NBA Free Agency 2015: Start Date, Rumors, Early Predictions for Top Free Agents
Covering the NBA—or any professional sports league, for that matter—is no longer an in-season task. Now more than ever leagues attempt to turn their sport into a 12-month affair, succeeding for the most part with a calendar chock-full of must-cover events.
The NBA Finals begets the draft begets free agency begets a summer filled with trade rumors. Add in small events such as summer league and the summer months are no longer about refueling for the season ahead; they're about finding the slivers of breathing room between the cascades of news. Even the relative doldrums of August last summer were filled with never-ending Kevin Love drama.
So even though Golden State's win over Cleveland on Tuesday signals the end of NBA basketball until October, our jobs are far from finished. The draft is just a stone's throw away, where Karl-Anthony Towns will likely become a No. 1 pick, the Lakers will likely select their next foundational big man in Jahlil Okafor and the Sixers will probably trade away half their roster again.
But instead of adding to the deluge of draft content, let's skip ahead a few more weeks. At exactly 12:01 a.m. ET on July 1, teams can begin meeting with free agents. While none of those contracts can be signed until the moratorium on transactions ends July 10, those first nine days will see nearly every major star make his decision.
With that in mind, let's take out our biggest preview stick and assess the weeks to come.
Top Free Agents*
(*Players ranked by Basketball-Reference.com's VORP metric.)
1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
LeBron plans on opting out of his player option for the 2015-16 season, but there's no need for Cleveland to hold its collective breath. The four-time MVP will be back with the Cavs next season; he's merely opting out to maximize his earning potential. James will almost certainly sign another two-year deal with a player option, with plans on opting out again in 2016 when the new television deal kicks in.
We all remember The Decision and how LeBron once spurned his entire home state to sign with the Heat. Perhaps there's some alternative universe where he reads the Kevin Love writing on the wall and does it again. But I highly doubt at age 30 that LeBron is willing to take the bridges he rebuilt last summer and napalm them again.
LeBron is a Cavalier for life. The biggest question of the summer is who will be joining him for the long haul.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Cavaliers
2. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
Gasol's going to be a top target of the league's two biggest markets. Knicks president Phil Jackson has long viewed Gasol as the perfect modern fit for his Triangle offense, an elite passer who works brilliantly out of the high post and can knock down enough jumpers to keep defenses honest.
Kobe Bryant has publicly praised Gasol in the past, as illustrated in a tweet (via Serena Winters of Lakers Nation), has a great relationship with Marc's brother Pau and the Lakers could chase hard after Gasol if they choose to go with a guard at No. 2.
The overwhelming likelihood is that Gasol finishes out his prime in Memphis. He spent a large part of his developmental years in the city when Pau was in Memphis, thrives as a two-way force within the Grizzlies ecosystem and doesn't really have to worry about too much national spotlight.
Moving on is probably the right option if Gasol wants to win a championship, but the Lakers and Knicks are light-years away from approaching Memphis' level of contention.
Maybe Gasol moves in midway through his next contract, when the Grizzlies start dismantling this core. For now, he stays.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Grizzlies
3. Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors (Restricted)
Perhaps the only free agent whose process is less interesting than LeBron. The Warriors are going to max Green out and should. There are few better team-player pairings in the league. Golden State has the infrastructure in place to atone for Green's shortcomings on the offensive end, while allowing him to be truly unleashed on defense, where he finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
"This is no reflection on Kevin Love, but every team wants a Draymond Green," Warriors assistant Ron Adams told Grantland's Zach Lowe, remarking on Golden State's fateful decision to not trade for Love. "He has internalized the parts of the game that are the winning parts: the hustle, the grit, the defense, making the right play at the right time. I love that guy. I’m glad he’s on our team.”
Is Green a max-level player in the true sense? Probably not. He doesn't move the needle enough on offense—particularly creating shots for himself—to justify the cost. But some team would certainly pay him the max after the season he just had. The Warriors should and will save everyone a lot of grief by getting this done early.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Warriors
4. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
There is validity to the rumor, as Fox Sports' Bill Reiter reported, that Jordan and Chris Paul aren't always the best of friends. There is validity to a lot of rumors. Paul's one of the NBA's most driven players and at times—OK, pretty much every game—that competitive fire spills over into criticism of teammates. Jordan is not the most mentally aware basketball player on the planet.
Hence you get moments like these.
Tension when you so obviously embarrass your coworker is natural. No one enjoys being barked at all the time, and adding NBA player egos to the scenario is a volatile mix. This is why Doc Rivers has said roughly 200 ridiculous things in praising Jordan since his arrival.
Issues arise when we start assuming players will make business decisions based solely on whom they'd like to play 18 holes with. Jordan and Paul probably aren't hanging at each other's houses all offseason, but everyone has publicly maintained they have a perfectly solid professional relationship.
"I can put this to rest: They get along great," Rivers told Fred Roggin of The Beast 980 (via Arash Markazi of ESPN.com). "Clearly, like everybody, they don't get along all the time, and they don't get along with me all the time, either, by the way. I don't see that as an issue. I think all three, and I'm including Blake in this as well, understand how important the other guy is to them."
Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reported there's mutual interest between Jordan and the Mavericks. The Blazers might make a play if they fail to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge. But the narrative that Jordan and Paul's relationship is so sour that he'd turn down a max contract from a championship contender strikes me as off.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Clippers
5. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls (Restricted)
The Bulls shot themselves in the foot by lowballing Butler in October and will have to pay the price in a big way this summer. Their $40 million offer will have to at least double to keep Butler around, something they absolutely should do. Whether that's an option Barnes will consider is another question entirely.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported Tuesday that Butler is considering signing a "shorter-term offer sheet," so he can reach unrestricted free agency sooner. The report throws around a three-year, $50 million deal with an option after the second season, akin to Chandler Parsons' contract in Dallas. That would allow Butler to hit unrestricted free agency again when the cap spikes because of the new television deal.
Butler, not Derrick Rose or Joakim Noah, is the team's franchise player at this point. Even if his offensive production tapered off after a red-hot start, he's emerged as one of the league's best two-way guards who has made improvements in every NBA season. In fact, the Bulls might be smart to consider floating Rose or Noah's name on the trade market this summer and seeing if they can still get star-level haul.
Butler's the one player Chicago can't afford to leave dangling. It's too bad the team blew its chance to get him on the cheap.
Prediction: Butler Signs Offer Sheet With Lakers; Bulls Match
6. Tim Duncan, PF, San Antonio Spurs
Don't be stupid.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Spurs (if he plays)
7. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (Restricted)
The Spurs allowing Leonard to hit restricted free agency seems more strategic than anything. They will have max-level cap room on July 1 and have to begin really thinking about how to build their post-Tim Duncan roster.
It's possible they kick the can down the road another season, but some creative accounting can allow them to re-sign Leonard, grab a free-agent superstar and keep Duncan and Manu Ginobili for another season.
That would require Duncan and Ginobili taking massive pay cuts—we're talking beyond Dirk Nowitzki levels—but it's at least theoretically possible. Keeping that option open is the only cogent reason the Spurs would have avoided giving Leonard, then the reigning Finals MVP, the max in October. Even now, Leonard doesn't sound like someone who's given a second thought to leaving.
The fact that he's not signed now is more smart financial planning than anything.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Spurs
8. Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
After being one of the NBA's best values the last two seasons, Millsap hits free agency again coming off consecutive All-Star appearances. At age 30, Millsap's also looking at his first and only chance to really cash in.
All of that makes Millsap one of the summer's more intriguing free agents. By all accounts, he's found a perfect home in Atlanta. Mike Budenholzer's system has unleashed the full array of his skills, and frontcourt-mate Al Horford picks up slack in defensive areas where Millsap struggles at times.
USA Today reported the Hawks are "supremely confident" they can re-sign Millsap and DeMarre Carroll while keeping enough cap space to add another free agent.
That means Millsap would have to take less than the max, a sacrifice he may not have to make if he waits the process out. Millsap could be a consolation prize to any number of teams that miss out on the bigger names. Portland could make a push if Aldridge leaves. Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News also threw out Dallas as a potential landing spot.
Smart money is on Millsap staying in Atlanta. He's just not as big of a lock as the others we've been discussing.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Hawks
9. Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks
Mark Cuban has openly admitted allowing Chandler to walk following Dallas' 2011 title was a mistake. I doubt it's one he's willing to repeat, even if it might be smarter to do so this time around. Chandler drew a ton of praise (rightfully so) for being rejuvenated following his toxic exit from New York, but his age is still showing in areas.
Opponents shot 50.9 percent when Chandler was within five feet of the rim, per SportVU data. That's exactly the same number as opponents shot two years ago when folks in New York were talking about Chandler's drop-off. He was still Dallas' defensive fulcrum in the middle and a solid partner for Dirk Nowitzki, but the Mavs need to start taking a hard look at their future.
Cuban will go star searching this summer, looking to take advantage of one last window before the NBA's spending bonanza in 2016. Perhaps that will alienate Chandler once again, and he'll leave. Again, it just doesn't seem likely.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Mavericks
10. Wesley Matthews, SF, Portland Trail Blazers
Matthews' free agency has become more interesting for all the wrong reasons. Due a massive pay raise after emerging as one of the league's most underrated two-way wings, Matthews now faces an uncertain future after rupturing his Achilles.
The history of players returning from that injury is onerous. It'd be a historical rarity for Matthews to approach his former level of play, and teams will have to account for that when making him offers this summer.
Finding the right offer will be an incredibly difficult task. Signing a one-year deal and hitting the open market next summer is smart if he's fully confident he'll be back at full health. That said, the temptation of securing his financial future—even if it's at a much lesser per-year rate—will be palpable given all the current uncertainty.
Prediction: Signs With Mavericks
More Top Stars
For some reason, VORP, the most objective ranking method I could think of, has a strong distaste for some of the most interesting players on the market. Here's a look at those players, put in no particular order.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
Viewed by some as the best player who's actually in play this summer, Aldridge honestly feels like a four-team chase.
Portland has its inherent draws. Aldridge has been with the Blazers his entire career, emerged as a face of the franchise and helped the organization as a whole move on from the "Jail Blazers" fiasco of the last decade. Portland can also offer more money than any other suitor, which matters even with the cap expected to skyrocket.
"Of course I love being here, and I'm thankful for everything this city has given me, thankful for my time here,'' Aldridge said in April, per Jason Quick of The Oregonian. "It's been an amazing nine years and of course I'm not trying to make that end.''
The allure of championship contention and returning to his home state has always made Dallas, Houston and San Antonio intriguing options. Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher highlighted the Mavericks as the current Texas favorite and wrote San Antonio is "not very high" on Aldridge's list.
My feeling—and this is entirely a gut call—is that Aldridge finds his way to Houston. The Rockets are the only team on that list with a championship-level core of players in a similar age bracket. They were inches away from luring Chris Bosh away from Miami this summer, and Daryl Morey is always on the search for a third star. It'd take some cap limbo to get it done, but a sign-and-trade feels like a realistic outcome.
Prediction: Signs With Rockets
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
Let's make a few things very clear: The Cavaliers are not better without Kevin Love. Tristan Thompson is not a better basketball player than Kevin Love. Cleveland's grind-it-out style is absolutely unsustainable during the regular season. Everyone in the Cavs front office and locker room should do whatever it takes to retain Love long-term.
What will happen? It's hard to tell at this point.
Based on Love's public comments, he wants to be in Cleveland next season. Opting into his contract for 2015-16 is a simple way to pull that off. It allows Love and the Cavs an opportunity to continue their relationship without the burden of a long-term arrangement. Love can see if he's better integrated into the offense while keeping himself available for the 2016 bonanza.
The numbers don't lie; Cleveland was significantly better with him on the floor all season, including the playoffs.
With Love consistently saying he plans on opting in, that's the most likely scenario for now. That said, the Lakers rumors, as reported in Adrian Wojnarowki's interview with The Jason McIntyre Show (via Ben DuBose of Sheridan Hoops), aren't dying until he signs a long-term deal.
Prediction: Opts Into Player Option to Stay With Cavs
Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat (Player Option)
The Heat and Wade are at a bit of a stalemate in contract negotiations, but the notion they're headed for a divorce is silly. Both sides know they're more valuable together than apart.
Miami's moves since LeBron's departure indicate it has no interest in tanking; there's no feasible scenario where Pat Riley finds someone to replicate Wade's production. Wade also knows there aren't too many teams who value a 33-year-old guard who doesn't stretch the floor and plays 60 games a year as much as the Heat.
This isn't a Duncan situation because I suppose there is some catastrophic scenario in which Wade leaves for Dallas or New York. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Heat
Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat (Player Option)
The Heat are banking on retaining their veterans. There is no secondary option. Much like Wade, it may result in Riley having to overpay for a player who isn't worth his contract. By no stretch of the imagination was Dragic a $100 million guy in either Phoenix or Miami this season, but that's the going rate for a guy a year removed from All-NBA distinction.
Dragic is by far the best player in a weak year for free-agent point guards, and he's going to draw a ton of attention on the open market. Los Angeles and New York are certain to be calling.
While Dragic seemed happy after getting himself out of a toxic situation with the Suns, not all is perfect. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Dragic has let it be known he wants a more up-tempo pacing next season, something that might not mesh well with Miami's aging roster. It's certainly possible he hears a pitch from another team and decides to bolt; remember how happy he was last season in Phoenix?
Still, if Riles offers the max, it's hard to see him turning it down.
Prediction: Re-Signs With Heat
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