NBA Training Camp 2014: The Biggest X-Factor for Every Team
Even though every NBA player's stock contains a bit of volatility, most rotation members are fairly well-known commodities. The stars are going to be stars, and the up-and-coming players have already been identified by many heading into the 2014-15 season.
The role players? Well, they're still going to be role players...for the most part, at least.
But each team also has at least one X-factor—a player who has a big gap between his seasonal floor and ceiling.
He might be another scrub, a lackluster rotation member or a solid contributor, but he can be so much more. He fits a need, has upside and can help push his team to the proverbial next level, even if he won't always be the one who gets credit for doing so.
Regardless of how much recognition they get, if X-factors pan out, the team they play for is going to be in much better shape.
Atlanta Hawks: Pero Antic
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If Pero Antic had been able to connect from the perimeter during the first round of the playoffs, the Atlanta Hawks would most likely have advanced past the Indiana Pacers and made a bit of noise during the second round of the Eastern Conference festivities.
Instead, the perimeter-shooting big man from Macedonia successfully drew Roy Hibbert out of the paint but ended up knocking down just 12 percent of his three-point attempts and 16.7 percent of his shots from the field. Considering he shot 32.7 and 41.8 percent from those respective areas during the regular season, those aren't exactly impressive numbers.
Antic is 32 years old, but he was a rookie during the 2013-14 campaign. Now, he'll be more experienced and increasingly confident, allowing him to spell the Atlanta bigs and completely change the approach of an opposing defense.
If he starts connecting on those long-range attempts, he'll become a player who opposing coaches have to game-plan for rather heavily.
Boston Celtics: Kelly Olynyk
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The Boston Celtics have had trouble finding a high-quality center for a while now, but Kelly Olynyk still has a chance to change that if he can figure out his shooting touch in the Association. Additionally, he can be the valuable floor-spacing big the C's so desperately need, especially while they're throwing out a handful of poor-shooting guards in the rotation.
We're still not that far removed from the time Olynyk was posting huge offensive numbers in Spokane, Washington. However, he's struggled while attempting to validate his Gonzaga tenure with top-notch performances at the sport's highest level.
During his rookie season, Olynyk averaged 8.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, but he did so while shooting 46.6 percent from the field. His player efficiency rating, via Basketball-Reference.com, was just about average (15.2), and he earned 2.9 win shares on the year.
Basically, he was a decent rotational big but by no means a high-caliber starter for a rebuilding franchise. If that changes, the offense will look significantly better under Brad Stevens.
Brooklyn Nets: Bojan Bogdanovic
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The Brooklyn Nets are getting Brook Lopez back, which should greatly increase their chances of making some noise in the Eastern Conference, but they still have to figure out how to replace all the other losses.
Shaun Livingston fleeing to the Golden State Warriors hurts. Paul Pierce leaving for the brighter pastures offered by the Washington Wizards is an even bigger deal. And that's saying nothing of the age-related declines that might affect Kevin Garnett, Joe Johnson and perhaps even Deron Williams.
Enter Bojan Bogdanovic.
The 25-year-old small forward from Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a fantastic player across the pond, and he put his versatile scoring skills on display throughout the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup in Spain.
According to RealGM.com, he averaged 21.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game over the course of his six outings for Croatia, and he shot 50 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from behind that shortened international arc.
Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver certainly had kind things to say about him after his country was eliminated from medal contention:
"Bogdanovic, 25, finished as the tournament's third-leading scorer, turning in another strong series of performances after earning All-Tournament Team honors at 2013 EuroBasket. Although Croatia was eliminated by France in the Round of 16, the 6-foot-8 wing went out in a blaze of glory, finishing with 27 points (on 11-of-19 shooting) and six rebounds.
"
Now it's time to see what he can do in the NBA. Brooklyn's playoff hopes might rest upon his ability to provide points off the bench, scary as that may be.
Charlotte Hornets: Cody Zeller
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Count me among those who were massively disappointed by Cody Zeller's output during the first post-Hoosiers season of his basketball career.
Zeller struggled with the transition from college ball to the NBA, averaging just 6.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game while shooting 42.6 percent from the field. He never looked comfortable, his mid-range game just wasn't working and he couldn't justify a large role in the Charlotte Bobcats' rotation.
Maybe being a Hornet will treat him better.
Zeller still has plenty of offensive potential, which is a big deal on a team that so desperately needs a complement for its fantastic defensive abilities. And with Josh McRoberts gone to the Miami Heat, Zeller will now be fighting with Marvin Williams and Noah Vonleh for playing time, neither of whom has as much upside (this season) as him.
"I feel like I did pretty well in the few starts I had," Zeller told The Associated Press this offseason (via the Washington Times-Herald). "I know it's a lot different starting than coming off the bench just because of the rotations—I figured that out quick last year. It'll definitely be different but I'm looking forward to it."
He can run the floor quite well, and if he starts knocking down jumpers and showing off his creativity and fundamentals on the interior, he'll be able to justify those words.
Chicago Bulls: Doug McDermott
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Can a rookie be an X-factor?
Absolutely.
Doug McDermott might be the rare first-year player who actually works his way into Tom Thibodeau's starting lineup. The defensive-minded coach is normally hesitant to hand large roles to inexperienced players, but McDermott's offense is just that good.
No matter what the Chicago Bulls get out of Derrick Rose, the offense is probably going to run through the frontcourt. Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are both fantastic distributors and incredibly versatile big men, and they'll be relied upon for plenty of touches in the half-court set. Asking Rose to play like he did during his MVP season a few years ago would just be foolish.
If McDermott proves that his nose for scoring opportunities wasn't just something that blossomed against lesser competition in the NCAA, that's yet another offensive element, one that takes pressure off Rose's shoulders and spreads out a defense even more.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Dion Waiters
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If you have a player who's naturally talented with the ball in his hands, thrives when he's given the opportunity to create his own shot and loves functioning as the leader of an offensive unit, where would you put him?
- Choice No. 1: In the starting lineup along with LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.
- Choice No. 2: Coming off the bench as a super sixth man, leading the charge with Matthew Dellavedova, Shawn Marion and Tristan Thompson.
That decision should be pretty obvious, as starting Dion Waiters is akin to minimizing his talents. Of course, that also relies on him accepting a decision to come off the bench, as there's an unneeded stigma surrounding any role with the second unit. It's not as though he'd be receiving any fewer minutes, and the ones he did play would become all the more important.
For some reason, starting a game is more important than spending time on the floor during the stretch run of a close game, at least from a mental standpoint. It's not like David Blatt will be leaving No. 3 on the pine during the last few minutes of a tight contest, even if Waiters is asked to begin the game with his warm-ups still on.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be dangerous no matter what. But they could be even more deadly if they handle Waiters in proper fashion.
Dallas Mavericks: Brandan Wright
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The Dallas Mavericks have to keep Tyson Chandler healthy throughout the year, as he's the centerpiece of a defense that will need to be surprisingly effective if the Mavs are going to earn a top seed in the brutal Western Conference. While there are plenty of quality backups at the 4, Brandan Wright is easily the best option to serve as the team's second-string center.
It's hard to remember, seeing as he's been in the league since 2007, but Wright is still going to be just 27 years old throughout the 2014-15 campaign. He's growing as a basketball player every year, figuring out how to use his lanky frame and athleticism in the most advantageous fashion.
Again, he just keeps getting slightly better as an offensive player each and every season. Last year, Wright managed to score 9.1 points per game while shooting a mind-boggling 67.7 percent from the field, both of which were career highs.
Can Wright maintain those numbers while playing more minutes? Can he keep growing on the defensive end of the court? Can he handle more responsibility when Chandler's health is under duress?
Those are all key questions for Dallas this season.
Denver Nuggets: JaVale McGee
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The Denver Nuggets are a deep team prepared to exceed the expectations of mediocrity by employing above-average contributors at each and every position. But even with Kenneth Faried set to build upon his stellar showing at the World Cup and Danilo Gallinari returning from his ACL injury, the X-factor has to be JaVale McGee.
Yes, "Pierre" himself. He of finger-mustache and Shaqtin' a Fool fame.
Timofey Mozgov and J.J. Hickson formed a working rotation at center while McGee was injured for the vast majority of the 2013-14 campaign, but neither possesses McGee's level of upside. When his head is screwed on straight and he's focused, few big men have a combination of raw talent, size and physical ability that can match his.
Then again, he doesn't always act like the sharpest tool in the shed.
McGee is still only 26 years old, and he possesses a skill set that complements the other bigs in the Denver rotation quite nicely. Though he doesn't space the court on offense, he's the rim protector who the Nuggets could use while trying to get over the hump and steal a playoff berth in the Western Conference.
Detroit Pistons: Josh Smith
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X-factors aren't usually established players with resumes like the one boasted by Josh Smith.
However, this particular forward hasn't played like he should in years, instead devolving into a floor-spacing small forward who, well, isn't a floor-spacing small forward. When Smith is at his best, he's showing off his athletic prowess on the defensive end of the court and attacking the rim at all times on offense, using his lefty post moves and jumping ability to wreak havoc on the opposition.
But with the Detroit Pistons that wasn't how he played.
Instead, he took 3.4 three-point attempts per game despite connecting at a 26.4 percent clip, and he rarely played to any of his many strengths. Few players in the NBA have exhibited a greater disparity between possible production and actual production.
Could that change under the tutelage of Stan Van Gundy?
If it does, the Pistons get significantly more dangerous. There's a lot of raw talent on this roster between Brandon Jennings, Smith, Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and the hordes of shooters Van Gundy signed during the hottest months of the year. Now, the season revolves around getting everything to fit together in proper fashion.
And that starts with Smith's role.
Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes
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Remember when Harrison Barnes was supposed to be a franchise centerpiece?
He's underwhelmed rather significantly ever since leaving Chapel Hill, but it's too soon to give up on his lofty potential. Once he can create shots for himself and shoot the ball more effectively, he'll begin living up to at least part of the hype, even if that hasn't happened during his first two go-rounds with the Golden State Warriors.
But imagine if that changed this year.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Warriors finished No. 4 in defensive rating and No. 12 in offensive rating during the 2013-14 campaign. Part of the blame lies with the now-fired Mark Jackson, whose lack of offensive creativity held back the immense amount of talent he had under his supervision. But there's also a need for one more high-quality scorer.
Why not Barnes?
No other player on the roster has this much untapped potential on the offensive end. Not Draymond Green, who's become an incredibly underrated and versatile contributor. Not Shaun Livingston, who should provide some backcourt stability off the bench. Not Brandon Rush or Nemanja Nedovic, both of whom could work into the rotation when healthy.
Houston Rockets: Isaiah Canaan
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Losing Jeremy Lin is going to hurt the Houston Rockets, though some of the lost production could be made up for by quality play from Isaiah Canaan.
In many ways, the Rockets don't need a traditional point guard—a player who's going to line up at the 1 and capably distribute the ball out to the scorers who surround him on the court. James Harden spends so much time with the ball in his hands, and he's a deft passer, even if his scoring often overshadows that facet of the game.
However, it's still nice to have one.
Patrick Beverley doesn't qualify as such. He's an awesome defender who provides more than enough value to justify a starting gig, but his passing is worse than lackluster.
According to passer rating, Beverley finished the 2013-14 season as the No. 92 passer in the NBA, at least among those who played at least 20 games and recorded five or more assist opportunities per game. Of the 135 players who qualified, Norris Cole, Beno Udrih, Ish Smith, Ray McCallum, C.J. Watson and Dennis Schroder were the only point guards with lower scores.
Canaan didn't qualify, but that's largely because he didn't need to. After all, he was stuck behind both Lin and Beverley in the rotation during his rookie season.
Will he fare particularly well this year? Probably not when looking solely at that metric, but he also does something that Beverley doesn't.
He can score the ball.
Indiana Pacers: Chris Copeland
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As Bleacher Report's Dan Favale explained on Twitter this offseason, it's time for the Indiana Pacers to play Chris Copeland more, especially now that Paul George will be missing the entire season.
For whatever reason, Frank Vogel basically refused to play Copeland until he had to, even though the long-haired forward fared quite well when he was given permission to step onto the court. During his 12 minimal appearances in the postseason, Copeland averaged 15.8 points per 36 minutes while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Indiana, now without both George and Lance Stephenson, desperately needs offense. So why not play a guy who has made the team better on that end of the floor whenever he's played?
According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Pacers scored 104.1 points per 100 possessions when Copeland was sitting on the bench during the regular season this past go-round. But when he stepped onto the floor, they scored 108.6 points over the same span.
And he was even more impactful during the postseason.
With Copeland on the bench, Indiana churned out only 102.1 points per 100 possessions. When he was playing? 119.3. That's a huge difference, even if it's also aided by small sample size and some garbage-time minutes.
It's time to play him.
Los Angeles Clippers: Ekpe Udoh
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The Los Angeles Clippers boast an impressive pair of starting big men. Blake Griffin is a top-10 guy in the Association, while DeAndre Jordan morphed into a high-caliber center under the tutelage of Doc Rivers. But beyond that?
That's where things get problematic.
The Clippers attempted to address the weakness of the second-unit frontcourt this offseason, presumably trying to keep Griffin and Jordan fresh for the most crucial part of the season, and they did so by signing a trio of players. Glen Davis and Spencer Hawes are known commodities, but it's Ekpe Udoh who still has some potential left unrealized.
The 27-year-old big man from Baylor has never received a consistent run during his brief NBA career, and it's abundantly clear when watching him that he can be an impact player, especially on the defensive end. As James Herbert noted for CBS Sports right after the signing was made official, that's what allows him to complement Hawes so well.
"As a minimum-salary signing, this is a steal for the Clippers," Herbert explained. "It addresses the team's most glaring need: interior defense. Udoh has been under the radar in a crowded Milwaukee Bucks rotation for the past few years, but he's a gifted pick-and-roll defender and rim protector."
Let's not forget that he averaged 13.9 points and 2.7 assists per game during his final collegiate season, though. There's some offense lying even further below the radar, and few coaches are more equipped to extract it than Rivers.
Los Angeles Lakers: Ed Davis
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Ed Davis has never gotten his fair shake in the NBA.
Going into his fifth season since leaving behind North Carolina, Davis has seen his minutes constantly decline after averaging 24.6 per game during his rookie campaign with the Toronto Raptors. And that really doesn't make any sense, as he's been a consistent per-minute contributor whose skill set has grown over the years.
This past season, he averaged 13.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Now, he's bringing his underrated and underrespected game to the Los Angeles Lakers, where he might finally have a chance to break out on a team that needs more featured players. Problem is, there's a huge crowd at power forward, and he'll be competing for minutes with Carlos Boozer, Julius Randle, Jordan Hill and Ryan Kelly.
Randle is the more exciting contributor, given his status as a rookie who was taken rather early in the 2014 draft proceedings. Boozer is the more established player.
But Davis is the unknown commodity—at least, unknown to the extent that we don't know how he'll fare when receiving more minutes. If he takes kindly to Byron Scott's style of play and meshes well with Kobe Bryant, he could justify his minimal salary and then some.
Plus, as Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley deftly explains, the Lakers can't really afford to leave Davis out.
Memphis Grizzlies: Vince Carter
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Vince Carter will turn 38 years old during the 2014-15 season, which will be the 17th season of his impressive career. Players like him normally don't qualify as X-factors, but this is an abnormal situation.
Carter's career has seen him undergo a massive transition, as he's made the switch from a superstar to a phenomenal role player, one who does the little things that make his team so much better. He no longer dominates the ball, but rather thrives as a spot-up shooter who can create on occasion but channels much of his energy into his defense.
That said, it was the Dallas Mavericks who allowed this transition to come to fruition.
He struggled—relatively—with the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns before joining forces with Rick Carlisle, and the role, teammates around him and coaching allowed him to thrive without that "superstar" label attached to his name.
Will that continue with the Memphis Grizzlies?
If it doesn't, the Grizz will remain mired in upper-level mediocrity for at least one more season. If it does, his shooting will open up new offensive possibilities, and his defense will fit right in with that grind-it-out mentality.
Again, it's strange for a veteran like Carter to be an X-factor, but that's his new role in Memphis.
Miami Heat: Danny Granger
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What does Danny Granger have left in the tank?
During the 2011-12 season, the sharpshooting small forward averaged 18.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game for the Indiana Pacers, shooting 41.6 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from downtown. But then, injuries struck.
Since that fairly impressive campaign, Granger has dealt with a never-ending stream of maladies. He played only five games during the ensuing season; then, this past year, he was limited to only 41 contests between his separate stints with the Pacers and Los Angeles Clippers.
He wasn't particularly effective in either location, nor did he receive an inordinate amount of playing time. But that could change now that he's getting a fresh start with the Miami Heat, who need offensive production to decrease Luol Deng's role and keep Dwyane Wade healthy throughout the year.
Granger won't be counted on to be a star. That would be a fruitless mission.
But if the Heat can rely on him for offensive production as a sixth man, they'll look a lot better when the final standings come out for the Eastern Conference.
Milwaukee Bucks: Everyone?
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It's impossible to choose a single player on the Milwaukee Bucks.
Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't really an X-factor at this point, largely because great things are expected of him from most people who have been paying even the slightest modicum of attention to his growth over the summer. Then again, he could break out as a sophomore and steer the Bucks well past the most optimistic projections.
Everyone on this roster seems to possess upside, whether it's Brandon Knight emerging as an upper-tier point guard, O.J. Mayo proving this past season was an aberration, Nate Wolters continuing to look like a second-round steal, Jabari Parker running away with Rookie of the Year, Larry Sanders reasserting himself as one of the best rim-protecting centers in the game, John Henson dropping the overlooked tag, Khris Middleton becoming more than a sharpshooter or Kendall Marshall proving his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers was no fluke.
*Gasps for air*
The Bucks have assembled this collection of talent with the intent that more than one player breaks out in a big way. They're essentially relying on everyone to justify his upside at some point in the future, which pretty much prevents there from being any one X-factor on the roster.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Bennett
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The stars are aligned for Anthony Bennett.
The oft-derided Cleveland Cavalier was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves during the offseason, and now everything is set up for him to succeed.
He's no longer going to be in the spotlight, as we're a full year removed from the surprising decision to take him at No. 1 in the 2013 NBA draft. Plus, he's even further away from the spotlight in Minnesota, which doesn't have as much national appeal, and it helps that he'll be the person of interest only when Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are both on the bench.
And that's not it.
If summer league was any indication, Bennett is in better shape than he was as a first-year player. There are no more nagging injuries to hinder him on the court, and he can finally play with confidence in his immense physical tools, which should drastically help out the overall mental game.
The Timberwolves don't really need production from him, but having it would be a nice luxury that could help them surprise a few teams in the Western Conference.
New Orleans Pelicans: A Backup Point Guard
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The New Orleans Pelicans have to find a way to keep Jrue Holiday healthy, and the emergence of a stellar backup point guard would do wonders in that regard.
Pinpointing which one is the top candidate is a tough task, though. And that's a good problem for the Pelicans to have, as there are multiple floor generals set to come off the pine and display their solid upside.
First is Russ Smith, a 23-year-old rookie out of Louisville who's looking to become a solid draft steal. Despite a Russdiculous collegiate career for the Cardinals, Smith fell to No. 47 in the 2014 selection process, largely because he's a small player—6'0" and 165 pounds.
If his time in the NCAA is any indication, though, he's going to find success. Smith routinely defied the odds, put his body on the line and managed to come through. As a senior, he even averaged 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game.
Another option is Austin Rivers, who is now far enough removed from the spotlight that he can start fulfilling the high expectations in relative obscurity. There were flashes of potential during a sophomore season that was miles better than his ineffective rookie campaign.
Plus, Jimmer Fredette signed with NOLA during the offseason, and he's still waiting for the right opportunity to showcase his offensive talent, even if he hasn't received a sufficient run during his still-young NBA career.
New York Knicks: Iman Shumpert
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That flattop alone should convince you.
Iman Shumpert just never clicked with Mike Woodson at the helm of the New York Knicks, but now he's getting a fresh start during the Derek Fisher era. It remains to be seen whether the triangle will suit his offensive talents, but there are too many skills laying dormant for him to remain stuck on the 'Bockers bench.
"So long as he can stay healthy, Shumpert's still-developing three-point stroke figures to be a boon to Derek Fisher's triangle offense—a system where Shumpert's propensity for overdribbling will hopefully be sequestered for good," writes Bleacher Report's Jim Cavan.
Thing is, Shumpert hasn't been too impressive since a strong start to his tenure with the Knicks. His shot has regressed, his defensive skills haven't been good enough to merit too much playing time (even if they're still good), and his overall game has failed to show much improvement.
Woodson didn't help that, but neither did Shumpert.
He's been jumped on the depth chart by Tim Hardaway Jr. and for good reason. Cleanthony Early might be gunning for a spot ahead of him in the rotation as well, but Shumpert can prove to the Knicks that he belongs on the court more often than not.
If he starts shooting the ball well and brings a tough defensive nature to the team whenever he receives a run, that will go a long way. Perhaps even into the postseason, though the Knicks still aren't a lock to play more than 82 games during the 2014-15 campaign.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeremy Lamb
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Is this the year Scott Brooks decides to play Jeremy Lamb?
Last season, the Connecticut product averaged 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from downtown. Problem was, those numbers were of the per-36-minute variety, and Lamb spent less than 20 minutes on the court during the average contest.
During the playoffs, Lamb was used even more infrequently.
The Thunder's model has revolved around internal development for years. It has to, as their three best players—Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka—all cash in rather large checks and eat up so much of the available cap space. But for that model to work, a coach has to show faith in some of his younger rotation members, giving them opportunities to grow and show off their skills.
Reggie Jackson has already established himself as a key contributor. Perry Jones and Steven Adams are both on the way up as well, but it's still Lamb who has the biggest gap between the role he's given and the one he's good enough to earn as soon as the 2014-15 campaign.
Orlando Magic: Evan Fournier
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There was a nine-game stretch during the 2013-14 season in which Evan Fournier averaged 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game for the Denver Nuggets while shooting above 50 percent from both the field and three-point range.
During a 15-game portion of the year shortly thereafter, he averaged 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.3 dimes per contest. His shooting wasn't as good, but he did manage to connect on 35.9 percent of his three-point attempts. Finally, Fournier produced 13.1 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists during the average outing over his last 10 games of the campaign.
There were stretches of impressive play, but they were usually surrounded by games in which Fournier would disappear and fall back out of the heavy portion of Brian Shaw's rotation. Nonetheless, the Orlando Magic saw enough in him that they made him the centerpiece of a deal that shipped Arron Afflalo back to the Mile High City.
Key above all else for Fournier was an ability to work off the dribble. He was no longer just a spot-up shooter, but rather a player who could take over as a de facto point guard and finish plays from any area of the half-court set.
If he can continue doing that, he'll take a lot of pressure off Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo.
Philadelphia 76ers: Nerlens Noel
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The Philadelphia 76ers pretty much fall into the same category as the Milwaukee Bucks, seeing as they're just overflowing with high-upside players.
However, there's one guy with such a wide range between floor and ceiling that he has to be featured here. That would be Nerlens Noel.
There's no guarantee the big man from Kentucky is ready to be a quality contributor. He's more than a year removed from playing in a competitive game that actually matters, as he was held out throughout the entire 2013-14 season to let his torn ACL heal fully. He's also a defensive specialist with a growing offensive game, which could make it harder for him to find playing time on the uptempo Sixers.
Then again, he looked pretty dominant during summer league action.
If Noel is swatting away shots, anchoring a formerly porous defense and providing offensive contributions out of sheer necessity, he could end up running away with Rookie of the Year. There's a pretty huge difference between winning that award during a strong year and ceding minutes to the combination of Brandon Davies, Arnett Moultrie and Henry Sims.
Both are legitimate possibilities during what figures to be a strange season for Philadelphia.
Phoenix Suns: Alex Len
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Who?
Oh yeah, that big man from Maryland who was the No. 5 pick only a year ago.
Alex Len faded completely out of the public consciousness in only a matter of months, as injuries derailed his rookie season before it ever got started. He didn't play more than three games in a row for the Phoenix Suns until January, and by then he was so far behind the learning curve that he couldn't make a big impact. Nor could he stay healthy even then.
Unfortunately, that trend continued this offseason, as a fractured pinky kept him from showing off against lesser competition at summer league. But he should be healthy at the start of the season—relatively healthy, at least—which will give him an opportunity to start fresh and become a rotational big.
The Suns are swamped with talent at most positions, no matter what happens with Eric Bledsoe. But center is the weakest of the bunch, with Miles Plumlee serving as a nondescript starting 5. If Len can take over his job, using his immense upside to do so, he might be the man who can help get Phoenix over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time in the post-Steve Nash era.
Portland Trail Blazers: C.J. McCollum
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The Portland Trail Blazers' bench was absolutely terrible last season.
Per HoopsStats.com, it averaged only 13.7 minutes per game, which was rather easily the lowest mark throughout the entire NBA. No team came within even a minute. And despite the typical tradeoff between volume and efficiency, Rip City still struggled immensely with the latter.
It finished dead last in offensive efficiency and No. 27 in defensive efficiency, which obviously isn't the best combination. That placed an inordinate amount of responsibility on the starters, especially Nicolas Batum and Damian Lillard, who both finished among the seven most-used players in the NBA over the course of the season, via Basketball-Reference.com.
So, who on the bench can change that?
Thomas Robinson, Meyers Leonard and C.J. McCollum are the best choices, but McCollum stands out because he has the most potential. Much like Alex Len, his rookie season was thrown off course by an early injury during the offseason, and he was unable to get back on track. And much like Len, he's been flying under the radar ever since.
A combo guard, McCollum should be able to spell both Lillard and Wesley Matthews, and tapping into that potential will allow him to move past Steve Blake in the rotation. While Blake is a quality player, he's not exactly going to win games single-handedly, which this Lehigh product has the ability to do every once in a while.
Sacramento Kings: Derrick Williams
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The sun hasn't completely set on Derrick Williams' career, even if he's never going to justify being made the No. 2 pick of the 2011 NBA draft.
"At 6'8", Williams has simply proved too small to consistently bang with today's prototypical power forwards," Cavan wrote while claiming Williams is one of nine notable players on the verge of basketball oblivion. "The only recourse, then, is to do what he should've done a long time ago: develop a consistent perimeter game, and redefine himself as a viable small forward option."
Is Williams really close to finding his career slipping away? Yep.
But Cavan's advice is also some that can actually be followed, especially for a player who was an opportunistic shooter back at Arizona, connecting from downtown at a 56.8 percent clip during his sophomore season before declaring for that 2011 draft.
Williams isn't a key piece for the Sacramento Kings anymore. He's buried on the depth chart and will likely have trouble earning major minutes at either forward position. But if he can develop that perimeter shot and help space the court for a frontcourt that really doesn't (or at least, really shouldn't) do much from around or behind the three-point arc, he'll be quite valuable.
Lest we forget, Williams is only 23 years old. He'd still be considered a late bloomer if he broke out in 2014-15, but there's plenty of time left before he starts losing his athletic tools.
San Antonio Spurs: Boris Diaw
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We saw exactly what the San Antonio Spurs could do with Boris Diaw as the X-factor throughout the last campaign, which just happened to finish with the French forward holding up the Larry O'Brien Trophy and earning the first championship of his career.
By the way, isn't that strange to think about? It feels as though every Spurs player should have three or four rings, especially one who played such a crucial part last year.
When Diaw is on his game, he does everything.
He can pick apart a defense with his passing and cerebral play, collect boards, bang around on the defensive end and even provide some scoring of his own. Diaw might not have won Finals MVP, but he played like one against the Miami Heat.
Why should anything change this year?
The Spurs are largely the same going into the 2014-15 season, and Diaw's role isn't changing. Picking him might be cheating, but that doesn't change the validity of the selection.
Toronto Raptors: James Johnson
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"We need a big wing at the 3 position," Toronto Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri explained to TSN.ca's Josh Lewenberg prior to the NBA draft, also revealing that he wanted to find a shot-blocking big man as well.
Enter James Johnson, who signed north of the border after spending the last season with the Memphis Grizzlies. Bruno Caboclo also qualifies as such, but it's too unlikely he plays a big role for him to qualify as an X-factor.
Yet.
At 6'9", Johnson is already the tallest wing player on the roster. Only DeAndre Daniels comes within an inch, as both Landry Fields and DeMar DeRozan are 6'7", while Terrence Ross is an inch shorter still. And that's saying nothing of their wingspans.
Daniels (7'2") trails only Caboclo (7'7"). But behind him are Johnson (7'0.75"), Fields (6'9.5"), DeRozan (6'9") and Ross (6'7.25"), per DraftExpress.com.
That's a pretty sizable gap between Johnson and those with shorter arms. So, why him and not Daniels? Well, he's the proven commodity, the player who can immediately be thrown out as a versatile contributor, athlete and defensive specialist.
Daniels, a rookie out of Connecticut who the Raptors added with the No. 37 pick, just isn't ready to make that type of impact.
Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert
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The World Cup provided all necessary justification.
Standing 7'1" with a monstrous wingspan, Rudy Gobert suited up for France during the tournament in Spain, and he was a key part of the effort that led to a bronze medal. Over the course of nine games, the center averaged 4.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.9 blocks per contest, shooting 72.7 percent from the field.
But when he was called upon for a challenging matchup with the big Spanish roster, he was arguably the MVP of that game.
He successfully stood up to the Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka, finishing with a stellar line and, even more importantly, a victory. Despite the difficult nature of his assignments, Gobert recorded five points, 13 rebounds, a steal and a block.
Sean Deveney of SportingNews.com was one of many to marvel at his performance:
"Gobert scored only five points, but his defensive presence and his rebounding — particularly in the tough fourth quarter, when he weathered foul trouble—were the keys to the French upset. Gobert had 13 rebounds in all, and though he was credited with just one blocked shot, he got his hand on at least three Spanish attempts in the fourth quarter alone, when France outscored Spain, 23-9, including a 10-run to close the game.
At one point, with France clinging to a 57-52 lead with less than two minutes to play, Gobert tapped an errant shot from Spain’s Juan Carlos Navarro to Mickael Gelabale, keeping Spain from a second possession on the play. That prompted ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla to declare, "Rudy Gobert has been an incredible force at the rim today."
"
Now it's time for him to take that momentum back across the pond.
Washington Wizards: Otto Porter
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Notice a common theme yet?
So many X-factors this year are sophomore players who underwhelmed as rookies. The 2013 draft class wasn't exactly a star-studded one, but it shouldn't have been historically bad. Now that the 2014 class is drawing all the headlines, the previous iteration is flying well underneath the radar, ready to break out and fill the league with more quality contributors.
Such is the case for Otto Porter, who should thrive in his role behind Paul Pierce for the Washington Wizards. Injuries prevented him from gaining any momentum as a first-year player, but the forward looked both healthy and effective during summer league.
According to NBA.com, he averaged 19.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, shooting 48.4 percent from the field, 38.9 percent beyond the arc and 68.2 percent at the charity stripe. He won't post numbers like those during the regular season, but there's no doubt he belongs at this level, and contributions from him will make the Wizards all the more dangerous.
Porter was largely heralded as an NBA-ready player when he left Georgetown, lending credence to the belief injuries were the primary culprit last year. Now we get to see if that's correct.
