NFL Picks Week 9: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks
We are halfway home.
With eight weeks of the 2014 NFL schedule in the books, more than half of the teams in the league have played half their slate. Storylines and division races have taken shape.
The AFC North is shaping up to be an absolute dogfight. All four teams have winning records at the season's halfway point.
The NFC South, on the other hand, is the division no one wants to win. All four teams in that division have lost more games than they've won so far.
Week 9's slate is headlined by a showdown in Dallas between two of the NFL's most surprising teams this year: the 6-1 Arizona Cardinals and 6-2 Dallas Cowboys.
That's not the only big matchup of the week, however. Whether it's a "battle" for first place in the NFC South or a meeting between two AFC North foes who don't like one another even a little bit, here's how the National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report expect Week 9 to play out.
Roll Call/Standings
1 of 14
It's Chris Simms' world. We're all just renting space in it.
The former Texas standout, NFL signal-caller and current Bleacher Report Video Correspondent was the only one of our 16 pundits who picked the Pittsburgh Steelers to defeat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8.
Not only did the Steelers win, but they dropped 51 points on the Colts.
However, it wasn't Simms who recorded the best showing in a week when every writer but one once again finished above the .500 mark. That honor goes to NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, who gained a game on Simms.
Simms, however, maintains the overall lead he's held since Week 1.
Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 9-6 (75-45)
Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 10-5 (75-45)
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 8-7 (74-46)
Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 9-6 (69-51)
Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 12-3 (81-39)
Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 8-7 (69-51)
Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 11-4 (68-52)
Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 8-7 (78-42)
Rivers McCown: AFC South Lead Writer 8-7 (66-54)
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 9-6 (77-43)
Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 9-6 (68-52)
Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 11-4 (77-43)
Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 10-5 (83-37)
Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 10-5 (75-45)
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 7-8 (71-49)
Sean Tomlinson: NFC West Lead Writer 10-5 (58-30)
Aggregate: 9-6 (76-44)
New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)
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The Pick: New Orleans Saints (13-3)
The New Orleans Saints are the definition of a Jekyll and Hyde team in 2014.
In the friendly confines of the Superdome, the Saints are a perfect 3-0, outscoring their opponents by almost 13 points per game.
On the road, it's been the exact opposite. The Saints are 0-4 away from the Big Easy and have a point differential of minus-27.
Granted, three of those four losses were by three points or less. Tackle Zach Strief told Katherine Terrell of The Times-Picayune that he thinks the road woes stem from the team not playing four quarters:
"Obviously there was the game in Dallas that we didn't play real well, but the other losses have been games that you say man, you should have gotten out of there with a win. And the fact of the matter was that the things that were getting us beat were the little things that we've talked about and that we've tried to improve. Even the games at home up until really last week I would say we weren't finishing the way that we needed to.
"
Coming off the Saints' most impressive win of the season, our panelists are bullish on New Orleans winning its first road game and wresting control of the NFC South away from the Panthers.
As NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter wrote, "I never want to count Cam Newton out of a game, and the Panthers defense we know and love finally showed up against Seattle, but it sure looked like Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints finally flipped the switch in Week 8, and that’s a terrifying prospect for the NFC South.”
The NFC South, as in every team appears headed in that direction.
Saints: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Panthers: Gagnon, Hangst, McCown
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
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The Pick: Cleveland Browns (16-0)
You might want to get your affairs in order. Make things right with estranged friends and relatives. That sort of thing.
Because this is the second straight week that the Cleveland Browns have been a unanimous pick, and I'm pretty sure that's the 12th sign of the apocalypse.
Of course, it's not really hard to see why the panel made the pick it did. Outside of a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers that looks more and more flukish with each passing week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been mostly terrible this year.
The entire team (just about) was reportedly available for trade. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Doug Martin both figured prominently in trade rumors. Tampa Bay did wind up shipping strong safety Mark Barron to the St. Louis Rams for fourth- and sixth-round picks, but Jackson and Martin remain.
The Bucs fell in overtime at Minnesota last week, a loss that head coach Lovie Smith told reporters was especially hard to take.
"We let one slip away," Smith said. "Late in the game we needed someone to step up."
You'd think the coach would be used to it by now.
Buccaneers: Paging Mr. Winston. Mr. Winston, please pick up the pewter courtesy phone.
Browns: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
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Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
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The Pick: Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
Only in Dallas can things go from fantastic to full-on panic mode in the span of 24 hours.
That's exactly what's happening this week. After the Cowboys fell to the Colt McCoy-led Washington Redskins in overtime in Week 8, a game in which Dallas quarterback Tony Romo injured his back, fans in Dallas who were on top of the world a few days ago are now ready to jump out of windows.
Romo underwent tests on his back Tuesday, but head coach Jason Garrett told Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan (via Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas) that he expects Romo to be a go this week against the Arizona Cardinals: "We'll get the tests today, but we anticipate him being ready to go [Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals]. When we left the stadium last night, he seemed like he was OK, and we'll get the tests today to verify everything."
However, the fact that Romo is expected to play in Week 9 didn't stop Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com from ringing alarm bells:
"Monday's loss was also reminiscent of so many heartbreaking defeats in the Jason Garrett era which included lack of adjustments and questionable late game play-calling. With two plays to get three yards in overtime, the Cowboys did not lean on their vaunted offensive line or running back DeMarco Murray.
Perhaps it's not fair to criticize Garrett during this impressive season, but he has not earned the benefit of the doubt the last few years. To show this Cowboys team is different, they will have to re-prove themselves anew each week. There will be no better time to do so than Sunday against the blitz-happy Arizona Cardinals, the new owners of the NFC's best record.
"
It's a close vote, but just over half our writers expect the Cowboys to answer the bell Sunday at Jerruh's House.
However, NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter expects panic levels to hit DEFCON-11 after Sunday's game.
“The Dallas Cowboys have been great this season," Schalter said, "but the Cardinals have been, too, and unlike the Cowboys, coming off a Monday Night Football pratfall, Carson Palmer and the Cardinals are just hitting their stride.”
Cardinals: Davenport, Freeman, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Schalter, Tanier
Cowboys: Bowen, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)
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The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) ***Coin Flip***
We've made it eight weeks into the season without a tie. I did everything in my power to prevent one, including using my vote to ensure that one didn't take place on more than one occasion.
Still, I am left no choice in Week 9 but to cast us into anarchy.
I apologize.
In many respects, it's a bit surprising to see so many voters taking Houston against an Eagles team that was inches away from defeating the Arizona Cardinals and moving to 6-1 last week.
With that said, when you have the NFL's best defensive player in J.J. Watt, and the AFC's leading rusher in Arian Foster, then you have the tools to stay in games.
Houston has both, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick can avoid the costly mistakes that have done him in so often in the past, the Texans are more than capable of pulling this one out at home.
And yes, I flipped a coin to break the tie.
Because I really hate ties.
Eagles: Bowen, Davenport, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier
Texans: Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Simms, Tomlinson
New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
6 of 14
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
You know things aren't going well when an NFL general manager opens a conference call with the media by reading a rambling, 19-minute statement.
As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports, that's exactly what New York Jets GM John Idzik did Monday, taking responsibility for the team's 1-7 start:
"Gut-wrenching...brutal...you feel like you've been punched in the face. It's painful. It's particularly painful for our fans. This is very personal to me. The Jets are my team. The Jets are our team.
I'm the general manager of the New York Jets, and I am responsible for the football operations of the New York Jets. Ultimately, I'm responsible for the performance of our team and the product we put on the field. That lies with me. The buck stops here.
"
Idzik's statement likely had something to do with his seeing the same writing on the wall as ESPN New York's Johnette Howard:
"There is so much wrong with the Jets organization right now—from the roster makeup to the scouting to the coaching to upper management—quibbling about the details almost isn't worth the pixels or breath. What matters is somehow, someway, Jets owner Woody Johnson needs to summon the will that he didn't have two offseasons ago and drop the plunger on his dysfunctional organization. Blow it up. No more half-stepping.
"
Now ask yourself if any of that at sounds like a team that's ready to go into Arrowhead and play a Chiefs team coming off its best performance of the season.
I didn't think so.
Jets: Freeman, Simms, Tanier
Chiefs: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)
7 of 14
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (16-0)
After a rocky outing against the Miami Dolphins last week dropped quarterback Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars to 1-7, John Oehser of the team's website was rather philosophical about the loss:
"This is what we wanted, everyone from media to fans, and this is what it means. It means errors, and means games lost that might have been won, and no question that was the storyline Sunday when the Jaguars lost to the Miami Dolphins, 27-13, in front of 65,633 at EverBank Field on a sunny, perfect Northeast Florida afternoon.
'I’m killing us,' Bortles said after the game.
That was it. That was the quote you’ll see most tweeted from a game the Jaguars controlled statistically for a half, the quote you’ll see most discussed from a game the Jaguars’ defense dominated for the better part of a half and into the second.
In a sense, Bortles was right.
"
Now, Bortles and his league-leading 12 interceptions certainly aren't helping matters any, but there's plenty of blame to go around. Some of that blame is starting to fall at the feet of head coach Gus Bradley, who badly needs fewer moral victories and more actual ones.
Unfortunately for Bortles, Bradley and the boys, not a single one of our panelists sees the Jaguars getting a win in the Queen City Sunday.
Jaguars: Look at the bright side. Things could be worse. See Raiders, Oakland.
Bengals: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)
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The Pick: San Diego Chargers (13-3)
The San Diego Chargers are in trouble—sort of.
After losing in Week 1, the Chargers rattled off five straight victories. However, losses to both Kansas City and Denver inside the AFC West over the past two weeks have the Bolts circling the proverbial wagons if they want to stay in the division race.
Much the same can be said for the Miami Dolphins. It's happened with zero fanfare and not many style points, but the Dolphins are quietly 4-3 and only a game off the pace in the loss column in the AFC East.
In fact, with the New England Patriots (who the Dolphins defeated back in Week 1) facing the Denver Broncos on Sunday, the Dolphins have a golden opportunity to move into a virtual tie atop the division.
As ESPN.com's James Walker notes, the game is the beginning of a tough stretch on the schedule for Miami:
"The Dolphins will face the San Diego Chargers (5-3) next Sunday, followed by the Detroit Lions (6-2), Buffalo Bills (5-3) and Denver Broncos (6-1) on Nov. 23. Miami will find out where it stands following this brutal slate. Miami’s next four opponents have a combined record of 22-9, making it arguably its toughest stretch of the season.
"
The overwhelming majority of our writers don't anticipate November starting well in South Florida.
Chargers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Dolphins: Frenz, Hangst, Hansen
Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
9 of 14
The Pick: Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
The Washington Redskins have had more than their fair share of problems in 2014. When Colt McCoy started for the team against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9, it marked the third different starter under center for Washington this year.
Of course, McCoy is now the toast of the nation's capital after leading Washington to an overtime win against the division-leading Cowboys.
Head coach Jay Gruden told Sally Jenkins of The Washington Post that he's hopeful Washington will use the game as a springboard of sorts.
“Once our players in there feel like they really believe they can do some things, we got a pretty good team in there,” Gruden said.
This week the Redskins travel to face a Minnesota Vikings team that's similar in many ways, from the questions at quarterback to the first-year head coach.
The Vikings were able to scrape out an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, just as they scraped out a selection as the pick to win this game.
Redskins: Bowen, Freeman, Gagnon, Hansen, Schalter, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Vikings: Davenport, Freeman, Hangst, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Tanier
St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3)
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The Pick: San Francisco 49ers (16-0)
Much has been written in recent weeks about the downfall of the San Francisco 49ers. Everything from the play of quarterback Colin Kaepernick to a reported rift between head coach Jim Harbaugh and the front office has been blamed for an uneven start to the season.
Still, in the opinion of Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com, the 49ers just might have everyone where they want 'em:
"The bye week did more than soothe what ails the 49ers’ spirits and bodies...
Consider: Nose tackle Glenn Dorsey, who started 13 of 16 games last season and had a career-high-tying two sacks but tore his left biceps in training camp, began practicing on Monday, thus opening his 21-day window for the team to either activate him from the short-term injured reserve list or place him on season-ending injured reserve. Also, highly-touted running back Marcus Lattimore is scheduled to begin practicing on Wednesday after being drafted in 2013 with a severe right knee injury, and his 21-day window also opens.
Then there’s linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who continues his rehab from the ghastly left knee injury he suffered in the NFC title game. There is no timetable yet on when to start his 21-day clock. And, of course, there’s the curious case of linebacker Aldon Smith, whose nine-game suspension is already seven games in, though reports continue to swirl that his ban could be reduced by as many as two games.
"
With the streaking Arizona Cardinals continuing to reel off win after win, the pressure is on the 49ers, especially if the Redbirds down the Dallas Cowboys earlier in the day.
However, our voters are unanimous in their belief that the Niners will be up to the challenge when they host the reeling St. Louis Rams in Week 9.
Rams: Unless Kurt Warner's suiting up for this one, nope. In fact, even if Kurt Warner does suit up for this one, nope.
49ers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)
11 of 14
The Pick: New England Patriots (8-8) ***Coin Flip***
Like I said. Anarchy.
You're probably going to hear a few things leading up to this week's meeting between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.
Something about a rematch of last year's AFC title game and a faceoff between two Super Bowl contenders tends to get folks talking.
This game features the latest head-to-head matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Sunday marks the 16th time that Brady and Manning have met on the playing field, with Brady holding a 10-5 edge.
The Golden Boy told WEEI radio (via Lee Schechter of ESPN Boston) that he's come to appreciate the rivalry more as he's gotten older:
"Five, six years ago you don't think about those things. But as you mature a little bit and realize this could always be the last one, then you do. It's pretty special.
[Manning has] been one of the greatest players to ever play. I've been fortunate to share a field with one of the best players that has ever played the game. And every time we play a Peyton Manning-led team, it comes down to the wire. Everything is usually at stake.
"
NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter was one of eight voters who doesn't know if Brady will be feeling quite so nostalgic after the game:
"The Manning-Brady Bowl will be the focus of the weekend, and rightfully so. The Patriots are on a red-hot 4-0 run, outscoring opponents 158-87, but the Broncos have been just as hot, winning their last four by a 149-75 margin—coming mostly against playoff teams with great defenses like the Cardinals, 49ers and Chargers. You can all but throw out the record books when these two quarterbacks meet, but gun to my head, I’m taking the stronger squad.
"
However, just as many pundits picked the Patriots, and the coin flip tiebreaker sealed the deal for the home team.
Broncos: Davenport, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Patriots: Bowen, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, Miller, Schottey, Simms
Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
12 of 14
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (16-0)
This one isn't even fair.
Granted, the Seattle Seahawks may be the defending Super Bowl champions, but they aren't playing like it. The Seahawks needed a last-minute touchdown to squeak past the Carolina Panthers in Week 8, and as Scooby Axson of Sports Illustrated notes, the Seahawks made the magazine's cover for all the wrong reasons this week:
"The Seattle Seahawks are not the dominant team they were last season, as they steamrollered through most of the regular season and the playoffs, capped off by a 43-8 pasting of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Nor are the Seahawks on the verge of a total collapse, as has been suggested by some. Through Week 8, Seattle sits tied for second in the NFC West with a 4-3 record after a 13-9 road victory over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.
In the NFL, it's hard to repeat as champions. No team has done it in over a decade and none have won a single playoff game the following season since 2005, when the Patriots did so.
"
However, compared to the Oakland Raiders, the Seahawks are a combination of the '85 Bears and the '72 Dolphins.
The Raiders are the tomato can of the NFL. The Sun Belt Conference to Seattle's SEC. Oakland ranks 31st in total offense, 24th in scoring defense and 28th in turnover differential.
In Seattle, against a Seahawks team that's fuming after hearing about good they aren't for the past few weeks, the Raiders are about to get pounded into goo.
Again.
Oakland, you are on the clock.
Raiders: Let's see. How can I put this? Not a chance in you-know-what.
Seahawks: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
13 of 14
The Pick: Baltimore Ravens (8-8) ***Coin Flip***
The Browns a unanimous pick. Three ties. Any second, politicians will start telling the truth, and Kim Kardashian will announce she's unlocked the secret of cold fusion.
It's not at all surprising that the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers presented our voters with a tough call. Both squads are 5-3 entering Sunday night's showdown, and the two have a history of closely played games.
Of course, that wasn't the case back in Week 2. The Ravens blasted the Steelers, 26-6, in Baltimore.
Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh told Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he's confident his team has what it takes to get the season sweep: "They compete like crazy. They have a lot of pride over there. … [But] we're very comfortable in that rivalry. We're very comfortable in that stadium. And we understand what it takes to win there."
However, fresh off their most impressive win of the year, Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell told reporters that Pittsburgh is ready to start stringing some victories together.
“We know what we’re capable of,” Bell said. “We showed everybody. Now we have to go out there and put performance on top of performance.”
This is a rivalry that can best be summed up by what former Steelers wideout Hines Ward told Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette back in 2006:
"The coaches hate each other, the players hate each other. There's no calling each other after the game and inviting each other out to dinner. But the feeling's mutual: They don't like us, and we don't like them. There's no need to hide it, they know it, and we know it. It's going to be one of those black and blue games.
"
Tell us how you really feel, Hines.
Ravens: Bowen, Frenz, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms
Steelers: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hangst, McCown, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4)
14 of 14
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (15-1)
Heading into Week 8, the Indianapolis Colts were as hot as any team in the NFL. Winners of five straight, the Colts were being hailed as a leading Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Quarterback Andrew Luck was among the early leaders in the race to be named MVP.
Some of the shine may have been knocked from the team's defense after Ben Roethlisberger dropped 522 passing yards and 51 points on the Colts, but Luck kept right on rolling.
The third-year pro threw for 400 yards and three scores of his own in the loss, and as Will Brinson of CBS Sports reports, Luck is on a pace that could make things very interesting come December:
"Luck isn't on pace to break (Peyton) Manning's record, but he's pretty close (just 33 yards off Brees' pace). And he could be poised for to go up top if the season plays out correctly.
The Colts defense looked like a unit on the rise two weeks ago; after getting buzzsawed by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense it's fine to question how they'll handle high-end offenses. That could mean shootout for Luck against the likes of Brady and the Patriots after their Week 10 bye.
"
The record Brinson refers to is Manning's 5,477 passing yards a year ago, and from the looks of this vote, our experts aren't giving the Giants' 25th-ranked pass defense much of a shot at slowing No. 12 down.
I guess that means the Giants are out of Luck in Week 9.
I'll be here all season, folks. Don't forget to tip your server.
Colts: Bowen, Davenport, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Giants: Freeman
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