Predicting Which Top-20 NBA Rookies Will Be 2016-17 Studs or Duds
If the 2015-16 season was your introduction to the NBA, you probably have great expectations for what a rookie class can and should be.
Last year's crop of debutantes was one of the most productive in recent memory. Karl-Anthony Towns, the unanimous Rookie of the Year, looked like a budding superstar from his second game on with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Kristaps Porzingis exploded onto the scene early in the campaign. Devin Booker and D'Angelo Russell made major waves late. Nikola Jokic flew under the radar entirely. Myles Turner, Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson and Frank Kaminsky all played significant roles in the postseason. Even Jahlil Okafor, despite all his troubles with the Philadelphia 76ers, nearly came away as the leading scorer in his class.
Good luck finding even half as many big-time performers out of the gate in this year's group. The 2016 draft had the makings of a weaker one from the start, and with training camp right around the corner, that perception has hardly shifted.
In theory, the newest rookies could all develop into real contributors at the NBA level. In practice, only a handful are poised to perform like rotation players, let alone superstars, early on. With that in mind, let's look at the likelihood each of the top 20 picks, listed in order of selection, winds up as a stud or a dud in year one, based on individual ability and available opportunities on their respective teams.
1. Ben Simmons, F, Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 20
Stud
The Philadelphia 76ers will give Ben Simmons every opportunity to succeed...or fail...or both.
According to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey, the No. 1 pick in this year's draft should play more than 30 minutes per game, perhaps as the team's primary creative force. With Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez and Gerald Henderson joining T.J. McConnell and Nik Stauskas in the backcourt, Simmons might already be Philadelphia's best playmaker.
That doesn't mean the 6'10" forward's debut won't be replete with growing pains. Simmons shot just 36.1 percent from the field in six NBA Summer League games overall and racked up nearly as many turnovers (21) as assists (22) during the Sixers' stint in Las Vegas.
Still, after three dismal seasons, Philly owes it to itself, its fans and its future to see what Simmons can do. If the early returns were any indication, he should be a passing prodigy from the opening tip against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
2. Brandon Ingram, SF, Los Angeles Lakers
2 of 20
Dud
"We're not going to throw him into the starting lineup right away," head coach Luke Walton told the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina. "We're not going to play him 40 minutes a night. It's going to be a gradual process."
That means Ingram will start his NBA career on the Los Angeles Lakers bench, behind free-agent signee Luol Deng at small forward. For Walton, putting the No. 2 pick with the second unit will give him more leeway to "develop the young core by rewarding them when they play well" while introducing his 6'9", 190-pound rookie to the NBA's physical inferno one flickering flame at a time.
Ingram should have his chances to shine, whether as a reserve at the outset or as a starter later on. After winning championships as a player with former Sixth Man of the Year Lamar Odom and one coaching Andre Iguodala in Golden State, Walton knows full well what someone can accomplish in that role.
"He's been very impressive in everything he's done," Walton said of Ingram. "I'm sure he'll earn those minutes and that [starting] position sooner rather than later."
But even if Ingram cracks Walton's top five quickly, he'll be no better than the fourth option on the floor, with D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle all spending significant time on the ball. Thus, while Ingram could develop into a stud, he's not likely to look like one early on.
3. Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics
3 of 20
Dud
On his own merits, Jaylen Brown could shine from the get-go.
At 6'7" and 225 pounds, with a curious mind and a thoughtful disposition, the California product is physically and mentally mature beyond his soon-to-be 20 years. But those qualities won't guarantee Brown a prominent spot in Brad Stevens' rotation with the Boston Celtics.
For one, Jae Crowder is already entrenched on the wing, with former Celtics draft pick Gerald Green returning to Boston as a potential backup. As prepared as Brown may be to play compared to some of his classmates, he still has a ways to go as a shooter (32.4 percent from the field, 22.7 percent from three-point range in summer league) and decision-maker (1.3 assists, 2.2 turnovers).
Will the C's, with the personnel to win 50 games and compete for a top seed in the East, be willing to sacrifice some of their immediate ability to compete in lieu of Brown's development?
"Rome wasn't built in a day," Brown said in Las Vegas.
Neither does he figure to be a roaring success in Beantown overnight.
4. Dragan Bender, F, Phoenix Suns
4 of 20
Dud
The Phoenix Suns figure to funnel most of this season's power forward minutes to Alex Len and Jared Dudley. Beyond that, the competition could come down to a toss-up between Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss.
Although to hear head coach Earl Watson tell it, the No. 4 pick in the 2016 draft could work more as a complement to Chriss, the No. 8 pick. As he told NBA.com's Ian Thomsen:
"Bender is a small forward with power forward potential. The safe thing to do is put him at the power forward position. But when you really get to know a player, and you get to know the player before you structure him into what you're wishing he'll be, you have to learn the player's heart, his ambition and his vision. His vision is to play on the perimeter but also to play on the block, or being a pick-and-pop 4.
"
All of which is to say, Bender isn't ready to play his most natural position just yet. To prepare the 18-year-old Croatian for a role on the perimeter, the Suns encouraged him to let it fly during summer league. The result? Bender launched 34 threes in five games...and made nine of them.
The transition into a new culture and a new league against the best basketball players in the world would be tough enough for anyone at Bender's age. The fact his frame lags behind his game points to a quiet opening campaign.
5. Kris Dunn, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 20
Stud
Among his fellow freshmen, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Kris Dunn is already the Rookie of the Year favorite. With Ricky Rubio's support, Dunn could inch several steps closer to securing that honor.
"Really it's a challenge. When a young guy like him who has a lot of potential comes, I think we can really play together," Rubio told the Associated Press' Jon Krawczynski. "But if we don't (share the floor often), I can really help him."
Any aid the 25-year-old Rubio offers to the 22-year-old Dunn could be to his own detriment—after all, Dunn is essentially gunning for Rubio's job at point guard. There may be no immediate plans to move Rubio, but the fact the T-Wolves' new regime spent the No. 5 pick on a relatively mature prospect should be writing on the wall.
Then again, new head coach Tom Thibodeau could play Dunn and Rubio together in certain lineups. And after all the struggles Zach LaVine endured trying to back up Rubio last season, having another natural floor general on the depth chart could be just what Minnesota needs to finally end its league-worst playoff drought.
If Rubio misses more time this season (he's played more than 60 games twice in his five years), Dunn should get at least a taste of life as a starter, with a chance to seize the spot for himself.
6. Buddy Hield, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 20
Stud
The New Orleans Pelicans should have playing time aplenty for Buddy Hield, assuming he's truly NBA-ready. The team will start 2016-17 without Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, and it doesn't have any overwhelming options on the perimeter (E'Twaun Moore? Langston Galloway? Lance Stephenson??) outside of those two.
Whether Hield is ready to deliver is unclear. For someone who made his bones in college as a marksman, the Oklahoma grad struggled mightily with his shot during summer league (32.7 percent from the field, 22.9 percent from three).
"I know I'm a good shooter. I don't even worry about that," Hield said after his final game in Las Vegas. "Just out of rhythm. I'm just learning the spacing and everything, so I'm good. I'm not worrying about this. It's a learning curve for me."
In some respects, Hield might actually find life easier in the honest-to-goodness NBA. He won't have to worry about defenses constantly blanketing him with double-teams, not with Anthony Davis around to attract that attention. And if Hield can find his touch from pro range, he should have no trouble piling up points by knocking down wide-open looks.
7. Jamal Murray, SG, Denver Nuggets
7 of 20
Dud
The Denver Nuggets don't have a clear hole for Jamal Murray to fill. They like their young backcourt of Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris, and they're already stocked with more experienced backups like Will Barton and Jameer Nelson.
Murray was more of a value play for the Nuggets—they reportedly had him at No. 3 on their draft board, per Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post, so when he was still available at No. 7, they pounced.
Not that Murray won't carve out a niche for himself in Denver. If anything, his ability to shoot, handle and distribute the ball should allow him to complement the Nuggets' other guards and close gaps wherever they emerge.
"I've been playing the 2-guard at Kentucky, and I've been playing the 1 my whole life, so I'm pretty comfortable [at either backcourt position]," Murray said at summer league. "It's just basketball. I don't get into positions too much."
Still, whatever scraps of playing time Murray scoops up at different spots might not be enough to show what he's truly capable of.
8. Marquese Chriss, PF, Phoenix Suns
8 of 20
Stud
Marquese Chriss has already drawn comparisons to a young Amar'e Stoudemire, and not just because both began their NBA careers as power forwards for the Phoenix Suns. Like Stoudemire, Chriss is brash and bold in both word and deed, bowling through opponents and attacking the rim like the former football player he is.
"He's always got his head up and his body—potentially—in good position," Suns general manager Ryan McDonough told NBA.com's Ian Thomsen. "He's still learning where to be on the court, but he does some instinctive things. You have to remember, he's so new to the game, with the growth we've seen over the last year-plus and the growth potential going forward."
In terms of skill and pure basketball experience, Chriss lags behind fellow Phoenix draftee Dragan Bender—Chriss took up basketball five years ago after suffering an injury in football. But when it comes to competing with grown men, Chriss, at 6'9" and 225 pounds, is closer in build and attitude to the ideal 4.
Between the two, Chriss looks like the better bet to make his mark first, thanks to his aggressive approach and sheer athleticism going toward the rim.
9. Jakob Poeltl, C, Toronto Raptors
9 of 20
Dud
The last time the Toronto Raptors spent a top-10 pick on a foreign-born big man who played his college ball in Utah? They wound up with Rafael Araujo, who lasted all of three seasons in the NBA.
That past doesn't condemn Jakob Poeltl's future in Toronto, though it could serve as a cautionary tale. After all, plodding 7-footers like Poeltl are no longer all the rage for a reason: They can't keep up with the pace of today's game, particularly on defense.
Poeltl may not be able to hide his flaws for long. Even after signing Jared Sullinger, the Raptors front line remains thin, with Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson and DeMarre Carroll as the top options.
Poeltl told the Salt Lake Tribune's Tony Jones what he's going to have to do to be successful:
"I know what's expected of me, and I know I have to ready myself. This is the NBA. It's a lot more physical, it's a lot more fast-paced. I'm not going to have a second to rest. I always have to fight, be scrappy and go after every ball. That's what I have to accomplish in order to make an impact at this level.
"
Poeltl's predecessor, Bismack Biyombo, had the strength and athleticism to play that part with aplomb last season. Poeltl might already be more skilled offensively, but on a team that features Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Valanciunas, he'll have to seek out scoring on the margins.
10. Thon Maker, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 20
Dud
Add Thon Maker to the list of projects the Milwaukee Bucks have taken on in recent years.
According to Bucks assistant coach Sean Sweeney, Maker can keep pace with Milwaukee's previous draft reach, the recently extended Giannis Antetokounmpo:
"Flip a coin," Sweeney told ESPN.com's Ohm Youngmisuk when asked if Antetokounmpo or Maker is faster from basket to basket. "They both have long strides, they're both really fast. Thon has really good feet and can really move."
Speed and size alone (Maker is 7'1" with a 9'2" standing reach) won't be enough to nudge the high school phenom into Jason Kidd's rotation. For all of his moxie, energy and confidence, Maker might not have the strength and bulk to battle full-grown bigs just yet, be they his opponents or his teammates in practice.
With Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Greg Monroe, Miles Plumlee, John Henson and Mirza Teletovic, the Bucks frontcourt is crowded as is.
Maker will have chances to make his mark this season. For the most part, though, he'll have to wait another year or two before he's ready to impact the Bucks' fortunes from night to night.
11. Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder
11 of 20
Stud
A turbulent summer for the Oklahoma City Thunder has put Domantas Sabonis in position to score some serious playing time as a rookie.
With Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka both gone, Sabonis could slide in as one of the top bigs in Billy Donovan's rotation, which could use the rookie's toughness behind Steven Adams and Enes Kanter.
The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis fits the international flavor of OKC's frontcourt to a tee. He was born into a Lithuanian family in Portland, Oregon, grew up playing the game in Spain and returned to the Pacific Northwest for college ball at Gonzaga.
Among the Thunder's giants, Sabonis looks like a potential jack-of-all-trades. He can score and finish like Kanter, scrap and take up space like Adams or shoot like Ersan Ilyasova and Joffrey Lauvergne (albeit without doing any one of those things quite at their levels yet).
If the 20-year-old can hold his own on defense and make himself a target for Russell Westbrook's dishes on offense, he'll have a sizable role to play during OKC's first foray into a post-Durant future.
12. Taurean Prince, SF, Atlanta Hawks
12 of 20
Stud
Barring a training camp catastrophe, Taurean Prince won't be starting on the wing for the Atlanta Hawks anytime soon. The team handed a four-year, $70 million deal to Kent Bazemore and still has Kyle Korver entrenched at shooting guard.
Instead, Prince will probably spend his rookie season competing with Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway Jr. and fellow 2016 draftee DeAndre' Bembry. The Baylor grad could be the best out of that bunch; he hit 37.6 percent of his threes in college while flashing a nifty drive-and-kick game and splendid defensive skills.
Prince could make some noise at the next level on athleticism alone.
Mike Budenholzer and Co. have done more with less than what Prince brings to the table. They already turned DeMarre Carroll and Bazemore into handsomely rewarded wings and did well enough grooming Dennis Schroder to feel comfortable trading Jeff Teague to Indiana in the deal that brought Prince to Atlanta.
He won't be a star in year one and might never reach those heights, especially coming into the league as a 22-year-old. But if Prince can shoot, defend and play smart basketball on both ends, he could wind up as one of the bigger benefactors from the organization's reshuffling around Schroder, Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard.
13. Georgios Papagiannis, C, Sacramento Kings
13 of 20
Dud
A good year for Georgios Papagiannis would come on the flip side of another bad one for the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings already have arguably the NBA's top player at Papagiannis' natural position: DeMarcus Cousins. For Papagiannis to play a significant role in Sacramento, the team would first have to move on from Boogie once and for all.
According to NBA.com's Shaun Powell, Cousins won't likely be the first one to blink in that standoff: "They know that Cousins, despite his unhappiness with the lack of basketball success, loves Sacramento. He has never demanded a trade."
Even if the Kings pull the plug, Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein are still both returning from last season's squad, with rookie Skal Labissiere joining the quagmire in California's capital. Papagiannis' play at summer league in Las Vegas didn't inspire much confidence, as SB Nation's Adam Beddawi recounted:
"He displayed a lack of offensive awareness in the post, failing to record an assist when he was not backing down his man until he had no choice but to loft an ineffectual half-hook. He was surprisingly mobile for his size when sprinting end-to-end, though he clearly lacked the kind of conditioning and foot speed to move laterally with guards and recover back to roll men in pick-and-roll coverage.
"
Will Papagiannis wind up as another headstone in Sacramento's draft graveyard? He'll have a tough time steering clear of that path as a rookie.
14. Denzel Valentine, SG, Chicago Bulls
14 of 20
Stud
Try pinpointing what Denzel Valentine's role with the Chicago Bulls will be this season.
On draft day, the Michigan State grad looked no worse than Jimmy Butler's backup, with an outside shot at a starting spot on the wing. Now, with Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade in the fold, Valentine could find himself relegated to the depths of Fred Hoiberg's bench.
The Bulls are aiming for a quick return to the playoffs, placing them in a rat race that isn't typically palatable for rookies, even ones who arrive with four years of college experience under their belts.
Then again, as CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill noted, the latest export from East Lansing might have exactly what Hoiberg is looking for.
"Valentine is still a skill player in a skill league playing for a coach who values that more than anything," Goodwill wrote. "At his size, he'll be able to spot the open man or at least make the next pass over if he's on the floor with Rondo or Jimmy Butler."
If Valentine can find ways to contribute without the ball in his hands, he just might leave a mark as a rookie in the Windy City.
15. Juan Hernangomez, F, Denver Nuggets
15 of 20
Dud
Juan Hernangomez could be an impact player down the line, if not an outright star, for the Denver Nuggets.
The 6'9" Spaniard fits the mold of a modern power forward: He can drain shots from NBA three-point range, make plays on the move and stick with his marks defensively on the perimeter. His hoops pedigree—his father played professionally, as do both of his siblings currently—and his relentless motor also point to a bright future.
How soon that arrives will partially depend on how long it takes the 20-year-old to add strength to hang and bang with other power forwards. Under head coach Michael Malone, Hernangomez's playing time will also be dictated by his defensive execution—which, as Basketball Insiders' Ben Dowsett described, has been less than exemplary:
"The effort is there for Hernangomez, just as it is constantly all over the court (his motor is off the charts), but he lacks both the physique and the know-how to properly channel it. He'll badly space out off the ball multiple times per game, and will often overplay the ball and the glass to his team's detriment; even when his head is on straight, he lacks the raw strength to defend the post against bigger guys.
"
Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and Danilo Gallinari will play major minutes up front alongside youngsters like Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Should that group thin out, Hernangomez will get to strut his stuff. Until then, he'll have to bide his time—and bulk up.
16. Guerschon Yabusele, PF, Boston Celtics
16 of 20
Dud
Guerschon Yabusele rumbled and stumbled his way into the hearts of Boston Celtics fans during summer-league play. The 20-year-old Frenchman was a one-man fast break, turning rebounds into scoring opportunities with the force of his 6'7", 260-pound physique.
Folks in Boston shouldn't hold their breath waiting to see Yabusele ply his trade at the TD Garden this season, though. He'll spend the 2016-17 campaign in China, playing for the Yao Ming-owned Shanghai Sharks.
Yabusele was likely to be a "draft-and-stash" candidate from the start. The C's didn't end up trading any of their eight picks in the 2016 draft and wouldn't have had enough roster spots to accommodate all of them.
According to the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, Yabusele's offer from Shanghai, which could net him as much as $1.5 million with bonuses next season, was the most lucrative one he received. It will also allow him to work closely with the Sharks' strength and conditioning staff, which is led by a former staffer from the Houston Rockets.
If Yabusele can trim down his body, tighten his ball-handling, sharpen his shot and improve his awareness on defense while overseas, he could barge his way into a real role with the Celtics upon return.
17. Wade Baldwin, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
17 of 20
Stud
One way or another, Wade Baldwin was bound to be the Memphis Grizzlies' insurance policy. If Mike Conley left via free agency, Baldwin would be in the mix to replace him. If Conley stayed, the rookie out of Vanderbilt might still come in handy in the event the Grizzlies' main floor general succumbed to injury again.
With Conley's return, Baldwin will be relegated to the latter. He's well aware of as much.
"If somebody gets hurt and gets out, I'd like to step up," Baldwin told the Vanderbilt Hustler's Robbie Weinstein. "If somebody needs me coming off the bench to give them a spark, that's what I need to do."
Even a second-string role could be tough for Baldwin to eke out. He'll have to outplay a slew of more experienced guards, albeit ones who have yet to really latch on in the NBA—Tony Wroten, Jordan Adams, Troy Daniels and Andrew Harrison.
Should Baldwin rise above the rest, he could grind out 15-18 minutes per game as Conley's understudy—not a ton, but enough to help a playoff team.
18. Henry Ellenson, PF, Detroit Pistons
18 of 20
Dud
The Detroit Pistons have high hopes for Henry Ellenson...down the road.
For now, they expect the Marquette product to sit, watch and learn. That was the plan even before the Pistons signed Jon Leuer to back up Tobias Harris at power forward. Per Pistons.com's Keith Langlois:
"The day after the draft, [head coach Stan Van Gundy] brought Ellenson to his office and showed him the enlarged depth chart hanging on his office wall. The Pistons were still a week away from the start of free agency, but Van Gundy had a blank space after "Harris" and before "Ellenson."
"If that guy's not ahead of you on the first day of training camp," Van Gundy said, pointing to the blank, "then we signed the wrong guy."
"
Ellenson has the talent to cast doubt on Detroit's free-agent signee and slide up the depth chart. Just don't expect him to climb two rungs in one season.
19. Malik Beasley, SG, Denver Nuggets
19 of 20
Dud
If Jamal Murray has to fight for playing time in the Denver Nuggets backcourt, what hope will there be for Malik Beasley?
The 19-year-old out of Florida State missed summer league with an injury and heads into training camp looking up at Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Mike Miller on the depth chart. If Beasley's going to play this season, he'll probably do so either in the NBA D-League or the aftermath of a catastrophic streak of injuries in the Mile High City.
That doesn't mean he won't have a part to play for the Nuggets at some point. Beasley was a solid perimeter shooter in college (38.7 percent from three) and showed off outstanding hops during his lone season in Tallahassee, particularly at the expense of Duke's Brandon Ingram.
And according to those around him, Beasley will put the proper work into his game—a must if he's going to emerge from the backcourt melee in Denver.
"You don't have to force him to do any of that," Beasley's father, Michael Beasley, told the Orlando Sentinel's Brendan Sonnone. "He's just found the love for the game."
20. Caris LeVert, SG, Brooklyn Nets
20 of 20
Dud
Brooklyn Nets general manager Sean Marks really likes Caris LeVert.
How can you tell? He traded Thaddeus Young to the Indiana Pacers to acquire the 20th pick and then spent that selection on LeVert, who graduated from Michigan on crutches after suffering a Jones fracture in his foot for the second year running.
"I don't want to put pressure on him because he's got a long, long road ahead of him," Marks said recently, per Sheridan Hoops' Michael Scotto, "but he has the mental makeup, hopefully, which will get him there."
Marks' wording suggests this season may be a throwaway for LeVert as far as actual NBA on-court experience is concerned. He could be a difference-maker in Brooklyn but may have to wait until next fall to make his presence felt.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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