Metrics 101: The Most Undervalued NBA Free Agent at Every Position
LeBron James will inevitably serve as a primary free-agent target for a number of talent-hungry NBA teams in the summer of 2018. Plenty of franchises will be hoping for a shot at Kevin Durant or Chris Paul, though neither player is likely to leave his current situation. Clint Capela and DeMarcus Cousins are about to make a lot of money for their work at center.
But what if you're looking for bargains, scraping further down the free-agency barrel to unearth some overlooked gems?
To make an informed—albeit still subjective—decision at each of the five traditional positions, we're turning to the formula for Player Score used in previous articles.
For every player in the NBA who logged even a single minute during 2017-18, we pulled scores in four different overarching metrics: NBA Math's total points added (TPA), ESPN.com's real plus/minus wins (RPM Wins), player efficiency rating (PER) and win shares (WS). The first two look at volume/efficiency combinations, while the third focuses on per-possession effectiveness and favors offensive production. The fourth element rewards those whose individual merits lead to more victories. Volume and time on the court matter more than they might in other evaluations.
To standardize four numbers that operate on drastically different scales, we found the z-scores in each category and summed them to find a player's total score. The cumulative z-scores comprise Player Score, which you an see listed for each player and parenthetically included for the free agents ranked above and below.
These five contributors all boast positive marks, and they each rank more prominently than you might expect based on pure name recognition and reputation. If your team lands one of them (assuming the price tag doesn't rise astronomically), it likely found an offseason gem.
Point Guard: Fred VanVleet
1 of 5
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 3.2
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Chris Paul (10.32)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: David Stockton (0.92), Shabazz Napier (0.87), Yogi Ferrell (0.67), Rajon Rondo (0.34), Elfrid Payton (0.32)
Though Fred VanVleet struggled to get healthy and then couldn't find his shot during the Toronto Raptors' brief playoff run, don't let that dissuade you from viewing him as a top option at the point in this year's free-agent class. Once Chris Paul inevitably returns to the Houston Rockets, the crop dries up quickly.
Rajon Rondo, Elfrid Payton and Shabazz Napier are intriguing options at various stages of their careers. Isaiah Thomas could bounce back from a miserable season. David Stockton probably won't get much love, as his stock and score are boosted by success in a remarkably small sample. But VanVleet could be the savior of this class.
The 24-year-old has come a long way since leaving Wichita State and going undrafted. He's emerging from a breakout season in which he proved himself as a distinct two-way threat. Not only can he hold his own defensively with grit, determination and the lateral quickness necessary to overcome the limitations of his 6'0" frame, but he has also developed into an offensive threat who rarely makes mistakes.
Toronto head coach Dwane Casey frequently relied upon VanVleet in crunch-time scenarios, pairing him with the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and trusting him to make the right decisions. The backup floor general understood how to free himself on the perimeter in off-ball situations, rarely gambled with minuscule passing lanes and served as a steady presence who prevented the Raptors from devolving back into their isolation-heavy ways of the past (until the playoffs, that is).
VanVleet's net rating in clutch situations—which NBA.com defines as the last five minutes of games separated by no more than five points—throughout the regular season stood at 4.2, which lagged behind only the marks of OG Anunoby (19.7) and Lorenzo Brown (166.7) among all Raptors. But when you factor in playing time—Brown (one minute) and Anunoby (31 minutes) lagged well behind VanVleet (97 minutes)—the young 1-guard may well have been the Raptors' premier crunch-time contributor.
Shooting Guard: Joe Harris
2 of 5
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Age: 26
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 1.05
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Tyreke Evans (4.34), Will Barton (3.77), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2.93), JJ Redick (2.78), Wayne Ellington (1.18)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Danny Green (0.92), Marcus Smart (minus-0.04), Marco Belinelli (minus-0.1), Austin Rivers (minus-0.27), Devin Harris (minus-0.32)
The futility of the lowly Brooklyn Nets prevented Joe Harris from getting much love throughout the 2017-18 campaign, but the 26-year-old quietly emerged as one of the league's most dangerous shooters. And that's true whether you look at the totality of his percentages or isolate his work from beyond the arc.
Let's begin by diving into the former.
Knocking down 49.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, 41.9 percent of his triples and 82.7 percent of his free-throw attempts, Harris finished 2017-18 with a lofty 63.4 true shooting percentage. Only a dozen players who qualified for the scoring crown wound up posting a higher mark, and Kyle Korver and Kevin Durant were the only two to do so while spending the majority of their minutes at a position other than power forward or center.
Looking at this another way, Harris joined Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Montrezl Harrell, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela as one of only six qualified players to average 10 or more points with a true shooting percentage north of 63. Last year, Korver, Capela, Durant, Jordan, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic were the lone members of that same club.
Harris' three-point shooting might be even more impressive, since his 41.9 percent conversion rate came while he took 4.6 attempts per game and created 5.3 percent of his makes off the bounce. Only Stephen Curry, Durant, Buddy Hield, Joe Ingles and JJ Redick could match or exceed each of those three figures in 2017-18.
Oh, and this is all stemming from the season-long tallies. After the All-Star break, Harris slashed a mind-numbing 54.3/47.8/88.2.
Teams could covet Harris' under-control drives to the hoop. They could want him to continue playing improved defense. But in reality, they'll primarily seek out his under-the-radar ability to serve as one of the Association's most accurate marksmen.
Small Forward: Kyle Anderson
3 of 5
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 7.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks
Player Score: 5.36
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: LeBron James (17.27), Kevin Durant (10.14), Paul George (7.63)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Trevor Ariza (3.2), Jerami Grant (1.32), Rudy Gay (1.11), Luc Mbah a Moute (0.67), Jeff Green (0.38)
Kyle Anderson isn't a perfect player.
The slow-footed small forward can become an offensive liability when his perimeter stroke isn't clicking, as was the case during the San Antonio Spurs' first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors. He can struggle to create his own looks against athletic defenses, and his clangs on corner threes allow foes to cheat off of him and help cut off his teammates' driving lanes.
But Anderson still spent the vast majority of the 2017-18 season showcasing his improved offensive game for the Spurs.
Even if his three-point percentage fell from 37.5 in 2016-17 to a disappointing 33.3 this past season—which does offer hope of positive regression moving forward—he made up for the slippage by improving as a secondary distributor. He also learned how to excel on both mid-range pull-ups and close-range touch shots around the painted area.
Anderson wasn't a noteworthy asset on offense when he wasn't serving as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, but average play allowed him to maximize his impact on defense. That's where he shines brightest, after all.
With the lanky arms necessary to capitalize upon his mental acuity, Anderson can disrupt passing lanes, recover against quicker players who get an initial step on him and switch to guard multiple positions. Plenty of numbers work in his favor, as well.
The Spurs were 2.1 points per 100 possessions stingier when the UCLA product was on the floor. Narrowly edging out impossibly long point guard Dejounte Murray, Anderson had San Antonio's top score in defensive box plus/minus. Only 15 players throughout the NBA earned superior marks in ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus.
It's time to accept Anderson as a legitimate defensive ace.
Power Forward: Montrezl Harrell
4 of 5
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.7 blocks
Player Score: 3.59
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Derrick Favors (5.01), Thaddeus Young (3.88), Julius Randle (3.84)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Dirk Nowitzki (2.69), David West (2.58), Anthony Tolliver (2.49), Amir Johnson (2.25), Ed Davis (1.84)
Yes, we're cheating a bit here.
Montrezl Harrell primarily functioned as a center during the 2017-18 season. Basketball Reference shows that only 32 percent of his minutes came at the 4, while Cleaning the Glass indicates a 25/75 split between power forward and center. Either way, we're talking about a young big who can play at both spots and whose 6'8" frame leaves him rather undersized at the pivot, which means other organizations could be eyeing a position shift if they're able to steal him away from the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers saw exactly what Harrell could do during the stretch run. Though he continued coming off the pine after the All-Star break, he still averaged 14.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.6 blocks while shooting 65.8 percent from the field. Even more importantly, Los Angeles outscored opponents by 2.3 points per 100 possessions when he played—a stark contrast to the minus-5.5 net rating it earned while he was on the bench alongside head coach Doc Rivers.
Harrell still needs to improve in myriad areas—passing, mid-range shooting, conditioning and interior defense chief among them. But as an energy guy who makes an impact on the boards, thrives out of the post (he finished in the 84.3rd percentile for post-up points per possession) and excels as a devastating, above-the-rim roll man (94.7 percentile), he's valuable either as the first big off the bench or a complementary starter.
Plus, the gritty nature with which he plays is just fun to watch. That's harder to quantify, but the enthusiasm factor should fall in line with all of the other largely positive metrics that validate what the Clippers saw during Harrell's breakout campaign.
Center: Kyle O'Quinn
5 of 5
Type of Free Agency: Player Option
Age: 28
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 7.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.3 blocks
Player Score: 3.91
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Nikola Jokic (12.24), Clint Capela (7.19), DeMarcus Cousins (6.05), DeAndre Jordan (5.84), Enes Kanter (4.77)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Jusuf Nurkic (3.05), Alex Len (1.71), Brook Lopez (1.71), Dewayne Dedmon (1.57), Greg Monroe (1.55)
Kye O'Quinn has never been a wholly traditional center, but he's kept finding ways to contribute. This season, he rose up the New York Knicks depth chart with his passing, which allowed him to find open shooters out of the post and handle the ball near the rainbow while keeping his eyes up for cutters.
"We love his passing. I think his consistency this year has been probably greater than it ever has been in his career," former Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek said in April, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley. "That's one thing that we were kind of striving for with him. Again he came in the beginning of the year and he wanted to earn those minutes and he took them. I think he's had a great year."
It was a great year, indeed.
Though O'Quinn's career-best 4.1 dimes per 36 minutes may be the most noteworthy part of his statistical profile, he also showed precious few weaknesses. He knocked down 58.2 percent of his field-goal attempts while putting more aggression around the hoop on full display. He continued to serve as a tremendous per-minute rebounder, as well as an interior presence who could frustrate the opposition into misses. He even connected on 46.8 percent of his two-point jumpers from at least 10 feet.
That well-rounded nature allows him to flourish as an overlooked—and often underutilized—center off the pine. He's capable of excelling alongside a plethora of lineup combinations that call upon him to serve as either a secondary playmaker, a stalwart interior defender or a floor-spacing mid-range shooter.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games May 8.
