The Most Overvalued 2016 NBA Free Agent at Every Position
NBA value is a tricky variable to sort out, especially this year.
The league's new national TV deal with ESPN and Turner (Bleacher Report's parent company) will send the salary cap soaring north of $90 million and take player contracts along for the ride, according to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. What a "good" or "bad" value looks like will change dramatically this summer and again in 2017, when the cap spikes for the second straight year—presumably into the $110 million range.
Ultimately, a player's take will be largely set in stone relative to the cap itself. The NBA, more than any other major professional sports league, sets strict boundaries for what its players can make based on individual service time and standardized team economics, among other things.
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But while most—if not all—of this year's free agents will pop eyes with the sizes of their new deals, the five guys below could be the biggest winners at their respective positions based on what they could earn compared to what makes sense given their potential impacts—good, bad and otherwise—on prospective employers.
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Among a crop of point guards that tapers off considerably beyond Mike Conley Jr., Rajon Rondo looks like the second-best option.
Even though he's 30. Even though he often hunts for assists and gambles for steals, often to the detriment of his team. Even though he was a sub-60 percent free-throw shooter during the last two seasons.
And even though the Sacramento Kings, with all their on-court futility and organizational rot, don't want him back, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe recently revealed: "The latest scuttlebutt is that the Kings are prepared to cut bait with Rajon Rondo if the bidding for him gets beyond a certain threshold that is lower than we might imagine, given the Kings' recent transaction history."
Still, there figures to be teams out there this summer that, absent better options, are seduced by Rondo's brilliant basketball mind, his 2015-16 assist title and/or his championship credentials dating back to days with the Boston Celtics.
Never mind that Rondo's a reluctant shooter who no longer defends at a high level and has been known to give his coaches headaches. Between the massive influx of cash and the lack of competition for it, Rondo stands to benefit more from his current circumstances than any free-agent floor general should.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal (Restricted Free Agent)
On talent alone, Bradley Beal is worth every penny the Washington Wizards can—and will—pay. According to the Washington Post's Jorge Castillo, the Wizards are expected to offer Beal a max contract on July 1 with a first-year salary in the $22 million range.
In the deluge of cap space to come, that price tag could look like a bargain.
At 22, Beal is coming off a season where he posted career highs in points (17.4) and field-goal percentage (44.9 percent). He's also averaged 21.2 points and 4.6 assists across 21 playoff appearances.
The problem is that as great as Beal has been in the games he's played, he's been held out of enough with injuries to warrant serious concern about his long-term future.
Each of his four pro seasons has been marred, to some extent, by a persistent stress injury in his right fibula. This past season, Beal missed a month with that same problem and started just 18 times in 38 games thereafter as a precautionary measure.
Why, then, would Washington so handsomely reward a guy who could succumb to the same ailment at any moment? As Castillo put it, "Because the Wizards believe in his potential. More to the point, they don’t have a reasonable alternative."
Without any better options out there, Washington may have no choice but to pay Beal now and cope with the consequences as they come.
Small Forward: Harrison Barnes (Restricted Free Agent)
Harrison Barnes has the profile (6'8", 225 lbs) and pedigree (McDonald's All-American, collegiate All-American at North Carolina, 2012 lottery pick) of a max player. But the Golden State Warriors' youngest regular has yet to perform like one, at least on a consistent basis.
For all of his physical gifts and mental aptitude, Barnes was exposed during Golden State's seven-game triumph over the Oklahoma City Thunder: He couldn't hang with Kevin Durant, struggled to battle with OKC's bigs and drifted in and out of offensive consciousness before losing his starting spot to Andre Iguodala.
Chances are it'll be Iguodala—not Barnes—who opens the 2016 NBA Finals assigned to LeBron James. That may say more about how good a defender the former is than anything glaring about the latter.
Still, that's not the best look for a guy who, as Warriors center Andrew Bogut told the San Francisco Chronicle's Rusty Simmons, is probably going to make a killing this summer:
"Someone is probably going to give him the max. Let's be honest. Someone is going to give him close to the max. There's always a small-market team that would love someone like Harrison as their No. 1 or No. 2 option. I don't think it's going to having any bearing on his financial future.
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Bogut could be right, and Barnes is behind the eight ball playing for such a historically stacked team. But does that make it any more reasonable for a franchise to pay more than $20 million per year to a player who might top out as a more well-rounded three-and-D specialist?
Power Forward: Pau Gasol (Player Option)
Pau Gasol's stats alone could garner serious consideration for a multiyear deal that pays him eight figures per season.
The six-time All-Star finished seventh in the Association with 46 double-doubles and averaged 16.5 points, 11 rebounds, 4.1 assists and two blocks. The only other players to put up a stat line like that are either in the Hall of Fame (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob Lanier, Bob McAdoo, Bill Walton) or will be eventually (Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber).
Gasol is almost a shoo-in for Springfield as well. Whether he's worth another hefty, long-term investment is less certain.
As impressive as his numbers were in his 15th season, Gasol drew criticism from more than one corner for collecting them like empty calories. According to NBA.com, the Chicago Bulls were better off with him than without but were outscored by the opposition in both situations:
| On Court | 102.4 | 103.5 | -1.2 | 49.6% |
| Off Court | 101.8 | 104.5 | -2.7 | 51% |
| Difference | -0.6 | +1.0 | -1.5 | +1.4% |
If someone's going to pay Gasol to be a difference-maker, that team ought to have an idea that he can actually be one. In the right situation, next to a nimble power forward who can shoot, he can still be that to some degree. For how long, though? Gasol will turn 36 during the first week of free agency.
With his size (7'0", 250 lbs) and skill, he will be able to grab rebounds and throw in hook shots and mid-range jumpers until kingdom come. But any team looking to sink serious loot into the slender Spaniard will need more out of him than that.
Center: Bismack Biyombo (Player Option)
It feels like Bismack Biyombo went from draft "bust" to bank-breaking big man overnight.
His standout performances during the Toronto Raptors' wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Games 3 (a franchise-record 26 rebounds, four blocks) and 4 (14 rebounds, three blocks) had some executives talking about sextupling Biyombo's $3 million salary this summer.
An Eastern Conference general manager told Sporting News' Sean Deveney the following:
"For someone like (Biyombo), I think when you look at a guy like Tyson Chandler and what he got from Phoenix last summer (four years, $52 million), that's where you start for a contract. But you factor in the cap spike and it's probably going to be high, I'd say, $16-17 million. It'll be a heck of a $17 million-per-year gamble.
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"With the way free agency could wind up going, three years and $60 (million) would be my guess," another Eastern Conference executive surmised, per Deveney.
Either way, that's a ton of money for an undersized center (6'9", 245 lbs) whose shooting range extends about four feet from the hoop.
There's still plenty to like about Biyombo, though. The 23-year-old averaged 7.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and two blocks during his 22 regular-season starts. He also posted similar numbers (8.2 points, 11 rebounds, 2.1 blocks) across his 10 postseason starts.
For a team that needs an energetic defender, rebounder, shot-blocker and finisher to complement skill players at other positions, Biyombo could be a good fit, albeit at a steep price.
But for the Raptors, who've already committed $64 million over the next four seasons to Jonas Valanciunas, paying top dollar to retain Biyombo doesn't make much sense—even less so when factoring in DeMar DeRozan's free agency.
With that said, if Biyombo wants to return to Toronto on the cheap, the Raptors would have to consider it.
Stats per NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
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