10 Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of the 2015 NBA Season
With the first half of the 2014-15 NBA season in the books, it's time for teams across the association to take off the training wheels and let loose as the fight for playoff positioning kicks into high gear.
But which players and teams will prosper the most when the spotlight shines brightest?
Thrusting a focus on playoff positioning, historically significant statistical tallies and award winners, it's time to try to answer that question with some bold predictions for the season's remaining contests.
To be clear, these bold predictions pertain strictly to the conclusion of the regular-season slate and do not touch on potential postseason results since seedings are still variable.
Golden State Warriors Finish with Most Wins Since 1996-97 Chicago Bulls
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According to the numbers churned out Jan. 25 by the factor-adjusted team-similarities projection model crafted by Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal, the Golden State Warriors are on pace to win 70 games this season.
That would leave Steve Kerr's explosive squad with six available losses after starting the season on a 36-6 tear. However, with the Warriors operating as the cream of the Western Conference crop 5.5 games clear of the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers, it's hard to envision a scenario in which Golden State will be pressed to play its starters in every game down the stretch.
But even tacking on a couple more losses, Stephen Curry and Co. have a chance to wedge their way into the record books alongside Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls, of course, own the top mark in league history after rattling off 72 wins during the 1995-96 season. They also occupy the No. 2 spot (along with the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers) after capturing 69 wins en route to capturing back-to-back championships in 1997.
With 68 victories allowing for a slight regression in the second half, a record-setting campaign is firmly within the realm of possibility for the title favorites.
All 8 Western Conference Playoff Teams Will Top 50 Wins
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Arguably the most fascinating aspect of the 2014-15 regular season has been the disparity in depth between the NBA's conferences.
While the Eastern Conference currently has two playoff teams operating with losing records (Miami and Charlotte), the top 10 seeds out West own more wins than losses.
And while last season appeared to set the bar in terms of interconference talent disparities, this campaign has the potential to top it.
Consulting John Hollinger's playoff probabilities over at ESPN.com, one notices seven of the West's eight playoff teams are projected to finish with at least 50 wins—the same total as last season.
The New Orleans Pelicans (44-win projection) represent the lone exception, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns possessing the same forecast total one spot back.
But let's make one thing clear: Although the Thunder finished the first half a lackluster 22-21, they've been a totally different beast with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook healthy.
Specifically, OKC is 13-7 with both superstars in the lineup. Should the dynamic duo continue thrashing opponents with its fierce offensive stylings, don't be surprised if all eight Western Conference contenders finish with at least a .609 rate of victory.
Brooklyn Will Gift Atlanta a Top-10 Pick
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If you thought the Atlanta Hawks were scary as assembled, just wait until they shake up the draft lottery by making a top-10 selection.
How is that possible, you ask?
Well, even though the Hawks are running away with the Eastern Conference's top spot, the team's decision to trade Joe Johnson to the Brooklyn Nets in July 2012 granted Atlanta the right to swap first-round picks with the Nets this summer, according to RealGM.com.
Given previous reports of a potential fire sale in Brooklyn, the Hawks have to be positively giddy. Should the Nets dump any member of the Brook Lopez-Deron Williams-Johnson triumvirate, Atlanta's eventual spot in the lottery will rise higher still.
Considering Brooklyn is sliding horribly after losing 10 of its last 12 games and is primed to do some serious jockeying with Detroit in the Eastern Conference standings, the Hawks shouldn't plan on budging from their perch atop the East anytime soon.
Anthony Davis Becomes the 2nd Player to Average 25 and 10 This Decade
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Anthony Davis' statistical dominance has become so casual that it's easy to be affected by desensitization. Especially since the New Orleans Pelicans can't separate from a strange and forceful magnetic attraction to a .500 record.
But as things stand, Davis is averaging 24.3 points and 10.4 rebounds, making a 25-10 season quite plausible if the Pelicans start running more of their late-game offense through the Unibrow. Because quite frankly, it's unacceptable for Davis to be attempting just 3.9 shots per game in the fourth quarter.
If the 21-year-old cyborg is able to reach those illustrious benchmarks, he would join Kevin Love as the only players this decade to do so, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Furthermore, Davis would become just the third player in league history age 21 or younger to post the aforementioned per-game tallies. Shaquille O'Neal (1993-94) and Rick Barry (1965-66) are the other members of that esteemed club, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Cleveland Will Finish with the League's Top Offense
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Since LeBron James' two-week injury-induced hiatus, the Cleveland Cavaliers offense has gone ballistic.
In that span, Cleveland has generated a monstrous 117.3 points per 100 possessions, which has helped cover up the deficiencies that continue to plague head coach David Blatt's 26th-ranked defense.
Interestingly enough, the Cavaliers' offensive surge has also coincided with J.R. Smith's arrival. He has provided a nice catch-and-shoot spark from the perimeter.
Specifically, Smith is knocking down 41 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes since being acquired by Cleveland, which represents a bump of more than 15 percentage points from Dion Waiters' season total.
"He's a confident guy, confident in his ability and rubs off on a lot of guys on this team," James said of Smith, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Fedor. "For us to have such a weapon like him to consistently make shots is huge for us. I was excited when we were able to acquire him."
Sitting fractional points behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 6 spot in offensive rating, per NBA.com, a healthy Cleveland core has the chance to shoot past the Suns, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors before setting its sights on the Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers at the top of the charts.
3 Players Will Finish with 50/40/90 Shooting Splits
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Only once in league history have two players finished with fabled 50-40-90 shooting splits during the same season. It was the 2007-08 campaign, and the qualifiers were Steve Nash and Jose Calderon, per Basketball-Reference.com.
But with Kyle Korver, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry all shooting lights-out, it's quite possible we'll see some history made at the conclusion of the regular season.
Through Sunday night, here's how the marksmen stack up from the field, beyond the arc and free-throw line, respectively:
- Stephen Curry: 49.4/39.6/92.0
- Kevin Durant: 51.9/39.3/85.8
- Kyle Korver: 51.6/53.1/92.3
The biggest question mark is Durant, who's 4.2 percentage points back of meeting the minimum requirement in the free-throw department.
However, given the sharpshooting expertise Durant flaunts in spades and his lifetime membership in the club following a brilliant 2012-13 campaign, it would be foolish to count him out of the chase with a half-season left to play.
Clippers Will Finish with Best Assist-to-Turnover Ratio Since 2005-06
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The Los Angeles Clippers are following Chris Paul's example.
While Paul leads the NBA with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.61, according to ESPN.com, the Clippers top the league leaderboard with a tally of 2.15 dimes for every giveaway.
That's a significant figure for a couple of reasons.
First, only three teams have finished with an assist-to-turnover ratio better than 2.0 dating back to 2000. Those clubs were the 2005-06 Detroit Pistons, 2005-06 Phoenix Suns and 2007-08 Toronto Raptors, per NBA.com.
While the Raptors topped out at 2.04 and Phoenix just barely kicked down the 2.0 door, Detroit shredded opposing defenses with a final mark of 2.12 en route to qualifying for the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Clippers aren't on quite as lofty a trajectory due to the ultra-competitive nature of the Western Conference, but the club's quest to conquer all things efficiency-related should be a hot talking point as the season winds down.
A Wing Will Win Defensive Player of the Year
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It's been 11 years since a wing player (Metta World Peace, 2003-04) captured Defensive Player of the Year honors, but there are two candidates worth watching who stand 6'7'' or shorter.
The first is Golden State Warriors Swiss army knife Draymond Green, who's emerged as a consensus favorite of sorts to take home the league's most distinguished defensive honors.
He ranks first in individual defensive rating (96.1), tops in defensive win shares (3.0)—per Basketball-Reference.com—and functions as the stabilizing force on the NBA's top defense.
He's also an aesthetic delight to watch, as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote:
"Green plays extremely hard, propelled by active hands, wild emotional swings and a maniacal desire to win his individual matchups—no matter the opponent. He helps with uncommon urgency, shuts off passing lanes quickly and almost never gets caught unaware.
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Playing 52 percent of his minutes at the 3, per Basketball-Reference.com, while holding opposing small forwards to a player efficiency rating of 13.7, according to 82games.com, Green has a chance to buck the big-man trends that have dominated defensive hardware for more than a decade.
But don't look past pesky Memphis Grizzlies swingman Tony Allen, either.
Although Memphis is hovering just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies perform like a top-two unit with Allen on the floor, per NBA.com.
Also the league's top perimeter pest with a steal percentage of 4.1, Allen continues to build an impressive case that can't be ignored.
Hassan Whiteside Will Capture Most Improved Player Honors
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Hassan Whiteside, welcome to the Most Improved Player of the Year conversation.
After going berserk and recording a triple-double consisting of 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks in 25 minutes off the bench against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday afternoon, Whiteside officially announced his presence with authority.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Whiteside became just the third player since 1985 to record a triple-double of the points-rebounds-blocks variety off the bench.
"I told Coach Spo I wanted to be the defensive anchor here," Whiteside said following the 96-84 win, via the Heat's official Twitter account. "They gave me the chance that nobody else would."
A former journeyman who's nestled into his new role with the Heat quite nicely, Whiteside has been a paint-protecting machine since the start of 2015. In the nine games Miami has played since Jan. 1, Whiteside's averaging 12.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.0 blocks.
It's going to take sustaining similar figures to keeping climbing up the most-improved ladder, but since we're in the bold spirit, penciling in Whiteside to earn the designation feels appropriate following his explosive performance.
"My whole life has been, ‘Where he come from?' This is the same thing," Whiteside said, according to The Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser.
We hear you, Hassan. Loud and clear.
Chicago Won't Host a 1st-Round Playoff Series
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Once viewed as surefire Eastern Conference title contenders, the Chicago Bulls are teetering on the edge of disappointment.
With the Cavaliers surging, the Bulls have proved incapable of finding a rhythm, despite capturing back-to-back victories against the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.
However, slipping into the East's No. 5 seed, while Cleveland vaults up to the No. 4 spot, might not be the worst thing in the world for Chicago.
Following Sunday's 96-84 loss to the Miami Heat, the Bulls are now just 13-11 at home compared to 16-6 away from the confines of United Center. By comparison, the Charlotte Hornets have accumulated 12 home victories.
Now, it's hard to blame the Bulls for failing to establishing loads of continuity. Between Derrick Rose's nagging lower-body soreness and ill-timed ankle injuries to Joakim Noah, Mike Dunleavy and Taj Gibson, there haven't been many opportunities for the Bulls to mesh.
To that point, the five-man unit of Rose, Noah, Dunleavy, Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol has appeared in just 15 games this season, according to NBA.com. During the 276 minutes they've played together, the Bulls have recorded a net rating of plus-3.9 points per 100 possessions, with the offense doing most of the heavy lifting.
All statistics current as of Jan. 26 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
