The 6 Toughest NBA Free Agents to Price on the 2015 Market
No one said planning for NBA free agency is supposed to be easy.
On the contrary, aside from the rampant rumor mills, the league's teams must first decide what players are worth. That's easy in some instances. Easier than easy.
LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Kevin Love, among others, are max-contract locks. Restricted free agents such as Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard will fetch top dollar, most likely from their own teams.
Rising stocks such as DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap aren't even too difficult. Putting an exact amount on their services is tough, but their contemporary-carved skill sets are easy to plug in almost anywhere. Even if they're overpaid, they're still unlikely to classify as demonstrative busts or contractual cruxes.
Other high-profile names cannot be boiled down to those simple terms. They are not palatable fits on any given team; their play styles are super specific in terms of shot selection, defensive competence, health and the position they man. And for them to succeed, their next home must be determined accordingly.
These players usually look good statistically or by reputation but have a tactical niche. Finding their next home and subsequent financial worth ahead of free agency is hard, if not impossible. Once they sign a new deal and join or rejoin a team, the return on that agreement won't become clear anytime soon.
It'll take time to know what's actually best for them in the long run, and whether they'll be remembered fondly or unfavorably for their offseason ventures.
Monta Ellis
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Monta Ellis' free-agent case seems pretty straightforward on the outside. He led the Dallas Mavericks in scoring for 2014-15, and Rajon Rondo has both feet (and arms) out the door. Even if no other team is preparing to swoop in with a bank-breaking offer, he still has immense value to the Mavericks.
Or, you know, maybe not.
As one of just 13 players to clear 18.5 points, four assists and 1.5 steals per game last season—a list that reads like a who's who of household names and perennial All-Stars—Ellis is nothing if not a candidate to decline his $8.7 million player option and hit free agency. And yet, if he does that, Dallas is a candidate to pass on him first.
Instead of reinvesting a few years and tens of millions of dollars in Ellis, the Mavericks would rather funnel that cash elsewhere, according to ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. That's something.
Whenever an incumbent team shows hesitation in bringing back someone who has mostly thrived, it's everything.
It's also a sign of Ellis' uneven skill set. He's valuable as a combo guard who can create for himself and for others, but he's a defensive liability and incapable of playing off the ball for long stretches.
The latter deficiency is especially problematic for a Mavericks squad that likes to spread the wealth under head coach Rick Carlisle. Ellis shredded twine on just 32.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities last season and failed to even slightly coexist alongside Rondo.
For those keeping score at home, Ellis has been unable to operate beside Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings and now Rondo. The premium placed on his services could be surprisingly low based on his off-ball transgressions, or it could go in the complete opposite direction, courtesy of an expected cap boon in 2016.
Hence why he remains one of this summer's greatest mysteries.
Reggie Jackson (Restricted)
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Pricing out free-agent point guards is inherently difficult. The position is so deep, and its players so talented, there are only a few select floor generals with unquestioned value.
Reggie Jackson is not one of them. He's part of the other sector, the "Um, hmm, so how much for this guy?" region reserved exclusively for the highest risk-reward gambits on the market.
Viewed through a box-score vacuum, Jackson has an immeasurable ceiling. He averaged 17.6 points and 9.2 assists in 27 games with the Detroit Pistons, nightly production that screams "franchise point guard."
And if not for his mostly ugly three-point splits, Jackson's status wouldn't be so fluid. But his outside stroke remains an issue. He has never shot better than 33.9 percent from deep for an entire season and put in just 34.7 percent of his looks outside 10 feet for 2014-15.
Nor has Jackson frequently flashed off-ball flair. The league values point men who can work away from the action and score as spot-up shooters while functioning within smaller, passing-packed offenses. Jackson dropped in just 27.5 percent of his standalone field goals with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Pistons.
Colossal caveat: Jackson appeared to expand his range considerably to close the regular season. He drilled 36.4 percent of his long balls between March and campaign's end and converted 45.2 percent of his spot-up treys while in Detroit.
But that versatility isn't promised. And it's not like the Pistons were galloping giants with Jackson running the show. They barely ranked in the top 15 of offensive efficiency and posted a 10-17 record.
Until such a time Jackson proves differently, he remains an offensively limited, albeit explosive, point guard who will stand out as a drive-and-kick initiator within an offense that trots out three to four real shooters around him.
Talk about your uber-specific, headache-inducing fits.
Enes Kanter (Restricted)
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Enes Kanter's success following his midseason trade to the Thunder is bittersweet.
On the one hand, his 18.7 points and 11 rebounds on 56.6 percent shooting are enticing enough for the NBA's most notorious penny-pinchers to rifle through their conservatively designed Brooks Brothers wallets.
On the other hand, his success came after the Thunder abandoned the Utah Jazz's attempt to modernize Kanter's game.
Rookie head honcho Quin Snyder tried turning the fourth-year big into a stretch 4 to no avail; he was connecting on just 31.7 percent of his long balls prior to the trade. Only when the Thunder allowed him to post up at will and attempt 76.9 percent of his shots within 10 feet of the basket did he really thrive.
Interior-based skill sets still have their place in the NBA, but only if the players championing them dabble in rim protection—which, for the record, Kanter does not. Opponents shot 61.2 percent against him inside six feet of the basket.
Paydays for players such as Kanter should, in theory, be low. But the Association's teams, for whatever reason, are still seduced by half-coordinated towers.
Oklahoma City specifically may be forced to match any offer, big or small, Kanter receives. As the Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry writes: "If he lets them walk, [Sam] Presti wouldn’t have a way to replace them, and that would be a blow the Thunder can’t afford to take to the roster’s overall talent. It’s as much of a business decision as it is a basketball one."
Financial inflexibility may cause the Thunder to spend even more on Kanter. You can't make this stuff up.
Signing Kanter, however, is a huge dice roll. His skill set isn't just outdated; he hasn't proved he can shine as a complementary option.
Looking beyond the fact that offenses aren't typically built around lumbering bigs anymore, Kanter will have to cede touches to Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, not to mention other, more polished players should he sign elsewhere.
Good luck forecasting an ideal home for him. It may not exist this side of 2000.
Brook Lopez (Player Option)
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Brook Lopez should live among the NBA's elite centers by now, no questions asked.
Most 7-footers do not boast his offensive range. He's best suited in half-court situations, and his tendency to fall in love with post-ups is outdated. But he's adapted nicely.
35 percent of his shot attempts came outside 10 feet last season, of which he nailed a respectable 42.4 percent. He's no stranger to working opponents over with face-ups, and when placed beside the right point guard (so, not Deron Williams), his pick-and-pop game should be among the strongest out there.
Even Lopez's defense has undergone sustainable transformation. His rebounding shortcomings are real, and he'll ball-gaze much too often, but his block percentage since 2012-13 (5.0) ranks 11th among all players to log at least 3,000 total minutes during that time.
To put that in perspective, touted shot-blockers Andre Drummond (4.7) and Dwight Howard (4.3) check in below Lopez.
Blocked shots do not translate into lockdown defense by any means. But Lopez also held opponents to field-goal clips inside six feet that were 4.7 percentage points below their regular-season average.
Here's the thing: Though Lopez's stats say "buy me," his health bill is still a cautionary tale for behemoths with foot issues. He went from playing in five games during the 2011-12 crusade, to 74 in 2012-13. Then he went from appearing in 17 contests for 2013-14, to 72 in 2014-15.
Committing significant time and money to his unpredictable lower limbs isn't the soundest of investments. Especially when it comes to players of his size.
So while Lopez—who can still exercise his player option worth more than $16.7 million next season—often plays like a max-contract superstar, he's been relegated to bystander duty too much for him to be colored as a sure thing.
Greg Monroe
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Pistons president and coach Stan Van Gundy is an expert manufacturer of tealeaves.
As he told reporters while riffing on Greg Monroe's future just before June, per David Mayo of MLive.com: "We'll have to look at what comes up, where we are after the draft, possible trades, all of that, and just go from there and see what's best for both sides."
Not two weeks after that little open-ended response, the Pistons traded for Ersan Ilyasova. A stretch forward.
Someone who is a perfect fit for Van Gundy's one-in, four-out offense.
Ergo, not Monroe.
Nothing is off the table with free agency still a ways off, but Monroe's value has never been lower in Detroit. And before now, both inside and outside Motor City, his value was actually an enormous unknown.
The concern isn't even that Monroe's per-game performances appear to have peaked somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 points and 10 rebounds. His playing time and role have been inconsistent over these last five years, and there are plenty of teams that'll pay eight figures annually for what he contributes to the cause.
At this point, Monroe is just a more seasoned version of Kanter. He's nimble and crafty in the post, and his presence on the glass is admirable for someone who plays below rim.
Like Kanter, though, Monroe has little to no jumper of which to speak.
More than 89 percent of his shot attempts came within eight feet of the hoop in 2014-15. On the rare occasion he moved further away, he was a non-factor at best and liability at worst; he nuked nylon on less than 35 percent of his buckets between eight and 24 feet.
Monroe's flimsy rim protection doesn't help matters. Of the 83 players to contest at least five point-blank opportunities per game, he ranked 72nd in opponent field-goal percentage.
In the right system, on a team that has him working from the post as a scorer and playmaker alongside a stretch 4 who also blocks shots and covers up for his defensive missteps, Monroe could be a fantastic find.
Shelling out tens of millions of dollars—perhaps a max contract—for a fringe star who needs the surrounding cast tailored to his every strength and weakness just isn't something free-agent suitors take lightly.
Rajon Rondo
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If Rondo's stock was only about his ill-fated tenure in Dallas, he wouldn't be here.
Never mind that, per MacMahon, Carlisle has already verbally committed to handing Rondo his walking papers. Whatever. The 29-year-old point man still has four All-Star selections (three appearances) and an NBA championship included on his resume. That's enough to generate widespread interest.
Unless, of course, the NBA has started to leave Rondo the premier setup man behind. And as Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey underscores, that's exactly what is happening:
"The Mavericks had an NBA-best offensive rating of 113.6 prior to the acquisition of Rondo on December 19. After the trade, they scored 104.1 points per 100 possessions, which was 13th in the league over that span. ...
In that pace-and-space NBA mentioned by Ding, a point guard who can't shoot (of the 107 players who logged at least 2,000 minutes in 2014-15, Rondo's true shooting percentage ranked dead last) and has attitude problems can't command much of a payday.
"
There will always be teams like the Mavericks willing to gamble on talent, however dated, superseding function and fit. But there's no telling where that right fit lies, mostly because Rondo is still toeing that line between star and project.
Maybe he accepts a below-market deal as part of a redemption plan. Or perhaps a team such as the Los Angeles Lakers overpays for the right to bill fans for one year of Kobe Bryant and Rondo battling against the nonexistent hardwood ghosts of years past.
What is that below-market deal, though? Around $5 million in 2015-16? Is it possible he commands eight figures? Deep into eight figures?
For a player once firmly linked to the best point guard conversation, Rondo enters 2015 free agency as this summer's greatest unknown, caught between the ball-dominant star he used to be and the modern-day, off-ball-friendly guard he needs, but may not be able, to become.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball-Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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