Identifying the Next Big NBA Names at Every Position Entering 2014-15 Season
No NBA offseason would be complete without the arduous task of predicting which players will outshine their previous performances in the upcoming year. There's no one way to define a breakout player, but for the purpose of this analysis, we're going to open it up to everyone across the Association.
What that means is no individual player will be instantly disqualified because of age or past merits. It’s okay if someone is unproven entering his sophomore year, but it's also acceptable for an All-Star, or even a Finals MVP, to make the cut.
What the player does have to show is signs of potential and immediate improvement. That means the range can be as wide as Trey Burke to Anthony Davis, as players of all tiers can enhance their production in 2014-15.
Point Guard No. 3: Trey Burke
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When the Utah Jazz drafted Dante Exum, ESPN’s Chad Ford (subscription required) stated, "He can play with Trey Burke, or he can, and likely will, eventually take Burke's starting job."
It's certainly possible Exum becomes the best guard on the roster before we know it, but with the rookie breathing down Burke's neck on the depth chart, no one should be surprised if the former Michigan product steps up his game accordingly.
Where Burke can improve the most is his shooting efficiency. He shot just 38 percent in his rookie season, and nailed just 33 percent of his three-pointers in the process.
For Burke, getting creative with the ball is crucial, but if the Jazz create a rotation with Exum playing alongside the now-sophomore, it will open up scoring opportunities. Burke has a ways to go before we consider him an efficient player, but it will do wonders for his reputation if he can boost his percentages.
Point Guard No. 2: Patrick Beverley
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Patrick Beverley started in 55 of the 56 games he saw action in during the 2014-15 season. He averaged 10.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game along the way, and he did it while shooting 36.1 percent from downtown.
As solid as those numbers are, Beverley has a chance to improve across the board. Not only is No. 3 option Chandler Parsons now with the Dallas Mavericks, but fellow point guard Jeremy Lin has departed, making Beverley the go-to floor general all year.
Despite having the promise of being a solid offensive contributor, the other end of the floor is where Beverley has and will likely continue making a name for himself. According to 82games.com, his player efficiency rating (PER) per 48 minutes was just 13.1 at the point guard position, but he held opponents to just 14.3 at the same spot.
In 2014-15, the hope is that he can increase his own PER through a higher usage rate while decreasing his opponents'. Nobody expects him to be a true star with James Harden and Dwight Howard leading the way, but a new-look rotation could lead to serious improvements in a chase for home-court advantage.
Point Guard No. 1: Ricky Rubio
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With Kevin Love out, the Minnesota Timberwolves are in the market for a new leader. Although Andrew Wiggins appears to be (or at least fans are hoping he is…) the future face of the franchise, it’s Ricky Rubio who can translate his experience into production for the 2014-15 season.
Last year, the Spaniard averaged 9.5 points and 8.6 assists while shooting just 38.1 percent from the field. He also recorded an impressive 2.3 steals per game, which put him at second in the league (behind Chris Paul) in that particular category.
Although those numbers are respectable, they happened with Love running the show.
With Love gone, Rubio's usage rate should increase. Wiggins is going to draw most of the attention across the league, but Rubio has a chance to become the most productive player with the ball in his hands potentially more than ever.
Although Rubio is entering his fourth year, he's just 23 years old. He's yet to reach his prime, and while that won't likely happen in 2014, he should take a giant leap forward now that he's out of Love's shadow.
Shooting Guard No. 3: Bradley Beal
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Bradley Beal, 21, has already made NBA history in just two seasons. As B/R's Grant Hughes points out:
"According to Basketball-Reference, no player in NBA history has ever made more three-point shots in his age-19 and -20 seasons than Beal, who nailed 229 triples over the past two years. In addition, Beal's combined accuracy rate of 39.6 percent is the highest of any player who made at least 100 combined threes in his age-19 and -20 seasons.
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Although those numbers are impressive, Beal boosted his own reputation with an incredible first showing in the playoffs. In the 2014 postseason, he started 11 games, averaged 19.2 points per contest and shot 41.5 percent from downtown in the process.
For Beal to reach elite status, he'll need the Washington Wizards to continue finding success, as John Wall has seemingly cemented himself as the best player on the roster. But luckily for him, that's exactly what his organization intends on doing.
With the signing of Paul Pierce, this group has not only acquired a locker room presence, but a player who lies somewhere between the status of "aging superstar" and "super role player." Pierce's presence will be a significant boost in the right direction for a dark horse out East, and as a result, Beal should be in the national spotlight more than ever.
Shooting Guard No. 2: Victor Oladipo
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According to 82games.com, Victor Oladipo played 51 percent of the Orlando Magic's minutes at point guard in 2013-14 compared to just 43 percent at the 2.
That could change, however, with the addition of Elfrid Payton to the rotation.
Despite the inevitable change, Oladipo recognizes how his year of playing floor general benefited him. In a telephone interview with B/R's Jim Cavan, Oladipo stated, "It helped me out a lot—to see the floor in different ways, not just playing off the ball."
He continued by saying, “Just having the ball in my hand was huge for my development. I feel like I can play both positions, but learning to play point guard more just makes me more of a threat.”
With Oladipo likely to play his natural position of 2-guard this season, he recalls looking up to one of the best players at the position of the last decade. As he described to Cavan, "When I was younger, I felt like, just in case I don’t grow to be 6’9”, I might as well watch someone who’s successful who’s not necessarily the tallest guy even at his position. That was D-Wade for me."
Although we can't expect Oladipo to be the second coming of Dwyane Wade in 2014-15, we can look to him as one of the most improved players entering his sophomore year. He's a former No. 2 pick for a reason, and his abilities on both sides of the court will come in handy as he makes a name for himself on a rebuilding roster.
Shooting Guard No. 1: Lance Stephenson
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Lance Stephenson is ready for a fresh start. Fans still have the image of him blowing in LeBron James’ ear stuck in their heads, but a successful 2014-15 campaign will do wonders for his reputation.
As The New Yorker's Ian Crouch put it during the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals, "If, in a year or five or ten, Stephenson emerges as a calm and seasoned veteran, his current idiosyncrasies will be held up as the dark 'before' moments in his professional journey toward a respectable 'after.'"
As B/R's Stephen Babb elaborated, "In other words, it's not too late for Stephenson to be remembered for all the right reasons."
The hope here—at least for the Charlotte Hornets—is that the time frame is significantly shorter than five or 10 years. In fact, the hope is for an immediate turnaround.
If Stephenson can make a name for himself for all the right reasons, he'll be one of the biggest breakout stars of the 2014-15 campaign. He's already a borderline All-Star, and with a new organization, he has a chance to prove he's an exceptional talent who can keep his cool on a rebuilt roster.
Small Forward No. 3: Gordon Hayward
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Following the signing of his four-year, $63 million contract, Gordon Hayward isn't feeling the pressure. In Hayward's own words, via The Salt Lake Tribune's Kurt Kragthorpe, "For me, I don’t think I have to live up to anything now."
He continued by saying, "They paid me what they wanted to pay me, and let’s go from there."
Hayward's sentiment is correct, but it's not that simple. There is in fact pressure for him to step up his game, but that shouldn't be hard to do considering he shot so poorly in 2013-14.
As ESPN's Bradford Doolittle (subscription required) wrote in his projection for the game's top small forwards for this upcoming season:
"Not every young player gets a chance to see what it's like to become the focus of his team's offense, but that's what happened for Hayward last season. His career-best WARP was based more on volume than efficiency. As the Jazz improve, you'd expect Hayward's usage rate to ebb a little, but even if it doesn't, his 3-point percentage should be better than last season's 30.4 mark, and that in itself will boost his profile. His abilities were recognized by a restricted free agent market that paid him well over the summer.
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Doolittle has Hayward ranked fourth overall when it comes to small forwards, which would certainly be a boost from last year.
Small Forward No. 2: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t earned the nickname “The Greek Freak” for nothing. He’s an incredibly lengthy player who is apparently still growing, and at just 19 years old, it’s clear he’s barely scraped the surface of his ceiling.
As B/R's Adam Fromal put it back in July:
"Antetokounmpo has the defensive tools to stick in the NBA for a long time, but he's quickly becoming one of the more intriguing offensive prospects because of his rapidly developing skill set. The shooting stroke looks smoother, the handles are tighter, the plays are smarter and the overall product is just an eyebrow-raising one at this stage.
A 19-year-old isn't supposed to have a game that could develop into one with no true weaknesses, but that's what we're looking at. He's already comfortable spotting up or handling the ball for himself, and it's not inconceivable that he could develop a back-to-the-basket game as he continues adding strength and filling out his frame.
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In 2013-14, Antetokounmpo's numbers (6.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.9 APG) were hardly imposing, but that's what makes him such an intriguing candidate for a breakout year. He started in just 23 games in his rookie season, but that should change. And so should his statistical production.
Small Forward No. 1: Kawhi Leonard
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Kawhi Leonard has been on radars for a while now as a possible breakout candidate. When he won his first Finals MVP in 2014, most reasonable minds came to the conclusion that he'd officially "made it."
All that said, his best days are still ahead of him.
As B/R's Stephen Babb has pointed out:
"Those who'd pass judgement after glancing at Leonard's regular-season numbers may wonder what all the fuss is about, chalking up the illustrious Finals performance to an anomalous and limited sample size.
They may concede that Leonard is one of the finest perimeter defenders in the game while doubting he can carry a team on the offensive end.
Put in context, however, Leonard's production has been exceptional. The 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds he averaged a season ago came in just 29.1 minutes per game—minutes that were shared with the league's deepest rotation.
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The fact remains that the Big Three is aging, and Leonard's time to shine is now. Don't count out the experience of the San Antonio Spurs, but don't be surprised if Leonard takes over a previously occupied spot within the Big Three this season.
Power Forward No. 3: Derrick Favors
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When ranking the NBA's teams with the best young talent, B/R's Grant Hughes listed the Utah Jazz as the No. 2 team behind the Milwaukee Bucks. It's no surprise then that Utah has three players on this list of potential breakout players, and Derrick Favors earns the nod as the No. 3 power forward.
In Hughes' own words, Favors is "Utah's best 23-and-under player." He continues, saying:
"Favors isn't there yet, but the possibility exists that he'll become a dominant interior defender. He's long, quick for his size, and he has all the innate instincts to one day anchor an elite defense. Last season, he put up 13.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in just 30 minutes per game. Just 22 for most of the 2013-14 campaign, he also posted a player efficiency rating of 19.0, per Basketball-Reference.com.
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If Favors can in fact grow into a dominant defensive presence, it's going to make a world's difference for the Jazz. They were dead last in defensive efficiency last season, according to ESPN.com, and they were 18th in points per game allowed.
Power Forward No. 2: Kenneth Faried
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Kenneth Faried has always been a ferocious rebounder. He’s always been a great energy guy as well, but he’s gotten lost in the mix a bit when it comes to the Denver Nuggets’ incredible depth.
Although the Nuggets should be deeper this year with the return of the team’s overall health, Faried has something nobody else on the roster has.
Team USA experience.
During the 2014 FIBA World Cup, Faried established himself as one of the most crucial players on the roster. That doesn’t mean he was going out and scoring 20 points per game; it means he used his skill set to his advantage—something that should translate well to the Nuggets' scheme, as the team isn't likely to run more sets for him with injured players re-entering the rotation.
A breakout season for Faried would include league-wide recognition that he is the team's best player. In recent seasons, it's been nearly impossible to identify a star on the Nuggets, as depth has triumphed over star power each and every year.
If The Manimal can become an All-Star out West, it'll be fair to say he's reached stardom. Improvement on defense is going to be a part of that, but playing above the rim and crashing the boards is where it all starts for the former Morehead State Eagle.
Power Forward No. 1: Anthony Davis
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For all intents and purposes, Anthony Davis has already arrived. He’s an All-Star, a defensive menace and an emerging offensive presence, but none of that will keep him off this list.
In fact, those things are what will make his improvements next season that much more impressive, as he’s ready to take another giant leap toward stardom in his third season.
Although we already recognize Davis as one of the best up-and-coming players in the league, he’s about to shed the “up-and-coming” part of that claim. As B/R’s Howard Beck put it, “I think he's right there, just about as impactful as anybody, after LeBron [James] and Kevin Durant.”
For Davis to be recognized as a breakout player, he would have to go from surefire All-Star to MVP candidate. He's already one of the best power forwards in the game, but the way for him to make that next step is to help his team actually win.
Although the New Orleans Pelicans seem like a long shot to make the playoffs out West, an improvement from the 12th-place finish they endured in 2014 would be good enough if Davis' numbers improve as well. This youngster has a chance to establish himself as a top-five player in today's game, and in such a star-driven league, that's certainly worthy of a breakout season.
Center No. 3: Steven Adams
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Steven Adams, even in a breakout year, likely won't put up big-time numbers. After all, he's sharing a court with the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
What we can expect from the former Pittsburgh product is more playing time, resulting in an increased role. He played just 14.8 minutes per game last season as a rookie, but with Kendrick Perkins in the final year of his deal, Scott Brooks would be smart to rest the veteran more often while trying out Adams for the future.
For OKC, Adams has the potential to fit in perfectly. It doesn't need its 5 to be a go-to scorer, and the Thunder certainly don't need to draw up plays regularly to keep him happy.
What it needs is someone who can body through defenders and eventually fill Perkins' shoes. That role may not officially be Adams' until 2015-16, but the upcoming season will give the youngster a chance to prove his worth early in his career.
Center No. 2: Andre Drummond
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Before Andre Drummond had even played in his first NBA contest, I asked him about the notion that the league is transitioning to a point guard's game. He responded as any intelligent big man would.
"Everybody has different styles of play," Drummond said. "I just think for the team that I’m on right now, I know we are very team-oriented."
He continued by saying:
"We share the ball and we just play as a whole, so I think that whole thing about a point guard maintaining the whole game, I don’t think it’s true. I think that, for my team, I think that we’re gonna have a great chemistry and we’re gonna play really well this year."
Although Drummond focused largely on the aspect of a team game, he's since established himself as one of the most promising centers in the league. In fact, he's already made his mark on history, becoming one of just 14 players to ever average at least 13 points, 13 rebounds, one block and one steal, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
At this point, the Detroit Pistons frontcourt is crowded, but Drummond has a chance to establish himself as the most valuable player. According to ESPN.com, he had the 17th-best PER among all qualified players in 2013-14, and with only four centers ahead of him on that list, it's clear that he's well on his way to becoming one of the best 5s in the game today.
Center No. 1: DeMarcus Cousins
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DeMarcus Cousins is already one of the best centers in the NBA from a statistical standpoint. His 22.7 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game prove that, and his PER, courtesy of ESPN.com, was first among centers last season among all qualified players.
What can Cousins do to become a breakout player? Simply put: Make headlines for the right reasons. In years past, his immaturity and hot-headed tendencies have sparked more discussion than his most productive games, and that’s not what the Sacramento Kings need with a vacancy in the leadership department.
Following a summer playing for Team USA, the hope is that Cousins is ready to compete as a leader. His physical dominance should be as impressive as it was last year, but the intangibles are what fans want to see.
If Cousins can become a leader without sacrificing his on-court production, Sacramento will have an All-Star in 2014-15. The hope is that the big man has yet to reach his ceiling, and at 24 years old, it’s easy to see how growth and maturity are on the horizon.
