NBA Predictions 2016-17: The Next Big Breakout Star at Each Position
For the Roman philosopher Seneca the Younger, luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. In the NBA, that same formula isn't the only thing needed for a breakout campaign, but it's a necessary part.
The Association's wacky offseason opened up plenty of chances for youngsters to expand their respective footprints.
Kevin Durant's move to the Bay Area shook things up for both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks. Al Horford's shipment to Boston followed Jeff Teague's trade to Indiana and preceded Dwight Howard's Atlanta homecoming. New holes were created to fill in each city. Ditto for Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng leaving Miami and Evan Turner bolting from Beantown, among a host of other familiar faces in new places.
Who, then, is poised to pounce on the vacuums created by that carousel of contracts? Here's a look at the best candidate per position based on individual ability and emergent opportunity.
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
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Dennis Schroder's breakout campaign got off to a shaky start before it began. A week prior to the opening of Atlanta Hawks training camp, he twisted his ankle during a pickup game with teammates and missed several days of practice to rest the injury, as he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore:
"The trainers told me to relax a little bit and not put pressure on it. In training camp it was hurting a little bit. It was bothering me so they said take off. I took off Friday, Saturday and Sunday and today was the first time practicing again. I could run up and down the floor. Now, I'm healthy.
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Schroder returned in time for the Hawks' exhibition opener against the Memphis Grizzlies and showed no ill effects during Atlanta's 104-83 win. The 23-year-old German finished with nine points, three rebounds, three assists and one steal in 17 minutes.
Chances are he'll put up better numbers than that once the games start to mean something. He averaged 11 points and 4.4 assists in 20.3 minutes as Jeff Teague's backup during the 2015-16 season.
With Teague now in Indiana, Schroder will take over Atlanta's full-time starting point guard spot and all the opportunities that come with it. This season, that will include a heaping helping of pick-and-rolls with Dwight Howard, who, despite his apparent decline in Houston, remains one of the league's elite finishers.
All the better for Schroder's assist totals.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
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Last season, Devin Booker had to wait for Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to suffer injuries before he got to regularly start for the Phoenix Suns. This time, he'll do so from day one, next to Bledsoe but ahead of Knight.
This Booker won't be the same one who finished out the 2015-16 season. For one, he won't be piloting Phoenix's offense nearly as much now that Bledsoe and Knight are healthy again. The sharpshooter out of Kentucky also figures to be more aggressive going to the hole after a summer spent building up his body.
"I put on a lot of weight this year, so I'm using my body a lot more," Booker said, per Arizona Sports' Bryan Gibberman. "People know about me, so they're going to be more aggressive with me this year. It's getting involved that way, if my shot's not falling, getting points at the line will get me going."
Booker's already done plenty of that in the preseason. During the Suns' 91-86 opening win against the San Antonio Spurs, he made all eight of his free throws on the way to a 19-point night. Two nights later, he went 6-of-6 from the stripe in a 104-99 loss to the Utah Jazz.
For Booker to go from pleasant rookie-season story to legitimate star at shooting guard, he'll have to continue living at the free-throw line.
"He knows in order to take his game to the next level, it should be seven to 10 times per game, he understands that," head coach Earl Watson told Gibberman. "He drives good enough. He's fearless attacking the basket. And the more that he can do that for us, it's really efficient for us."
And even more important for Booker's meteoric rise through the NBA's ranks.
Small Forward: Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets have taken great pains to lighten Bojan Bogdanovic's load so far in the preseason. After a busy summer spent training with Nets assistant coach Chris Fleming in Zagreb, Croatia, and playing with the Croatian national team at the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Bogdanovic has taken it easy in practice and sat out Brooklyn's preseason opener against the Detroit Pistons entirely.
The Nets hope their plan will help Bogdanovic translate his strong offseason play into a productive NBA campaign. He led all Olympians with 25.3 points per game after averaging 16.1 points following his return to Brooklyn's starting lineup in late February.
"[The difference is] just his confidence, no question," center Brook Lopez said of Bogdanovic, per the New York Post's Brian Lewis. "That's something we absolutely need him to show in this side."
The Nets will have to squeeze every drop they can from Bogdanovic this season. Head coach Kenny Atkinson's roster isn't exactly teeming with scorers, outside of Lopez's low-post efforts and Jeremy Lin's more successful drives.
That lack of reliable options should yield plenty of scoring chances for Bogdanovic and, along with it, a golden opportunity to maintain his summer momentum for months to come.
Power Forward: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
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Aaron Gordon has yet to play in the preseason for the Orlando Magic. He sprained his ankle prior to training camp and has been limited in practice.
When Gordon returns, he won't do so strictly as a power forward.
"On this team, with so many big guys, he's going to play perimeter basketball and really learn that role of being a long small forward," Magic head coach Frank Vogel told Sporting News' Adi Joseph. "We're going to put the ball in his hands a ton and see what he can do offensively."
Whether Gordon gets those touches at the 3 or the 4 will depend on who else is on the floor at any given moment. Orlando is loaded up front, with Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo joining Nikola Vucevic this summer. Those additions will push Gordon further out by necessity.
In the long run, Gordon looks to be a better fit at power forward in today's NBA. Then again, so long as he disrupts opposing offenses, becomes a threat from outside and translates his eye-popping athleticism into more than just contest-worthy dunks, it won't much matter where Gordon plays, just that he does.
Center: Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
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If you hadn't noticed by now, ankle injuries are all the rage for NBA breakout candidates these days. Steven Adams suffered one of his own during the Oklahoma City Thunder's preseason-opening loss to Real Madrid and sat out the team's win over Barcelona as a result.
Once he's healthy, Adams should be ready to resume his rise among the league's top centers. The New Zealand native accounted for 8.0 points and 6.7 rebounds during the regular season before nearly averaging a double-double during Oklahoma City's run to within a win of the NBA Finals.
With Kevin Durant gone and two pick-and-roll purveyors (Russell Westbrook and Victor Oladipo) taking over the offense, the Thunder figure to feature a steady diet of Adams finishing off screens. According to NBA.com, he scored 1.12 points per possession as a roll man, placing him in the 76th percentile among his peers.
Not that there won't be other ways for Adams to impact the game. He'll get plenty of buckets off putbacks (he finished in the top 20 in offensive rebound percentage among those who played in at least 30 games) and erstwhile dives to the rim (1.29 points per possession on cuts).
And that's to say nothing of Adams' ability to battle bigs and protect the rim on defense.
If the Thunder manage to hang around the top half of the Western Conference and Westbrook sticks in the thick of the MVP race, both will owe plenty of their success to Adams' ascent.
