Biggest Red Flags of the 2016-17 NBA Season So Far
Have you seen the "Panic Button" recently? Perhaps it's somewhere near Kevin Garnett's "Cuss Button."
Wherever it is, we would all do well to let it be for a bit—at least as far as the NBA is concerned. Three weeks into the 2016-17 season is still too early to sound most alarms, let alone call the fire department.
But that doesn't mean there aren't causes for concern across the Association. Every team has played at least 10 games by now—just over 12 percent of the schedule. That's enough of a chunk in which to spot potentially problematic patterns and draw some conclusions about where they might lead.
There are older players who are aging faster than expected, young stars who aren't rising up like they should and revamped teams struggling to find their footing.
It may still be best to refrain from any proclamations of falling skies until Christmas Day, at the earliest. But in these nine cases of early-season struggles, the warning signs have thus far been bright enough and loud enough to warrant keeping tabs.
Golden State Warriors' Defensive Rebounding Struggles
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Surprise, surprise: The Golden State Warriors sport the NBA's most efficient offense...again. What else would you expect from a team that features arguably the three best shooters in the league?
Golden State's defense has slipped to 24th as far as points allowed per 100 possessions, but that should improve over time. There's too much veteran talent on that side of the ball for Golden State to not figure it out at some point. Kevin Durant and the rest of the new Dubs will adapt to assistant coach Ron Adams' schemes and to playing alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
However, if there's one weakness that could not only hold for the duration of 2016-17, but also undermine the Warriors' title hopes entirely, it's on the defensive glass.
Through 11 games, Golden State posted the Association's worst defensive rebound percentage.
Steve Kerr's squad has never been elite in that regard; The Warriors were statistically average at collecting opponents' misses through his first two seasons on the job. When you play small as often as Golden State does—and you rely on gang rebounding from your guards as a result—you're bound to give up something.
But those Warriors still had some usable size and rim protection on their roster to mitigate those concerns. Zaza Pachulia and David West, Golden State's top bigs, are merely spot players now. That could leave the Warriors vulnerable against frontcourt-heavy foes, including the Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers and the same San Antonio Spurs—who waxed them on opening night.
And if Pat Riley's dictates still hold, the old saying "no rebounds, no rings" could come back to haunt Golden State if the likes of Durant and Green don't become bigger factors on the backboard.
Key Veterans Declining on Contenders
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The aforementioned aging of Zaza Pachulia (32) and David West (36) could form the soft underbelly that rivals attack in their attempts to end the newest superteam's title hopes. But those aren't the only disconcerting declines that could plague Golden State this season.
The Warriors might not be able to survive with small ball over the long haul—let alone thrive under it—if Andre Iguodala can't be the same Sixth Man of the Year-worthy force he's been previously. The 32-year-old swingman is off to a slow start, shooting 40.8 percent from the field and hitting just 6-of-24 (25 percent) from the three-point line through his first 11 games.
At least Golden State has other players (i.e., Shaun Livingston, rookie Pat McCaw) who can approximate Iguodala's impact. And even at his peak, Iguodala would be no better than the Warriors' fifth-most important player.
The San Antonio Spurs, on the other hand, can't so easily dismiss what they've seen from Tony Parker. The 34-year-old's already missed four games on account of a hyperextended right knee suffered during the season opener, and he has scored in double figures just twice in the seven he has played.
Granted, the Spurs don't need Parker to score like he used to, not with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge taking over. Parker, for one, appreciates the relief.
"For me, it's very easy to understand that now it's Kawhi and LaMarcus, and I'm fine with it," he told Bleacher Report's Mike Monroe. "And I will just try to do my best to pick my spots and be aggressive."
But without the same burst out of his first step, Parker hasn't been able to penetrate as seamlessly, even when he's wanted to. Nor can he stay in front of most opposing point guards, who tend to be bigger and quicker than him nowadays.
It's not as though San Antonio has a championship-caliber replacement waiting in the wings, either. Patty Mills is a superior shooter (41.8 percent from three through 12 games), but lags behind Parker as a playmaker. Rookie Dejounte Murray could be the answer down the road, though the 6'5" 20-year-old figures to yo-yo between the D-League and the big club for much of this season.
Sacramento Kings Still Swamped with Dysfunction
3 of 9Great players age out of the upper echelon each year in the NBA, just as surely as the Sacramento Kings struggle to excise themselves from a decade-long quagmire.
Through their first 12 games under Dave Joerger, the Kings have scored at a middling rate and defended at a bottom-two clip. The new coach hasn't yet been able to quell the same, old dysfunction that seems to consume the Kings like clockwork. If anything, Joerger's schemes may be fanning some of those old flames, with incumbents struggling to pick up yet another new set of systems.
Willie Cauley-Stein's name was bandied about in trade rumors (since squashed) amid his early issues with grasping the new dictates. Omri Casspi has already fallen out of the rotation and has been none too happy about it.
"Dave is a new coach here, and I don’t think I was high on his list from the get-go," he said, per the Sacramento Bee's Jason Jones. "That’s pretty obvious. I’m not a young guy (28). I’m the captain of my national team (in Israel). I played in the European championships and in the playoffs and different teams. And when you want somebody to get back in a rhythm, there’s ways to do it, ways to help them. Obviously, most of it is on me."
What would a roundup of Kings kvetching be without more talk of DeMarcus Cousins' attitude?
"He hasn’t shown great leadership qualities yet," Shaquille O’Neal said during a recent episode of TNT's Inside the NBA, per Sportings News' Sean Deveney. "One of the best centers in the league, this cat can do it all. … But he’s a hothead. If they want to make a run, he’s going to have to be a leader."
That's not just Shaq talking smack about a young big, either. He also happens to be a minority stakeholder in the Kings.
For most franchises breaking in a fresh coach, these problems would be the natural (and largely tolerable) consequences of rebuilding. But for the Kings, who expected to open their new Golden 1 Center with a playoff-caliber club, they fit too closely the same pattern that's kept them in the lottery since 2007.
Dwight Howard's Desire to Shoot Threes
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If Shaq really wanted to rake someone across the coals, he could just as easily return his attention to Dwight Howard, his former whipping boy-turned-mentee (O'Neal's agent, Perry Rogers, now represents Howard as well).
The former All-Star center seems keen to step out beyond the three-point line now that he's playing for his hometown Atlanta Hawks. When CBS Sports Radio's Doug Gottlieb joked about Howard shooting from deep, the former Defensive Player of the Year responded with a more serious tone (h/t CBS Sports' James Herbert):
"Actually it's something that we all work on every day in practice. You know what, it's going to happen. It's the beginning of the season. Right now, have to make sure that I do a really good job of trying to get every offensive rebound that I can, get every defensive rebound and just be competitive on the defensive end. And the offensive stuff will come. I do want to shoot some 3s, I think that it would just expand everything for myself and for this team. But right now this team needs me to dominate the paint.
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Howard has long dreamt of playing on the perimeter and has poured time and effort into sharpening his jump shot since returning to his roots.
In some respects, it's a noble and practical goal for Howard. He'll be 31 in early December, and if he's to remain relevant in the NBA after his speed and athleticism fade, he may need to do more than set screens and finish at the hoop on offense.
Still, the Hawks, like all of Howard's prior teams, have found him most effective when keeping him close to the rim. They already own the league's second-stingiest defense and rank fourth in rebound percentage.
Atlanta can only hope, then, that Howard was pulling everyone's leg when he talked about pulling up from beyond the arc.
Orlando's Lack of Magic on Either End
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The Orlando Magic spent their offseason beefing up their defense, particularly on the interior. They traded for Serge Ibaka, signed Bismack Biyombo for $70 million and saved coach Frank Vogel from (brief) Indiana Pacers-related unemployment after Scott Skiles suddenly resigned.
Through 11 games, the Magic have looked like anything but a defensive juggernaut. According to NBA.com, Orlando has surrendered the league's highest field-goal percentage at the rim (57.1 percent) on 31.7 attempts per game. It's struggled to finish defensive possessions, be it with a turnover (29th in opponent turnover ratio) or a rebound (25th in defensive rebound percentage).
It's no wonder, then, that the Magic's defense has been merely middling (15th in defensive efficiency).
"Right now we shouldn't be talking about chemistry because we've had enough time to figure that out," Biyombo said, per the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz. "Now it's just about doing, getting out there and getting it down...We're taking some plays off, we're playing some plays that we feel like, and this is a challenge for us."
It doesn't help, either, that Orlando can't score (28th in offensive efficiency). Compared to the Magic's overloaded frontcourt, their crop of guards is precariously thin, with the still-unproven Elfrid Payton entrenched at the point. Shooting and spacing have both been hard to come by, as their league-worst true shooting percentage (48.8 percent) would attest.
If the Magic are going to make something more of this season than a fifth straight trip to the draft lottery, they'll have to find at least one end of the floor on which to hang their hat.
Miami Heat off to Ice-Cold Start on Offense
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The Miami Heat are having their own issues putting the ball in the basket. They weren't particularly proficient at that last season (12th in offensive efficiency) when they still had Dwyane Wade, but have fallen off a cliff without him—all the way down to 29th.
Replacing a pair of future Hall of Famers in Wade and Chris Bosh is no easy feat, especially when they led the Heat in points per game during 2015-16. But the players tasked with occupying their spots (i.e., Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow) have found the shoes especially difficult to fill.
That young pair has both hit under 35 percent of their respective field-goal attempts. Luke Babbitt, who started the first eight games of the season, shot 32.7 percent from the floor (31.6 percent from three) over that span. Derrick Williams, who has since replaced Babbitt in Erik Spoelstra's top lineup, scored 11 points combined during his first two starts.
Goran Dragic's recent ankle injury hasn't helped matters for anyone.
In truth, the Heat, at 2-7 through their first nine games, might be forced to face the harsh music of a rebuild. To hear team president Pat Riley describe it, the team is already on that track. As he told NBA.com's David Aldridge:
"So talent is still, always and will forever be at the top of the list. So we feel that with Hassan, and with Justise and Tyler (Johnson) and Josh (Richardson), and some of the new guys who we got this summer, four or five of those young guys can create a nucleus. We have a pick this year. I have intentions, if it’s possible, to try and get another pick. And then we will have room. And so from that standpoint, you start making a plan and formulating what it looks like down the road, but you’re going to have to get some breakthroughs -- from Hassan, from Justise, from Tyler, from Josh. And then you’ll see where you go from there.
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The rest of 2016-17 could be an offensive slog in Miami. Until things turn around on that end, the Heat can rely on Hassan Whiteside (18.2 points, 15.9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) and a defense that ranks among the league's elite.
No Help for Anthony Davis in New Orleans
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Statistically speaking, Anthony Davis is playing like a bona fide NBA MVP. He ranks third in league scoring (30.5 points per game), sixth in rebounding (11.2 boards), second in free-throw attempts (11.5 per game), eighth in steals (1.9 per game) and first in blocks (2.9 per game).
But MVP winners don't come from losing teams, and the New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the league's worst; they stumbled to an 0-8 start before winning two of their last three.
That's not all on Davis, who missed Wednesday's game against Orlando with a quad contusion. The other inactives (i.e., Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Quincy Pondexter and E'Twaun Moore) have left the team with little room, if any, to find reinforcements. It got so bad that the Pelicans had to waive Lance Stephenson— one of the squad's few productive perimeter players—after he suffered a groin injury so they could clear a spot for a healthier guard (Archie Goodwin).
Meanwhile, those healthy enough to assist Davis—chief among them, rookie Buddy Hield—have failed to do so. As FiveThirtyEight's Chris Herring detailed:
"Teams have sent hard, aggressive double-teams at Davis on 9 percent of his post-up looks this season, three times as often as last year, per Synergy Sports. He’s done well when he opts to shoot over the double, but he hasn’t had a reliable shooter to pass to. Of the 15 times he’s passed out of a post-up double-team, the Pelicans have scored a total of four points and shot just 7 percent (1-of-13), according to Synergy. Defenses have been wise to ignore perimeter shooters: New Orleans is an NBA-worst 28.6 percent from behind the arc.
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Some of those concerns should subside once Holiday returns from his personal absence. But it will take more than a former All-Star point guard to pull the Pelicans out of the Western Conference cellar, let alone anywhere near playoff contention.
No Rest for Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City
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There's no dismissing the phenomenal numbers that Russell Westbrook has posted this season. Through the Oklahoma City Thunder's first 11 games, he came about as close to averaging a triple-double (31.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 9.8 assists) as anyone can in this day and age while taking (and making) more threes (34.8 percent on 5.5 attempts per game) than he ever has.
But the Thunder's recent slide has highlighted a problem that's bubbled just beneath the surface: They can't score when Westbrook sits. As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe pointed out:
"The Thunder are just an average-ish offensive team with Westbrook on the floor, and when he rests, holy hell do they become unwatchable. They have scrounged just 84 points per 100 possessions in those precarious minutes, a number so far below Philly's league-worst mark it makes you wonder if a D-League team could pull it off.
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Some such slippage is to be expected after losing Kevin Durant over the summer. But scoring has become a Herculean task for OKC, one that could submarine any hopes of postseason contention this spring.
The good news is this: Cameron Payne should be back soon, Victor Oladipo and rookie Domantas Sabonis have shown signs of growth in their respective roles and the Thunder have defended at a top-5 rate.
The bad news? The objective of basketball is still to score more points than the other team. That's a tall order for OKC to fill night in and night out, even when Westbrook is being Westbrook.
Discord in D.C. Between John Wall and Bradley Beal
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Before the 2016-17 season began, John Wall warned of on-court issues between himself and Bradley Beal, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's J. Michael Falgoust:
"I think a lot of times we have a tendency to dislike each other on the court. … We got to be able to put that to the side. If you miss somebody on one play or don’t have something go right ... as long as you come to each other and talk. If I starting arguing with somebody I’m cool. I’m just playing basketball.
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As far as the numbers go, those concerns have held true. According to NBA.com, the Washington Wizards have played their opponents to a draw when Wall and Beal have played together—not horrible, but not ideal when it involves the team's top two players.
But as has long been the case with Wall and Beal, any petty disputes they share pale in importance to their health, or lack thereof. Head coach Scott Brooks has taken precautions with Wall, holding him out of back-to-backs after the All-Star underwent surgery on both knees over the summer.
Wall might soon be ready to play on consecutive days, though Beal's status is now in question. His absence from the Wizards' game in Philadelphia on Wednesday was his third straight on account of a tender hamstring.
Those DNPs won't help Wall and Beal mend any fences. Neither will Washington's 2-8 start through its first 10 games.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats and accurate as of games played on Nov. 16, 2016.
