NFL Picks Week 5: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks
The first month of the 2014 NFL season is in the books.
The last weekend in September brought with it plenty of surprises, none bigger than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' thrilling last-second win at Pittsburgh.
It just goes to show you that in today's salary-cap era, parity is alive and well. Any Given Sunday is more than just a movie; in the NFL it's a way of life.
Of course, the more upsets there are in a given week, the harder it gets for the intrepid souls who actually attempt to forecast how the games will play out.
The National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report are all about Sisyphean tasks, and as they roll the rock back up the hill, here's their look ahead to Week 5.
Roll Call/Standings
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OK, so about all those upsets in Week 4.
In addition to unanimously picking the Pittsburgh Steelers (oops), our voters also overwhelmingly picked both the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots to pull out big wins on the road.
Both teams got smoked. Oops and oops again.
Add it all up, and it totals the second losing week of the season for our writers as a group. Three writers went 4-9 on the week.
Not so for Chris Simms, who flipped the script and widened his overall lead.
(Season standings listed in parentheses)
Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 7-6 (34-27)
Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 7-6 (36-25)
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 7-6 (35-26)
Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 4-9 (29-32)
Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 7-6 (38-23)
Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 6-7 (32-29)
Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 4-9 (28-33)
Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 8-5 (39-22)
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 7-6 (35-26)
Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 5-8 (30-31)
Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 7-6 (33-28)
Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 9-4 (41-20)
Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 7-6 (31-30)
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 6-7 (30-31)
Sean Tomlinson: NFC West Lead Writer 4-9 (16-13)
Aggregate: 6-7 (33-28)
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
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The Pick: Green Bay Packers (15-1)
Last week more or less summed up the Minnesota Vikings' 2014 season.
Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was great in his first career start, throwing for over 300 yards, running for a score and leading the Vikings to a big win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Then Bridgewater was carted off the field with a fourth-quarter ankle injury, and just like that the parade got rainy.
The sun poked back out Tuesday though. As Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk reports, an MRI on Bridgewater's ankle showed no ligament damage, but the young quarterback cautioned it's still too soon to say whether he'll be available Thursday night at Lambeau Field:
""Each day I'm making progress. I'm just going to keep moving, move forward and try to get ready for Thursday."
Asked if he could put a percentage on his chances of playing, Bridgewater answered, "I cannot. We still have a long time until Thursday, so right now I'm going to continue to just rehab, do a little exercise today and see where I am the next couple days."
"
Whether it's the questions surrounding Bridgewater or a Packers team that just blasted the Bears in Chicago, our experts don't think it's going to matter.
Except Simms, and given his overall lead among our pundits, his pick of the upset is a notable one.
Vikings: Simms
Packers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)
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The Pick: Chicago Bears (11-5)
Both teams in this game enter Week 5 licking their wounds.
Whether it was the Bears at home or the Panthers on the road, the two teams were roasted in Week 4 by a combined score of 76-27. Both are facing all sorts of questions on the defensive side of the ball.
As NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse pointed out, Chicago's defense offered precious little resistance against the Packers last Sunday:
"A Packers offense in such disarray over the first three weeks suddenly sparked to life against Chicago, gaining almost eight yards a play and scoring on its first six possessions. Only a blocked field goal in the fourth quarter kept Green Bay's offense from finishing a perfect 7-for-7 on scoring drives Sunday.
While the Bears' much-maligned run defense held firm—the Packers rushed for just 56 yards—the secondary and pass rush had no answer for Rodgers.
"
However, the Panthers can see the Bears' issues on defense and raise them a ground game that's been absolutely annihilated by injuries.
Given that, over two-thirds of our voters took the Bears on the road.
Bears: Bowen, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Panthers: Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, McCown, Simms
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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)
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The Pick: Cleveland Browns (15-1)
Repent! The end is near! The Browns have been picked to win a football game, thus opening the final seal that stands between mankind and Armageddon!
Or something.
Kidding aside, it's not that hard to see why the panel picked Cleveland, even on the road.
The Browns have at least been competitive in all three of their games. After blowing out the Chiefs in Week 1, the Titans have spent the last three weeks being used as a speed bag by the rest of the NFL.
Let's put it this way: Head coach Ken Whisenhunt admitted to reporters (via Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com) after last week's loss to the Indianapolis Colts that maybe, just maybe, his team isn't very good:
"Ken Whisenhunt fielded this question from The Tennessean's Jim Wyatt after the game: "I know when you first got this job you said you weren't necessarily asking for patience. Do you think maybe you overestimated the team that you have?"
His answer: "You know, I guess that's the problem saying those kind of things. You go on a stretch where you have a couple games and you don't play well, and those are the kind of things that, hey, I still believe that, I still believe we have a team that's good enough, that's better than what we are playing right now. But we have to look at what we are doing, how we are doing it. We have to look at everything. Maybe. Maybe, Jim."
"
Whisenhunt then glanced over at quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, dropped his head into his hands and started sobbing quietly.
I may have made that last part up. But I bet he wanted to.
Browns: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Titans: McCown
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
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The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (16-0)
At first glance, the Eagles' 26-21 setback in San Francisco doesn't seem so bad.
After all, the Eagles were in a position to win the game at the end on the road against a perennial playoff contender.
However, the score alone doesn't reveal that the Eagles didn't score an offensive touchdown, or that a running game that was among the best in the league last year ranks 26th in the NFL after four games.
LeSean McCoy, who led the NFL in rushing last year but is averaging a miserable 2.7 yards a pop in 2014, didn't mince words when speaking with Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio).
"I'm embarrassed," McCoy said after gaining 17 yards on 10 carries against the 49ers.
This week would appear to be the perfect opportunity to get that ground game going. Not only are the Eagles at home, but they face a Rams team that's allowed over 150 rushing yards a game so far in 2014.
Our voters apparently expect that very thing to happen, with the Eagles sweeping all 16 picks.
Rams: At least Austin Davis is fun to watch, right?
Eagles: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2)
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The Pick: New York Giants (12-4)
Good luck figuring out the New York Giants.
Over the first two weeks of the 2014 season, the Giants were a Big Blue mess. The offense was horribly out of sync, and it looked like the Giants would be lucky to win five games.
Now, after back-to-back wins, including a waxing of Washington last week, New York is very much in the thick of the NFC East race.
Much of that winning streak can be traced to improved play from quarterback Eli Manning, who attributed the uptick by the G-Men to increased familiarity with Ben McAdoo's new offense while speaking with Jordan Raanan of NJ.com:
"I thought we did a good job of getting the ball out fast [against Washington]. I thought we had a plan, I thought I had a good plan for most of the plays and where I wanted to go with the ball, getting through my progressions.
There's still some improvement, still some things to get better on, some things with footwork and whatnot, but [we] definitely made strides and have to keep trying to get better each and every week. You can't get satisfied, you can't think we've got this thing figured out because we still have ... room for improvement.
"
Our panel apparently expects the Giants to keep right on improving, with 75 percent of them predicting the Giants will down the Falcons Sunday.
As NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter wrote, "The Giants are on fire right now, and Eli Manning is playing as well as he ever has. Can't see Atlanta's 31st-ranked defense coming in and shutting them down at home."
Falcons: Frenz, Gagnon, Miller, Tanier
Giants: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
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The Pick: New Orleans Saints (16-0)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have taken a lot of shots over the past couple of weeks, especially after being destroyed on national TV by the Falcons two weeks ago.
And yet, four weeks into the 2014 campaign, the "lowly" Buccaneers have the same record as the New Orleans Saints, who some tabbed as a Super Bowl contender entering this year.
The reason for the Saints' early swoon isn't hard to pinpoint. After climbing into the top 10 in total defense in Rob Ryan's first year as defensive coordinator, the Saints have plummeted to 29th in the league, allowing nearly 400 yards a game.
Ryan told Katherine Terrell of The Times-Picayune that he's well aware that isn't getting the job done:
"Right now, man, nobody's doing worse than the Ryan brothers. We might say we are two of the best coaches, and I believe that, and I know that. We're doing everything we can to do it, but we have to do more.
"
The Saints may be in a world of trouble, but not a single voter on our panel thinks that things have hit a point where the team can't handle Tampa at home.
Of course, not a single pundit here at Bleacher Report thought the Bucs would win last week either.
Buccaneers: It's us against the world, men! No respect I tell ya!
Saints: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
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The Pick: Dallas Cowboys (15-1)
The month of September was pretty good to the state of Texas.
After getting waxed by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys have reeled off three wins in a row, including an impressive beatdown of the Saints last Sunday night.
The Houston Texans, on the other hand, have already won more games in a month than the team did in all of 2013.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about the hot start for the Cowboys is the way Dallas is winning.
The Cowboys are running the ball.
DeMarco Murray isn't just the NFL's leading rusher after a month. He's the league's leading rusher by over 150 yards and on a pace that would break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record.
In the opinion of NFL National Lead Writer Michael Schottey, a large portion of the credit for Murray's success goes to a Dallas O-line that has been dominant so far in 2014:
"Now, after years of building in the trenches, the team can do more than just put up big numbers one day only to collapse the next.
Efforts like Sunday's allow [Jerry] Jones to say things like what he told reporters following the game. 'I don't recall ever seeing a Cowboys team, in my 25 years, play better in terms of effort than we did in that first half,' he said.
That's because this team isn't just talented. Now it's tough as well, and that makes this Cowboys team as dangerous as it's been in a long time.
"
That line faces a stiff test in J.J. Watt and the Texans this week, but with the exception of AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, the entire panel expects Dallas to post its fourth straight win Sunday.
Texans: McCown
Cowboys: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
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The Pick: Detroit Lions (15-1)
If you look up "journeyman" in the dictionary, you'll probably find a picture of Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton.
On Sunday, Orton will make his first start for the Bills after being named the starter over second-year pro EJ Manuel earlier in the week.
It will be the fifth NFL team Orton has started a game for.
Head coach Doug Marrone said via the team's Twitter account (per Ross Jones of Fox Sports) that he feels Orton gives the team the best chance to win this week in Motown:
"Kyle Orton is our starting QB right now. We need more overall production from that position. We came in today, looked at the tape, and made a decision that gives us the best opportunity to win.
"
Unfortunately, Orton's first start for the Bills comes on the road against the NFL's top-ranked defense, leading all our voters save NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier to predict the Lions will come out on top.
Bills: Tanier
Lions: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
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The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
The marquee game of Week 5 takes place in Indianapolis, a rematch of a Wild Card playoff game from two years ago.
Both the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens have weathered an early storm brought on by a suspension to find success. For the Ravens, it was the fallout from Ray Rice's domestic violence arrest and subsequent release from the team.
The Colts lost 2013 sack king Robert Mathis, who was first suspended for the first four games of 2014 for testing positive for a banned substance and then tore his Achilles tendon working out.
In fact, another suspension has rocked the Indy defense. As Mike Wells of ESPN.com reports, strong safety LaRon Landry will miss the next four games after violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy.
It's those losses on defense that led me to pick the visiting Ravens. The Colts' complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks is going to come back to bite them eventually, and the Ravens have reeled off three wins in a row after falling to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1.
AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst likes the visitors as well:
"Baltimore boasts many things the Colts cannot right now: a strong offensive line, a balanced offensive attack, a non-porous defense. Yes, the Colts have Andrew Luck and his fabled career of comebacks and game-winning drives, and are a threat to put up points regardless of their shortcomings. But the Ravens are thriving and they will prove that point by winning on the road."
NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter is picking the Ravens, too:
"The Colts offense against the Ravens defense is an irresistible force/immovable object matchup," Schalter said. "The Ravens offense is nearly as potent as the Colts', though, and the Colts defense is decidedly average."
However, we are in the minority, as slightly over half our voters think that Luck's white-hot play so far this year will continue in a Colts victory.
Ravens: Davenport, Hangst, Hansen, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Tomlinson
Colts: Bowen, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Sobleski, Tanier
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
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The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2)
After watching the Pittsburgh Steelers fail to stop a winless Tampa bay Buccaneers team from scoring the game-winning touchdown with seven seconds left last week in Pittsburgh, NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman offered a sobering assessment of one of the NFL's most storied franchises:
"The Pittsburgh Steelers, as we know them, are dead.
This is particularly true on defense. Oh sure, the Steelers will win some games. They will beat the Jacksonvilles and Clevelands and Tennessees of the world. They will have moments, like they did against Carolina last week, because they have pride. Then again, they just lost in Week 4 to a team that gave up 56 points to the Falcons in Week 3. There are no more sure things in Pittsburgh.
This team is no longer great. This franchise is no longer elite. The Steelers are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC. It's time to face the fact they're just not that good and haven't been for some time.
"
Hangst went Freeman one better:
"Blake Bortles has provided the Jaguars with the offensive shot in the arm that they need. He's a rookie, which means be on the lookout for Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to try to fool Bortles with some of his tricks, but the key word here is "try." This isn't the prototypical Steelers defense any longer. Pittsburgh's offense may be good enough to keep them in this game, but the road environment and the terrible defense won't be enough to get them past a Jaguars team that seem to haunt the Steelers regardless of win-loss record."
The vast majority of our experts disagree, but one thing's for sure: If Hangst is right and the Steelers lose to winless teams in back-to-back games, already panicky Pittsburgh proponents will be positively and profoundly perturbed.
Steelers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Jaguars: Frenz, Hangst
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
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The Pick: Denver Broncos (15-1)
Only two undefeated teams remain in the NFL. Of the two, the larger surprise has to be the Arizona Cardinals.
Despite missing starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the past two games and losing a slew of personnel on defense, the Cardinals have managed to keep on winning. They haven't beaten scrubs either. Two of Arizona's three wins came against playoff teams from last year.
There was hope that Palmer would return for Sunday's Mile High showdown with the defending AFC champs, but the veteran QB told Kyle Odegard of the team's website that his return in Week 5 is no sure thing:
"I was hoping to be throwing more than I am. It's slowly improving. Nothing ever improves as fast as you want it to. I'll just continue to stay on what I have been doing and hopefully it continues to progress.
"
Schalter thinks that, Palmer or no Palmer, the Redbirds have what it takes to keep their improbable streak going. "As talented as the Broncos are," Schalter wrote, "they haven't looked dominant on either side of the ball. The Cardinals have a dominant defense and can score when they need to. I like the upset."
With that said, the Broncos have had two weeks to get healthy and stew about their overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, and the rest of our voters think Denver is going to take those frustrations and knock Arizona from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Cardinals: Schalter
Broncos: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
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The Pick: San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
"No trait is more justified than revenge in the right time and place."—Meir Kahane
There certainly isn't going to be a better time and place for Alex Smith to exact his revenge on the San Francisco 49ers than Sunday at Levi's Stadium.
Well, except maybe that game at the very end of the season.
Despite Smith being one of the winningest quarterbacks in the NFL since 2011, the 49ers turned their backs on him, first benching the former first overall pick in 2012 and then dealing him to Kansas City before last season.
NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter thinks payback is on the table this week:
"The 49ers are coming off a big win, but it was more like they lost a self-destruction contest than won a great football game. The Chiefs are riding high after their most complete performance in two decades. You have to think Alex Smith wants this one badly.
"
Of course, that's hardly the game's only subplot. Both these teams made the postseason last year but have played uneven football in 2014, although the Chiefs are coming off their best effort of the season after throttling the New England Patriots Monday night.
Three other voters (this writer included) joined Schalter in picking the Chiefs to leave town with a win, but three-quarters of our writers expect the home team to prevail in a game that could just as easily be an instant classic as an unwatchable slopfest.
Chiefs: Davenport, Schalter, Sobleski, Tomlinson
49ers: Bowen, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Tanier
New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)
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The Pick: San Diego Chargers (16-0)
The natives are growing restless in the Big Apple.
After boos rained down on second-year signal-caller Geno Smith during last week's third straight loss, Smith responded by dropping an F-bomb on a heckler. Still, despite Smith's struggles and calls for Mike Vick to take over under center, head coach Rex Ryan has made it clear he has no intention of making a change at quarterback.
Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News feels that is a major mistake:
"The Jets enter a pivotal three-game stretch against the Chargers, Broncos and Patriots that could bury Ryan. His decision to stay with the struggling Smith, whose seven turnovers and 75.1 passer rating (only one current starting QB, Jake Locker, has a lower one) have loomed large in the team's awful start, is ridiculous for myriad reasons.
"
Whether it's Smith or Vick at quarterback, the fact remains that Sunday the Jets face a quarterback in Philip Rivers of the Chargers who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL at his position.
Given the sorry state of the Jets secondary, that doesn't bode well for Gang Green.
Jets: This particular Jet must be a stealth fighter, because no one can see them winning this week.
Chargers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2)
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The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (14-2)
The Bengals are coming! The Bengals are coming!
That's the cry echoing through Beantown this week. Well, that and the crying.
After getting waylaid by the Kansas City Chiefs 41-14 in Week 4, the Patriots look little like the dynasty that head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady built in Boston over the past decade.
The once-potent New England offense has become a parody of itself, a hitching, lurching mess that ranks 29th in the NFL.
Monday's meltdown caused many pundits, among them Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter, to proclaim that the Patriots' days atop the NFL are done:
"Their failure was so complete, so embarrassing, that it's hard to see any way they'll win more games than they lose—let alone collect their usual division title or represent the AFC in the Super Bowl again.
With 37-year-old quarterback Tom Brady playing the worst football of his life, behind an offensive line that can't protect him, across from a defense that's the antithesis of Patriots football, the awful conclusion is inescapable: It's over.
"
Now the Patriots have a short week to prepare for a Cincinnati squad coming off its bye week that looks very much like the Super Bowl contender people thought the Patriots were in September.
There's trouble brewing in Boston, and in the opinion of our voters, things are only going to get worse Sunday night.
Bengals: Bowen, Davenport, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Patriots: Freeman, Frenz
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
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The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (16-0)
What a difference a week makes.
Granted, Washington was coming off a loss last week as well. But Kirk Cousins had passed for over 400 yards in defeat. The third-year pro was already being anointed the quarterback of the future in D.C.
That Griffin kid? Yesterday's news, pal.
Of course, the same fans who exalted Cousins then are excoriating him now after he turned the ball over five times in a blowout loss to the New York Giants.
Now, columnists such as Jason Reid of The Washington Post are wondering aloud if either of Washington's quarterbacks is the team's long-term answer at the position:
"While Kirk Cousins refocuses on trying to complete passes to teammates instead of opponents, there's a lot to consider in the Washington Redskins' quarterback debate. Robert Griffin III or Cousins was expected to emerge with the long-term job. But after Griffin suffered yet another serious injury and Cousins took a step backward recently, another choice may be correct: none of the above.
There are many questions about the two players on whom the Redskins are relying to fill the sport’s most important position. Griffin must prove he can stay in the game and excel at it from the pocket. Cousins has shown flashes of being the type of productive drop-back passer Coach Jay Gruden likes. Cousins's potential, however, likely won't keep him atop the depth chart if he continues to commit turnovers at an alarming rate.
"
Not the kind of talk you want surrounding a football team heading into a matchup with the defending world champs, especially when those champs have had an extra week to prepare ways to make Cousins miserable.
Seahawks: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Redskins: Marcus Mariota, anyone?
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