Ranking Midseason Contenders for the 2015 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award
Welcome to the new NBA, where Defensive Player of the Year candidates aren't just evaluated based on superficial steal and block totals.
Although those numbers should have some bearing on the prestigious award's final vote, we've been inundated with individual and team-specific defensive metrics that allow us to more accurately define the bearing a player has on his squad's night-to-night performance.
Whether that means properly quantifying Dwight Howard's explosive leap, Tony Allen's frisky feet and hands on the perimeter or Draymond Green's positional versatility, we're now fully capable of properly assessing the most crucial pieces of each player's game in an effort to pinpoint the league's most impactful defender.
So with half the regular season in the books, here's a peek at how the Association's Defensive Player of the Year race is shaping up, with a primary focus on efficiency ratings and rim protection.
7. Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
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Defensive Rating: 101.0
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 50.0
Anthony Davis should arguably be ranked higher. After all, he leads the league with 2.9 blocks per game.
But the New Orleans Pelicans' defense ranks 25th in efficiency, per NBA.com, and steady team defense is generally a prerequisite to be considered a front-runner for hardware.
To be fair, Davis has held up his end of the bargain to a degree.
With Brow on the floor, the Pelicans' defensive rating jolts to 104.3, an improvement from the team's total of 110.1 when he sits, according to NBA.com. That disparity unquestionably bolsters his case in terms of raw value, but a mark of 104.3 would still only grade out as the league's 19th-best rating over the course of the season.
And as BBallBreakdown's Matthew Way explained last month, Davis still has strides to make as a pick-and-roll defender: "He often is not aggressive enough when he should be, or he is too aggressive when he does not need to be. Much like his rim protection issues, Davis’ pick-and-roll problems are often simply a result of not recognizing plays correctly or quick enough."
Compared to his contemporaries, Davis is also not nearly as strong a rim protector as his raw shot-blocking numbers would lead you to believe. According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting an even 50 percent at the rim versus Davis, 10 percent worse than the tally Serge Ibaka has posted to this point.
6. Serge Ibaka, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Defensive Rating: 103.0
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 40.4
As Anthony Davis' most fervent supporters will tell you, blocks carry significant weight in any Defensive Player of the Year discussion.
The case with Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka is no different. Ibaka currently ranks No. 4 overall in blocks with an average of 2.3. Interestingly enough, that's Ibaka's lowest per-game output since his rookie season (1.3).
But thanks to a wingspan that's capable of engulfing the restricted area in one fell swoop, Ibaka is forcing opponents to shoot 11.4 percent worse than the league average inside of six feet, per SportVU player tracking data.
A three-time All-Defensive First-Team member, Ibaka also ranks No. 3 overall in defensive box score plus/minus (3.6) following Sunday's dismantling of the Orlando Magic, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Consider he's also held Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry and DeMarcus Cousins all below 40 percent shooting in one-on-one matchups this year, per NBASavant.com and it's hard to argue against Ibaka's candidacy.
5. Andrew Bogut, C, Golden State Warriors
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Defensive Rating: 94.0
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 42.8
Andrew Bogut may deserve to be ranked higher, but missing 14 of the Golden State Warriors' 39 games to this point in the season hinders his case a bit.
From a purely statistical perspective, though, Bogut's inclusion is indisputable.
Although he hasn't yet qualified for the minutes leaderboard following a bout with knee chondromalacia and bone edema, Bogut is on pace to become the first player to record a defensive box score plus/minus rating better than 5.5 since Marcus Camby in 2007-08. Camby and Ben Wallace are the only players who have achieved that lofty feat since 2000, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Bogut's credentials as a rim protector aren't to be questioned, either.
According to NBA.com, Bogut ranks No. 4 overall in opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim (42.8) among players who defend five such shots per game. Long-armed rejection artists Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka and Roy Hibbert are the only players defending close shots at a more efficient rate.
When we revisit the list of eligible Defensive Player of the Year candidates as the season draws to a close, Bogut will undoubtedly have leapfrogged a few of the players ahead of him. But for the time being, the Australian's one-month absence is understandably detrimental to his overall case.
4. Tony Allen, G/F, Memphis Grizzlies
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Defensive Rating: 99.5
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage on Threes*: 27.0
A wing player hasn't captured Defensive Player of the Year honors since Metta World Peace edged out Ben Wallace during the 2003-04 season.
That could soon change if Tony Allen continues wreaking havoc on the league's most esteemed perimeter players at such a gaudy clip.
In breaking down his strong case, we'll start on a macro level and get progressively more micro.
First and foremost, the Memphis Grizzlies are a staggering 8.5 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Allen on the floor, per NBA.com. As a result, his net rating of plus-10.5 grades out as the team's best—7.2 points better than Marc Gasol's.
As it pertains to one-on-one production, Allen is the peskiest individual defender you'll find on the perimeter. Per NBA.com, Allen is allowing opponents to convert a minuscule 27 percent of their three-point attempts. That's 8.4 percent worse than the league average of 35.3.
And it's not like he's posting those figures by guarding secondary or tertiary scoring options. No, Allen's tormenting the league's most vaunted on-ball threats.
Here's a sampling of opponent field-goal percentages against Allen this season, courtesy of the fine folks at NBASavant.com:
- Kevin Durant: 42.59%
- Kobe Bryant: 40.0%
- Klay Thompson: 42.86%
- Russell Westbrook: 25.0%
- Monta Ellis: 25.0%
- James Harden: 36.36%
- Damian Lillard: 33.33%
It's that sort of sustained excellence that had Kobe Bryant raving about Allen's capabilities earlier this season.
"He’s fundamentally sound defensively, and he plays harder than everybody else defensively," Bryant said, according to the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina. "He has a competitive desire to compete individually. That’s very uncommon. Most defensive players I face want help all the time. I’ve never heard him ask for help. He likes taking the challenge."
3. Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
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Defensive Rating: 99.2
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 45.0
For whatever reason, Dwight Howard's reputation as a tenacious defensive stalwart has been glossed over during his tenure with the Houston Rockets.
It's a shame, too, because Howard has helped anchor a Houston defense that currently ranks No. 2 overall in defensive rating, surrendering a meager 99.1 points per 100 possessions this season, according to NBA.com.
Don't let talk of James Harden's defensive renaissance fool you, either.
While Harden's transformation into a league-average defender is worthy of praise, Houston's actually been 3.2 points worse per 100 defensive possessions with him on the floor. Conversely, the Rockets are 5.1 points better with Howard rocking in the restricted area, per NBA.com.
Like the rest of his seven-foot brethren, Howard's value is often boiled down to rim-protecting capabilities. That is where the following nugget from ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh becomes relevant. According to Haberstroh, opponents are shooting 28.1 percent when Howard is within two feet of a shot, which is the top mark among all centers.
Now that the Rockets' defense has entered elite territory, it's time to start dropping Dwight's name in the DPOY discussion with regularity once again.
2. Tim Duncan, PF, San Antonio Spurs
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Defensive Rating: 96.5
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 46.4
It boggles the mind, but Tim Duncan—pushing 39 years old—is in the thick of this chase.
Not only does Duncan rank third in defensive win shares (2.5) and second with an individual defensive rating of 96.5, per Basketball-Reference.com, but he also ranks tied for No. 6 overall in blocks with two per night.
Also ranking as a top-15 rim protector with seemingly no spring left in his legs, it's time we formally recognize Duncan's greatness as a defender once and for all.
As ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh reminds us, Duncan has never been able to etch "Defensive Player of the Year" on the piece of decades-old parchment that undoubtedly contains the contents of his resume.
"How many defensive player of the year awards has Duncan won in his 18-year career? The answer, sadly, is zero," Haberstroh wrote. "He should have at least two by now—he was robbed in the 2000-01, 2006-07 and probably 2005-06 seasons—but alas, he owns as many defensive player of the year awards as Tim Thomas."
Truthfully, it would be hard to argue with granting Duncan a lifetime achievement award of sorts. Especially after he kept the San Antonio Spurs afloat while the team encountered injury-induced uncertainties aplenty throughout the season's first half.
1. Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors
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Defensive Rating: 96.2
Opponents' Field-Goal Percentage at the Rim: 45.7
Go ahead and get paid, Draymond Green.
The best and most versatile defender on the league's premier defensive club, Green has quickly vaulted into the max-contract discussion while posting per-game averages of 11.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks.
But that assertion and those statistics don't jibe, right?
Wrong.
As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes explained, Green is spearheading an analytical revolution that may see him recognized with the first max deal doled out exclusively on the basis of defensive contributions:
"If Green becomes the first, he'll have earned it; we can't take that away from him. But it's also key to recognize that he picked a good point in NBA history to be an analytics darling.
In the past, we might have anecdotally noted the way Green could guard multiple positions. We might have termed him a nice role player, but a limited one. We might have looked at his cosmetic numbers and quickly concluded he wasn't a real difference-maker, and that he certainly wasn't a star.
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To Hughes' point, Green leads the league in both defensive win shares (2.7) and individual defensive rating (96.2), per Basketball-Reference.com. However, the fun only begins there.
Green is also a shockingly effective rim protector, despite being listed at 6'7''. According to NBA.com, Green is the only player shorter than 6'9'' who ranks among the league's top-10 in terms of opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim (45.7).
His ability to guard multiple positions has also allowed Golden State to embrace a tactical approach that's heavy on frenzied switches against frontcourt and backcourt players.
"We can switch a lot on pick-and-rolls," Green said following the Warriors' 105-98 win against the Dallas Mavericks back on Dec. 13, according to ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss.
"Guys can guard different positions, multiple positions, and that’s what’s made us really successful on the defensive end. It’s kind of a different look. Sometimes I’ll guard a guy as a big and play him as a big. Sometimes I’ll just switch them and play guys as a guard."
That flexibility is particularly evident in some fascinating advanced numbers brought to light by ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh:
"According to SportVU data provided to ESPN Insider, Green has defended 38 drives by point guards this season, and those 38 drives have resulted in a measly 15 points, for an average of 0.39 points per drive. The league average on points per drive: 0.63. Also: Among the 18 players who have defended at least 75 post-ups, no one has held their opponent to a lower payoff than Green (0.68 points per post-up).
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It's become accepted and convenient to look at surface-level numbers as a measure of overall defensive impact. But with such compelling metrics at our disposal, it would be irresponsible to consider anyone other than Green the favorite to capture Defensive Player of the Year honors.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current as of Jan. 19 unless noted otherwise.
