How the Top 10 Players Not in the NBA Playoffs Can Make It Next Season
Maybe this will help ease the pain a little bit.
Not one of these 10 players was able to steer his team into the 2018 NBA postseason, leaving them universally disqualified from the top-50 rankings compiled by myself and Dan Favale. You can't be one of the 50 best in the playoffs when you're not in the playoffs.
Still, simply showing up as one of the 10 best lottery finishers—evaluated not retrospectively, but based on expected level of play if they were all healthy and ready to contribute right now—won't assuage all the wounds. That's why the focus now rests not on why they deserve such lofty placement among the many contributors watching postseason battles from afar, but on what they can do to change the narrative in 2018-19.
Some need to stay healthy. Others need to continue their red-hot play from the second half of the just-finished campaign. Members of another group desperately need to experience growth around them, though cap space and draft positioning don't always allow for easy offseason improvement. Oh, and we're not just saying these guys need to get traded in order to taste the playoffs; that's too much of a cop-out.
Now, let the optimism begin.
10. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
1 of 10
Age: 33
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.4 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 17.4 player efficiency rating (PER), 1.58 Real Plus-Minus (RPM), 71.41 Total Points Added (TPA)
Marc Gasol quite clearly isn't the same player he was during his peak years.
Though his game has always been predicated upon a cerebral understanding of positioning on both ends of the floor, he couldn't win games with only his brain. Slower movement has hindered him from getting to those necessary spots in split-second fashion as he so often did during previous go-rounds, surprising opponents by already being in the right place before they'd even realized what the right place was.
Nonetheless, Gasol was still effective while surrounded by a lackluster supporting cast crippled by injuries. He remains one of the league's best passing bigs, can impact a play with his defensive instincts and has stuck as a go-to scoring threat—albeit a more inefficient one than in the past. He's deft enough both offensively and defensively to run the pivot for a team that could get back into the playoff picture.
But that's now wholly dependent on the Grizzlies' front office, which could lose Tyreke Evans to unrestricted free-agency pursuits and has precious few ways of rebuilding in an expeditious fashion. To get back into the mix in a brutal Western Conference, Memphis not only has to stay healthy (here's looking at you, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons), but also strike gold with its likely top-five pick and find another gem like Evans on the open market.
Good luck!
Honorable Mentions: Tyreke Evans, Tobias Harris, DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Murray, Lou Williams
9. Paul Millsap, PF, Denver Nuggets
2 of 10
Age: 33
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.2 blocks
Could Paul Millsap's wrist injury have left him with a tougher schedule?
The acclimatization process alongside Nikola Jokic was always going to be difficult, since it would inevitably require adjustments from both All-Star-caliber big men. But Millsap went down in mid-November, just when he and the Denver Nuggets' starting center were beginning to develop a bond. When he returned against the Los Angeles Clippers on Feb. 27, he had to enter a playoff push and a system that had undergone distinct alterations, then figure out how to change his role when Gary Harris suffered an injury.
Nonetheless, the Millsap-Jokic connection was a strong one.
This power forward is showing signs of decline on both ends, and it's unlikely he'll resume playing at the level at which he operated with the Atlanta Hawks. But his pump fake still frees up space within the half-court set, and his defensive versatility should increase the effectiveness of Denver's overall point-preventing schemes. All the while, he'll get to build upon the frontcourt foundation he started to forge in 2017-18.
The Nuggets only missed out on a playoff berth after losing a de facto play-in game against the Minnesota Timberwolves (in overtime, of course) on the final day of the season. But imagine if Millsap and Jokic had gotten to share the court for more than 869 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler, for example, spent 1,849 minutes alongside one another, despite the latter suffering a significant malady of his own.
Per PBPStats.com, the 9.4 net rating earned with both Millsap and Jokic indicates playoff-lock status.
8. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
3 of 10
Age: 30
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 15.4 PER, minus-0.65 RPM, minus-16.96 TPA
The same plan for playoff re-entry holds true for Mike Conley as it did for Marc Gasol, since both are locked into Memphis Grizzlies uniforms throughout the foreseeable future, barring unexpected trades that plunge the Beale Street residents into a full-fledged rebuild. But the responsibilities of this point guard are even more important for the ascension, seeing as his injury issues served as one of the major roadblocks standing between Memphis and 2017-18 success.
Conley's getting to the age at which we have to be scared about the possibility of an unstaveoffable decline. He'll celebrate his 31st birthday just before the start of the 2018-19 campaign, and that's the magical number at which so many floor generals fall off a cliff, no longer able to maintain the speed necessary to burst by younger defenders or sustain the physicality required to bang around with trees on drives into the painted area.
This particular 1-guard is talented enough to buck the trend, though.
His shooting stroke had disappeared before the Grizz shut him down for the year, but that feels more like an aberration than a red flag. After all, the 2016-17 calendar saw him score a career-best 20.5 points per game while slashing 46.0/40.8/85.9, and it sure seemed like he'd turned the corner and figured out how to become a reliable marksman.
If that Conley returns, the rest of the roster composition might not even matter. He and Gasol alone would elevate this squad's ceiling into the realm of playoff contenders—not locks, but contenders.
7. Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns
4 of 10
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 24.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 18.1 PER, minus-0.95 RPM, 19.49 TPA
"I'm done with not making the playoffs," Devin Bookers told the Associated Press after the Phoenix Suns' 2017-18 efforts had reached a conclusion, per Yahoo Sports. "I'm serious. This is probably my last year ever not making the playoffs. If that's putting pressure on myself, I'm going to take this summer and work that hard so that it doesn't happen again."
We have bad news.
Of the 10 players honored throughout this article, Booker is the least likely to move from the lottery to the postseason in 2018-19. And that's not a knock on him now that he's emerged as a top-50 player who scores with ever-increasing efficiency. He can carry a squad during any given game...which isn't something you can say about anyone else on the Phoenix roster.
Maybe Josh Jackson builds upon a strong second half and emerges as another stud. But what next? Are you counting on Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and any incoming rookies while trying to make a quantum leap up the standings and challenge the deep field of postseason candidates? Are you expecting the desert-based franchise to strike gold in free agency when most prominent players want to join already-competitive organizations?
The Suns should be better in 2018-19. There's no doubt about that. Booker should be better, as well. He's already upped his true shooting percentage from 53.1 to 56.1 while scoring more points and becoming more involved as a facilitator. But unless he becomes a two-way star capable of challenging for top-10 placement (yes, after bringing the playoff troops back into the equation), he's dreaming a bit too big.
6. Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets
5 of 10
Age: 23
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks
Had Gary Harris remained healthy, would the Denver Nuggets have made the playoffs?
The team's second-best player ended up missing 11 of the season's final 13 outings, which was problematic for a squad fighting for its postseason life. Had he been in the lineup, imbuing the Mile High City with his three-point prowess and lockdown perimeter abilities, Denver might have already locked up a berth before entering a play-in game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on the season's final night.
We can't say that definitively, of course. Anything can happen. But Denver was 5.8 points per 100 possessions better with Harris on the court this season, giving him the roster's third-best on/off split, behind only Jamal Murray (7.1) and Nikola Jokic (9.9). With him in working order, some sort of improvement seems like a safe bet, and even the tiniest amount could have yielded a postseason appearance.
Now, the Nuggets head toward an offseason in which they should keep trending upward.
Devin Harris, Will Barton, Richard Jefferson and Torrey Craig are coming off the books, while Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler will have the ability to opt out and seek new deals. But with the team likely declining Jokic's team option and immediately inking him to a max deal, it won't have the financial firepower necessary to pursue many external upgrades.
On the flip side, Harris (23), Murray (21) and Jokic (23) still make for one of the league's youngest and most promising triumvirates, and Paul Millsap will be back as well. Throw in internal improvement from other up-and-comers such as Trey Lyles, as well as another first-round pick in the lottery of a loaded draft, and there's no reason to expect anything less than an 83rd game in 2018-19.
5. Blake Griffin, PF, Detroit Pistons
6 of 10
Age: 29
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 21.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 19.6 PER, 1.98 RPM, 110.91 TPA
Though Blake Griffin was brought aboard to help buoy the Detroit Pistons' chances at getting back into the playoffs, he disappointed in his new location.
The per-game stats you can read above are actually a bit misleading, as this power forward averaged 19.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.4 blocks while shooting 43.3 percent from the field, 34.8 percent from downtown and 78.4 percent from the stripe in a Detroit uniform. Head coach Stan Van Gundy turned him into more of a perimeter player than ever before, and that made for a roller-coaster ride of a second half while Griffin tried to get comfortable.
But fortunately for the Pistons, the change bodes well going forward.
Andre Drummond is at his best when surrounded by floor-spacing talents, and Griffin occupying areas around the three-point arc will inevitably help out. Already, the two earned a 2.4 net rating when sharing the court, per PBPStats.com, and they'll look to build upon that in 2018-19.
Build they shall.
Griffin still has plenty of athleticism left in the reserves, and a year of continuity will serve him well as he spends the offseason continuing to hone his three-point stroke. Drummond is only getting better. Reggie Jackson—should he stay healthy—is a decent starting point guard. Beyond the biggest names, the Motor City has some upside plays (Stanley Johnson and Luke Kennard), as well as established lesser contributors playing steady basketball (Reggie Bullock, Ish Smith, Langston Galloway and, if re-signed, Anthony Tolliver).
The Pistons might not have the offseason flexibility necessary to make a monumental leap, but betting against them will make for a difficult proposition with a full season of the Drummond-Griffin tandem.
4. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
7 of 10
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 15.0 points, 16.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.6 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 22.9 PER, 1.53 RPM, 289.35 TPA
Let's assume that the Blake Griffin-Andre Drummond pairing continues to improve, giving the Detroit Pistons one of the NBA's elite frontcourts. If that's the case, the Motor City should get to witness at least a few playoff games, given the relative weakness of the Eastern Conference.
But what can this 24-year-old center do to raise the likelihood of that possibility?
Truthfully, it may not be up to him. Drummond is objectively one of this season's most improved players, making strides in just about every facet of the game. He's continued to develop as a game-changing rebounder, showed heretofore unseen passing skills, shored up his biggest weakness at the charity stripe and started attacking with even more ferocity on the interior.
Sure, some shooting range would be nice. The Pistons wouldn't mind if he could score more than 0.83 points per possession out of the post, which left him in the 40.2 percentile during 2017-18. But the biggest area of growth involves his role, since the acquisition of the ball-dominant Griffin pushed him into the painted area more frequently and limited the time he could spend operating as a facilitator.
Despite playing fewer minutes in Detroit victories, Drummond averaged 0.3 more assists than in losses. He sparked the offense with his ability to haul in a defensive board and push the rock up the floor in transition. He created easy opportunities for his teammates by setting up at the top of the key, drawing an opposing big toward the perimeter and taking advantage of the vacated space with on-target feeds to cutters.
But we didn't see that nearly as much in the second half of the season, and that has to change in order for Drummond to continue his upward movement and secure a postseason spot for the second time of his NBA tenure.
3. Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks
8 of 10
Age: 22
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 22.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.4 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 20.4 PER, 2.42 RPM, minus-21.92 TPA
At first, even entertaining the possibility of the New York Knicks rising into the 2019 playoffs seems like a foolhardy endeavor. Despite starting the 2017-18 season in promising fashion, the organization saw its hopes quickly derailed even before embarking on a downward spiral toward the end of the calendar.
Rookie Frank Ntilikina (19) showed promising signs on both ends of the floor and already looked the part of a stud defender, but asking him to lead a team at this young stage of his career is aggressive. Though Enes Kanter, Kyle O'Quinn, Trey Burke and Courtney Lee often seemed like they were fighting to be viewed as the best healthy player after the All-Star break, those aren't the types of names you want serving as your second-best contributor.
Even if the Knicks don't land LeBron James or another marquee free agent, and even if they select a project near the top of the 2018 NBA draft, those concerns could still be nullified—at least partially—by a version of Kristaps Porzingis who doesn't show any lingering ill effects after completing his ACL rehabilitation. The Latvian 7-footer is that good.
Porzingis still has notable flaws in his game, as you'd expect from any 22-year-old. Most notably, he subscribes to the Carmelo Anthony gunner mentality a bit too frequently and needs to learn both how to take better shots and how to involve his teammates—something that should happen as he's surrounded by more talent and is no longer tasked with serving as both alpha and beta dog.
But how many big men can hit 39.5 percent of their triples, create their own looks off the bounce in perimeter situations and stifle the opposition at the rim? The answer is simple: not many.
Prior to his season-ending injury, the Knicks had a positive net rating when Porzingis played. And that alone offers hope.
2. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
9 of 10
Age: 27
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 22.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 20.6 PER, 3.74 RPM, 179.48 TPA
Their 36-46 record, leaving them in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, might not indicate as much, but the Charlotte Hornets weren't that far away from postseason inclusion. They were one of 10 squads in their half of the NBA with a positive net rating on the season, indicating that some bad luck was to blame for falling so far below the .500 benchmark.
Still, improvement is necessary if Kemba Walker wants to return to the playoffs. And he's motivated to get there.
"At this point, I want to win. I want to be in the playoffs," the dynamic floor general told Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer in late March. "I'm tired of not being in the playoffs. ... I hate watching them on TV. I've been there twice in seven years, and it's just not fun [missing out]."
Walker playing at a higher level is a tough ask, though. He's already mastered the pick-and-roll game now that he's a deadly marksman from beyond the rainbow, forcing defenders to pick their poison between his arc-to-rim speed and pull-up game. The lone weakness comes on defense. But the Hornets need his offense far more, which requires energy expenditures that prevent him from having too much left in the tank for the stopping end.
So the question shifts to the million-dollar inquiry: Can Charlotte improve the roster around Walker?
The Hornets don't figure to have any cap space for big-name acquisitions in free agency unless they can somehow move Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard, Marvin Williams or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Moreover, their top pick of the 2018 NBA draft will come just outside the top 10 unless ping-pong balls bounce exactly the right way.
In other words, Walker needs to spend a lot of gym time with Cody Zeller, Jeremy Lamb and Malik Monk this offseason, since internal improvement is the Hornets' best chance.
1. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
10 of 10
Age: 23
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 24.4 PER, 5.65 RPM, 349.79 TPA
At this point, we've established how the Denver Nuggets can make the 2019 playoffs during our focuses on Gary Harris and Paul Millsap—two players who will need to stay healthy throughout the next campaign. So let's instead concentrate on something else that could aid the pursuit.
If Nikola Jokic plays like he did after the 2018 All-Star break, the Nuggets will be able to sleepwalk into the postseason—the overwhelming strength of the Western Conference be damned.
From the midseason classic until Game 82 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, this star center averaged a scorching 21.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks while shooting 52.5 percent from the field, 45.9 percent from downtown and 85.0 percent from the stripe. Those are outrageous numbers, indicative of unquestionably celestial status.
Even more importantly, those figures translated into wins.
After the All-Star break, the Nuggets posted a minus-9.8 net rating without Jokic on the floor—most comparable to the season-long efforts of the No. 30 Phoenix Suns (minus-9.7). When he played, Denver started operating like a slightly worse version of the No. 3 Toronto Raptors (7.6) with a 6.6 net rating, giving this center—rather easily—the rotation's best on/off splits.
Would it be nice if Harris and Millsap stayed healthy? Of course. Would the Nuggets prefer for their many young talents to continue getting better? Sure. Would finding a stud in the upcoming draft be advantageous? No doubt.
But if Jokic spends all of 2018-19 operating like he did during this season's stretch run, those improvements will just be gravy.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current through the end of the regular season.
