NFL Picks Week 7: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks
It's hard to believe, but we're already nearing the halfway point of the 2014 NFL regular season.
As is usually the case, the first six weeks of the season have brought with them more surprises than you can count. The Dallas Cowboys, fresh off a win over the defending Super Bowl champions, have ridden a strong ground game and defense to a 5-1 record. The story is similar for the 3-2 Cleveland Browns.
No, the Browns aren't terrible. Yes, it frightens me too. At least the Oakland Raiders still stink. We can all take comfort in that.
As is the case every week, the National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report have gathered to sift through the uncertainty that is the NFL and forecast the upcoming week's slate of games.
Here's how they expect Week 7 to play out.
Roll Call/Standings
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Week 6 created a small problem with our standings, courtesy of the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals and one of the most despicable words in the English language.
Tie.
Sunday's tie between the teams raises the question of how to score such an abomination in this contest. I was originally going to count it as a "loss" for everyone. The point here is to correctly predict the winner of football games. Nobody won that game, and therefore everybody lost.
Plus, I'm a jerk.
However, after consulting a panel of experts that included my editor, my mom, my mailman and my niece's stuffed animal collection, I have decided to simply drop the game altogether. No win. No loss. It never happened.
All in all, our panelists turned in another very solid showing in Week 6. All 16 writers and analysts finished at .500 or better, and three scribes posted stellar 12-2 marks.
Chris Simms maintains his overall lead, but his edge is slight.
Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 10-4 (56-34)
Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 9-5 (56-34)
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 7-7 (56-34)
Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 9-5 (50-40)
Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 9-5 (58-32)
Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 9-5 (52-38)
Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 9-5 (48-42)
Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 10-4 (61-29)
Rivers McCown: AFC South Lead Writer 9-5 (51-39)
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 12-2 (58-32)
Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 8-6 (48-42)
Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 12-2 (56-34)
Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 10-4 (62-28)
Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 11-3 (53-37)
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 12-2 (54-36)
Sean Tomlinson: NFC West Lead Writer 11-3 (37-21)
Aggregate: 11-3 (56-34)
New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2)
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The Pick: New England Patriots (16-0)
Geno Smith finally has it figured out.
You see, the second-year quarterback was wrong when he pointed the finger of blame (longest of all fingers) at fans earlier this year.
It's not their fault the Jets are 1-5.
Smith was also wrong when he blamed the screwball concept of time zones for his missing a meeting before the Jets were blown out in San Diego, as reported by Rich Cimini of ESPN.com.
It's not their fault the Jets are 1-5.
Nope. As Dom Cosentino of NJ.com reports, Smith isn't even really struggling at all in 2014. According to him, this is all just a media-driven mountain made from a molehill:
"For me, it hasn’t been (a topsy-turvy season). I think, obviously, with everything that goes on with the media, a lot of things are, I would say, miscommunicated, and then it just gets misprinted and then misunderstood.
"
It's hard telling who Smith will blame after the Patriots pound Gang Green on Thursday night, but my money's on the Freemasons. Or maybe Canada.
Jets: The odds are better of another butt-fumble happening in this game than of the Jets winning.
Patriots: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
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The Pick: Baltimore Ravens (15-1)
The Atlanta Falcons are not a good football team on defense. After six games, only the Falcons' NFC South mates in Tampa Bay are allowing more yards per game. Only three teams have allowed more points.
Atlanta head coach Mike Smith admitted the obvious to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com—that the team isn't getting it done:
"I'm frustrated, discouraged, disappointed because I know that we can play a whole lot better than what we've played. But you know what happens after the day ends today for me? You're on to the next game. And you move forward and you get prepared to put these guys in the best position that they possible can be in.
"
Unfortunately for the Falcons, this week they travel to face a Baltimore Ravens team firing on all cylinders. In fact, after tossing five touchdown passes in a beatdown of the Buccaneers in Week 6, Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco told ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike (h/t Sarah Ellison of the team's website) the Ravens offense is "playing about as well as I can remember."
In the eyes of everyone, save AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, that bodes poorly for the Falcons this Sunday.
Falcons: McCown
Ravens: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5)
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Winner: Washington Redskins (13-3)
Some games on the NFL schedule are more than just games. They're events, dates circled on calendars months in advance. Parties are planned. Vacation days are scheduled for the Monday after.
Of course, some fans may need Monday off after watching the Tennessee Titans and Washington battle Sunday.
That kind of nausea can be hard to shake.
This game features two teams with a combined record of 3-9. Each team has a losing streak of at least four games six weeks into the season. The two teams have a combined point differential of minus-83.
With quarterback Kirk Cousins struggling mightily in D.C., there have been calls to pull him in favor of Colt McCoy. Head coach Jay Gruden told Gene Wang of The Washington Post he hasn't considered such a move, but lots of coaches say lots of things.
There's a very real possibility that at some point this game will feature McCoy and Charlie Whitehurst as the quarterbacks.
Seriously. In the NFL and everything.
Titans: Bowen, Davenport, Kruse
Redskins: Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4)
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The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (15-1)
At the end of Rocky IV, as the title character fights Ivan Drago in Moscow, Rocky cuts the big Russian. It's one of the turning points of the bout, and it leads Rocky's trainer to proclaim, "You see? You see? He's not a machine! He's a man; he's a man!"
Well, the Seattle Seahawks got cut last week, punched in the mouth at home by the Dallas Cowboys.
At least one of our voters thinks that punch staggered the champs. NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter predicts that a Rams team that played the Seahawks tough in St. Louis last year will pull an upset that would set off a firestorm on social media.
There are only two problems with the Rocky IV analogy. First, this isn't the movies, and the plucky underdog more often than not ends up getting plucked in the NFL.
Second, the Rams aren't Rocky Balboa. St. Louis ranks 26th in the NFL in run defense, allowing nearly 140 yards per game. The team is dead last in sacks, with one all season long.
If you can't stop the run or pressure Russell Wilson, you aren't beating an angry Seattle team.
Seahawks: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Rams: Schalter
Cleveland Browns (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
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The Pick: Cleveland Browns (15-1)
Even when things are going well for the Cleveland Browns, something has to spoil the good times.
Sunday's 31-10 thrashing of the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers was the Browns' biggest win in years, but it came at a high price. As Mary Kay Cabot of the Northeast Ohio Media Group reports, center Alex Mack is likely out for the rest of the season after breaking a bone in his leg against Pittsburgh.
Head coach Mike Pettine bemoaned the loss while asserting that the show must go on:
"I told the team in the meeting today, we lost two warriors in (Mack) and Armonty (Bryant). But we'll check the mail and there's not going to be any sympathy cards from around the league. It's the cliche, but it is truly next man up. We can't feel sorry for ourselves and I'm confident that we'll put a functional group out there.
"
This week's trip to Jacksonville kicks off a three-game stretch for the Browns against teams with a combined record of 1-16.
Don't look now, but there's a significant possibility that at the season's midway point, the Cleveland freaking Browns will be in the thick of the playoff chase.
Repent, ye sinners. The end is nigh.
Browns: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Jaguars: Gagnon
Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
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The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
One of Week 7's biggest games takes place in Indianapolis between a pair of division leaders and playoff teams from a season ago.
It's a game in which the Colts will be looking for some payback. These teams met last year in Cincinnati, with the Bengals rolling to a 21-0 lead before cruising to a 42-28 win.
The Colts have won four in a row thanks in large part to Andrew Luck's MVP-caliber season, but as ESPN.com's Coley Harvey pointed out, it's on the ground where the Bengals have had issues defensively of late:
"For two straight weeks now, an opposing offense plowed through the Bengals' defense on the ground, collecting more than 100 yards rushing. In Week 5, the Patriots' 220 yards on the ground primarily came from running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. On Sunday, it was Panthers quarterback Cam Newton who gouged the first two levels of Cincinnati's defense, rushing for 107 yards on 17 carries.
"
Add in a Cincinnati receiving corps that has been decimated by injuries, and the overwhelming majority of our pundits think that the Bengals' winless streak will hit three games Sunday.
Bengals: Simms, Tanier
Colts: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)
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The Pick: Buffalo Bills (13-3)
If you're going to approach Teddy Bridgewater over the next few days, please do so slowly while making sure the rookie quarterback can see you.
Bridgewater's a little jumpy right now, and understandably so.
He was battered mercilessly by the Detroit Lions in Week 6. As Ben Goessling of ESPN.com reports, Bridgewater was sacked eight times, hit three more times and pressured on 17 of 47 dropbacks.
The results were predictably disastrous, but head coach Mike Zimmer insisted that Bridgewater's three interceptions against the Lions haven't shaken his confidence in the youngster:
"I believe, with all my heart, that Teddy Bridgewater is going to be the franchise quarterback here for a long, long time. I believe that the team believes that, too. Guys in the organization, the players, everybody believes this guy will be the future—and a bright future for this organization. We have to make sure we continue to help him to be successful—playing, coaching, whatever it is. The first interception that he had, he thought the safety was going to grab the guy that was running across, and he didn't. The other two were tipped balls. I shouldn't say they weren't his fault, but there were two. I'm glad he's got his low spot out of the way and he's ready to go back to work.
"
We'll see if Zimmer's tune is as bright after Bridgewater and the Vikings face a Buffalo pass rush that may be even better than Detroit's. Detroit's 20 sacks lead the NFL...
...and Buffalo sits one back with 19.
Vikings: Bowen, Hansen, McCown
Bills: Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
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The Pick: Chicago Bears (11-5)
A week ago, the Chicago Bears appeared to be in a world of trouble. The team had dropped two straight, and with injuries ravaging the linebacker corps, the Bears were fielding a patchwork defense heading into a matchup with the high-powered Atlanta Falcons.
That patchwork defense rose to the occasion and then some. The Bears played their best game of the season on that side of the ball in a 27-13 win, and head coach Marc Trestman was effusive in his praise for the defense, according to Larry Mayer of the team's website:
"It starts with [defensive coordinator] Mel [Tucker] and our defensive staff with [linebackers coach] Reggie Herring getting them ready. I think that the guys on the defensive line and the back end really wrapped their arms around those young linebackers.
They played hard. They were in the right place. We asked them to just, "do your job" and not do anything more than that. They played exceptionally hard. Our entire defense and coaching staff deserve a lot of credit. They worked together.
"
The Bears may well be whipping out the duct tape again Sunday, but just over two-thirds of our voters believe there's enough left on the roll for Chicago to get a second straight win.
Bears: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Tanier
Dolphins: Freeman, Schalter, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson
New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
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The Pick: Detroit Lions (11-5)
The fact that the Detroit Lions are winning isn't all that surprising; there's a lot of talent on that roster. However, the way the Lions are winning games has opened eyes across the NFL.
The Lions are getting it done with defense. The team ranks first in the NFL in total defense. First in passing defense. First in sacks. First in scoring defense. Third in run defense.
In other words, the Lions are playing pretty well on that side of the ball.
Defensive tackle Nick Fairley told Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press after the team's win over the Vikings last week that he thinks the 2014 Detroit defense can be historically good:
""We can be great," Fairley said as reporters gathered around his locker after the game. "We can be great, but we're not there yet."
Great?
"Great," Fairley said. "We can be the best ever, in my eyes."
"
Fairley may have had a bit too much blue Kool-Aid, and Drew Brees and the Saints represent a stiff test for the Lions. But the game's at Ford Field, and the Lions have already shut down Aaron Rodgers in Motown this year.
Saints: Freeman, Hansen, Miller, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Lions: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Tanier
Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
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The Pick: Green Bay Packers (15-1)
Much like this week's tilt in Indianapolis, Sunday's showdown in Titletown features a pair of division champions from last year and first-place teams from this year.
The Green Bay Packers are riding high, winners of three straight since quarterback Aaron Rodgers' now-famous admonition for fans to just "relax."
Those Green Bay fans were on the edge of their seats last week, watching Rodgers guide the team on an 60-yard scoring drive against the Miami Dolphins that culminated in a game-winning touchdown pass to Andrew Quarless with three seconds left.
The drive featured a fake-spike the play before that picked up a first down—a play that drew heated criticism from ESPN's Skip Bayless, according to Ryan Wood of USA Today:
"Aaron Rodgers is getting applauded for something that could've made him the goat of the game instead of the hero of the game. You ask me how impressed I am? Zero. Zero. Tom Brady would never have to resort to these type of plays. Tom Brady wouldn't do that.
"
I have no idea what Brady had to do with any of this, but at least he didn't mention Tim Tebow. In any event, I think Bayless' criticisms can best be summed up thusly.
The panel, meanwhile, picks the Packers to power on.
Panthers: McCown
Packers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-1)
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The Pick: San Diego Chargers (14-2)
San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is playing as well as anyone in the NFL at his position this season. Through six games, Rivers has thrown 15 touchdown passes against only two interceptions.
In fact, as Hayley Elwood of the Chargers' website reports, Rivers set a bit of NFL history in last week's comeback win over the Oakland Raiders:
"While Rivers tied a personal record in Sunday’s win, he also set an NFL record. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to have five straight games posting a passer rating of 120.0 or better after inking a 123.8 rating against the Raiders. This milestone surpassed two of the league’s top quarterbacks in Johnny Unitas and Kurt Warner, who held the record with four games.
"
That's pretty good company.
This week, the Chargers welcome in a Chiefs team that's coming off a bye with its season hanging on by a thread. Simply put, the Chiefs can't afford to fall three back of the Bolts.
Unfortunately, a Kansas City defense that helped propel the team to the playoffs a year ago has been ravaged by injuries, and that's bad news given how easily Rivers has been carving up opponents this season.
Chiefs: Bowen, Sobleski
Chargers: Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Tanier, Tomlinson
Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5)
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The Pick: Arizona Cardinals (15-1)
The Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders are at opposite ends of the NFL spectrum.
The Redbirds, despite numerous personnel losses and injuries on defense and three different quarterbacks this year, just keep on winning. The Raiders, on the other hand, came close last week but, as they've been wont to do in recent years, found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.
This week's game features a reunion of sorts in the Bay Area. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, who played for the Raiders in 2011 and 2012, was back in the starting lineup in Arizona's Week 6 win over Washington, and head coach Bruce Arians told Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com that Palmer's shoulder injury is no longer an issue.
"I was concerned until I saw him," Arians said. "And then now he feels great, so we should just get better and better and just get stronger."
Palmer will no doubt hear it from the Black Hole, but it's Arizona running back Andre Ellington who poses the biggest problem for Oakland's 31st-ranked run defense.
AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst thinks rookie quarterback Derek Carr and the Raiders will pull off the upset, but the rest of our voters believe Raiders fans will be booing more than just Palmer on Sunday.
Cardinals: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Raiders: Hangst
New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
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The Pick: Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
We've heard this story before. The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys prepare to square off in an NFC East showdown. One team is sitting in first place, thanks to a strong ground game and defense. The other has been all over the place, hovers at the .500 mark and can't afford to fall any further off the pace.
Of course, in recent years the roles were reversed. This year, it's the Cowboys who power into the game winners of five straight, while the inconsistent Giants were just pounded 27-0 by the Philadelphia Eagles.
Not only is Dallas sitting atop the NFC East, but Sean Leahy of The Boston Globe is one of a number of pundits who think Dallas might be the best team in the league:
"Don’t laugh, but the Dallas Cowboys just might be the best team in the NFL.
All season, we’ve been waiting for the real Cowboys to show up — as in the mistake-prone squad with the NFL’s worst defense that many expected them to be.
But in Sunday’s victory at Seattle — where only one other opponent had won in the past three seasons — Tony Romo & Co. showed that their true identity may be as a playoff team. No team has a better record than Dallas at 5-1.
"
Our experts are buying the Cowboys in Week 7, with only three scribes picking the visiting Giants to keep their hopes in the division afloat on the road.
Giants: Freeman, McCown, Schalter
Cowboys: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1)
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The Pick: Denver Broncos (16-0)
You may have heard this once or twice over the past decade-and-a-half, but Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is pretty good.
On Sunday night, Manning will have a chance to add yet another achievement to a career filled with them. With three touchdown passes, he will amass 509 career scoring strikes.
No player in NFL history has that many.
As you'd expect, though, even while on the cusp of breaking Brett Favre's record, Manning downplayed his personal achievements while speaking with Mike Klis of The Denver Post:
"I don't know if any of them are big for me, necessarily, especially in the middle of the season. We're trying to win football games. It's tough. It's a tough schedule. That's all I'm thinking about. Trying to find a way to win the game. If Ronnie (Hillman) wants to run for four touchdowns next week, I'm in favor of that.
"
We'll have the panel's take on whether Manning will break the record in Thursday's consensus predictions article, but our experts are unanimous in their opinion that Manning will get the win he seeks against the San Francisco 49ers.
Of course, I'm 1-5 on Sunday nights this year, so that unanimous vote may not be such a good thing after all.
49ers: Colin Kaepernick would be just as good as Manning if it weren't for the tattoos, said no one with any sense ever.
Broncos: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)
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The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
All is most certainly not well in the Steel City.
Last week, the Steelers were blasted 31-10 by the Browns in Cleveland. It's the Steelers' worst loss in the rivalry in 25 years and only the second time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has lost to the Browns.
As CBS Pittsburgh reports, Roethlisberger took the blame for the loss:
"It was frustrating. I felt like I could and should have played better and do more to give our team a chance to win. I take it upon myself and it was a long bus ride home. You got to let it fester inside you a little bit because I think that’s what motivates you, but you also have to find a way to move on and that is why today we have moved on and were getting ready for this week.
"
Getting ready for this week means one thing for Roethlisberger and the Steelers.
Preparing for J.J. Watt.
The Texans defensive end was a force in last week's loss to Indianapolis, tallying seven tackles, two sacks and his third touchdown of the season.
However, much of Watt's impact is being squandered by a Houston offense struggling mightily to move the ball consistently in 2014, and just over half of our voters expect Watt's efforts to be in vain again in Week 7.
Texans: Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Kruse, Schalter, Schottey
Steelers: Bowen, Freeman, Hansen, McCown, Miller, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
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