Top NBA MVP Contenders Who Can Capitalize on James Harden's Injury
The NBA's hotly debated MVP contest is never over in early January. Even with James Harden posting prolific numbers for the Houston Rockets and propelling them into the thick of conversations about the Western Conference's best team, that truism hasn't changed.
Not completely at least, since Harden has admittedly been pretty darn good.
According to Basketball-Reference.com's NBA MVP Award Tracker, which takes into account statistics and other factors through historical correlations with voting results, the bearded guard was the league's clear-cut favorite for the preeminent individual award before injury struck:
- James Harden, 66.9 percent
- LeBron James, 19.5 percent
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, 3.8 percent
- Kevin Durant, 3.5 percent
- Kyrie Irving, 1.4 percent
That's a big lead, but Harden hasn't opened up an unclosable gap. And now that he's out for at least two weeks recovering from a Grade 2 hamstring strain, as reported by ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, the race is once again up for grabs.
Should he return at the earliest possible date while still adhering to the initial timetable, he'd miss six games—7.3 percent of Houston's entire calendar. If he's out three weeks while Houston exercises caution, that's another three brawls spent watching from the sidelines, bumping his absence up to 11 percent of the schedule.
That might not seem like a significant portion, but every little bit matters in the MVP race. That period without any production allows other candidates to creep back into the contest, especially if Chris Paul continues to play phenomenal basketball and prevent the deep Rockets roster from skipping a beat in its quest to dethrone the Golden State Warriors.
Now, it's worth noting Harden might be motivated to expedite his recovery timetable and throw caution to the wind. He's been tantalizingly close to holding up this trophy before experiencing the bitter taste of defeat on multiple occasions (No. 2 to Stephen Curry in 2015 and No. 2 to Russell Westbrook in 2017), and that could be all the impetus he needs to hit the rehabilitation period even harder.
But this is no longer about Harden. The primary MVP contenders aren't that far behind him, after all.
The Primary Challengers
LeBron James
Age: 33
Per-Game Stats: 27.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 30.3 PER, 5.13 RPM, 294.60 TPA
LeBron James might not be human.
Even though he's now on the heels of his 33rd birthday and has logged so much mileage in the NBA that he should be declining, he's instead submitting one of the greatest seasons of his career. He's never averaged more assists per game, even though he's working with a supporting cast filled with unfamiliar faces who have largely disappointed. He's connecting on 38.7 percent of his triples while attempting 5.0 per game, the second-highest number of his career. He's followed up his worst free-throw-shooting season with his best.
None of this makes sense, except for the fact that James is unquestionably in the all-time pantheon of basketball players and laughs at ceding any ground to Father Time. As TNT and NBA TV analyst Greg Anthony said, per NBA.com's Sekou Smith in early December, "There's never been a player in his 15th season who was unquestionably the best player in the league. It's not just that [LeBron] is really good in his 15th year. He's the best player."
Per NBA Math's total points added, that's objectively true. James, with 45 games left to play, already has the No. 3 score among all players in league history in at least their 15th seasons. He's on pace (652.90) to obliterate 1999-2000 Karl Malone's record among that class (379.57). In fact, he's tracking toward the No. 22 score among every individual season in the archives, experience level be damned.
When the Cleveland Cavaliers got off to a slow start, unable to stop a nosebleed and featuring frustrating performances from all bench members, James' quest for a fifth Maurice Podoloff Trophy seemed ill-fated. Not anymore.
He's refused to slow down, matching Harden's unrelenting exploits stride for stride. Even more importantly, he's done so while pushing the Cavaliers back into the hunt for the Eastern Conference's top seed. They now sit just 3.5 games behind the Boston Celtics, and only the Toronto Raptors fall between those two foes.
But the competition between Cleveland and Boston isn't all that matters. James is still chasing ghosts, and earning a fifth MVP—the same number Michael Jordan earned during his illustrious career—might be all the motivation the forward needs to avoid entering a somnambulatory state during the January and February doldrums, even after the Cavs have all but mathematically locked up a playoff berth.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 23
Per-Game Stats: 29.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.3 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 29.8 PER, 4.76 RPM, 173.02 TPA
If Russell Westbrook could win MVP while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 47-35 record that was only good enough for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, perhaps Giannis Antetokounmpo could do the same. His Milwaukee Bucks are on pace to finish the year at 45-37, and they currently sit at No. 6 in the other half of the Association.
Westbrook's case hinged on his individual numbers, as he became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double for an entire season. Antetokounmpo might not be hitting double-digits in three different categories, but another year of massive improvement has still left him in rarified statistical air.
Throughout the history of this league, 14 different players have averaged at least 29 points and 10 rebounds. But that's not all the Greek Freak is doing. Factor in his assists, steals and blocks, and he's putting together a per-game line only matched by David Robinson in 1993-94. And while the legendary San Antonio Spurs center finished a close second to Hakeem Olajuwon in that year's MVP voting, he would go on to surpass his Houston Rockets counterpart during the follow-up campaign.
However, Antetokounmpo's numbers don't exist in a vacuum. He's doing everything he can to both carry Milwaukee and live up to the challenge thrown his direction by the one and only Kobe Bryant:
With this positionless stud on the floor, the Bucks have outscored the opposition by 5.0 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, that net rating plummets to a miserable minus-12.0. Not only is that the largest on/off swing on the Brewtown roster, but it's also among the top differentials throughout the entire NBA (excluding small-sample-size wonders).
Whether he's calling his own number and showing off his elastic limbs, playing lockdown defense or involving his teammates with ever-improving vision, Antetokounmpo is the impetus behind all Milwaukee success. That was true before Eric Bledsoe's arrival gave the Bucks another reliable figure alongside the MVP candidate and Khris Middleton.
It's still true now.
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Age: 29
Per-Game Stats: 25.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 24.8 PER, 3.62 RPM, 122.35 TPA
If anyone thinks Kevin Durant lacks motivation to win MVP for the first time since his 2013-14 season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, they haven't been paying attention. Even though the 29-year-old is undeniably one of the five best basketballers on the planet, he's a human being in need of affirmation.
We've heard about the social-media burner accounts. We know about the shoes:
Nothing would provide that sought-after validation quite like winning the NBA's supreme award. Special as the 2014 trophy may have been, this would send a different message. Even after joining the league's leading superteam and teaming up with a group that had just set the single-season win record, Durant could still play basketball at a lofty enough level to become a two-time MVP.
Would it require a Herculean effort? Sure, but Durant is more than capable.
Not only is he averaging 25.9 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 50.2 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from downtown and 89.1 percent from the stripe, but he's also playing the best defense of his career. He's functioned as a swarming perimeter defender for the Golden State Warriors on some possessions, then rotated over to serve as a legitimate rim protector blocking 2.22 shots per game—fewer than only Myles Turner (2.33) and Kristaps Porzingis (2.23).
For quite some time now, Durant has been an underrated defender, capable of leveraging his pterodactyl wingspan into havoc all over the half-court set. But now he's starting to get the deserved love, most notably from teammate and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green:
That might not be the only award for which he's gunning.
Maintaining control of the Golden State offense will be tough now that Stephen Curry is back on the floor and ready to start raining down three-pointers. But if we learned anything from Durant's dominance during the 2017 NBA Finals, we shouldn't be willing to count him out when he sets his sights on an achievable goal.
The Secondary Challengers
Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics
Age: 25
Per-Game Stats: 24.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 25.3 PER, 2.84 RPM, 144.50 TPA
Kyrie Irving's game still has notable flaws. He's not passing the ball much more than he did with the Cleveland Cavaliers—seriously, his passes per 36 minutes are only up from 54.0 to 56.2 while his potential assists are down from 12.1 to 10.4—and he remains a defensive liability, despite the truthful narrative that he's exerting more energy on the stopping side.
But freed from the long shadow cast by James, the Boston Celtics point guard has flat-out exploded as a scorer. He's averaging 24.8 points per game, which, while fewer than last year's tally, are coming in far more efficient fashion and less time on the floor. Not only has he upped his slash line from 47.3/40.1/90.5 to 48.9/40.4/89.4, but he's also done so while taking more triples per game and improving his free-throw rate.
During the 2016-17 season, Irving was one of nine qualified players to average at least 25 points with a true shooting percentage of at least 58 percent, and that was while serving as a clear-cut Robin to James' Batman. Now, he's the obvious offensive leader of the East's No. 1 seed and is one of only six men averaging more than 24 points with a true shooting percentage north of 60 percent.
Those strides can't be discounted, though Irving's game still isn't quite complete enough to join the top tier of MVP contenders.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Age: 29
Per-Game Stats: 24.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 24.5 PER, 5.25 RPM, 228.86 TPA
What happens if Russell Westbrook continues his torrid late-December pace and ends up averaging a triple-double for the entire 2017-18 season? He won MVP while doing so last year, and his Oklahoma City Thunder—bolstered by the addition of Paul George and massive improvement from Steven Adams—are actually on pace to submit a comparable record.
Yes, Westbrook's shooting percentages are in the toilet. He's turning the ball over too frequently, and questioning his commitment on defense is perfectly valid. But he's also starting to realize just how important he is to this team and has begun taking over more games.
Over his last 10 outings, the dynamic point guard is averaging a whopping 31.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 10.4 assists while shooting 51.5 percent from the field. Even more importantly, the Thunder are 7-3 during that stretch and have played to a 12.7 net rating when their fearless leader is on the floor—quite a bit better than the minus-19.1 net rating without him.
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
Age: 28
Per-Game Stats: 24.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks
Remember when Happy Gilmore learned how to putt?
Over his last seven games, DeMar DeRozan (yes, he of previously limited range) has taken 5.4 three-point attempts per contest and found twine at a 52.6 percent clip. That stretch includes a 45-point outing against the Philadelphia 76ers in which he drilled six of his nine deep tries and a 5-of-9 showing from beyond the rainbow in a 52-point explosion versus the Milwaukee Bucks.
Obviously, that percentage isn't sustainable. But DeRozan has already changed up his shot profile for the better while buying into an egalitarian offense under Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey. He's partially abandoned the isolation game (frequency down from 17.1 to 14.0 percent) in favor of more advantageous offensive sets, and adding a legitimate three-point jumper would make him downright unstoppable.
Maybe it's too late for him to surpass the MVP field, especially while he continues to play lackluster defense. But he's certainly trending in the right direction and doing his best to leave questions about his value—which were legitimate at the time—in his wake.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Age: 29
Per-Game Stats: 26.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 28.7 PER, 5.70 RPM, 140.47 TPA
Stephen Curry, who doesn't appear among the top 10 candidates in Basketball-Reference.com's aforementioned award tracker, is the longest of shots among this group. But his ability to hit, well, long shots can't be entirely overlooked, particularly after he returned from an ankle injury to torment the Memphis Grizzlies with 10 triples in just over 25 minutes.
Working against the two-time MVP is the unfortunate fact that physical maladies have already kept him out of 13 contests, and they've allowed one of his running mates to vault into the primary award discussion. But Curry remains arguably the league's most talented offensive player, and the Golden State Warriors' dominant scoring machine isn't quite so unstoppable when he's off the floor.
The Dubs' offensive rating dips below 112 only when five players are resting on the pine: Jordan Bell (111.9), Shaun Livingston (111.8), Zaza Pachulia (110.7), Durant (108.9) and Curry (106.5).
One of those just isn't like the others. Without the point guard, Golden State's points scored per 100 possessions would rank a mortal 11th in the league-wide standings, no matter how much supporting talent the roster still boasts.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on Jan. 3.
