Buying or Selling the NBA's Latest Trade Deadline Rumors
With two weeks to go until the NBA's trade deadline on Feb. 18, front-office phones are blowing up with curious calls all across the league. Meanwhile, the rumor mill is running hot with second- and thirdhand snippets from those conversations between general managers, scouts and executives.
Most of that innuendo, much like the conversations from which it stems, is nothing more than idle chatter. For every trade that actually comes to fruition midseason, there are countless more bandied about that never see the light of day.
How can you tell which nuggets are juicy and which are short of substance? By evaluating the circumstances and demands of the teams and players involved, which we did while poking holes in these five potential scenarios.
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Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
The Rumor: According to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola, "The [Boston] Celtics have engaged the Houston Rockets in talks about a possible deal for Dwight Howard."
Why It Makes Sense: The Celtics have been hot after a star since general manager Danny Ainge squeezed a king's ransom out of the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry. They've previously been connected to Kevin Love and DeMarcus Cousins, among others, but have yet to break through on that front.
"I think you need transcendent players, is what everybody would like to have in the NBA," Ainge said before Boston opened training camp in late September, per NESN's Darren Hartwell. "You don’t always get what you want."
In Howard, the C's could get some of what they want. He may never be the night-to-night terror he once was in Orlando, given his age (30) and history of back problems. But Howard is still capable of dominating any given evening, as he did during a recent 10-game stretch (20.6 points, 14.7 rebounds, 65.5 percent shooting) between late December and mid-January.
He's certainly more likely to take Boston further than any of head coach Brad Stevens' current frontcourt options. The Celtics' roster is crowded with capable bigs—from floor-stretchers (Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger) and skill guys (David Lee) to pick-and-roll finishers (Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson) and defensive specialists (Jordan Mickey). But none fills as many boxes as Howard.
Nor do any of Boston's incumbents bring much in the way of free-agent magnetism to the table. As Sporting News' Sean Deveney put it, "If Howard were firmly in the Celtics’ fold, he remains enough of a draw to inspire another free agent—or a potential trade target—to join him in Boston."
As for the Rockets, trading Howard would allow them to reload with youth around James Harden while getting something in return for their oft-injured center before he likely opts out of his contract this summer.
Why It Doesn't Make Sense: That same option on Howard's deal dampens the possibility of a blockbuster trade. Isola wrote as much himself: "Howard can opt out of his contract this summer, and considering his back and knee issues, it doesn’t make much sense for Boston GM Danny Ainge to use the assets on a player with declining skills and a battered body."
If the C's see Howard as a depreciating asset and consider him a rental, they won't offer as much for him in return as the Rockets would probably prefer. Per Yahoo Sports' Chris Mannix, a token return won't be enough to move Houston general manager Daryl Morey to action:
For all its struggles through the first half of the season, Houston could still make some noise come playoff time behind Harden, a healthy Howard and a supporting cast replete with long-limbed athletes who can shoot and defend multiple positions.
Without Howard, the Rockets' odds of going deep this spring—and perhaps luring Kevin Durant to Space City, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins and Marc Stein—slip toward slim-to-none territory.
Verdict: Sell
David Lee, PF, Boston Celtics
The Rumor: According to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, the Celtics intend to set David Lee free, one way or another:
Per CSNNE.com's A. Sherrod Blakely, Boston would prefer to get some value out of Lee on the market if it can swing a deal by the deadline: "While Lee has not demanded a trade, Boston as well as Lee’s representatives are looking at potential teams that would make sense for both Lee to play for, and the Celtics to acquire an asset or two in return that would make them potentially better."
Why It Makes Sense: Beck added that Lee would rather not spend the months leading up to his free agency racking up DNPs—which he had 16 of in 17 games from Jan. 4 on:
Boston and Lee's representatives are working together on this, per the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, making an eventual split inevitable.
Why It Doesn't Make Sense: How that split comes about is another story. Finding a taker for Lee, as skilled an offensive player as he is, won't be easy in light of his age (32), defensive limitations and sizable (though expiring) salary.
As the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett sees it, "If the Celtics do trade Lee in the next two weeks, his value will be his contract ($15.49 million) and it will be as part of a larger deal."
Barring a blockbuster, like the Dwight Howard deal above, expect Lee to be bought out by March 1 so he can sign with a contender elsewhere.
Verdict: Buy
Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks
The Rumor: KSL.com's Andy Larsen reported Sunday that the Utah Jazz, within striking distance of a playoff spot out West and without a bona fide point guard to get them there, are "considering" trading for Atlanta Hawks All-Star Jeff Teague.
According to ESPN's Chris Broussard, the Hawks aren't actively shopping Teague but are looking to gauge the market for their starting point guard.
Why It Makes Sense: The Hawks already have a point guard-in-waiting via third-year floor general Dennis Schroder. As the Boston Globe's Gary Washburn noted, Schroder has played well enough to cut into Teague's critical playing time and in turn render the latter expendable:
"The Hawks need to make a decision at point guard, as coach Mike Budenholzer has been splitting time between Dennis Schroder and Jeff Teague. Teague is averaging 6.7 minutes in the fourth quarter, while Schroder is averaging 5.7. Teague’s overall numbers are better, but it seems the Hawks may be shopping him, feeling Schroder has a higher upside. Teague is a free agent after next season and his salary is modest ($8 million per season), making him an attractive player to trade.
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By dealing Teague, Budenholzer could give the keys to his offense to the Hawks' German guard while bringing back other quality rotation players.
The Jazz need help at the point if they're going to outlast the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings in the race for the West's No. 8 seed. Raul Neto and Trey Burke have split time in Dante Exum's absence, but neither has played well enough to inspire confidence.
Utah has a surplus of assets from which to draw: Rodney Hood's emergence as a facilitator and a scorer on the wing may have muddied the futures of Burke and the injured Alec Burks, as Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver wrote: "His playmaking ability makes Burks and/or Trey Burke totally expendable if Utah wants to target a more dependable, complete starting point guard."
And in a league where relationships often dictate whether a deal gets done, the familiarity between the higher-ups in Utah and Atlanta, noted by Larsen, would only help to grease the skids: "While no formal contact has been made between the two sides, the Hawks primary decision-maker Mike Budenholzer has a good relationship with both Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey and head coach Quin Snyder from their time together with the Spurs."
Why It Doesn't Make Sense: There's been no actual chatter between the two organizations regarding Teague. Trades aren't negotiated telepathically, so until these two teams pick up their respective phones, there won't be any players swapping jerseys here.
The Jazz have chosen patience and prudence over expedience throughout their ongoing rebuild. Would they change course now to go after Teague, especially in light of his issues? Per Larsen:
"Teague has been dealing with a recurring left ankle injury, the result of spraining it multiple times over the past two seasons. It's the sort of injury that isn't severe enough to stop Teague from playing, but may be hampering his effectiveness once he gets to the rim. It's also worth noting that some feel Teague is "sandbagging" because he's unhappy with his situation in Atlanta.
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The Hawks, on the other hand, might think twice about handing the reins of a proven playoff team to a 22-year-old with a suspect jump shot (32.5 percent from three). Schroder may be the future in Atlanta, but with Al Horford in the last year of his deal, this team is built to win now, and Teague gives it the best chance to do that.
Verdict: Sell
Pau Gasol, C, Chicago Bulls
The Rumor: According to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, "Two rival executives aren't convinced the Bulls are done gauging the market for Gasol, whom the Bulls would like to re-sign this offseason but at their price."
Why It Makes Sense: The Bulls' current mix clearly isn't working. Between Jan. 9 and Feb. 1, Chicago dropped nine of 13 games to fall six back of the second-placed Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference.
Not that the Bulls should feel compelled to hit the full reset button after a few bad weeks, but this squad has been maddeningly inconsistent all season under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg. According to NBA.com, Chicago still ranks among the league's elite defensively but has slid to 26th in offensive efficiency.
Gasol, for all his skills, hasn't made Hoiberg's schemes hum. Per NBA.com, the Bulls have scored 101.4 points per 100 possessions with Gasol—a hair above their 100.6 rating overall. And as Johnson pointed out, the 35-year-old Spaniard's potential return to free agency (he has a player option for 2016-17) could compel Chicago to act preemptively:
"Remember: This is a franchise that offered Luol Deng a take-it-or-leave-it offer in his free-agency season before trading him to the Cavaliers to get out of the luxury tax. A similar approach with Gasol would be a sign that management is thinking big picture as much as, if not more than, this season.
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Deng was still a productive player when the Bulls dealt him to the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014. Gasol—averaging right around 17 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two blocks per game—stuffs the stat sheet as well as any player his age. His skill and championship experience could draw interest from a potential contender looking for a gifted big to man the middle.
Why It Doesn't Make Sense: So far, there's been no mention of an actual suitor for Gasol's services. Until one emerges, it's tough to predict Chicago's sending him elsewhere.
Nor is there much logic behind the Bulls jettisoning Gasol with Joakim Noah done for the season (shoulder) and Nikola Mirotic currently on the shelf after an appendectomy. Where once Chicago was crunched up front, injuries have pushed Gasol further to the fore than ever before.
Unless the Bulls are trying to punt this season—and the very real shot they have of challenging the Cavaliers come playoff time—they're not about to cut ties with Gasol.
Verdict: Sell
Markieff Morris, PF, Phoenix Suns
The Rumor: ESPN's Marc Stein broke the news Wednesday that the Toronto Raptors are interested in Markieff Morris:
Why It Makes Sense: Morris' misery has been anything but a mystery for months now. Ever since the Suns sent his twin brother, Marcus, to the Detroit Pistons over the summer, Markieff has made it known he wants out.
With Jeff Hornacek gone, interim head coach Earl Watson is going all-in to showcase Morris, presumably ahead of a trade.
"He is the main focus of our offense moving forward, we know that," Watson said of Morris, per Dave King of SB Nation's Bright Side of the Sun. "That's part of talking about your role with this team, he went out there every play and that was his role, to lead us. He accepted that."
Morris' acceptance led to a season-best 30-point, 11-rebound, six-assist, two-block effort in a 104-97 loss to the Raptors.
It's no wonder, then, that Toronto would be intrigued. The Raptors saw up close what Morris can do. They aren't exactly brimming with top-notch options at power forward either, as Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson are sopping up minutes there.
Morris, with his skill and versatility on both ends of the floor, could be a solid fit at the 4, both now and long term. He's under contract through 2018-19 for $8 million—a reasonable salary that's a mere blip on the radar once the cap explodes over the next two summers.
Why It Doesn't Make Sense: Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri knows a good deal when he sees one, but the quality of this transaction won't be his alone to gauge. Ryan McDonough, Ujiri's counterpart in Phoenix, will have a part to play as well.
And per Stein, McDonough's asking price for Morris could be steep:
Ujiri has some assets to spare, from Terrence Ross and Bruno Caboclo to his team's own first-round picks and those of the New York Knicks in 2016 and the Los Angeles Clippers in 2017. But would he be willing to part ways with any prime chips to acquire a player with as much baggage as Morris is carrying around?
Verdict: Buy
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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