The Biggest Potential 2017 NBA Trade-Deadline Steals
From avid mall-goers to broke frat bros, almost everyone is on the hunt for life's best bargains—including NBA trade-deadline buyers.
Partaking in the Association's annual February swap meet is no small task. Sellers are typically looking to glean the most value possible from their assets—particularly when they're peddling All-Stars. It's a scary and competitive world for teams on the prowl for substantial upgrades.
Every so often, though, a dreamlike scenario reveals itself, allowing the league's foremost deadline patrons to snag quality talent for below-market rates.
Such one-sided deals are born from a multitude of circumstances and aligned stars. Player performances figure into shaping the surrounding factors, but it's contract situations, roster makeups and team directions that most determine whether a helpful talent has to be sold at a reduced rate.
Remember: This is not a comprehensive list of the top trade options. It's a breakdown of those who best blend availability and potential cost with eventual impact ahead of the NBA's Feb. 23 deadline.
Honorable Mentions
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Andrew Bogut, Dallas Mavericks
Andrew Bogut's $11 million expiring salary should be hot property, even as he copes with hamstring issues. But the Dallas Mavericks have played themselves back into playoff contention, winning nine of their last 12 tilts.
Just two games separate them from the No. 8 seed in the woefully wacky Western Conference, so it feels unlikely they'll send Bogut packing without receiving first-round compensation.
Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves
We know the Minnesota Timberwolves are shopping Shabazz Muhammad, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. We also know there are scores of buyers who could use the scorching-hot three-point clip he's posted over the last month (51.1 percent since Jan. 6).
But Muhammad has yet to develop into a plus defender or reliable passer. Combine that with Zach LaVine's ACL tear opening the minutes gate in Minnesota, plus the raise Muhammad will command in restricted free agency, and his relocation will be more properly priced than steeply discounted.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
Nerlens Noel is playing well for the Philadelphia 76ers. Despite missing most of the season, he has saved them more points on the defensive end than anyone not named Robert Covington and Joel Embiid, according to NBA Math. And he's upped the ante as a pick-and-roll finisher.
Keeping him with Embiid for the long haul is a tantalizing proposition, but the Sixers still have the futures of Richaun Holmes, Ersan Ilyasova (free agent this summer), Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric and Ben Simmons to consider. Doling out the money it'll take to keep Noel in restricted free agency may be overkill unless a frontcourt fire sale predates his next contract.
Philly could end up moving him to simplify matters. His play gives general manager Bryan Colangelo some leverage in negotiations, but the market for his services is fairly bare, according to Philly.com's Keith Pompey—great news for Noel enthusiasts.
Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
Nikola Vucevic, like almost everyone else on the Orlando Magic roster, is still up for grabs, according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney. Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka arguably render him expendable, but he's been the team's most consistent big.
Orlando also has to factor in Ibaka's eventual foray into free agency. Shipping him elsewhere is the more urgent endeavor if the Magic don't want to hand him max money over the offseason.
Ibaka won't garner a monstrous return as an imminent flight risk, and Biyombo's value is nonexistent.
But Vucevic's sub-$12 million salary is a steal under the elevated salary cap, and he's signed through 2018-19 without an escape clause. All Vucevic trade scenarios have to end with Orlando's securing an adequate premium.
Thabo Sefolosha, Atlanta Hawks
Thabo Sefolosha should have his own rung on the top-10 ladder because of how much better the Atlanta Hawks look with him on the floor.
Two other wings have saved as many points on the defensive side as Sefolosha, according to NBA Math: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. And this, mind you, is with Sefolosha's sitting out since Jan. 27 as he tends to a groin injury.
Atlanta can only demand so much for a 32-year-old on an expiring contract, and there's always the chance he'll stay put at a slight discount in his next pact. If the Hawks are going to trade him, they'll scrap and claw for as much as possible—making it less likely that Sefolosha will be picked up on the cheap.
10. Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
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A quick scan of the Magic's roster yields no untouchable talent. Most of the team's assets have a case for below-market appeal, since Orlando has failed—fantastically so—to drive up the value of its most important pieces.
Mario Hezonja is an extreme case of the Magic's stalled rebuild. He's gone from a potential building block to sporadically used afterthought before wrapping up his sophomore season.
Almost all of his numbers are down from last year, and head coach Frank Vogel won't guarantee him an everyday spot in the rotation despite Orlando's desperate need for depth on the wings. It doesn't take an expert code-cracker to read in between the lines.
Sure enough, at the end of December, ESPN.com's Marc Stein added Hezonja to the list of Magic players expected to be available leading up to the trade deadline.
At 6'8", Hezonja has the build to play both forward spots. His defensive awareness is suboptimal, but he has the lateral mobility to improve and will enjoy more overall success when he doesn't need to spend so much time at shooting guard in Orlando's clumpy rotation.
Potential suitors will pounce on the opportunity to nab a top-five prospect with two years left on his rookie-scale contract, but they just won't fork over prime-time assets given Hezonja's shaky shooting (29.2 percent from deep this season) and diminished role.
Unless Hezonja is part of a larger deal including more players, any trade the Magic make will fall firmly under the sell-low umbrella. They're in no position to ask for anything more.
9. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
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Nikola Mirotic continues to be the stretch 4 who isn't.
Might that change as a member of another team? The Chicago Bulls are apparently willing to let curious admirers find out. Sources told the Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley the front office is actively shopping Mirotic.
Perhaps this has something to do with his irritating Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade, according to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson. Or maybe it's because he's shooting under 32 percent from deep for the second time in his three-season career.
Whatever the motivation, Chicago's attempts to move Mirotic aren't being met by hungry eyes.
"Obviously, you knew that would be the case with [Rajon] Rondo," Cowley's source said. "But [the Bulls] don't like what they're hearing back on [Mirotic], either. Then again, that's a [front office] that tends to overvalue its assets."
Holding on to Mirotic in light of tepid interest isn't an appealing option. He will enter restricted free agency this summer, at which time he'll field offer sheets worth substantially more per year than the $7.2 million he's on the books for next season. There's incentive for Chicago to sell low.
Another offense that doesn't rank dead last in three-point attempts and success rate will extract more production out of Mirotic. He shoots 36.8 percent on wide-open triples and put down 41.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys in 2015-16.
Stick him on a contender that can space the floor, and he's a low-cost acquisition who can tip the scales of an entire playoff series.
8. Shelvin Mack, Utah Jazz
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Shelvin Mack is "most definitely" available, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. And you know he'll come cheaply when the asset-strapped Cleveland Cavaliers are flashing interest.
It's not like Mack would ever command a lucrative return: The Utah Jazz gave up a second-round pick for him last season, and he's a career 32.3 percent shooter from beyond the arc.
His value is even lower ahead of this year's trade deadline. He will hit the open market this summer and has fallen out of head coach Quin Snyder's rotation over the last 10 games—an inevitability with Dante Exum and George Hill both on the roster.
Mack has outlived his purpose in Utah, more than anything. That's different than saying he can't make an impact on the offensive end. Mack keyed an offensive revival after arriving last February: The Jazz scored like a top-seven machine with him the game, pumping in 106.6 points per 100 possessions.
Imagine getting that value in a backup or starting placeholder for a second-round pick or low-end second-stringer.
The Jazz could decide to keep him for postseason depth, but teams can bait them with a pair of second-round choices—a scenario in which they'll still come out on top.
7. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
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Dwindling potential meets total irrelevance in the case of Brandon Knight.
On the one hand, the Phoenix Suns can play the developmental card with their 25-year-old. He averaged 19.6 points and 5.1 assists per game last season while sustaining near-average accuracy from downtown (34.2 percent). He's also in the second go-round of a five-year, $70 million pact that looks more than reasonable in the new salary-cap climate.
On the flip side, Knight has played his way out of the Suns' big picture. His shooting percentages have never been lower, he struggles to execute the most basic pick-and-rolls and he's not a defensive difference-maker.
No player in the NBA has a worse plus-minus (minus-314)—a rock-bottom finish that says more about Knight's current strife than Phoenix's second unit. Alex Len has the second-worst mark of the backups, and it's more than 70 points better (minus-241) than Knight's score.
Unsurprisingly, "nobody" wants to trade for him, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. But that only means the Suns aren't getting high-end first-round goodies for his services.
Packages built around some combination of late first-rounders, second-round choices, flier prospects and short-term contracts create grounds for serious conversation. Phoenix doesn't sound like a team that wants to move Eric Bledsoe, per Lowe, and Knight's role will be forever slashed with Devin Booker in the fold.
Surround him with better complementary defenders and secondary playmakers who generate more wide-open spot-up bunnies, and Knight will make things happen—super-specific circumstances that are easier to accommodate when he won't fetch a king's ransom.
6. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
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Cases can be made for Carmelo Anthony to fall higher or lower on this scale—fitting, because that's his career in a nutshell.
New York Knicks President Phil Jackson is "determined" to trade the 32-year-old, according to The Vertical's Chris Mannix and Adrian Wojnarowski. So determined, in fact, he's held semi-meaningful discussions with the Los Angeles Clippers about a deal that won't include Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul or J.J. Redick, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Marc Stein.
Anthony is past his prime and an inconsistent participant at best on the defensive end. His no-trade clause, plus the $54.2 million he's owed through the next two seasons (early-termination option for 2018-19), demonstratively limits what the Knicks can get for him.
Translation: Neither Kevin Love nor one of the Boston Celtics' Brooklyn Nets picks are headed to the Big Apple.
Still, Anthony remains one of the NBA's premier offensive players. DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are the only non-guards pairing his scoring average (22.9 points) with his assist (15.0), three-point (35.6) and turnover (8.3) percentages.
If Austin Rivers-headlined proposals are the market standard for Anthony's services, whoever hypothetically acquires him is in no danger of suffering buyer's remorse.
5. P.J. Tucker, Phoenix Suns
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P.J. Tucker would be more of a steal if Phoenix had realistic expectations.
The Clippers offered a second-round pick for him back in January, according ESPN.com's Marc Stein, but the Suns, at the time, were holding out for first-round compensation.
Hysterical, right? Maybe not. The Timberwolves tried poaching Tucker with Shabazz Muhammad, a 24-year-old wing shooting 57.4 percent from deep over his last 20 games, according to Basketball Insider's Michael Scotto.
Phoenix should pull the trigger if Minnesota is still game following Zach LaVine's ACL injury. Muhammad will be a restricted free agent at season's end, but it'll have one-third of the schedule to decide whether he fits the long-term direction.
As an expiring contract on the wrong side of 30, Tucker won't net the Suns anything more. His value will only go down as the trade deadline approaches and the window of opportunity for his next team to evaluate him narrows.
Landing Tucker for another rental or second-round headliner is a borderline coup. His 34.7 percent three-point clip will climb within a more dangerous offense, and he's a low-key defensive bulldog.
"Tucker's combination of defensive ability and sheer physicality could have everyone from the Los Angeles Clippers to the Atlanta Hawks beating down [Ryan] McDonough's door come deadline day," Bleacher Report's Josh Martin wrote. "There aren't many guys with the chops to check the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan, but Tucker, 31, is one of them."
4. Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta Hawks
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Good luck figuring out what the Hawks will do at the trade deadline. Kyle Korver's departure was supposed to be the start of a teardown, but then they yanked Paul Millsap off the chopping block and resumed contending for a top-five postseason seed.
Tim Hardaway Jr. seemed very much available before Atlanta pumped those brakes. On an early January episode of the Lowe Post podcast, ESPN.com's Zach Lowe said the Hawks were auctioning him off for two second-round picks because "they don't want to pay him" when he enters restricted free agency this July.
Interested teams will run into the same issue after reeling in Hardaway. Though he's miles outside the max-contract discussion, wings who've shown glimpses of sweet shooting and playmaking can get expensive in a hurry.
Hardaway's 34.8 percent accuracy from downtown is a tick below the league average (35.9 percent), but he's swishing 39.8 percent of his wide-open triples. And the Hawks have deigned him a makeshift floor general in the wake of a touch-and-go backup point guard situation. His assist percentage is at a career high, and he profiles as Atlanta's third-best offensive performer overall, behind Millsap and Dennis Schroder, according to NBA Math.
Defense remains Hardaway's Achilles' heel, and it takes a sturdy scheme to mask his stretches of poor decision-making. But he's assuming tougher assignments and pitches in with some of Atlanta's best defensive units.
Even if his new digs treat him as a partial-season stopgap, Hardaway's burgeoning offensive armory is worth the price of acquisition—immensely so if the price is a pair of second-rounders.
3. Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings
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How is Kosta Koufos not a hotter trade-discussion topic?
People in the know told ESPN.com's Marc Stein the Sacramento Kings were trying to move him...in July. Mum's been the word ever since—with the exception of the Houston Rockets' not-so-secret crush on him, per Stein.
Radio silence should not be interpreted as "Koufos is off-limits," but the Kings have too many bigs for that stance. League executives still think they're undecided on whether to keep DeMarcus Cousins, per the Sacramento Bee's Ailene Voisin, but the word as of early January was the superstar planned to sign a fat extension this summer with the only franchise he's ever known, according to CSN Bay Area's James Ham.
Add Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere and Georgios Papagiannis to Cousins and Koufos, and the Kings have five should-be centers on their payroll. None of the youngsters hold a ton of value, so Koufos projects as the odd man out.
Sacramento will have no problem finding him a change of scenery despite its wilting leverage. He is a serviceable rim protector—when he doesn't have to chase around mobile bigs—and shoots better than 70 percent around the rim. Koufos has parlayed that point-blank touch into formidable pick-and-roll production: He ranks in the 95th percentile of points scored per possession as the diver, albeit in limited exposure.
Best of all: Including this season, he's owed under $25.2 million through 2018-19 (player option for final season).
His next team is getting a bargain even if it has to give up a mid-tier first-rounder or prospect.
2. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
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Jusuf Nurkic is about to become collateral damage of Nikola Jokic's swift and irreversible rise through the NBA's building-block hierarchy. According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, the Denver Nuggets have been openly hawking him since at least January.
"For sure it's tough," Nurkic said of his relegation at the end of December, per the Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey. "I'm 23 years old. I'm not here to sit on the bench... You control what you control, and I let my agent do the rest of the stuff."
Denver needs a superstar and could try attaching Nurkic to other assets as part of a blockbuster offer. But there aren't a bunch of All-Stars on the chopping block, and Darrell Arthur has been more of a constant in the rotation than Nurkic over the last month or so.
That's not going to change if Jokic stays healthy. The Nuggets have tried playing the two together, and it doesn't work. They get outscored by 16.1 points per 100 possessions whenever sharing the floor—and they've played just five minutes together since Nov. 11.
Squads with openings at center should want to get in on Nurkic's ground floor. He's extension-eligible after this season but won't need a raise until 2018, when he's a restricted agent.
Much like pre-unleashed Jokic, Nurkic is a per-minute stud; he's clearing 15 points, 12 rebounds, two assists and two blocks per 36 ticks for his career. Three other players have done the same through their first three years while logging at least 2,000 minutes: Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson and Bill Walton.
Granted, Nurkic remains a project. Last season's left knee injury bilked him of lift on his long twos, and it's unclear if he can be the anchor for a modern-day defense. But his long-term intrigue belies what the Nuggets can realistically ask for—the blueprint to every good trade-deadline bargain.
1. Serge Ibaka, Orlando Magic
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Serge Ibaka has peaked statistically, a red flag for any 27-year-old. And whichever team gets him will have to shell out max money to keep him in free agency.
But...come on.
Fringe stars rarely get dealt for pennies on the dollar. Suitors have to jump when the opportunity arises, and Ibaka represents the next-best chance of an All-Star-esque steal, according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney.
"It has not taken long for buyers' remorse to kick in," he wrote. "League sources told Sporting News that the Magic have picked up their attempts to move Ibaka ahead of next month's trade deadline, eager to ensure that they come away with some return for a player who does not figure to be in Orlando long."
The Magic will try to match what they gave up for Ibaka—Ersan Ilyasova, Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo. And they will fail. Rival general managers aren't relinquishing two top-end lottery prospects for an impending flight risk.
At the same time, Orlando cannot afford to stand pat if, as Deveney reported, Ibaka is a lock to leave. Getting some value for him, however little, is much better than losing him for nothing. And Ibaka will most assuredly be able to get the Magic something.
This is the second time he's paired a block rate north of four with a three-point clip above 35 percent. Kristaps Porzingis is the only active player with as many such seasons to his name. Ibaka's ceiling is lower than his 21-year-old counterpart's, but he has that unicorn vibe.
Any time you can get your hands on that type of skill set without trading the moon, you do it. So there will be plenty of admirers looking to capitalize on the Magic's self-foisted, leverage-less mud slop.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey and Adam Fromal.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and accurate leading into games on Feb. 6.
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