in blocks for more fundamental defense at the heart of the Philadelphia 76ers' schemes, which has forced opponents to stop probing the painted area when he's patrolling his domain. He's become a more consistent scoring force, though we should note that his three-point accuracy needs to trend back up moving forward. He's more adept on the glass. He even stayed healthy—before suffering an unfortunate orbital fracture in a fluke collision with teammate Markelle Fultz—playing in back-to-backs and nearly tripling his total number of minutes spent on the hardwood.
But the two key areas of growth involved Embiid's two largest weaknesses: fouling and turning the ball over.
During the 2016-17 season, he coughed up the rock 5.4 times per 36 minutes and forced the referees into blowing their whistles 5.1 times during the same average span. Per Cleaning the Glass, he sat in the 41st percentile for foul percentage and the 11th percentile for turnover percentage.
This year, he's up to the 58th and 32nd percentiles, respectively. The per-36-minute numbers, meanwhile, are down to 4.4 and 3.9. That's a set of massive strides in the right direction, though the NBA should be scared that this vastly improved second-year big still has so much room for further refinement.
8. Domantas Sabonis, C, Indiana Pacers: 4.94
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-3.63 (No. 465)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 1.31 (No. 125)
This isn't meant to pick on any specific writer, since a plethora of media members (myself included) gave the Indiana Pacers poor marks for their seemingly inexplicable decision to trade Paul George for "only" Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. But let's isolate what ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton penned about the latter prospect sent back in exchange for the established stud:
"Sabonis was ineffective as a rookie. In fact, his 3.3 wins worse than replacement level by my WARP metric were the league's third-lowest total, ahead of only fellow rookies Brandon Ingram and Isaiah Whitehead.
"It's possible Sabonis was miscast in a Thunder starting lineup short on 3-point shooting. Sabonis operated as something of a stretch-4 and rarely ventured inside, attempting just two free throws in the season's first 26 games (all starts). After a strong month of November, Sabonis shot just 29-of-110 (26.3 percent) from beyond the arc the remainder of the season.
"Playing alongside stretch-5 Myles Turner may afford Sabonis more ability to play down low, where he was effective at Gonzaga. But Sabonis is heavily reliant on his left hand, which caused problems when defenders read the scouting report. He shot just 38.5 percent on post-up plays, per Synergy Sports tracking, and wasn't particularly effective in the pick-and-roll. Even the most optimistic assessment must concede Sabonis isn't as valuable as he looked when he was drafted No. 11 overall a year ago."
Then, everything changed.
Sabonis drew 2.2 more free-throw attempts per game despite receiving only a slight uptick in minutes. He hit 52.8 percent of his two-pointers after connecting on just 43.8 percent as a rookie. He stopped relying on triples and played to his strengths. He improved from 0.65 points per post-up possession (10.5 percentile) to 0.87 (51.7 percentile).
The aforementioned "everything" really shouldn't be viewed as hyperbole. Not for a 21-year-old big man who now looks far more like a rotation stalwart than a draft-day bust whose skill set couldn't translate to the sport's highest level.
7. Tomas Satoransky, PG, Washington Wizards: 4.98
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 2.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-2.34 (No. 368)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 7.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 2.64 (No. 83)
If the Washington Wizards had lost John Wall to a long-term injury during the 2016-17 campaign, they would've been doomed. Tomas Satoransky, then a 25-year-old rookie, was in no way ready to take the reins and help his squad continue to produce on the offensive end. His 6'7" size allowed him to hold his own defensively, but the shooting stroke and passing chops just weren't there.
Fast-forward to the present, and this sophomore floor general has proved he's ready to handle that exact scenario.
From the time Wall underwent an arthroscopic knee procedure after a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Jan. 25 to his return on the final day of March, Satoransky averaged 10.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks while shooting 53.5 percent from the field, 52.8 percent from downtown and 90.0 percent at the stripe. His whole game developed into a cohesive package, allowing him to torment defenses on the interior with his size while also keeping adversaries honest with a more consistent shooting stroke.
In fact, the Wizards have been outscored by 0.2 points per 100 possessions with the oversized 1-guard on the bench, but that net rating soars to 3.0 when he plays. He's more than just a backup, and that simply wasn't true last year.
6. Fred VanVleet, PG, Toronto Raptors: 5.4
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 2.9 points, 1.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-2.04 (No. 336)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 3.36 (No. 65)
After signing with the Toronto Raptors as an undrafted free agent for the 2016-17 season, rookie point guard Fred VanVleet played just nine minutes in "clutch" situations—defined by NBA.com as action occurring within the last five minutes of a game featuring a margin no greater than five points. Only Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam saw less relevant run for the franchise.
This year, the narrative has flipped 180 degrees.
"It's very difficult [to sit him]," head coach Dwane Casey said about the sophomore point guard after he played a big part in a come-from-behind December win over the Memphis Grizzlies (h/t William Lou). "His toughness, his mental toughness, his ability to shoot the ball, diving on the floor, his defense, he brings so much to the table. He doesn't get rattled, he is a mature young man."
VanVleet has played 93 "clutch" minutes this year—a total that leaves him trailing only DeMar DeRozan (150), Kyle Lowry (129) and Serge Ibaka (112) throughout the entire Canadian roster. Casey consistently counts on him to knock down big jumpers, continue asserting himself defensively and avoid making mistakes.
As he should.
After all, VanVleet has improved throughout all 48 minutes. It's just that those late-game scenarios serve as the perfect manifestation of the increased trust he's earned with his all-around play.
5. Tyreke Evans, SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies: 5.56
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-0.8 (No. 234)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 4.76 (No. 39)
Tyreke Evans' stock had been stuck in a downward spiral since he won Rookie of the Year back in 2009-10, and last season's efforts proved no exception. He struggled with his shot immensely while wearing a New Orleans Pelicans uniform, then a midseason trade sent him to the Sacramento Kings, where he'd discover a three-point stroke but fail to carve out a sizable role in his 14 appearances.
The swingman could muster only a one-year deal worth $3.3 million to join the Memphis Grizzlies this past offseason, but that now looks like one of the league's biggest bargains—injuries and personal issues limiting him to just 52 games notwithstanding.
Evans has proved his late-season growth from beyond the arc was no fluke, connecting on 39.9 percent of his deep attempts while lofting 5.5 treys per outing (both career highs). And with defenders now forced to respect his perimeter game, he's used his size and physicality advantageously with relentless assaults on the basket, where he can either finish at the rim or use a creative arsenal of close-range strategies.
He's become an offensive wrecking ball, especially when his scoring is paired with his superlative passing vision and knack for keeping his turnovers in check.
During the 2016-17 campaign, Evans finished with a score of minus-11.14 in NBA Math's offensive points added. This time around, he's at 142.67, which is the No. 20 mark throughout the league and rather easily the top mark on the Memphis roster. In fact, MarShon Brooks (12.55), Mike Conley (8.83) and Chandler Parsons (4.09), all of whom have received limited run for various reasons, have the squad's only other positive scores.
4. Terry Rozier, PG, Boston Celtics: 5.73
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-1.63 (No. 296)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 4.1 (No. 53)
Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge can take a deep breath and relax.
For a while now, it's seemed like the man in charge viewed Terry Rozier as some sort of untouchable piece. He wasn't going to be moved in a deal for Jimmy Butler, Paul George or anyone else, given his monumental upside at such an important position. And now, he's justifying that faith with substantial improvement and useful production.
"His energy, how hard he plays on both ends. All I do is watch games, and I think his energy is contagious," Chris Paul told ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg about Rozier's game in March. "While he's not the guy for them, he's important to everything they do."
The young point guard still isn't perfect. He has to get better at finishing in the restricted area and show more willingness to involve his teammates when running the show as a primary floor general. But that doesn't negate the progress he's already made.
As a rookie in 2015-16, Rozier scored 8.3 points per 36 minutes with a 32.6 true shooting percentage. Those numbers elevated to 11.7 and 44.6 last year. This season, he's putting up 16.1 points per 36 minutes with a 52.9 true shooting percentage, and he's made those enhancements to his scoring game while also growing as a more disciplined defender.
He's come a long way since Boston made him the No. 16 pick of the 2015 NBA draft, and he's now a two-way asset for one of the Eastern Conference's legitimate contenders.
3. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons: 5.74
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 13.6 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.1 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: 3.7 (No. 57)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 15.0 points, 16.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.7 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 9.44 (No. 13)
Andre Drummond is a perfect example of a standout going from good to great with across-the-board growth, but allow us to focus on just two parts of his widespread improvement. We can save the post-up touch, rebounding excellence (who would have thought more boards were even possible?) and defensive discipline for another time.
Throughout Drummond's professional career, he was a significant liability at the free-throw stripe, to the point that his struggles curtailed his around-the-basket aggression and made it more difficult to justify playing him in late-game situations. But after topping out at 41.8 percent as a sophomore and finishing 2016-17 at a 38.6 percent clip, the big man finally figured it out.
Shooting 61.8 percent from the line is by no means a noteworthy accomplishment for most players, but Drummond hasn't been "most players" in this vulnerable spot. That's a massive gain, and it frees him up to attack the basket feverishly, making more of the athletic interior plays for which he's known. It's no coincidence he's also taking 0.7 more freebies per game than last year.
And yet, Drummond's improvement as a passer might be even more notable.
All of a sudden, head coach Stan Van Gundy is allowing him to handle the ball at the top of the key and create for his teammates—something that admittedly hasn't happened quite as frequently since Blake Griffin came aboard via a midseason trade. Drummond is squeezing the rock into tight spaces and leading the charge on the occasional transition opportunity. Not only has he nearly tripled his previous best (1.1 in 2016-17) by averaging three dimes per contest, but all 18 of his career performances with at least five assists have come during the current campaign.
2. Dario Saric, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers: 5.92
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: minus-1.74 (No. 310)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 4.18 (No. 51)
Dario Saric gets credit for extensive development, given his usefulness as a secondary distributor and improved defensive chops. He's fit in with the Philadelphia 76ers' switch-heavy schemes in seamless fashion, negating any individual woes he might experience by playing solid team defense.
But all that pales in comparison to his maturity as a scorer.
During his rookie season, the Croatian forward averaged 17.6 points per 36 minutes while shooting 41.1 percent from the field, 31.1 percent from downtown and 78.2 percent at the stripe. He fired away early and often, but his 50.8 true shooting percentage was so far below the league average that his volume-scoring efforts were detrimental to the Philadelphia cause.
Not anymore.
Saric was one of 74 qualified players to post at least 17 points per 36 minutes with a true shooting percentage north of 50 as a rookie, though he ranked dead last among that group in win shares. During his sophomore campaign, he's been one of just 26 qualified contributors to hit the 17 and 58 benchmarks—the product of knocking down 45.5 percent of his field-goal attempts, 39.9 percent of his deep hoists and 86.8 percent of his freebies. Among that class, only 14 men have earned more win shares.
The 23-year-old doesn't seem to be getting much love as a Most Improved Player candidate, and that's largely because his per-game numbers have stagnated. But don't let that dissuade you from thinking he's improved, because the underlying metrics have all skyrocketed.
1. Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana Pacers: 8.02
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2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks
2016-17 Player Score: 1.24 (No. 121)
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 23.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.7 blocks
2017-18 Player Score: 9.26 (No. 15)
"My offensive skills came late. In order for me to play, I had to defend at a high level. I want to be a guy who's great on both ends. It's not easy, obviously, but I'm built for it," Victor Oladipo recently revealed about his skill set, per IndyStar.com's Clifton Brown.
The breakout shooting guard was a solid contributor during his brief tenure with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he was just a shadow of the bona fide star he'd become following a trade to the Indiana Pacers. General manager Kevin Pritchard, much to the chagrin of those who doubted his decision-making this summer, was correct to make him the returning centerpiece of the Paul George transaction.
Oladipo still defends "at a high level," and that hasn't prevented him from becoming one of the Association's deadliest offensive threats, capable of producing points as an off-ball slasher while also creating his own looks with aplomb. The massive per-game increases aren't the product of prolonged playing time, so much as legitimate strides that have left this former Hoosier as the unquestioned leader of the Indiana offense.
Players simply aren't supposed to make this type of scoring and distribution ascension while upping every element of their slash line. They're certainly not supposed to do that and make the transition from average defender to suffocating ace taking on tough nightly wing assignments.
But here we are, and Oladipo's ability to check all those boxes facilitates his running away with the No. 1 spot to such an extent that the gap between his score and that of No. 2 Dario Saric (2.09) is larger than the chasm between Saric and No. 25 Trey Burke (1.99).
If he's a lock for Most Improved Player, that's only because he should be.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on April 3.
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