2018 NBA Free Agents: Predictions for LeBron James and More Top Stars
NBA fans are abuzz with talk and analysis surrounding the draft Thursday, but free agency will follow hot on its heels, with the short-term ramifications will be greater.
Sure, players like Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic could alter the landscape of the league over the next several years, but it's LeBron James' decision that could flip things upside down the day it's announced.
James, of course, will be the biggest name on the market this summer if he opts out of his contract. One might make an argument for Kevin Durant, mostly because he's four years younger, but LeBron is still better right now and there's little chance Durant leaves the team with which he just won two titles.
So, the de facto table-setter will be discussed first, followed by predictions on four of the other big names who'll be available in 2018.
LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers
James just wrapped up his 15th season. He's 33 years old. Yet he led the league in 2017-18 wins over replacement player, per Basketball Reference. He ran away with that category in the postseason, when he averaged an absurd 34.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 block per game.
There's little doubt that his 2018 free-agency decision will dictate, in large part, how the 2018-19 season will go.
If he stays with the Cleveland Cavaliers or even goes anywhere else in the Eastern Conference, it's hard to imagine him not extending his consecutive Finals appearances streak to nine.
If he heads to the West, that streak is certainly in jeopardy, but there's one spot where a "possibly, if everything breaks right" contender to the Golden State Warriors might emerge:
Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus laid out the case for how the Los Angeles Lakers might be able to fit James, George and Kawhi Leonard all onto the same roster. That trio's intriguing for obvious reasons, with positionless basketball perhaps chief among them.
Among the things that have made the Warriors so difficult to slow down over the last few years are lineups with five versatile, switchable players: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green.
LeBron, Leonard and George, with a couple of the Lakers' youngsters who might be left over after all the wheeling and dealing, might be able to go shot for shot with the Hamptons Five.
And even if L.A. can only land one of those players in addition to LeBron, while hanging on to more of the young guys, the Lakers should still be enticing.
Kevin Durant: Golden State Warriors
All indications are that Durant will be back with the Warriors next season, even from the man himself:
But on a recent episode of The Lowe Post, host Zach Lowe and B/R's Howard Beck discussed the idea of Durant one day taking over his own team. It's just that that day figures to be years down the road, and Lowe and Beck agreed on as much.
For now, Durant should be happy playing 1B to Curry's 1A (or vice versa, depending on how you value advanced numbers) and racking up NBA titles. Over the next two or three years, that core will almost certainly enter every season as an obvious contender—and probably the favorite.
Paul George: Los Angeles Lakers
Perception isn't quite the reality when it comes to George. This season, he ranked 38th in box plus-minus. He was 32nd in 2016-17. In fact, the highest he's ever finished a season in that particular catch-all stat was 11th in 2012-13 and 2013-14. But, even if he's not a top-10 player, George makes a load of sense as a No. 2 on a team led by LeBron.
George was fourth in the NBA in total catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this season, per NBA.com. And he connected on over 40 percent of those attempts. If he's the outlet on LeBron's drives, the Lakers will be very difficult to defend.
Oh, and then there's the whole "PG is from Los Angeles" thing hanging over George's free agency.
Chris Paul: Houston Rockets
It's hard to imagine Chris Paul giving up the max contract the Los Angeles Clippers could've given him last summer without some level of understanding that the Houston Rockets would take care of him now.
And while the idea of paying CP3 over $40 million annually in his age-37 or age-38 season is certainly daunting, there's little doubt he can still help the Rockets compete at the highest level now.
Paul led the NBA in ESPN's real plus-minus this season. And Houston could certainly talk itself into thinking it would've closed out the Western Conference Finals with a 3-2 lead if Paul hadn't gotten hurt.
That argument is kind of a double-edged sword, though. Paul's durability will be a question mark going forward. There's a lot of mileage on those legs.
Maybe the compromise is max money for fewer years?
DeMarcus Cousins: Los Angeles Lakers
This prediction assumes the Lakers don't pull off the dream scenario of LeBron, George and Leonard. And if they manage to unload Luol Deng's contract and sign LeBron and George, they may still have enough left over to land DeMarcus Cousins.
There isn't much cap space out there this summer; the market for big men is saturated and the top of the draft is loaded with centers and power forwards. Oh, and Boogie's coming off a torn Achilles. All those factors could lead to Cousins signing for far less than the max.
And just imagine LeBron/Boogie pick-and-rolls, flanked by the shooting of George and Brandon Ingram (who hit 39 percent of his threes last season).
It may be hard for most teams to talk Boogie into a smaller role, but one led by LeBron may be able to do just that.
