7 Players Who Will Define the 2016 NBA Playoff Picture
With three weeks to go during the 2015-16 NBA regular season, there's still wiggle room in the playoff picture on either side of the league's 16-team bracket.
In the East, the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards are fighting with the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers for scraps at the bottom; the Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets are practically interchangeable in the middle; and the Toronto Raptors are nipping at the Cleveland Cavaliers' heels at the top.
Out West, the only real seeding drama rests with the Houston Rockets, who are vying to knock either the Utah Jazz or Dallas Mavericks out of the picture.
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But those theatrics only do so much to shape the drama to come.
The league's superstars all shine brightest in the postseason, but these seven—mostly franchise cornerstones, with a pair of top-notch role players mixed in—figure to have the biggest impact on both their own teams and their opponents and, in the process, chart the course of the Association's championship tournament.
Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry's meteoric rise through the ranks of NBA superstars hasn't affected who he is as a person. Just ask Jermaine O'Neal, who played with Curry on the Golden State Warriors in 2013-14.
"You see a lot of people in sports who need to be humbled first to become who they are. That’s never really happened to Steph," O'Neal told Sports Illustrated's Chris Ballard. "Some guys come in and they’re super-humble and they get some success and then they change, everything changes. They become too big for other people. Not Steph. He’s still the same guy."
What has changed, though, is the league around him, courtesy of Curry's own development into arguably the most dominant shooter in NBA history.
"I grew up playing against J.J. Redick and guys like that who could shoot the ball," Phoenix Suns forward P.J. Tucker told Bleacher Report, "but somebody who can shoot like that off the bounce just bringing the ball up, that’s different. That changes the game."
When Curry is on the court, opponents can never relax. In the playoffs, the best defenses and sharpest basketball minds will have to customize their tactics—if not scrap them entirely—to account for a guy who has hit more than half of his off-the-bounce attempts, per NBA.com.
Without a sound strategy for disrupting Curry's rhythm that involves getting the ball out of his hands, making him take tough shots and putting pressure back on him, no team will stand a chance of impeding the Warriors' march to a second straight title.
With Curry, both the player and the person, at the helm, Golden State has its sights set on cementing its historic campaign with a postseason step into immortality.
"One reason our chemistry is so good is because Steph is who he is," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told Sports Illustrated. "Not to take anything away from the other guys, but it’s the leader who sets the tone."
Just as Curry did throughout the regular season and figures to in these playoffs.
LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers
If LeBron James can come close to causing an international incident by unfollowing his own team on Twitter—as part of his yearly plan to block out the noise of social media, per Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon—imagine what he might be able to accomplish by, you know, playing actual basketball for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
That is, assuming his head and heart are in the game from tip to buzzer. After fraternizing with former teammate and longtime friend Dwyane Wade during the Cavs' 122-101 loss to the Miami Heat on March 19, James got a stern talking-to from Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue.
"I just told him we can't have that, being down like we were and him being the leader," Lue told Cleveland.com. "Just me being a competitor, I didn't like it. We had a long talk about it. It was good. He understood, he apologized, and he's been great."
James' greatness as a basketball player isn't in doubt, even if he's no longer the NBA's consensus top dog. He has all the tools and talent, both within himself and around him in Cleveland, to make his sixth straight trip to the NBA Finals—something no player has done since the 1960s.
But will his Cavs have the offensive firepower and defensive chops to stop the West's best if they get there? Could they get derailed on the way, what with Wade's Heat and the Toronto Raptors finding bits of kryptonite to cripple Cleveland that could carry into the playoffs?
And if the Cavaliers crumble, could James' next free-agent decision resume panic Rock City? After all, he still harbors dreams of joining forces with his closest NBA confidants, including Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul.
"I really hope that, before our career is over, we can all play together," James told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. "At least one, maybe one or two seasons—me, Melo, D-Wade, CP—we can get a year in. I would actually take a pay cut to do that."
Surely, those words will resonate as loudly and clearly with Cavs fans as any unfollow ever would, especially if James' career changes course again after Cleveland's springtime sprint.
Russell Westbrook, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
Russell Westbrook has rampaged through the regular season like few ever have, and he seems set to do the same for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the coming playoffs.
According to ESPN Stats & Information's Micah Adams, Westbrook's stat-sheet stuffing in 2015-16 puts him on par with one of the game's all-time greats:
"Westbrook is averaging over 23 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds per game. The only player in NBA history to average those numbers for an entire season is Oscar Robertson, who did it four times, most recently in 1965-66.
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Like the Big O in his day, Westbrook has become a triple-double machine. He's posted three in a row, four in his last five games, six this month and 15 for the season—the first to do so since Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan racked up 17 and 15, respectively, in 1988-89.
Westbrook's boffo numbers are but a few of the indicators that the Thunder, as a team, may be pivoting away from Kevin Durant, however gently. No OKC player finishes more possessions than Westbrook, and no one, not even Durant, can sniff the UCLA product's average time with the ball in his hands.
By and large, Westbrook's move to center stage has been a boon for the Thunder. At 49-22, they're firmly entrenched in the West's No. 3 spot, with an offense that would be the NBA's most efficient if not for the Warriors' scoring prowess.
The true test of Westbrook's arrival, as opposed to a studly sidekick, won't come until OKC inevitably finds itself in a tight spot come playoff time.
And if the regular season means anything, the Westbrook-led Thunder could find some difficulty navigating through clutch situations. According to NBA.com, OKC's point guard has shot 39.8 percent from the field and 12.5 percent from three while posting a net rating of minus-3.1 points per 100 possessions in late-game situations with neither team ahead or with the Thunder behind by more than five points.
If Westbrook can turn those tables in the postseason and pace OKC into the thick of title contention, the chances of Durant re-signing with the Thunder—and extending the team's championship window—can only strengthen. And if KD leaves via free agency anyway, OKC will have a bona fide leading man around whom to construct a supporting cast.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
What Curry's unlimited range is to NBA defenses, Kawhi Leonard's ability to lock up foes of all shapes, sizes and skill sets is to opposing offenses: a nightmare for the average game plan against the San Antonio Spurs.
As Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins wrote of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year: "The Spurs notice how his marks react to him. They wince when he checks in. They hot-potato the ball. They never post him up and rarely iso."
Jenkins went on to explain why scorers are so scared of Leonard:
"According to NBA.com's stats team, players guarded by Leonard shot 39.8% in the first half of this season, 4.5% lower than their normal rate. But those numbers don't illustrate the extent to which he has spooked the league. NBA.com also keeps track of "prevent defense," quantifying how much defenders depress the touches, points and field goals of players they are guarding. Leonard ranks among the top 10 in all three categories among perimeter players.
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For all the great wings who will be floating around the Western Conference playoffs—Durant in OKC, James Harden in Houston, Klay Thompson in the Bay and J.J. Redick in L.A.—Leonard is the last guy they want to see.
And not just because he can neutralize each one. Leonard, a shooting-starved project when he left San Diego State in 2011, has become an all-around offensive force in the Alamo City.
He leads the Spurs in scoring (21 points per game), ranks in the NBA's 89th percentile or better in post-up efficiency (1.03 points per possession), spot-up scoring (1.28 points per possession) and ball-handling in the pick-and-roll (1.01 points per possession), and sits second behind Redick among league leaders in three-point percentage (46.2 percent).
In short, Leonard is exactly the sort of cyborg the Association feared Gregg Popovich would engineer all along. With DPOY and Finals MVP trophies already on his mantel, he'll be out to lead the Spurs into their next era by grabbing the most coveted hardware in basketball—letting Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili ride off into the sunset if they so choose.
Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers
Blake Griffin hasn't set foot in an NBA game since Christmas Day, when he injured his quad during the Los Angeles Clippers' 94-84 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. During the three months he's been out, the Clippers have gone 27-14, with the league's fourth-best net rating (plus-5.9 points per 100 possessions).
Griffin, meanwhile, embarrassed himself and the franchise by busting up his right hand in a brawl with the Clippers' assistant equipment manager. Griffin's hand is healthy now, and the quad should follow suit soon.
"Obviously, I guess there’s a chance of [Griffin missing the rest of the regular season], but I don’t think that’s going to happen,” coach Doc Rivers said, per Clippers reporter Rowan Kavner. "I think he’ll be back, hopefully sooner than later."
Whenever that clearance comes, Griffin will have to wait another four games as penance for his pugilism in Toronto.
As well as L.A. has fared without Griffin overall, his absence has taken a toll. The Clippers lost six of eight during a stretch in mid-March, with shortfalls against the Thunder, Cavaliers, Spurs and Warriors—the elites of the league—along with a flop opposite the decimated Memphis Grizzlies, their likely first-round playoff opponent.
Between Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford, the Clippers have enough firepower to outlast the Grizzlies in a seven-game series. But any hopes of escaping the second round for the first time in franchise history will go up in smoke if Griffin isn't fit to drain elbow jumpers, throw down thunderous dunks and serve as L.A.'s secondary playmaker.
And if the Clippers can't crack that ceiling and break into the conference finals, the team's core, Griffin included, could be due for a shake-up this summer.
DeMarre Carroll, F, Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors have done well to not only stake their claim to the East's No. 2 seed but also stay within striking distance of the Cavaliers. And all without DeMarre Carroll.
The team's top free-agent signing from this past summer has been out since early January after having surgery on his right knee—the same one he sprained during the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals with the Atlanta Hawks.
Without Carroll, the Raptors have shuffled through a slew of combinations at the forward spots. Luis Scola has been entrenched at the 4, while Terrence Ross, James Johnson and rookie Norman Powell have taken turns at the 3.
For all the great work Toronto has done to put itself within arm's reach of the franchise's first 50-win season, those efforts could all be for naught unless head coach Dwane Casey can find a more stable option to work the wing. Without one, the Raptors could once again wind up the victims of an opening-round upset, assuming Paul George and the Indiana Pacers, the East's No. 7 seed, are prepared to pounce on their weaknesses.
Carroll might not be the one to steady that segment of Toronto's rotation. He shot poorly (38.8 percent from the field) and registered a subpar defensive rating (105 points allowed per 100 possessions) through his first 23 games as a Raptor.
That all came on a bad knee, but how much better will Carroll be if he doesn't have time to work himself back into game shape? According to the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat, he didn't join the team for its three-game trip through Boston, Houston and New Orleans.
If Carroll isn't ready to return in time for the playoffs, the Raptors will have to lean even harder on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to pile up points, hoping their ragtag group of forwards can at least impede the likes of George and LeBron.
Luol Deng, F, Miami Heat
Chris Bosh could tilt the balance of power among Cleveland's challengers if he's healthy enough to suit up for the Miami Heat this spring.
That "if" still looms large on South Beach. According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, the All-Star forward remains on blood thinners, despite the dissipation of the blood clot in his calf. But he remains hopeful that he'll play again this season.
In the meantime, Miami isn't waiting on Bosh's status to fill the void at power forward. The team recently moved Luol Deng, a longtime wing, to the 4, where he's thriving.
Deng told USA Today's Sam Amick:
"My strength comes in cutting, moving, running into screens, coming off pindowns—it’s just how I play basketball. And now that I’m playing at the four, I have the opportunity to run into screens. I can run the floor. I can be in the top of the key. I don’t always just find myself right in the corner and waiting for the action to happen. I’m actually initiating a lot of action, so really I’m having a lot of fun but I’m definitely in my comfort zone. That’s really—it’s what I know best.
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The Heat have been better for Deng's switch. Before getting blown out in San Antonio on Wednesday, Miami had won 12 of 17 since the All-Star break, with close calls against the Warriors and Charlotte Hornets, plus an overtime loss in Toronto.
With Deng at power forward and Hassan Whiteside coming off the bench, the Heat have started to push the pace the way they figured to with Goran Dragic at point.
Deng has done plenty to help Miami control tempo now, but he will be most vital when corralling the East's best forwards later this spring. If the Heat survive a 4-5 matchup in the first round of the playoffs, he'll likely be tasked with taking on LeBron James in a Miami-Cleveland showdown.
Deng may not be a "LeBron Stopper," per se, but no one in the NBA today is more experienced in the ways of defending James. The two squads have split 38 regular-season meetings, though James' teams have topped Deng's in all three of their postseason tiffs.
Still, if any team has the goods to take down the Cavaliers in the East, it's the Heat, thanks in no small part to all that Deng does on both ends.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless noted otherwise and accurate as of games played on March 23, 2016.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@JoshMartinNBA), Instagram and Facebook.
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