Predicting NBA Stat Leaders for Major Categories in 2017-18
Feel that? You know, that tingly twinge? It's the sensation of knowing the NBA's opening night is less than a lifetime away.
That means we better predict this season's individual stat kings before our dog-days cushion (mercifully) expires.
Prepare yourself for some changes. Familiar faces are peppered throughout these major categories, but the amount of offseason movement has paved the way for new leaders in many areas.
Projecting the scoring champion is particularly dicey. Last season's top-four point-pilers are all adjusting to new (or newish) high-profile partners.
Will reigning champion Russell Westbrook throw up enough shots beside Paul George to defend his title? How about runner-up James Harden, now that he calls Chris Paul a teammate? Which fresh(er) candidate will land himself in the discussion?
See? Numbers can be fun! So let's dive in with the enthusiasm of a third-grader entering a football field-sized ball pit.
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Field-Goal Percentage
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Leader: Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
Clint Capela had an apt reaction to the Rockets' trade for Paul.
"More lobs."
Ain't this the truth.
Capela's 64.3 percent clip placed fifth in the league last season, with nearly 79 percent of his attempts coming inside three feet of the hoop. Both numbers should spike this year. The Rockets will continue leveraging three-point volume into open lanes, and Harden's gravitational pull isn't going anywhere.
Adding Paul to that tactical smoothie is unfair. He remains among the best pick-and-roll initiators in the game, and his own deadeye efficiency from downtown will help keep Capela in the clear during those (presumably) long stretches when Houston runs out dueling ball-handlers.
It'll be a legitimate shock if the 23-year-old skyscraper and rim-runner shoots under 68 percent while feasting on an inordinate, DeAndre Jordan-esque number of point-blank opportunities.
Runner-Up: DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Jordan won't be thrilled with this pick. He's owned the NBA's highest field-goal percentage in every season since 2012-13. That's some run. His five-year reign just isn't sustainable without Paul.
Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari and Milos Teodosic should all help ensure he hovers around that 65 percent mark. And Jordan's accuracy from the floor held steady without Paul in the game last year. But it feels weird even selecting him for the runner-up honor when the primary source of his looks and lobs for the past half-decade is repping another city.
Jordan, truthfully, is fortunate to get the second-place nod over someone like JaVale McGee. The Clippers have a bundle of playmakers and floor-spacers, but the learning curve that accompanies so many new additions threatens to adversely impact anyone who depends on those around them for easy opportunities at the basket.
Three-Pointers Made
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Leader: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2011-12.
That's the last time Stephen Curry didn't pace the NBA in three-point makes. And if ankle injuries never derailed his lockout campaign, we may be talking about a six-year span of untouchable marksmanship.
Don't worry about slowing down now. Playing beside Kevin Durant didn't force him to vacate the throne in 2016-17, and no one has come remotely close to sniffing his long-range tallies during this half-decade stretch.
Just look at the difference in three-ball totals between him and the second-place finisher:
2016-17: 56 (Klay Thompson)
2015-16: 126 (Thompson)
2014-15: 47 (Thompson)
2013-14: 38 (Thompson)
2012-13: 59 (Ryan Anderson)
Picking against Curry isn't merely bold. It's objectively futile.
Runner-Up: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
I tried to find an upset. Really, I did. But Thompson has ranked second in total three-pointers for each of the past four years and finished just two makes behind the second-place Anderson in 2012-13.
Harden was the only player who came within relative proximity of his runner-up podium last year. He drilled 262 triples to Thompson's 268—by far and away a career-best mark that seems like it'll dip, even if slightly, while working next to Paul.
Eric Gordon is an interesting option after ending up fourth in total three-pointers (246). Lou Williams won't be eating into his shot attempts, and he may never have to dribble again with Harden and Paul in the same rotation.
Damian Lillard deserves a shout-out as well. His outside volume dropped from 2015-16 and 2016-17, and the Portland Trail Blazers will combat strained spacing after dealing Allen Crabbe to the Brooklyn Nets. But Crabbe's departure is an incentive for him to fire away with greater frequency, and he buried more contested triplets last year than anyone other than Kemba Walker.
Thompson remains the pick anyway. Maybe a second year playing within an offense kowtowing to Curry and Durant wrecks his usage. But it probably won't. His three-point volume has climbed every year since his rookie crusade, and almost two-thirds of his looks last season came without having to dribble.
Why pretend like it's a good idea to side with anyone else?
Blocks Per Game
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Leader: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Rudy Gobert is due for a repeat as the NBA's blocks-per-game leader.
No one in the NBA contested nearly as many shots at the rim as last year's Defensive Player of the Year runner-up. Myles Turner came closest, and he still challenged 55 fewer looks than Gobzilla.
Utah's reliance on Gobert won't suddenly wane. Gordon Hayward is gone. George Hill, too. Rookie Tony Bradley and Ekpe Udoh are the primary backup center options, with a little bit of Derrick Favors sprinkled in for good measure. The Jazz will lean on Gobert's defense more than ever.
Ball-handlers will continue to be funneled toward the paint off the dribble, and Gobert, out of necessity, should log 35 or more minutes per game. He'll get the chance to pester extra shots around the iron.
So long as the Jazz don't try to expand his role on offense amid a dearth of shot-creators, the 25-year-old Fort Knox on wheels should have the gas to match or exceed his 2.6 swats per contest.
Runner-Up: Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
Another difficult second-fiddle selection.
Anthony Davis looms in this conversation forever and ever and ever, but he'll split rim-protecting duties with DeMarcus Cousins and exert extra energy jumping perimeter passing lanes with a capable brick wall behind him. Giannis Antetokounmpo popped onto the radar last year, but a little more of John Henson and Thon Maker, coupled with the addition of rookie D.J. Wilson, caps his ceiling at two rejections per game.
Serge Ibaka would be a sneaky-good gamble...if the Toronto Raptors had the personnel to guarantee him enough minutes at center. Rolling with Turner or Kristaps Porzingis would be fine if the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, respectively, weren't drowning in frontcourt names.
Hassan Whiteside faces some of the same roadblocks. He could lose time to lineups that feature James Johnson or Kelly Olynyk at the 5, and opposing teams know not to journey into the paint willy nilly when he's jumping center.
Burgeoning restraint also factors in. Whiteside isn't shamelessly chasing blocks. His average dropped from 3.7 in 2015-16 to 2.1 in 2016-17, despite a substantive uptick in minutes.
Still, the 7-footer is a shot-swatter at heart. He finished fourth in rejections last season, and the path to second place isn't much of a leap.
Steals Per Game
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Leader: Chris Paul, Houston Rockets
Two things tilt the scales in Paul's favor.
First up: He's Chris Paul. He has six steals-per-game awards to his name—seven if you include his rounded co-opt with Draymond Green and John Wall from 2016-17. More importantly/ridiculously/unfairly: He's finished outside the top three in steals per game just twice since entering the league. Seriously, twice. In 12 seasons.
Feast on his ranks by year (with manually calculated tiebreaks):
2005-06: third; 2006-07: 11th; 2007-08: first; 2008-09: first; 2009-10: third (appeared in 45 games); 2010-11: first; 2011-12: first; 2012-13: first; 2013-14: first; 2014-15: fifth; 2015-16: third; 2016-17: third.
Paul could slow down entering his age-32 march, but he won't. That's the second point: His default setting is maniacal suffocation. Convincing him to conserve energy is impossible. It's also not a problem for the Rockets. His offensive load will lighten next to Harden, freeing up the career swiper to be equally, if not more, aggressive on the less glamorous side.
Runner-Up: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Burn through enough decimal places, and Green registers as last year's steals leader, just barely outstripping Wall.
Climbing atop that pedestal did take a personally unprecedented effort. His previous high was 1.6 steals per game, and he cleared two pickpockets while spending fewer minutes on the court—a caveat that should bother absolutely no one.
Green has never been much of a scorer and now takes a backseat to Curry, Durant and Thompson. He focuses more on playmaking and setting on- and off-ball screens. He doesn't need to chew through his energy reserves, which allows him to go pleasantly bonkers on the defensive end.
Take his cross-position chops and place them on a squad that switches as much as the Warriors, and this past season's number isn't merely sustainable. It's the new standard for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
Rebounds Per Game
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Leader: Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Whiteside seized the rebounding trophy from Andre Drummond last year, which probably says more about the latter's disappointing performance.
Drummond posted the highest per-minute board marks of his career but couldn't stay on the floor enough to escape his deputy status. The Detroit Pistons' big-man pileup didn't help his case. Head coach Stan Van Gundy turned to Aron Baynes and Jon Leuer for minutes at the 5—an experiment dictated by personnel but also by how much worse the team fared on defense with Drummond in the lineup.
Things won't get any easier for the 24-year-old this season. Even with Baynes gone, he'll need to earn the right to clear 30 minutes per game. After all, Boban Marjanovic is lurking.
"We've got to do some defensive things to help him, and we've got to get him the ball even more offensively," Van Gundy said of Marjanovic, who made just 35 appearances, per the Detroit Free Press' Vince Ellis. "But he was our third center, and so we didn't build enough around him. But we certainly will going forward."
Potentially damning sentiments? Maybe. That doesn't make this pick a shot in the dark. Drummond hoards rebounds, and any step forward, however minor, should result in more playing time; and more playing time all but guarantees he'll clear 14 boards a night and recapture his glass-crashing title.
Runner-Up: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Penciling in Gobert, Jordan or Whiteside on your own prediction sheet won't engender much resistance. They're all viable options.
Something about Karl-Anthony Towns just feels right. He placed sixth in rebounds per game last year and, entering his third season, should enjoy yet another spike.
It helps that the Timberwolves didn't, well, help him. None of their other bigs are exceptional miss-hunters. Cole Aldrich won't see enough time beside Towns to affect his total, Gorgui Dieng will cede position to him whenever they share the hardwood, and Taj Gibson isn't cramping anyone's rebounding style.
This prediction devolves into an insurmountable risk if the Timberwolves increase their dependence on Towns' outside shooting and compromise his presence on the offensive glass. But his second-chance rebounding rate jumped as a sophomore amid raised three-point volume.
He figures to be a genuine contender for second place no matter how his offensive role progresses.
Assists Per Game
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Leader: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
That Russell Westbrook didn't claim the gold medal in assists per game remains one of last season's biggest surprises. He didn't have to share touches with Durant, and the Thunder made no effort to let Victor Oladipo run him off the ball when the two played together.
But Harden's detonation as Houston's official point guard, Wall's being Wall and Oklahoma City's uninspiring supporting cast all thwarted Westbrook's crack at No. 1.
Teaming up with Paul George could have a similar effect. Or it could boost Westbrook's assist numbers.
Let's go with that.
George isn't Durant. He won't run through as many on-ball possessions. More than one-third of his shot attempts came off the catch in 2016-17, compared to around 26 percent for Durant during the 2015-16 go-round.
Having additional weapons around him—including Patrick Patterson (when healthy)—incentivizes Westbrook to pass even more. His teammates shot better than 52 percent off his deferrals last year, but the Thunder didn't have much catch-and-fire appeal. They ranked 26th in spot-up frequency and, by extension, didn't have the jump-shooting weaponry to maximize their pick-and-roll divers.
Extra opportunities await Westbrook in every area. He shouldn't be jacking almost 25 shots each night, and Oklahoma City once again employs the cast members to pad the dime totals of a ferocious floor general who has doled out more than 10 per game in consecutive seasons.
Runner-Up: John Wall, Washington Wizards
Three cheers for the safe pick.
Wall has averaged at least 10 assists per game through each of the past three years. Even if the Wizards incorporate more on-ball work for Otto Porter, this streak won't cease.
Taking the rock out of Wall's hands would be one of the most pointless decisions in the history of basketball. He cannot be guarded when he gets a head of steam, and no one in the NBA, aside from maybe LeBron James, is better at flinging long-distance kick-outs. And, yes, his wonky three-point splits encourage Washington to keep him at the center of the action.
If we assume Wall will have another 10-dime season—and we should—this decision gets made for us. He hasn't finished lower than third on the assist ladder since 2012-13, when he fell just outside the top five, and the Wizards' offensive pecking order hasn't incurred any changes or developments that infer a forthcoming dent in his usage.
Points Per Game
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Leader: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio
Find a much better alternative. Double-triple dare you.
Too many other quality options will see their scoring fall alongside new (or newish) dynamics. Westbrook has George. Harden has Paul. Davis and Cousins have each other. Ditto for Towns and Jimmy Butler. Curry and Durant still have each other, too.
Pivoting elsewhere rests on too many topsy-turvy situations. Griffin is a nice under-the-radar bet, but let's see him finish the season healthy and/or average 25 points per game first. Lillard has CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic to contend with, along with some iffy spacing. Antetokounmpo has too many point guard responsibilities. (We'll need to rethink this position if he starts swishing threes.)
DeMar DeRozan's career-high 27.3 points per game last season carry some weight—especially when he's expected to let off more treys, per The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. But that shift in shot selection, while overdue, is also unsettling.
"DeRozan is a career 28.1 percent three-point shooter on 841 attempts in the regular season," O'Connor wrote. "Stephen Curry attempted more threes in 2015–16 alone. No other player has a worse three-point percentage with a minimum 600 attempts than DeRozan since 2009–10, per Basketball-Reference."
And so, we land on Kawhi Leonard.
The San Antonio Spurs are not supposed to be a one-man show—or anything fractionally resembling a lone-star act. But they'll come pretty damn close this year.
Tony Parker's recovery from a torn left quad leaves them down their best playmaker. Logging more time without him won't do anything for LaMarcus Aldridge, their second-leading scorer. He'll be fine when Patty Mills is running the offense, but the additional minutes he must spend without either won't do anything for his efficiency.
Rudy Gay will fill some of the gaps...if he is ready to rock following an Achilles injury. Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili can only do so much. Mills will be good for more offense, but the Spurs need him to ferry a heavier playmaking burden. Anyone who doesn't routinely create their own looks might suffer when sophomore Dejounte Murray has the reins.
Leonard's year-to-year scoring increase will subside at some point. His seventh season isn't it. He's upped his ante by more than four points per game through each of the last two campaigns, and the Spurs will need an identical spike from him again—a scoring swell that could vault him past the 30-point threshold.
Runner-Up: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Apply the reasoning used for Leonard's case here, and James becomes a tantalizing pick.
Piling on points isn't his first instinct. He majors as a Set-Up Man, with a minor in Getting Buckets. At 32, he's almost a decade removed from his sole scoring title in 2007-08.
Counting on a fundamental shift in play style feels disingenuous. Then again, sources described the four-time MVP's offseason approach as "obsessed" to ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. Kyrie Irving's trade to Boston has sparked something inside of him.
James has to score by default. Irving led the Cavaliers in shot attempts last season. Kevin Love can soak up some of what's left behind, but the league's transition to positionless basketball has rendered him less of a matchup nightmare.
Isaiah Thomas averaged more points in 2016-17 than everyone except Harden and Westbrook, but he won't supersede James down the stretch as Irving sometimes did. Besides, he could realistically miss most of the year, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe.
Jilted by Irving and faced with a more ambiguous offensive hierarchy, James will have to enter NBA Finals mode before November is out. Sticking him in the runner-up spot could, feasibly, amount to buying low on his scoring exploits.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
