Ranking the NBA's Most Surprising Hot Starts So Far
With every NBA team nearly one-fifth of the way through its 2016-17 regular-season schedule, we've reached a point where the hottest, most surprising starts must be entertained as the new normal.
This is a scary notion when you consider some of the blistering beginnings we've seen thus far.
Singling out the best is a matter of balancing expectations against shock and quality: How good is a player or team relative to preseason projections? And how does their unanticipated dominance stack up with the NBA's other foremost bombshells?
It's great that LeBron James is almost averaging a triple-double. Ditto for Russell Westbrook. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant continue to reinvent the relationship between volume and efficiency. Good for them. These performances, impressive as ever, are not inconceivable coming from those players.
The surges up for consideration? Championship contenders reaching new, unknown levels. Bad teams shattering glass ceilings. Household names exploding beyond reason. Prospects making history. Afterthoughts emerging as possible franchise cornerstones.
And the more unpredictable, the better.
Honorable Mentions
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Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls, who often run out four non-shooters, rank eighth in offensive efficiency while placing in the bottom eight of effective field-goal percentage.
That makes sense and is totally sustainable, right?
James Harden, Houston Rockets
We knew James Harden would be taking sticks of dynamite to box scores on a nightly basis after head coach Mike D'Antoni made him the Houston Rockets point guard. We prepared ourselves for what would happen next—or so we thought.
Harden is on track to become the first player in league history to clear 25 points and 12 assists per game. His shooting percentages have improved within this expanded role, and the Rockets go from playing like a contender to a smoldering heap of uselessness whenever he sits. Kudos to Harden.
Houston, however, needs to hope its one-man show is enough to remain relevant in the Western Conference.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
Kristaps Porzingis is a future star. We knew this last season.
Did we know he would begin his sophomore campaign by joining Kevin Durant as the first two players to total 225 points, 10 blocks and 20 made three-pointers?
Um, no.
Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
If you thought Kemba Walker would fail to follow last year's career performance with a worthy encore, you weren't alone. You were also wrong.
Walker joins Harden, Isaiah Thomas and Russell Westbrook as the only players who are averaging 25 points per game with an assist percentage north of 30. His overall field-goal (47.3 percent) and three-point percentages (43.5 percent) have never been higher, and he's working his derriere off on the defensive end.
At this point, Walker might as well book his ticket to New Orleans for February's All-Star exhibition—because if the fans don't vote him in, the coaches will.
7. Atlanta Hawks
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It turns out the Atlanta Hawks aren't fine following the departures of Al Horford and Jeff Teague. They are, in the words of the great philosopher Tony the Tiger, "grrreat."
Defense was always going to be Atlanta's calling card, so its first-place status on the less glamorous end isn't melting minds. But it is near the top of the league in a slew of important categories, both on offense and defense:
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 |
If you want to call the Atlanta offense mediocre, go right ahead. It commits too many turnovers and scores more points per 100 possessions when starting point guard Dennis Schroder is on the bench—not a good sign. Still, the Hawks are getting to the rim and moving the ball enough to tread in above-average territory. As far as weak links go, this could be worse.
The most impressive thing about Atlanta? Its supporting cast.
Mike Muscala is an early-bird Most Improved Player candidate, and Thabo Sefolosha isn't far behind. According to NBA Math's total points added, they're on pace to post two of the five most improved scores in the league. Rookie Malcolm Delaney is, somehow, taking the Hawks' ball movement to a different level whenever he's in the game. Tim Hardaway Jr. is hitting shots, occasionally setting up teammates off the bounce and, most astonishingly, trying like mad on defense.
Notice that we've barely mentioned the starters, many of whom—Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver and, when healthy, Dwight Howard—have been good on an individual level. But the opening five are getting slammed when they play together.
And still Atlanta is performing like one of the five best teams in the league.
6. DeMar DeRozan
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There is no stopping the raging inferno that is DeMar DeRozan's offensive onslaught.
Allow SI.com's Rob Mahoney to explain:
"There is no more explosive scorer in basketball right now than DeMar DeRozan. Toronto's resident All-Star has been completely undeniable. DeRozan has faced switches, doubles, zoned help, and hard hedges. Defenders of every position and every physical profile have taken a crack at guarding him.
None of it has meant a damn thing.
"
Almost half of DeRozan's looks are coming from mid-range, and he's putting down 24 percent of his three-point attempts—offensive factoids that shouldn't manifest in a top-three scoring clip.
Which begs the question: How?
Well, first, DeRozan is making around 47 percent of those mid-range opportunities. That number should fall; he drained 38 percent of his mid-range jumpers last season and 35.8 percent in 2014-15.
But DeRozan hedges against probable regression by attacking the basket and drawing a ton of fouls. He is shooting better than 63 percent inside the restricted area and averaging more trips to the charity stripe per 36 minutes than ever before. It helps, too, that he's burying more than 50 percent of his contested field-goal attempts.
Sounds unsustainable, right?
Except, that's been the party line for realists all season, and DeRozan continues to torch defenses—along with the preconceived limitations a player like him is supposed to have.
5. Vince Carter
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Vince Carter? Soon-to-be 40-year-old Vince Carter? Here?
Contrary to what you might think, it's not seniors day at Bleacher Report. Carter has just been that good—indispensable to a Memphis Grizzlies squad that would be skirting offensive implosion without him. Here's Zach Lowe of ESPN.com further unpacking Carter's Father Time-taunting exploits:
"He's canning bailout jumpers late on the shot clock, slinging no-look passes, and playing whip-smart off-ball defense. He can still run a pick-and-roll in a pinch, and he's tussled with elite wing scorers -- including Giannis Antetokounmpo -- in recent games. If you're lucky, you might catch a glimpse of his coiled, silky athleticism. Carter can still rise high, and if he's feeling giddy, he'll rev the motorcycle engines for old time's sake.
What a remarkable career. Stop asking if Carter is a Hall of Famer. He's in.
"
Carter is getting more burn than he has in six years. His usage rate (16.1) is a personal low, but the threat of his 34.9 percent clip from downtown is opening lanes for an offense that remains hard-pressed to grind out space. Seriously, just look at these on-off splits:
| 44.2 | 34.5 | 104.8 (13) | 5.1 (6) | |
| 39.6 | 31.5 | 92.9 (30) | -9.8 (29) |
Slotting Carter higher on this ladder would be easy—justifiable, even. But his production, while great, isn't disarming.
His importance to Memphis, though, is reminiscent of a superstar in his prime.
4. Harrison Barnes
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Tales of good talents playing good basketball on not-good teams are a dime per triple-dozen—unless the player in question is Harrison Barnes.
Written off by many after frequent disappearing acts as a fourth option with the Golden State Warriors, the 24-year-old combo forward is lighting it up for the Dallas Mavericks. His 21.3 points per game lead the team, and he's shooting 46 percent from the field despite a career-worst three-point clip (30.6 percent). (Related: Life is hard when Stephen Curry and Draymond Green aren't feeding you wide-open bunnies.)
To heck with reservations— Dirk Nowitzki is impressed, as he told Sporting News' Mitch Lawrence:
"He has the complete package. I've worked out with him a couple of times after practices, and he's got every shot in the book. And he's looked like a franchise player here the last few weeks. He's shown us moves that are very impressive, not only shooting the ball, but driving the ball, both ways. He's got left[-hand] hooks and left runners. He's shown strong post moves. He's athletic. He's a hard worker. He wants to win. So I think the sky is the limit for him.
"
Let's not forget: Barnes is the go-to guy for a middling offense, he doesn't get to the foul line enough for someone with his usage, and Dallas is tallying more points per 100 possessions when he rides the pine. Oh, and the Mavs aren't good.
On the other hand, Barnes is getting buckets at a solid rate early in the shot clock and ranks as one of the best isolation scorers in the league. He has always been able to defend either forward position without getting smoked, but he's also shutting down opponents in one-on-one situations, icing post-ups and filling random gaps in the Mavericks' half-court scheme.
Dismissing Barnes' hot start as just that is hard. He has never been a featured option before, so who's to say this version of him is an aberration? Maybe all he needed was a green light to attack rather than stand in the corner or bully through the occasional post-up.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
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Any time the Los Angeles Clippers are healthy, you expect them to be great. But not this great.
And most certainly not this way.
Top-five offense? Cool. OK. Whatever. That's what happens when Chris Paul is on your team. And nothing less is acceptable when Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick flank him.
But what about the league's second-best defense? The Clippers aren't supposed to have that, even with Jordan in the middle, and yet they do.
How about an all-bench unit that ranks as the seventh-best lineup among five-man bands that have logged 55 or more minutes together? Or Austin Rivers looking like an NBA player for quarters, sometimes games, at a time?
Or Griffin busting his tail like never before to become a defensive asset?
Everything is going right for Los Angeles. Even a should-be damning flaw, such as a lack of three-point shooting, is being propped up by red-hot clips from Paul and Redick.
However high your hopes were for these Clippers, the idea that they would be here, checking in as the Association's best team with almost one-fifth of the season gone, didn't exist.
2. Joel Embiid
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Joel Embiid is testing our capacity to avoid profound conclusions from small sample sizes.
So what if he doesn't have 10 appearances to his career resume? Who cares that the Philadelphia 76ers are awful or that he's recording one of the worst turnover rates in league history for a rookie big? Pencil him in for superstardom.
Through nine contests, Embiid is averaging 18.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game (on a minutes limit, no less). Seven other rookies have maintained those numbers for an entire year, and they're all Hall of Famers: Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson and Ralph Sampson.
Embiid has months to go before he joins that company. But nine games can be a harbinger of what's to come.
Five other players since 1983-84, have recorded 160 points, 65 rebounds and 20 blocks through their first eight outings. They are all, once again, Hall of Famers: Olajuwon, O'Neal, Robinson, Sampson and Dikembe Mutombo.
Not one of Embiid's legendary partners, mind you, showcased three-point range during that time (or ever). He is offensively polished beyond his years—a 7-foot-something who will bang in the post, put the ball on the ground, pull up off the dribble and swish triples with the smooth, if slightly slow, shooting stroke of a wing.
Oh, and when Embiid is on the floor, the Sixers play watchable defense. He swallows shots at the rim, rotates on a whim and crowds or spot-covers guards without getting blasted.
Maybe Embiid's workout clips over the last two years convinced you he would be good right away. But no one could have reasonably predicted this immediate foray into stardom.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
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Celebrating a team that's playing .500 ball feels disingenuous to the spirit of hot starts. But the Los Angeles Lakers, even this early, are supposed to be contending for one of the NBA's worst records.
Instead, they're refusing to let go of the Western Conference's final quarter-season playoff spot and defying short-stick expectations almost nightly.
Some of the Lakers' greatest first-month hits include:
- Ranking ninth in points scored per 100 possessions (107.4)
- Recording a better home-court net rating than the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz
- Beating the Rockets, Hawks and Warriors
- Playing the Spurs without D'Angelo Russell and kind-of-sort-of-almost winning
- Turning Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams into one of the league's 30 best two-man lineups (minimum 250 minutes played)
- Saving Nick Young's career
- Giving Russell the freedom to play like Manu Ginobili
- Carving out a niche for Julius Randle as a composed out-of-control point forward
- Averaging almost as many screen assists (10.3) as the Warriors (10.5)
- Letting Brandon Ingram play through an offensive slump and finding out he's already a first-rate perimeter defender
It's probably too early for us to declare Los Angeles the feel-good story of the season or tag Luke Walton for Coach of the Year candidacy.
Necessary counterpoint: There's a stronger chance it's not.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into Monday's games.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
