Aside from Kyrie Irving, when looking back at the 2011 NBA first-round draft picks, only Kawhi Leonard, Iman Shumpert and Kenneth Faried received first-place votes in the Rookie of the Year voting.
If you’re keeping score at home, those players ranged from pick No. 1 through pick No. 22 in last year’s draft, and only Irving was drafted in the top 10 at No. 1 overall.
Not every player taken in the first round of the draft will be in contention for the Rookie of the Year award next season. In fact, it’s more likely that half of the players taken won’t even play a relevant role on their team.
It's with this in mind that I’ll come up with an admittedly optimistic boom/bust list for every first-rounder taken in the 2012 draft.
Just to be clear, if a player is a labeled a “bust,” it doesn’t mean that said player’s career is completely written off. It simply means that his rookie year won’t lend itself to huge numbers or solid contributions.
Given past trends, that’s the likely outcome for more than 50 percent of incoming rookies, so it’s fair to assume bust over boom.