Projecting the Contract Value for the Top 10 NBA Free Agents This Offseason
The latest edition of the NBA's annual free-agent bonanza is shaping up to be both bonkers and boring by comparison.
On the one hand, the rules of the league's new collective bargaining agreement should yield a handful of contracts that dwarf the NBA-record $153 million deal Mike Conley signed with the Memphis Grizzlies. That group of yet-to-be-signed pacts figures to include at least one approaching (if not exceeding) $200 million over five years.
On the other, there won't be the same run on free agents in 2017 that we saw in 2016. While this year's class is much stronger and deeper overall than the one that Conley, Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan and Al Horford headlined last summer, the market itself is significantly drier.
The salary is going up—to a projected $99 million—but not as much as previously expected and certainly not to the degree that it skyrocketed last offseason. Only a handful of clubs have relatively clear paths to max-contract space, but some (i.e. the Golden State Warriors) have incumbent free agents to take care of while others (i.e. the Sacramento Kings, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns) don't seem ready to commit to expensive veterans.
For the best free agents, though, the money should flow rather freely, be it from bona fide contenders or teams desperate to become or stay relevant. Here's a look at what the top 10 names in this year's group might make.
10. George Hill, Point Guard, Utah Jazz
1 of 10
This past season, the Utah Jazz offered George Hill an extension that would've bumped his 2016-17 salary up by about $13.6 million and tacked on an additional three years for nearly $75 million, per ESPN's Tim MacMahon. He turned it down.
Now, he'll hit the open market in search of a longer, more lucrative pact, be it with the Jazz or another interested suitor.
In some respects, Hill is worth the squeeze, especially in Salt Lake City. During his lone season with the Jazz, he averaged a career-high 16.9 points on 47.7 percent shooting (40.3 percent from three) while giving Utah's young group a steady presence at the point on both ends.
The downside, though, is difficult to ignore. He missed 33 regular-season games—the second time in the last three seasons he's sat out at least that many times—and was sidelined during the second round of the playoffs by a toe injury. At 31, Hill's body is a risk to break down even further and take his game with it.
The biggest domino here, though, may be Gordon Hayward (more on him later). If Hayward stays, Utah may be inclined to pony up for its incumbent point guard. Otherwise, the team might not be keen to keep Hill, which would leave his future in the hands of teams with cap constraints.
Projected Contract: Three years, $60 million
9. Serge Ibaka, Power Forward, Toronto Raptors
2 of 10
Like George Hill in Utah, Serge Ibaka's future with the Toronto Raptors could be tethered to another player on this list. As ESPN's Zach Lowe wrote back in May, there may be no point in Toronto's paying Ibaka if Kyle Lowry isn't around anymore.
He might not be a keeper anyway, given where his game is headed.
"Ibaka is trending the wrong way. He's a good spot-up shooter, but opponents still mostly leave him open. He doesn't have the sort of gravitational pull that changes the geometry of the floor. His defense has fallen off. He can't post up, and he still has zero playmaking skills. Pass him the ball in open space, and the music stops. He holds the ball, the scrambled defense resets itself, and every window closes."
That being said, there's still a lot for teams to like about Ibaka. Few players in the league can boast his combination of three-point shooting (39.1 percent from deep last season) and shot blocking (2.4 per game for his career). And at 27, Ibaka should have some good years left in his 6'10" frame.
In the right role, on the right team, he might still be a difference-maker, even if he wasn't able to shift the balance of power between Toronto and Cleveland in this year's playoffs.
Projected Contract: Four years, $84 million
8. Jrue Holiday, Point Guard, New Orleans Pelicans
3 of 10
In a crowded market for point guards, Jrue Holiday doesn't have to search far and wide for the payday he wants. The New Orleans Pelicans might not have much choice but to meet his demands.
At present, the Pels would be hard-pressed to clear more than $14 million in cap space. In this day and age, that's barely enough to land a veteran role player, let alone a point guard capable of placating Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.
The jury is still out as to whether Holiday is that guy. His shooting percentages plummeted after the All-Star break (42.6 percent from the field, 30.1 percent from three) when Cousins landed in the Crescent City.
Still, he's the best bet the Pelicans have of putting a competitive product on the floor—one good enough to convince Cousins to stay when he hits free agency next summer.
As ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on a recent edition of the Lowe Post podcast (h/t The Bird Writes), the Pels are "prepared to spend, from what I understand. I think ownership understands the point in time they are with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Even if you don’t look at him as a $30 million point guard, he’s about to head there from what I understand; it will be very close."
Good luck finding another team outside of Louisiana that has the need for a floor general, the cap room to attract Holiday and the stomach to match his asking price.
Projected Contract: Five years, $150 million
7. Danilo Gallinari, Small Forward, Denver Nuggets
4 of 10
To hear Danilo Gallinari talk about the Denver Nuggets and free agency, it doesn't sound like his future is tied to the Mile High City.
"Nuggets are not my first choice, but they are exactly at the same level of the other teams," he recently told Premium Sport, according to a translation by Sportando. "Denver’s advantage is that they can offer me a five-year contract while other franchises can offer me a four-year deal. Nuggets are at the same level of the others."
Denver has held the line publicly about wanting to bring Gallinari back, but at what cost? The Nuggets aren't short on scoring wing-forwards. They still have Wilson Chandler and Will Barton under contract and added Syracuse sophomore Tyler Lydon in this year's draft.
As far as the market at large is concerned, Gallo may have to wait for Gordon Hayward (more on him shortly) and Paul George to come off the board. Even then, the few teams out there with the requisite cap space to sign him might think twice about forking over their futures to someone who hasn't played more than 71 games in a season since 2009-10.
Then again, quality players at Gallinari's position don't grow on trees. Could a club that whiffs on Hayward turn to the 28-year-old Italian as its Plan B?
Projected Contract: Four years, $105 million
6. Paul Millsap, Power Forward, Atlanta Hawks
5 of 10
Paul Millsap has already opted out of his contract with the Atlanta Hawks. The team's decision to hit the reset button, by sending Dwight Howard to Charlotte in what amounted to a salary dump, seemed to signal that Millsap's days in the ATL are done.
The four-time All-Star should find a robust market for his services this summer. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Chris Vivlamore, Millsap could draw interest from as many as eight suitors come July 1. Among the potential patrons: the Denver Nuggets, who have their sights set on just about every available power forward, per multiple reports.
That kind of interest is more than warranted. Millsap has fashioned himself into one of the more productive two-way players at his position. He's coming off a campaign in which he posted career highs in points (18.1) and assists (3.7).
But his three-point percentage has dipped significantly over the past two seasons. A player of Millsap's age (32) might normally have to expect less than the max, especially in a league where cap space is no longer so abundant.
Still, if the market for Millsap's services is as robust as it seems to be, he'll have a handsome payday to celebrate soon.
Projected Contract: Four years, $120 million
5. Kyle Lowry, Point Guard, Toronto Raptors
6 of 10
Kyle Lowry's level of interest in returning to the Toronto Raptors may be more than zero, but that doesn't mean he's destined to stay north of the border.
"I’ve heard he wants out, like, yesterday," a league executive told Sportsnet's Michael Grange. "From an agent and a player."
But where, pray tell, could Lowry go if he's as keen to compete for a ring as he says he is?
The Houston Rockets are out of the picture now that they have Chris Paul sharing a backcourt with James Harden. The Philadelphia 76ers, Lowry's hometown team, don't need to spend beaucoup bucks on a point guard after drafting Washington's Markelle Fultz.
According to Sporting News' Mitch Lawrence, the Minnesota Timberwolves could make a play for Lowry, presumably after they (finally) move Ricky Rubio.
Wherever Lowry lands, he'll likely have to take less than the max—perhaps significantly so—on account of his age (31), injury history and poor postseason track record.
Then again, as the saying goes, it only takes one...errrr...jerk to ruin it for everyone. Barring that, Lowry should still get paid plenty, just not as much as the best player on a perennial playoff contender might otherwise expect in this day and age.
Projected Contract: Four years, $120 million
4. Gordon Hayward, Small Forward, Utah Jazz
7 of 10
Gordon Hayward might have the most difficult decision of any major free agent this summer.
Does he take more money over more years to stay with a Utah Jazz squad with which he's developed into an All-Star and that he's helped turn into a budding contender out West? Or does he flee to the East, where he can dodge the Golden State Warriors—for a while, at least—while forming a superteam in, say, Boston under Brad Stevens, his collegiate head coach at Butler?
Wherever Hayward winds up, he'll be looking to make his decision in short order. According to the Salt Lake Tribune's Tony Jones, Hayward has already scheduled meetings with the Miami Heat on Saturday and the Jazz on Monday. He'll presumably fit in a sit-down with the Celtics at some point therein, as well.
Beyond his connection with Stevens, Hayward will have ample reason to consider Beantown's pitch. According to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, the Celtics plan to sign him and then turn their attention to acquiring Paul George from the Indiana Pacers. That would give Boston four All-Stars, along with Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford, with whom to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers and Warriors atop the league's hierarchy.
The Jazz will have the last word, but good luck to general manager Dennis Lindsey in his attempt to formulate a more appealing pitch than Danny Ainge's in Boston and Pat Riley's in Miami.
Projected Contract: Four years, $130 million
3. Blake Griffin, Power Forward, Los Angeles Clippers
8 of 10
In the expanding scale of NBA time, it feels like forever ago that The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote this about Blake Griffin:
"The sense I’ve gotten over the past month from chatting with agents and front-office executives is that it would be shocking if the Clippers offered Griffin the full five-year max contract, valued around $170 million. The Clippers’ caution would be understandable. Griffin has been hampered by an endless list of injuries over his career. Offering all that guaranteed money would be a monumental investment carrying tremendous risk."
Chris Paul's exit to Houston figures to change that calculus, even if Griffin's body makes him a risky investment. According to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne, the Clippers "are focused on retaining Blake Griffin in free agency." He's their last, best chance to remain competitive both in a market where the Los Angeles Lakers are on the rise and in a league where the Golden State Warriors reign supreme.
"Nobody’s going to beat these guys for a couple years if they stay healthy. They're not," Jerry West said during his introductory press conference as the Clippers' newest consultant. "That’s our job, to beat the Warriors, because that’s the standard that every team in the league has to look at today."
It's a standard L.A. would be hard-pressed to meet even with Griffin but one they might never so much as sniff without him. The Clippers could have to give him the full boat, though that's still no guarantee he won't strongly consider a shorter, less lucrative contract with a readymade contender elsewhere.
Projected Contract: Five years, $170 million
2. Stephen Curry, Point Guard, Golden State Warriors
9 of 10
Two years ago, Stephen Curry told Jimmy Spencer, then with Sporting News, that "free agency isn’t really appealing to me because I love where I’m at, love the organization I’m playing for, and the Bay Area is home for me and my family."
Two more Finals appearance, another MVP and another championship later, Curry's roots in Northern California have only deepened. The Warriors are set to be title contenders for the foreseeable future, with Kevin Durant (more on him in a bit), Klay Thompson and Draymond Green holding the fort.
Team owner Joe Lacob, for his part, has made it clear that "We're going to do whatever it takes to keep Steph here and happy," as he told the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami. That likely includes ponying up to offer Curry a super-max contract this summer.
He's certainly earned it. Without Curry, the Warriors might still be stuck in their decades-long doldrums. Instead, they're flying high while the rest of the league is giving desperate (perhaps futile) chase.
Projected Contract: Five years, $200 million
1. Kevin Durant, Small Forward, Golden State Warriors
10 of 10
The Warriors have gone out of their way to accommodate Kevin Durant—from unloading core players on their 2015 title-winning team to fit him under their cap in free agency, to shifting some of their offense away from their incumbent MVP (Stephen Curry) toward their new one (Durant).
Now, it looks as though KD, his championship and Finals MVP in tow, is going to return the favor. According to ESPN's Chris Haynes, Durant intends to take less than his absolute max so that Golden State can re-sign its other key free agents, including Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston. Likewise, per ESPN's Marc Stein, Durant plans to wait until after the Warriors have finished conducting the rest of their cap-related business before putting pen to paper (or iPad) in Oakland.
As Vice Sports' Michael Pina laid out, Golden State can use its non-Bird rights to exceed the cap and bring back Durant at 120 percent of his previous salary. That would put his 2017-18 take at $31.8 million. Add an 8 percent raise on an option year in 2018-19, and Durant could either return for a cool $34.3 million or jump back on the market next summer to ink a more monstrous extension.
Projected Contract: Two years, $66 million
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
.png?w=600 "New Mock with Lottery Odds Locked In 🔮")
