NBA Teams Entering Make-or-Break Stretches at 2016-17 Quarter-Season Mark
There's no real pressure during the NBA regular season, right? Certainly not before Christmas Day, with the playoffs still four months away.
Try telling that to the teams whose 2016-17 campaigns (and more) already hang in the balance one way or another.
With about one-quarter of the schedule having come and gone, injuries have imperiled some squads' long-term hopes and dreams. For others, tough schedules have set them back. For a select group, both of those factors have conspired to compound each other.
That's not to say these seven clubs are doomed to come up short of their respective goals, whether that means snagging a top seed or just sneaking into the postseason. Too many games are left to be played, and too many twists and turns to be taken, for anything to be set in stone.
But the challenges faced thus far and the obstacles to come make it clear that, while these teams can't fulfill their biggest ambitions until April and beyond, they can fall out of reach well before then without careful attention.
Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers don't belong on this list, right? They're comfortably in the Western Conference playoff picture, just a stone's throw behind the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs.
But as with all things related to the Clippers these days, their inclusion is less about getting to the playoffs and more about what happens once they're there.
"Over the years, you realize the playoffs are what the regular season is for," Blake Griffin said. "You’re getting your position. You’re getting your team right. You’re finding your flow, your rhythm. You’re finding out what kind of team you are so that you are ready for the playoffs."
So far, L.A. has shown itself to be nothing if not inconsistent.
Sure, the Clippers have demolished the Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Portland Trail Blazers and Detroit Pistons. But they've also been beaten up by those same Pistons, blew an 18-point lead (and a few gaskets) to the Brooklyn Nets and struggled against the Indiana Pacers with and without Paul George.
By season's end, those losses to Eastern teams might look like insignificant blips on the wider radar. But those shortfalls could tear apart even the bigger picture.
A spot in the West's top two would table a clash with the Warriors until the conference finals and give L.A. home-court advantage en route. If the Clippers can finish in pole position, all the better for their hopes of finally breaking through.
The next step for L.A. will be to beat Golden State Wednesday. After that, the Clippers will play twice at home before embarking on a stretch of seven road games out of 11 to end 2016.
If Doc Rivers' squad excels during that difficult run, it will have a much better shot at sniffing prime seeding later on. If not, the Clippers could feel the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder nipping at their heels.
Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers' early-season Cinderella story appears to be nearing midnight.
They've lost their last three games in a row, dropping to 10-13 after a 107-101 home loss to the Utah Jazz Monday. That slide has L.A. on the outside of the West's playoff picture looking in, and it might be just the beginning.
The injury report—which already included D'Angelo Russell, Nick Young, Jose Calderon and Larry Nance Jr.—grew by one Monday when Tarik Black sprained his ankle amid a collision with Utah's Gordon Hayward. (All but Nance Jr. are listed as out for Wednesday's road game against the Houston Rockets.)
The schedule isn't waiting for the Lakers to get healthy either. After spending a weekend at home against the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks, the Purple and Gold head back out on a seven-game swing. They'll be home for Christmas, though how comfortable they'll be against the high-flying Los Angeles Clippers (and against the Jazz on Dec. 27) will depend, in part, on who's fit to play.
By then, the Lakers could be well behind the Jazz (No. 7 in the West as of Dec. 6) and Portland Trail Blazers (No. 8) in the standings, with the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings poised to leapfrog.
As The Ringer's John Gonzalez put it, that outcome would be far from a weep-worthy tragedy: "They would be forgiven if they fell out of the playoff fight and into the tier of teams that don’t yet have the requisite postseason punch. After all, as pleasant as the present has been, they are still about the future."
Still, if there's anything these Lakers have made clear so far, it's that they won't let the good times stop without a fight.
"This time is going to pass and we'll get back to winning games soon," Jordan Clarkson said. "We've just got to shake these off. We're right there in games with all these teams. It's not like we're playing against bums."
Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies (15-8) look like a real threat to crack the West's top four on record alone. But there's a long way to go before playoff seeds are even close to cemented, and the Grizzlies' road to that point is filled with potholes.
Zach Randolph's return to action against the Philadelphia 76ers still left a long list of important names on Memphis' inactive list.
Mike Conley Jr., fresh off a lucrative summer and a strong start to his 2016-17 season, is on the shelf for six weeks with a fracture in his back. Chandler Parsons, the Grizzlies' other marquee free-agent signee, is injured but won't need knee surgery, according to NBA.com's David Aldridge. Vince Carter, James Ennis and Brandan Wright—all important role players—are sidelined as well, though Carter and Ennis should be back before Wright's knee tendinitis clears up around late December.
Fortunately for Memphis, Marc Gasol is still healthy. And it's all well and good that Troy Daniels, a former D-League sniper, saved the Grizzlies' bacon with 19 points against the Orlando Magic, a career-high 31 against the Lakers and another 29 opposite the New Orleans Pelicans.
But what happens when these threadbare Grizzlies run up against stiffer competition?
Memphis will host the Portland Trail Blazers Thursday and the Golden State Warriors Saturday before steeling for a stress-inducing home-and-home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The schedule won't soften much after that, whether or not the crunch in the Grizzlies' training room does.
Indiana Pacers
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If the Indiana Pacers could play the Los Angeles Clippers—whom they beat twice within a week—more often, they'd be a shoo-in for the postseason. But Indy's season series against L.A.'s other team is already over, with plenty of tough games to come.
The Pacers have two stops left on their five-game Western swing and will be back on the road for six of nine away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse before the calendar flips to 2017.
As of now, Indy will have its full complement of players to help through that stretch. Paul George, C.J. Miles and Kevin Seraphin were all available for the win in L.A. Sunday. They all got run at Golden State too, albeit while being run over by Klay Thompson (60 points) and the hot-shooting Warriors, 142-106, Monday.
On paper, Indiana has the talent to be a top-eight team. The Pacers have also crept into the league's top 10 in pace, per NBA.com, just as team president Larry Bird had hoped.
The bad news is that it hasn't translated to much measurable on-court improvement—not yet, anyway. The Pacers rank 21st in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency.
The goal may be for Indy to become more of a scoring machine, but if that fails and the team's defensive calling card yields little more than a busy signal, the Pacers could have a devil of a time keeping up with their conference foes now—and, perhaps, even more difficulty retaining George later.
Atlanta Hawks
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Remember when the Atlanta Hawks were flying high in the East? When the Dwight Howard-Dennis Schroder combo looked like the answer to any questions left in the absences of Al Horford and Jeff Teague? When the Hawks were humming along with Paul Millsap scoring in bunches and the defense frustrating foes to no end?
Well, Atlanta's defense still ranks among the NBA's best (No. 2 in defensive rating), even though the team has stumbled down the Eastern Conference standings. The Hawks have dropped seven in a row, 10 of 11 overall and have fallen out of the playoff picture.
Howard has put up solid numbers overall (13.3 points, 12.5 rebounds, 59.4 percent shooting) but has largely been missing in action from Atlanta's last three games (6.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 36.8 percent shooting).
Millsap put up 24 points and four assists during his return from a hip injury, but it wasn't enough for the Hawks to outlast another Russell Westbrook triple-double-fueled effort for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Atlanta will need Millsap, Howard and Schroder to dig the team out of its current slump. The Hawks have given up at least 100 points during each of their last six games while watching their offense slip to 27th in efficiency.
Mike Budenholzer has proved to be one of the league's best coaches throughout his tenure in the ATL, but without Horford and Teague at the controls, he may need to search further up his sleeves for the tricks he needs to get this team moving in the right direction.
Sacramento Kings
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You can almost set your watch to the Sacramento Kings' annual struggles.
A middling offense. A dreadful defense. An off-court distraction. A dissatisfied constituent. Another round of trade rumors.
This time, though, the Kings' circumstances are a bit different. There's more pressure to win now, and not just because folks in Sacramento have long since tired of the team's decadelong playoff drought.
The organization desperately wanted to put an attractive product on the floor for the Kings' debut season at Sacramento's brand new Golden 1 Center. Instead, the Kings are once again a sub-.500 mess (7-13), careening toward yet another trip to the lottery.
General manager Vlade Divac and the front office will have plenty to settle before then. First and foremost: What to do about DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay?
Both players are having banner individual years. Gay (19.4 points on 46.2 percent shooting, 36.8 percent from three) seems to have rediscovered his fire as a scorer while auditioning for the rest of the Association. The 30-year-old wing can opt out of his contract this summer—and if his move to Roc Nation is any indication, he'll do that on the double once he can.
Cousins, meanwhile, is locked in through the end of 2017-18. But if the Kings want to maximize their return for their franchise star, they might be better off moving him before the summer.
Then again, with Boogie pouring in upwards of 29 points and 10 rebounds per game and Gay filling it up, Sacramento should have the foundation of a respectable squad. It's a familiar line in California's capital, but one that nonetheless could keep the Kings from pulling the trigger on a trade if they show signs of life between now and the February trade deadline.
Washington Wizards
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You know things are bad when a player notches 50-plus and his team still loses.
That's where the Washington Wizards are right now. On Tuesday, John Wall dropped a career-high 52 points along with eight assists on the Orlando Magic, but it wasn't enough for the Wizards to earn their eighth win of the season.
Scoring, though, hasn't been the issue for Washington—though, at 16th in offensive efficiency, it isn't exactly this squad's strong suit. Rather, it's the defense (or lack thereof) that has sunk D.C.'s hopes for a bounce-back season thus far. A top-five unit two seasons ago, the Wizards now wallow in the league's bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.
“You have to have the urgency, you have to have that in order to give yourself the best chance to get a stop, and tonight [that] was not the case," head coach Scott Brooks said, per the Washington Post's Candace Buckner.
Nor has it been the case throughout the 2016-17 campaign. Washington has contested the sixth-fewest shots per game and posted the third-worst defensive field-goal percentage differential.
By the looks of things, the core of this club, which is in the midst of its fourth campaign together, may have run its course. It's no secret that Wall and Bradley Beal aren't exactly simpatico on the court. The team has already plunged $127 million into Beal, still owes eight-figure salaries to Wall, Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi, and might have to max out Otto Porter Jr. to keep him, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe and his front-office sources.
Will the Wizards want to lock themselves into a team that hasn't sniffed the postseason in nearly two years and, even at its best, fell short of the conference finals? That could depend on whether Brooks can coax a defensive flurry out of this group over the next few months.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and accurate as of games played on Dec. 6, 2016. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
