Can Anybody Shake Up the Western Conference Playoff Race?
There are some awfully long odds against all eight of last year's Western Conference playoff teams returning to the postseason in 2014-15. Even knowing that, it's ridiculously tough to single out a playoff party crasher.
Since the NBA went to an eight-team-per-conference format in the 1983-84 season, the West has never featured the same eight teams in consecutive postseasons. Not once.
We've had oddities like the 1993-94 Sacramento Kings missing the playoffs with a 39-43 record and making it in 1994-95 with the exact same mark, and we've had injustices like last season's Phoenix Suns winning 48 games and staying home in the spring.
But we've never had complete year-over-year consistency.
The Eastern Conference pulled off the trick between the 2011 and 2012 postseasons, but the West has been wilder. If that trend means anything, we should be able to bank on at least one lottery team cracking the top eight this year.
The problem: A look at the West yields no obvious signs of change.
Who's Slipping?
Barring catastrophe, the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers are assured of playoffs spots. They're deep, talented, led by coaches of estimable success and fully intact after last year's playoff appearances. The Oklahoma City Thunder—even without Kevin Durant for a protracted period—don't figure to slip any lower than the third or fourth seed in the conference. Russell Westbrook won't let OKC fall very far.
Those are the locks. They're going nowhere.
Just beneath those teams, though, we have at least three more that feel nearly as secure: The Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets.
The Dubs won 51 games a year ago and have only added to their talent base this past summer. Backing up an ultra-skilled group that includes Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David Lee and Andrew Bogut are returning role players Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Marreese Speights. Toss in new additions Shaun Livingston and Brandon Rush, and you've got five quality players in reserve.
Steve Kerr's new offense has looked brilliant during the preseason, and the Warriors ranked third in defensive efficiency a year ago per NBA.com. If they go anywhere in the West standings, it'll be up—not down.
The Mavs brought in Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons, the NBA's top before-and-after tandem, to support Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis. Rick Carlisle has reached nearly Popovichian levels of respect around the league. This is not a team likely to slip.
Same goes for the Rockets, who lost Parsons but still have James Harden and Dwight Howard as franchise anchors. Getting exposed by a nightmare matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers in last year's playoffs (and the absence of Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin) might give off the illusion of severe vulnerability. But the truth is, even if the Rockets are marginally worse than they were a year ago, they'll still profile as a 50-win team with a nearly unstoppable offense.
It feels unfair to class the Blazers a notch below the Rockets after last year's playoff result, but OddsShark.com gives them worse title odds than Houston. And there's a sense that Terry Stotts' club was less the hot-starting offensive juggernaut it appeared to be in the first half and more the good-but-not-great team it resembled after the break.
Per Grantland's Zach Lowe: "Portland finished 'just' 23-19 after a blazing start, and it skated by with a rickety and absurdly low-risk defense that doesn’t figure to get all that much better."
Depth is an issue, but with LaMarcus Aldridge, a still-improving Damian Lillard and a phenomenal starting five, the Blazers are just too good at the top to fall out of the playoffs.
The Memphis Grizzlies will bring the same defensive intensity and grind-it-out focus they always have. And we should all remember they won 50 games last year despite going 10-13 in contests Marc Gasol missed. Another year of growth for Conley and additional wing help from Vince Carter and a healthy Quincy Pondexter could give the Grizz the best offense they've had in years.
Expecting them to tumble feels like a mistake.
And even if any of last year's playoff squads get tripped up, we'll still need an upstart to fill the void. No obvious candidates emerge.
Who's Climbing?
It's only fair to start with the Suns, who won as many games as any non-postseason team in history last year. Unfortunately, we probably just saw the best season Goran Dragic will ever have, Channing Frye (an absolutely critical part of the team's spacing scheme) is gone and the league is bound to adjust to an uptempo attack that caught many opponents off guard.
Look, Phoenix is a good team. But last year felt like a peak—not the start of an ongoing ascent.
The Minnesota Timberwolves won 40 games but lost Kevin Love. They're not a threat.
The Denver Nuggets finished an underwhelming 36-46, and though they'll get a few players back from injury this year, they simply have too far to climb.
For all the justifiable enthusiasm surrounding Anthony Davis, the New Orleans Pelicans have approximately six NBA-quality players on their roster. Also, jumping from 34 wins to the 48 or 49 it might take to reach the playoffs seems far-fetched.
Finally, the Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings do not warrant mention in the same sentence as the word "playoffs"—unless the phrase "absolutely have no chance of making the" is prominently involved.
Don't take this pessimistic line too far: You can make a decent case for virtually any of these teams reaching the playoffs. Maybe the Suns go from fast to faster. Maybe the Nuggets return to their dominant ways at home, and Ty Lawson takes the next step.
Maybe Davis starts consuming entire planets and establishes a dictatorship over his own personal basketball galaxy by the All-Star break.
But do any of those possible scenarios seem probable?
Not to me, they don't.
If You've Gotta Pick One...
Caveat: This is the coward's way out, but if forced to lay down a prediction for how the West will continue its 30-year streak of playoff parity, you have to rely on injuries.
The Rockets, despite checking in above teams like the Blazers and Grizzlies in our loose hierarchy, are uniquely vulnerable in this regard. If Harden or Howard goes down for a long stretch, the absences of Parsons, Asik and Lin are going to matter in a big way.
Plus, the general lack of an offensive system (and total lack of a defensive one) mean Houston has little to fall back on if one of its big names misses time. And if the Rockets slide, the Suns seem like the strongest bet to make a jump—mainly because they merely need to maintain their level of play from a year ago, which isn't really a jump at all.
"We didn't make the playoffs last year," Eric Bledsoe told reporters, per Randy Hill of FoxSports.com. "Yeah, we won 48 games, but we were outside looking in. And for us to take that next step, it's going to take a lot of hard work."
And luck, Eric. Don't forget luck.
Even though Dragic can't possibly play better and Markieff Morris can't replace Frye, the Suns should get more than 43 games from Bledsoe. He's looked dynamite in the preseason, and we should expect him to challenge for an All-Star berth. His health alone could make the Suns at least as good as they were last season.
Growth from Miles Plumlee and the addition of Isaiah Thomas won't hurt either.
So, there you have it: The Rockets are doomed, and the Suns are going to be world-beaters.
Well, that or we'll see the first repeat playoff slate in the history of the modern Western Conference. Either way, it'll be exciting.
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