25 Biggest NBA Draft Steals of the Last 10 Years

Who are the 25 biggest draft steals in the NBA over the last 10 years? 

It's a question that has been tackled quite a few times. But no matter how many times it has been looked at before now, I guarantee that these results will be significantly different. 

You see, most people look at this question subjectively, trying to single out the players who appear to outperform the players drafted around them. They fail to look at the subject with a historical perspective. 

This is an entirely objective look at draft steals. 

Read on to see exactly what I mean. 

Introduction

We tend to have preconceived notions about what exactly it means to be a draft steal. In order to qualify, a player must have been drafted in the last few picks of the first round or at any point in the second and massively outperformed other players around them. 

That way of looking at draft steals though has led us to overvaluing some players as diamonds in the rough. The best example of this phenomenon is the curious case of Monta Ellis. The scoring stud, drafted at No. 40 in 2005 by the Golden State Warriors, is almost universally regarded as one of the biggest draft steals of the last decade, but he's really not. 

Ellis is actually just the 33rd best pick of the last decade, fitting in nicely between Ramon Sessions (No. 56 in 2007) and Leandro Barbosa (No. 28 in 2003), and as a result, will only be featured as an example on this one slide. 

Now, let me tell you how I arrived at that conclusion. 

How Draft Steals Were Determined

First of all, what exactly can teams count on when they make a draft pick? Well, unless a team releases or trades a player, they are under the team's control after the draft for up to four years, the maximum length of a rookie contract. So really, when looking at draft steals, we should focus almost exclusively on the first four years of a player's career. 

As a result, I looked at the first four years of Win Shares data for a player, as provided by basketball-reference.com. Win Shares are an advanced basketball metric calculated so that one Win Share is exactly equal to one win provided by that player to his team's cause. It's the combination of Offensive Win Shares and Defensive Win Shares, a full breakdown of which can be found on this page, called "Calculating Win Shares."

Starting with the year 1990, when the NBA Draft first introduced the current lottery system, I looked at each and every single player drafted into The Association, tracking their draft position and the amount of Win Shares they produced in their first four seasons in the league. It is important to note that I only evaluated data through the 2007 draft because the players taken in 2008-2011 have not yet played out their first four seasons in the league.

After I had data for all 1,028 players drafted from 1990-2007, I took the average number of Four-Year Win Shares for each draft position and plotted them on a scatterplot (which you can see in the embedded picture with draft position along the x-axis and Four-Year Win Shares along the y-axis).

Using a best-fit logistical regression, I found the following formula: Four-Year Win Shares = -5.836* ln (draft position) +24.537.

For the statistically inclined out there, that equation has a coefficient of determination (r^2) of 0.91024. For the non-statistically inclined, the equation fits extremely well. 

Using this formula, we can plug in a number for draft position and have the formula show how many Four-Year Win Shares a player drafted there should be expected to produce. For example, the first overall pick of a draft should produce 24.537 Win Shares while the 30th overall pick should produce 4.688. 

With that data firmly established, we can tell exactly how much players have exceeded or failed to live up to the expectations associated with the slot in which they were drafted. That can be done by subtracting the expected win shares based on the draft position from the actual number of Four-Year Win Shares that players produced. If the difference is positive, the player exceeded expectations by that much and was a bit of a steal. If the difference is negative, the player failed to live up to the expectations and was a bit of a bust. 

Now let's go back to the Monta Ellis example. 

Ellis was drafted 40th overall, so he should have been expected to produce 3.08 Four-Year Win Shares. The shooting guard actually produced 13.7 over the first four years of his career, meaning that the Golden State Warriors "stole" 10.69 Four-Year Win Shares when they drafted him. This was still a great pick, there's no denying that. It's just not quite as great as quite a few players drafted ahead of him.

It's important to realize exactly what we're looking at. As some of you may have realized, even No. 1 picks may be considered steals.

Because I was only able to look at data from 1990-2007 and I'm trying to reveal the 25 biggest draft steals of the past decade (players drafted from 2002-2011), I've included the 25 biggest draft steals from 2002-2007 and then included five potential draft steals from the previous four drafts.

Read on to find out just who they were. You will be surprised.  

Note: This project would not have been possible without the help of Shashank Bharadwaj, so I need to give some pretty massive thanks to him here. 

Potential Draft Steal: Serge Ibaka (No. 24 in 2008)

Win Shares through two seasons: 11.7

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 5.09

As you can see, Serge Ibaka is already well past the qualifications necessary to be considered a "steal." The shot-blocking machine for the Oklahoma City Thunder is nowhere near reaching his full potential even though he's already led the NBA in total blocked shots in just his second season in the league. 

Potential Draft Steal: DeJuan Blair (No. 37 in 2009)

Win Shares through two seasons: 9.3

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 3.46

Just like Serge Ibaka before him, DeJuan Blair has already established himself as a pretty big steal despite the fact that he has two more season left to accumulate Win Shares. 

When it's all said and done, the young big man for the San Antonio Spurs will be yet another diamond in the rough for the model franchise he plays for. Blair has a great mentor in the form of Tim Duncan and looks poised to ascend to greatness after averaging 8.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game during his second season in the league with limited minutes. 

Potential Draft Steal: Chase Budinger (No. 44 in 2009)

Win Shares through two seasons: 6.6

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 2.45

Chase Budinger has already surpassed his expected Four-Year Win Shares and it only took him two seasons to do so. 

As his role increases with the Houston Rockets, this talented scorer from Arizona will only improve. His remarkable scoring talents were on full display at the end of the last season and he's one of the players I think will break out the most whenever the next NBA season begins. 

Potential Draft Steal: Landry Fields (No. 39 in 2010)

Win Shares through one season: 5.3

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 3.16

After his one fantastic rookie season, Landry Fields has already surpassed his expected Four-Year Win Shares. That in itself is quite impressive for the No. 39 pick of the 2010 draft. 

It'll be interesting to see how well Fields fits in with the slower pace of the New York Knicks offense now that Carmelo Anthony is going to spend a full season playing at Madison Square Garden. But regardless, he'll be a valuable member of the team and rack up the rebounds. 

Potential Draft Steal: Darius Morris (No. 41 in 2011)

I felt as though I had to pick someone from this most recent draft to become a steal, so Darius Morris was the choice. 

In order to become the biggest steal from this class, the player had to be drafted fairly low (I don't see any true stars emerging from the top of the class that could justify being called huge steals) and has to be expected to get playing time right from the beginning of his NBA career. 

If the Los Angeles Lakers are smart, they will start this rookie from Michigan right of the bat, or at least give him significant minutes. Morris has lottery-level talent but he was taken at No. 41.

I feel pretty good about calling him a potential steal. 

25. Chris Duhon (No. 38 in 2004)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 16.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 3.3

Difference: 13.1

Drafted by the Chicago Bulls with the No. 38 pick of the 2004 NBA Draft, Chris Duhon spent the first four seasons of his career playing in The Windy City. 

Duhon actually started 73 games as a rookie and was a consistent contributor from the point guard position for each of his four seasons with the Bulls. He was never a great scorer, but he was a good all-around player on offense and a very good defender. 

24. Amar'e Stoudemire (No. 9 in 2002)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 25.3

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 11.7

Difference: 13.6

Even though Amar'e Stoudemire was drafted in the top 10 of the 2002 NBA Draft by the Phoenix Suns, he still managed to shatter any and all expectations that are associated with the ninth-overall pick. 

Stoudemire was an immediate contributor as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game during his first season at the professional level, despite the fact that he couldn't even legally consume alcohol at the time. 

Perhaps the most impressive part about Stoudemire's inclusion on this list though is the fact that he played in just three games during his fourth season, amassing only 0.1 Win Shares that year. Essentially, he earned this lofty spot with only three years of play. 

23. Dwight Howard (No. 1 in 2004)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.5

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5 

Difference: 14

Here's where I need to do a little bit of explaining. After all, to most people, it's not possible for a No. 1 pick to be considered a steal. 

But if you look at draft picks in the context that we are using in this article, they very well can be steals. After all, historically, No. 1 picks contribute a certain amount to a team on average, just like No. 50 picks do. The only difference is that the No. 1 picks are expected to contribute a lot more. 

Why should it be any different for a No. 1 pick like Dwight Howard to exceed the expectations by 14 Win Shares than it is for a Mr. Irrelevant to exceed expectations by the same amount?

It really shouldn't be.

Some of you might be thinking about responding that it's not a steal because the teams didn't have to uncover a gem in order to draft that No. 1 pick. While I completely understand that line of logic, it's irrelevant what a team had to do in order to secure the player's services. After all, we're trying to determine which players were considered steals based on how other players drafted at the same position have performed.

Dwight Howard, who averaged a double-double in each of his first four seasons in the league, deserves to be here.

He won't be the last No. 1 pick to appear.  

22. Yao Ming (No. 1 in 2002)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 39.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5

Difference: 14.9

It's hard to believe that Yao Ming outperformed Dwight Howard over the first four years of his career, but he barely did. 

The Chinese import made an immediate impact after he was drafted No. 1 overall by the Houston Rockets in 2002, averaging a stellar 13.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game during his rookie season. Thanks to his defensive play (read: thanks to his height), he was able to rack up the Win Shares during each of his first four seasons in the United States. 

21. Al Horford (No. 3 in 2007)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 33.2

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 18.1

Difference: 15.1

I remember being a little bit disappointed when the Atlanta Hawks drafted Al Horford in 2007 instead of a more glamorous player, but it worked out pretty well for them, as you can see by Horford's inclusion on this list. 

Horford is already a two-time All-Star and he's only been in the league for four seasons. With career averages of 12.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, plus the fact that he's only on the rise, Horford is going to be a very good player in the NBA for quite some time. 

20. Kyle Korver (No. 51 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 16.8

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 1.6

Difference: 15.2

Now that he's just a spot-up shooter for the Chicago Bulls, much like he was with the Utah Jazz, it's hard to remember that Kyle Korver used to be a pretty solid all-around player. 

Even though he started only 101 games during his first four seasons in the NBA, all with the Philadelphia 76ers, Korver made a pretty sizable impact during that time. His best season, which remains his best to this day, was his second campaign when he averaged 11.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.3 steals per game. 

19. Kirk Hinrich (No. 7 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 29

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 13.2

Difference: 15.8

The all-time leader in three-pointers made for the Chicago Bulls, Kirk Hinrich started off his career in the starting lineup and never really let go of that role. 

He improved during each of his four seasons, topping out at a 10.6 Win Share season in his fourth campaign after averaging 16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game. 

18. Chris Bosh (No. 4 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 32.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 16.4

Difference: 16

Another one of the players who exceeded expectations in the draft class of 2003 was the No. 4 overall pick: Chris Bosh. 

Bosh has played all but one of his seasons with the Toronto Raptors, starting at least 63 games in each and every one. It only took the big man three years to break the 20 points per game barrier as he averaged 11.5 per contest as a rookie, then 16.8, then 22.5. 

17. Carl Landry (No. 31 in 2007)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 21.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4.5

Difference: 16.9

A second-round pick in 2007, Carl Landry has absolutely played like a first-round pick during his only four seasons in the NBA. 

After he was technically drafted by the Seattle SuperSonics, Landry was traded to the Houston Rockets, where he played for two full seasons without starting a single game. Since then, he's earned a starting role with the Sacramento Kings and, most recently, the New Orleans Hornets. 

So far, his finest season has been his third campaign, in which he earned 7.7 Win Shares while averaging 16.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game. 

16. Kevin Durant (No. 2 in 2007)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.2

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 20.5

Difference: 17.7

Portland Trail Blazers fans are probably going to hate seeing Kevin Durant on this slideshow, but the two-time scoring champion has blown away the expectations that come with the No. 2 pick. 

It doesn't help that Greg Oden has been a massive bust either. The former Ohio State star, for those of you that are curious, is actually the fourth-worst pick since 1990.

Ouch.  

15. Tayshaun Prince (No. 23 in 2002)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 24.7

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.2

Difference: 18.5

Even though he's no longer an elite player, Tayshaun Prince definitely once was. 

After he was drafted at No. 23 in 2002 by the Detroit Pistons, Prince didn't get much of a chance to make an impact during his rookie season, playing in just 42 games and starting only five. 

But he seized his opportunity during his next year of play and never looked back. Prince started 80 games that season and then started all 82 games for each of the next five campaigns. 

14. Kevin Martin (No. 26 in 2004)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 24.2

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 5.5

Difference: 18.7

Now here's a name that you probably expected to see come up. 

An incredible offensive talent, Kevin Martin was drafted out of Western Carolina by the Sacramento Kings with the No. 26 pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. 

Although his rookie season didn't go too well, Martin managed to average 20.2 points per game during his third season in the league and then 23.7 per contest during his fourth. 

13. Danny Granger (No. 17 in 2005)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 26.9

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 8

Difference: 18.9

Danny Granger certainly wasn't expected to become a superstar when the Indiana Pacers drafted him 17th-overall in 2005, but a superstar is exactly what he's become.

Still playing with the Pacers, Granger is still building upon an incredible four-year start to his career.

12. Carlos Boozer (No. 34 in 2002)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 22.9

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4

Difference: 18.9

Hopefully I didn't upset too many people by including a picture of Carlos Boozer barking at the rafters in a Cleveland Cavaliers jersey. But then again, Boozer did spend two of the first four years of his career with the team that drafted him in the second round of the 2002 NBA Draft. 

Although he was hampered by injuries in his third and fourth seasons (both with the Utah Jazz), Boozer still managed to accumulate enough Win Shares to earn this placement. 

Most of that success is due to his sophomore season, in which he averaged 15.5 points, 11.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. 

11. Andre Iguodala (No. 9 in 2004)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 31.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 11.7

Difference: 19.7

It seems that no one is quite sure how to value Andre Iguodala as a player. Some people seem to think he's overrated because of his lack of ability to carry a team, while others think he's underrated because of his all-around game and stellar perimeter defense. 

I am very sure though that Iggy was a steal of a draft pick at No. 9, the slot in which the Philadelphia 76ers acquired him in the 2004 NBA Draft. 

Right from the get-go, Iguodala started for the 76ers. He was announced as a starter 82 times during three of his first four seasons, missing six due to injury in his third year in the NBA. In addition to receiving starts, Iguodala was always productive, stuffing the stat-sheet just like he does now. 

10. Josh Howard (No. 29 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 25.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4.9

Difference: 20.5

Although Josh Howard didn't make a huge impact as a rookie with the Dallas Mavericks, he made his presence felt in each of the next three seasons. 

Howard put up the best season of his career during his fourth season in Dallas, averaging 18.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists. While he had better offensive numbers the next year, his defense took a serious turn for the worse, thus making the fourth season the best. 

9. Marc Gasol (No. 48 in 2007)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 22.7

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 1.9

Difference: 20.8

Marc Gasol is currently one of the top players on the free agent market after a breakout performance during the 2011 NBA Playoffs and has a chance to surpass Pau Gasol for the unofficial title of "Best Player with the Last Name Gasol" as soon as this next season. 

But what makes that all the more impressive is that Gasol has already dramatically exceeded what anyone could have expected when the Los Angeles Lakers drafted him 48th-overall in 2007. 

Even though Gasol was drafted in 2007 (and is thus eligible for this slideshow), he's only played three seasons in the NBA, all with the Memphis Grizzlies. 

After putting up Win Share seasons of 6.4, 8.4 and 7.9 during his first three seasons, if Gasol earns a hypothetical 8.5 Win Shares this next season, he'd easily rank second on this list. Don't be surprised when that happens. 

8. David Lee (No. 30 in 2005)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 26

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4.7

Difference: 21.3

Although he has a surprising amount of difficulty recovering from tooth-in-elbow injuries, David Lee doesn't have trouble producing when he's healthy. 

Even though he didn't become a regular starter until his fourth year in the league, Lee still managed to thrive as an offensive force when he was in the game. For example, he managed to average a double-double during his second year in the NBA despite starting just 12 games over the course of the entire season. 

7. Brandon Roy (No. 6 in 2006)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 35.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 14.1

Difference: 21.3

Fortunately for Brandon Roy, he actually had knees to play with during each of his first four seasons in the NBA. 

After he was drafted sixth-overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves and traded immediately to the Portland Trail Blazers, Roy didn't take long to get going. He averaged 16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game as a rookie, starting 55 of the 57 games he played in. 

Roy only improved from there. 

6. Rajon Rondo (No. 21 in 2006)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 29.2

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.8

Difference: 22.4

It's hard to believe that a point guard as skilled at distributing the ball and playing defense as Rajon Rondo could possibly slip to No. 21 in the 2006 NBA Draft. 

But slip he did and Rondo has made the 20 teams that passed on him seriously regret it.

Never much of a scorer, Rondo has used defense and passing to his advantage, almost hitting double-digit Win Shares in both his third and fourth seasons in the league. 

5. Paul Millsap (No. 47 in 2006)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 24.9

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 2.1

Difference: 22.8

Of the last five draft steals in this slideshow, Paul Millsap is one of just two that would be considered steals in the traditional sense. 

The undersized big man for the Utah Jazz wasn't taken until No. 46 in the 2006 NBA Draft and only started a total of 49 games during his first four seasons in the NBA. But despite his lack of glamour, Millsap still managed to contribute immensely to the team's cause. 

A producer on both sides of the ball, Millsap had his best season in 2008-2009 when he started 38 games, averaging 13.5 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. 

4. Dwyane Wade (No. 5 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.8

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 15.1

Difference: 23.7

Dwyane Wade as the fourth-biggest draft steal of the past decade? Whaaaaaaat?

I'll admit that I was a bit surprised when I saw Wade's name come up near the top of the list, but then I realized that it was actually justified. 

After all, Wade's third season in the league resulted in him earning 14.4 Win Shares that season alone, nearly justifying his draft position entirely in just one year. Add in the other three campaigns, all of which were quite impressive, and Wade easily earns his status as a steal. 

3. LeBron James (No. 1 in 2003)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 49.4

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5

Difference: 24.9

And now comes the player who will surely earn the most complaints, even though he ranks just No. 3 on this list. Remember, LeBron James' inclusion is purely objective. Had I not run the numbers myself, I would never have dreamed about even thinking of James as a draft steal. 

But it's amazing just how good James was during his first four seasons in the league. Since 1990, only one player (who will not yet be named) has surpassed James' Four-Year Win Shares total of 49.4. 

That number is absolutely sickening. Because of the controversy that King James always invokes, I'll give you the full breakdown of his numbers. 

Year One: 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks resulted in 5.1 Win Shares. 

Year Two: 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.2 steals and 0.7 blocks resulted in 14.3 Win Shares.

Year Three: 31.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks resulted in 16.3 Win Shares. 

Year Four: 27.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks resulted in 13.7 Win Shares. 

Yes, LeBron was a No. 1 overall pick. But he's been ridiculously impressive, even for someone taken first in a draft. 

2. Luis Scola (No. 55 in 2002)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 26.9

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 1.2 

Difference: 25.7

Now we go from a No. 1 pick to a No. 55 pick. 

Luis Scola was drafted near the end of the 2002 NBA Draft by the San Antonio Spurs but didn't make his NBA debut until 2007 with the Houston Rockets. 

But as a rookie, Scola averaged 15.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game and then never looked back. Now he has four years of experience in the league and has firmly established himself as a premier forward in the league. 

Even though there were 54 players drafted ahead of him in 2002 alone, Scola has put up more Four-Year Win Shares than all but 15 players over the last decade. 

1. Chris Paul (No. 4 in 2005)

Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 55.3

Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 16.4

Difference: 38.9

When I entered in all the data for this project and finally got to hit sort on my Excel spreadsheet, I had absolutely no idea what to expect. But when Chris Paul's name popped up at the top of the list, I was absolutely stunned. 

After I picked up my jaw off the floor and did a double-take, I looked back through the data to make sure I didn't make a mistake. But upon a closer look, I realized the only mistake I had made was not really understanding just how much of an impact CP3 made during his first few seasons in the league. 

Sidenote: As an Atlanta Hawks fan, I am now even more upset about the Marvin Williams pick in 2005.

Paul bust onto the NBA scene as a rookie, averaging 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 2.2 steals and 0.1 blocks per game. That first season resulted in 10.4 Win Shares for him.

During his next season, Paul averaged 17.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 8.9 assists and 1.8 steals per game, good enough for another 8.8 Win Shares. His third season though was by far his best as he averaged 20.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, a league-leading 11.6 assists, a league-leading 2.7 steals and 0.1 blocks per game.

That season gave him an additional 17.8 Win Shares, a total that led the entire NBA. It is also worth noting that those 17.8 Win Shares alone exceeded the expectations that come with the territory when a player is drafted at No. 4.

Paul had one more season to rack up Four-Year Win Shares and did, adding another 18.3 after averaging 22.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, a league-leading 11.0 assists, a league-leading 2.8 steals and 0.1 blocks per game.

Through four seasons, Paul accumulated an astonishing 55.3 Win Shares, a total that is unmatched by any other player drafted in 1990 to the present day. Just for the record, Michael Jordan "only" accumulated 53.6 Four-Year Win Shares, a total that is slightly depressed because of the foot injury he suffered during his second season, one that limited him to just 18 games.

These numbers leave CP3 as the biggest draft steal of the past decade.

It's really not even close.  

Adam Fromal is a syndicated writer and Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on  Twitter.

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