Biggest Ripple Effects of 2017 Free Agency
NBA free agency can tell you where the league is headed—if you look past the surface of big moves and key signings.
In the short term, the league's annual talent reorganization creates new powerhouses and shifts conference hierarchies. Teams rise and fall based on the players they gain or lose, and it's not that hard to look at the Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder or Boston Celtics and realize they're in better shape than they used to be.
The longer view is trickier, though.
What do the broad trends of free agency suggest is changing on a league-wide scale?
Which individual signings (or trade demands, as the case may be) portend tectonic shifts?
Free agency isn't just a time for clubs to make the evaluations necessary before suiting up for another year. It's also our chance to assess where the league is going, to peer ahead at what the recent developments mean for the NBA's future.
LeBron James' Path out of Cleveland Is Clear
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Kyrie Irving's desire to play someplace without the best hooper alive shouldn't impact LeBron James' present or future all that much.
Partly because the Cavs could trade Irving for a package that makes them better this season (maybe for a couple guys who play both ends of the court?).
"The Cavaliers are projecting confidence they can snare a king's ransom for Kyrie Irving," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reports, "and more than that, they are acting—for now—as if a trade is almost inevitable, and that there is little chance of salvaging their relationship with him, according to several sources familiar with the situation."
That takes care of the present.
As for the future, Irving or no Irving, James just seems destined to check out the market in 2018. Because wasn't that the point of including an opt out in his last contract? And hasn't he always surveyed his options?
James can't be happy about how the Cavs handled free agency. Owner Dan Gilbert let David Griffin walk, despite James' endorsement, and the resulting organizational uncertainty didn't help the team shore up weaknesses ahead of yet another push to the Finals.
Jeff Green and Jose Calderon aren't moving the needle against the Golden State Warriors. Or the Brooklyn Nets, for that matter.
Calling James' potential exit a ripple feels wrong. It'd be more like a tsunami, a league-altering power shift that'd decimate one of the precious few relevant contenders in the East and, possibly, add another to the already lopsided West.
Nothing the Cavaliers did following their loss to Golden State in the 2017 Finals gave James reason to think the organization's trajectory was angled up. Maybe getting Paul George would have done the trick.
But the Cavs struck out, and the chances of James leaving Cleveland after the season only look more realistic.
Banana Boat: The Dream Is Alive
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The possibility of a Banana Boat reunion is indivisible from the more specific James ripple above.
Maybe LeBron is pragmatic enough to realize teaming up with several 30-somethings isn't the best way to produce a championship contender, and maybe he'd rather orchestrate moves with his new team that involve younger surrounding players in their primes.
But there have been whispers about James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul teaming up for so long that ignoring them would be a mistake.
Especially after everything that happened during free agency—or, rather, everything that didn't happen.
Paul didn't sign a mega extension to stick with the Los Angeles Clippers, and instead joined the Rockets and set himself up for unrestricted free agency in 2018.
James will hit free agency right as Paul does with options galore.
Anthony is still a New York Knick, and he can exercise an early termination option in a year if he's not bought out before that.
Wade doesn't fit with a Chicago Bulls team nosediving into a rebuild, and if he doesn't get a buyout, he'll be a free agent in 2018 anyway.
The Lakers are sitting out there with clean books, ambition and nothing but kids under contract in 2018-19. They can clear a couple of max-salary slots with ease, and though some of the Banana Boat crew would have to take a pay cut to make it work, there's not a more realistic reunion option than L.A.
Stranger things have happened.
The Knicks Stay the Knicks
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In an alternate universe—one in which the Knicks have capable ownership, forward-thinking executives and a coherent plan, we'd have two glamour destinations in the NBA.
Instead of zeroing in on the Lakers as the default spot for stars to land, we'd have to split our fantasies, giving fair consideration to the marquee organization with colossal market appeal on the other coast.
We're in this universe, though, and all the Knicks did in free agency was signal we'll be here for a good, long while.
Steve Mills took over for Phil Jackson as team president, and Scott Perry signed on as general manager after a few months with the Sacramento Kings. Mills isn't exactly a breath of fresh air, and it sounds like Perry will report to him.
"Mills has been a Knicks executive, in some form or another, for 14 of the last 18 years," B/R's Howard Beck explained, "including the last four as general manager. Needless to say, these have not been glorious years."
The status quo has never felt more deflating.
The Knicks have yet to solve their Carmelo quandary, but his value is so diminished as to make any possible trade a below-market salvage job. A buyout, seemingly unlikely, doesn't sound great either.
That's the least of New York's problems. Preserving the extant leadership structure puts Kristaps Porzingis' future with the team at risk. Sure, Jackson's gone. But the guy replacing him is nothing if not a symbol of how little has changed.
And if Porzingis' skipped exit interview and subsequent lack of contact with the team tell us anything, it's that he's not thrilled with the current setup.
At least Jackson didn't trade away future picks before leaving...
Tanking Isn't Cool Anymore
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The Warriors were supposed to have scared everyone into one of two specific actions: Either stockpile arms for a postseason fire fight, or keep the powder dry for 2020.
Fight or flight, basically.
Free agency taught us the race to the bottom isn't going to be as hotly contested as some might have thought.
We saw clubs like the Rockets, Thunder and Celtics add star power, but relatively few teams stripped down their rosters and prepared to tank. The Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets (who don't even own their 2018 first-rounder) stand out as two examples of that approach, but several other candidates for the cellar haven't followed suit.
The Kings added veterans, despite this being a clear opportunity to bottom out. They have their first-rounder in 2018, but not in 2019.
The Philadelphia 76ers brought in J.J. Redick and surrendered assets to get their guy, Markelle Fultz, at No. 1. It appears The Process is complete.
Even clubs like the Phoenix Suns, Knicks and Magic decided not to exchange present talent for future assets and loads of 2017-18 losses.
Maybe the middle isn't so bad. Maybe there's still a health benefit to being on the mediocrity treadmill.
Take heart, tank supporters! Somebody is going to try losing on purpose. The allure of top draft position remains strong, even if we can't yet be sure who'll succumb to it.
Keep an eye on the Dallas Mavericks, who could seize the moment and potentially add a franchise-altering lottery spot. If they go for it, there won't be as much competition as in years past.
The Warriors Are in for a Fight
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If the current iteration of the Warriors isn't the best team in history, it's close.
Which is why it's so remarkable that they may have a harder time getting out of their own conference in 2017-18.
After the Dubs' undefeated run through the West bracket last year, anyone serious about challenging them knew more firepower was in order. So the Rockets snagged Chris Paul in a trade and signed P.J. Tucker and Luch Mbah a Moute.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are suddenly the team best equipped to defend the Warriors after signing Patrick Patterson, retaining Andre Roberson and adding Paul George for two players (Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabons) who wouldn't help against the Warriors.
The Spurs are always a threat. Even if they lost Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon, they're going to win between 55 and 60 games.
Then there's the Minnesota Timberwolves—feistier than ever with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson injecting defense and Jeff Teague threatening opponents as more of a scorer than Ricky Rubio. Throw in likely growth from Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and you've got a squad that could make noise.
The Clippers and Jazz may take steps back (though better health and improved defense could quietly push Utah over 50 wins without Gordon Hayward), but the top end of the West got scarier for the Warriors.
If Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston slip with age or an injury strikes one of Golden State's key pieces, things will be interesting. But even without health or decline issues, Houston and OKC are built to give the Warriors a much tougher time than anyone in their conference did a year ago.
Make Golden State the favorites again, but maybe don't bank on a 12-0 run through the West playoffs.
The Center Market Is Dead
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The specific circumstances—injury red flags, restricted free agency's chilling effect and Dallas' likelihood of matching—make Nerlens Noel a tricky case.
But look around the rest of the league at what's gone on with free-agent centers, and it's clear: We're past the age of spending on conventional (or even semi-conventional) big men.
Dedmon got a two-year deal worth just $7 million per season, Zaza Pachulia couldn't parlay a title win into the mid-level exception with another team, Mason Plumlee hasn't signed, JaVale McGee is still out there and Noel, of course, hasn't inked anything yet.
This, a year after Timofey Mozgov made $64 million a few seconds after free agency started, Ian Mahinmi got exactly that much to be a backup with the Washington Wizards and Bismack Biyombo dove into a pile of $72 million from the Orlando Magic.
In today's market, non-star bigs aren't in demand. It's enough to make you wonder if Marc Gasol would have gotten a max contract in 2017 free agency.
Or if DeMarcus Cousins will get one when he hits the market in 2018.
What about DeAndre Jordan, who has a player option for 2018-19?
In times like these, when league-wide preferences so strongly align, somebody slick usually zigs when everyone else is zagging. Capitalizing on a market inefficiency (the decline in center demand) only makes sense if there's an advantage to be gained, though.
If the NBA is irrevocably morphing into a game where all five players must have multiple skills, maybe there's no price at which it makes sense to pay for someone just because they're big enough to take up space in the lane.
Barring a rule change, we may be moving into the post-center era.
Free agency sure made it seem that way.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
