Free-Agency Rankings: Top Available Power Forwards
Post-up power forwards used to get paid in NBA free agency.
Not anymore.
In fact, if a scoring 4 wants to cash in nowadays, he'd better be doing the bulk of his damage from beyond the arc.
Oh, and he'd also better be able to guard ball-handlers on switches. And move the ball. And defend the rim.
That's the ideal version of a modern 4, anyway, and it's difficult to find one who meets all of those demands.
Those who come closest fare well in our rankings, though it's notable that the one getting the top grade has more than a few throwback qualities mixed in with new-age skills. Age and health also factor into our rankings.
Finally, only players who spent most of their minutes at the 4 last year, according to Basketball Reference, will qualify. So even if guys like Kelly Olynyk or Pau Gasol have logged plenty of time at both frontcourt positions in the past, their longer stints at center in 2016-17 mean they'll have to wait until we cover free-agent 5s.
Honorable Mention
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David West, Golden State Warriors
West will turn 37 before the start of next season, and the limited minutes his age dictates (he saw just 12.6 per game with the Warriors this year) means he's only of value to specific clubs—title-chasing elites with a need for toughness, passing and mid-range shooting off the bench.
A terrific passer, West truly blossomed as a facilitator in the Warriors' spaced-out offense. He posted an assist rate of 24.1 percent, which ranked seventh in the league among big men in 2016-17. Within that top seven, only Nikola Jokic posted a higher effective field-goal percentage than West's 54.2.
Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies
Z-Bo is the prototypical old-school 4, but age and the changing times pushed him away from the bucket with everyone else. He took 29.1 percent of his shots within three feet this year, the lowest rate of his 16-year career.
He can't guard anyone, but he still averaged 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in only 24.5 minutes per game.
Ersan Ilyasova, Atlanta Hawks
Ilyasova has been on 17 teams (OK, it's only five) over the past two years, but he always knocks down threes and can hold his own on defense because he's willing to take a charge.
At 29 and boasting a career 36.6 percent accuracy rate from long range, Ilyasova will draw interest from several teams.
10. Taj Gibson, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Age: 31
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $8,950,000
It shouldn't have been a surprise when Taj Gibson fit so well with the Oklahoma City Thunder after coming over in a trade from the Chicago Bulls. His physicality, defensive versatility and grimy professionalism would play well anywhere.
Still, slotting into the starting unit midway through the season and contributing to a team-best plus-11.8 net rating (among five-man groupings that logged at least 100 minutes for OKC) is impressive.
Because Gibson's no-frills game translates to any system, the capped-out Thunder must contend with 29 other teams that probably feel the same way general manager Sam Presti does.
"Gibson gave us experience and a ruggedness to the team," Presti said, according to Erik Horne of the Oklahoman. "He's one of those guys that you see for years and you go, 'I would like that guy to wear a Thunder jersey at some point here.'"
Though he's getting up there in age and has never established himself as a long-range shooter, Gibson contributes to winning in enough ways to draw major interest.
9. Amir Johnson, Boston Celtics
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Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $12,000,000
The advanced metrics love Amir Johnson, who ranks second among free-agent power forwards in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus and third overall at the position in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
No stat is perfect, and the Boston Celtics shuttling Johnson in and out of their postseason first units to hide him against bad matchups speaks to his fitness as a spot-use player. But when Draymond Green and Anthony Davis are the only guys who grade out better than you defensively (again, by one metric), you're probably doing something right.
Johnson has actually shot the ball efficiently from deep (career 34 percent), but he's never taken more than 66 in a season. Maybe if he winds up in a more freewheeling system—or one that doesn't have many better long-range options—he'll up his volume.
Other than some possible perimeter shooting upside, Johnson, already 30, is what he is: a stout defensive big who needs to be spoon-fed on offense and probably shouldn't see the floor against smaller, quicker opponents.
8. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2016-17 Salary: $5,782,450
It's a little early in the game for Nikola Mirotic to start becoming a specialist, and when teams come calling with offers this summer, they'll do it with hopes that the 26-year-old's narrowing spectrum of contributions was the result of the odd situation in Chicago.
Mirotic's free-throw, assist and usage rates declined for the third straight year in 2016-17, while his three-point-attempt rate spiked to a career high. With ball-dominant guards galore and limited shooting to space the court, maybe Mirotic becoming a stand-around chucker wasn't his decision.
Maybe it was the role he'd been asked to play, and maybe he was uncomfortable playing it. That was an easy conclusion to draw when watching Mirotic pump fake invisible defenders during perplexing bouts of indecision.
It's concerning when a player with real talent and a demonstrated ability to leverage it for long stretches (see: the month of March, every year) loses his dynamism.
If he competes on defense and acts decisively when the ball finds its way to him on the perimeter (either fire away or take it to the hole; no hesitation), Mirotic profiles as a starting stretch 4 on several teams.
Restricted status means the Bulls can match any offers for him, though it's hard to avoid rooting for a breakup. It seems like a change of scenery could do Mirotic some good.
7. Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $6,050,000
This was a complicated season for the Toronto Raptors.
The summary: a historic offensive start, DeMar DeRozan piling up 30-point games, Kyle Lowry playing like a superstar, a blockbuster trade, a Lowry injury and a post-break identity switch toward defense-first principles.
But there was some simplicity mixed in if you looked in the right places.
Example: The Raps were 42-23 when Patrick Patterson played and just 9-8 when he didn't.
That squares with the staggering on-off data that showed Patterson made Toronto exactly 10 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the court. Individual net ratings are noisy, but you can't overlook Patterson's plus-10.9 on-court net rating—the best among rotation Raptors.
Broaden the scope beyond Toronto, and you'll see Patterson ranked fifth in RPM among free agents at his position.
Maybe averages of 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game don't scream "big contract," but Patterson's career 36.8 percent stroke from three, better-than-average defense and contributions on the margins (which show up in his impressive advanced metrics) make him a potential steal.
6. James Johnson, Miami Heat
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Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $4,000,000
If James Johnson were coming off his 2016-17 season at age 26, he might be in line for a max offer—not necessarily because his numbers leapt screaming off the stat sheet, but because he produced them in precisely the type of role so many teams are desperate to fill.
But Johnson is 30, and his breakout campaign—complete with stretches ranging from pick-and-roll ball-handler to post defender against centers—feels like the result of forces that may not be easily replicated. He made it to Miami at the right time, got into terrific shape and balled out for a team that lost several key bodies to injury...and he did it in a contract year.
Expecting a repeat at Johnson's age is risky. Anticipating improvement is a flat-out mistake.
He was basically a more athletic, much meaner version of Boris Diaw. That doesn't come along often, and Johnson hasn't shown the ability to sustain that rare level of play yet.
Still, he averaged 12.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and one steal in 2016-17. Only five other players put up lines like that in 2016-17: Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, Al Horford and Marc Gasol.
A team could easily pay huge dollars for stats like the ones Johnson put up last year. The more likely scenario is a two- or three-year deal worth $12-15 million annually—with the chance for those terms to be a serious bargain if Johnson comes close to last year's efforts.
5. JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2016-17 Salary: $980,431
Whereas Johnson's defining trait is his versatility, JaMychal Green makes his impact as more of a niche commodity.
That Green ranks ahead of Johnson says all you need to know about how valuable Green's more specific contributions are.
A solid defender who rebounds well despite being undersized at his position, Green also shot 37.9 percent from long range last year. And with his relative youth leaving more room for developing secondary skills on the side—maybe some playmaking, a more diverse array of finishes inside—it's easy to slot him in the top five.
The most immediate area of growth must come in Green's scoring volume. Despite a terrific conversion rate from deep, he only attempted 1.9 triples per game. It's not easy to sustain efficiency with added volume, but that's a line Green must walk if he wants to make an even bigger difference.
4. Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Player option
2016-17 Salary: $15,050,000
It's strange to see Danilo Gallinari here, but he played 62 percent of his minutes at the 4 last season. Couple that with the waning mobility that makes him vulnerable defending virtually any wing, and it's clear Gallo is now a power forward.
And he's a good one.
Offensively, Gallinari is still quick and crafty enough to victimize opposing bigs. If the other team has a more conventional 4 on him, Gallo feasts off the dribble. Utilizing odd timing and skillful foul-drawing moves, he's too much to handle for defenders unused to perimeter duties. A career 37 percent shooter from distance (38.9 percent in 2016-17), Gallinari is also too dangerous for opponents to sag off.
Though incessant injury troubles have cost him 71 games over the past three years, Gallinari is the first guy we've hit whom you'd trust as a No. 1 offensive option—at least for stretches.
Behind plenty of threes and free throws, he's averaged over 18 points per game in each of the last two seasons.
3. Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors
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Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $12,250,000
As his explosiveness continues its disappearing act, Serge Ibaka's other weaknesses—terrible court sense, no real post game and zero ability to find open shooters when rolling to the hoop—are standing out more starkly.
Still, a floor-stretching big man who's been good for at least 1.5 blocks per game in each of the last seven seasons remains extremely valuable.
Even if he's increasingly ground-bound and can't suffocate opposing guards on D when switching, Ibaka has quietly gone from good to great as a three-point shooter (39.1 percent in 2016-17). So unlike other bigs who can't stay effective when their athleticism departs, there's a clear path forward for an aging Ibaka: He could just become Channing Frye with more defensive impact*.
It'll be fascinating to see what the Raptors do with Ibaka's free agency. He's not a max player, but his ability to play center in small lineups easily makes him the most valuable commodity we've listed so far.
*Because you cannot have less defensive impact than Frye.
2. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 32
Free-Agency Status: Player option
2016-17 Salary: $20,072,033
Free agents this old are scary, and to be totally honest, Paul Millsap's age is the only reason he's not our top-ranked option.
But while his stubborn refusal to decline in his early 30s suggests he'll be worth max money in the first season or two of a multiyear deal, it's too hard to see him playing All-Star ball and ranking as one of the best defensive players in the league at the end of a long-term pact, when he moves into his late 30s.
Inking him at the max on a short-term contract would be a no-brainer.
In 2016-17, Millsap ranked 13th overall in RPM, trailing only Draymond Green at his position. He posted career highs in points (18.1) and assists (3.7) while producing a free-throw rate higher than any since his days as a one-dimensional banger underneath...way back in 2008-09.
Millsap has said he'll probably opt out but has made it clear he prefers to stick with the Atlanta Hawks, who bravely didn't trade him at the deadline.
Any team in need of leadership, defense and productive professionalism should throw two-year max deals at Millsap. Chances are, he'll sign on with the club bold enough to offer four years.
1. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Early termination option
2016-17 Salary: $20,140,838
Blake Griffin, five-time All-Star and four-time All-NBA stud, comes with risks galore.
It's getting easier to list the extremities that haven't been operated on. Multiple knee surgeries, a quad, a hand and now a toe have all put Griffin in the OR. As a result, his once-breathtaking athleticism is now pedestrian. And Griffin's defense has never been much better than passable, a designation he must now work harder to maintain without elite bounce or quickness.
All that said, we know Griffin (or at least the pre-injury version last season) can be the focal point of a good offense. Because when Chris Paul has missed his share of time in recent seasons, Griffin has had opportunities to run things without the world's best point guard—and he's excelled.
With Paul off the floor last year, Griffin actually shot the ball more efficiently while dramatically upping his assist and rebound averages per possession. He did this while not notably increasing his turnover rate.
Station Griffin at the elbow, give him the ball and surround him with shooters. The offense will run smoothly; we've seen it. Paul makes everyone better, but the idea that Griffin needs CP3 is flawed.
Maxing Griffin out requires trust in his skill development and belief in his evolution, which is warranted in light of his shooting and passing growth during an early athletic decline. Despite rarely dunking anymore, Griffin continues finding ways to be effective.
It'll also require praying for his health.
Signing Griffin to a long deal is a gamble, but it's one worth taking because of his demonstrated stardom and potential for further growth. He's not going to get better, but he's spent the past couple of seasons figuring out how to stay very good.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
