Fantasy Basketball 2015: Predicting Biggest Breakout Stars for 2015-16 Season
Not all of this season's fantasy basketball stars will start out that way.
Every year, as you compete with your friends, co-workers, family members and bar-stool acquaintances for bragging rights, a crop of NBA talent outperforms their draft status. These are not sleepers. Those are players you barely consider, if you consider them at all.
No, these are players you know and will indubitably select later on. They are talents who, as of now, will still be available at the middle and late portions of standard drafts. You understand they can be valuable—you just don't realize they're going to be fantasy stars...yet.
To find these breakout candidates, we'll journey outside the early rounds. If a player ranks inside the top 50 of Yahoo's average draft position (ADP), he won't be eligible for consideration.
Selections are made based mostly on a player's numbers from last season and the potential for growth. Maybe he's more important to his team's success. Maybe he finds himself on a new team. Maybe he's just young and due to explode.
Whatever the case, your fantasy roster stands to benefit from knowing that these oft-overlooked names are more valuable than they seem.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets
1 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.0 turnovers, 40.1 percent shooting, 35.5 percent from three, 89.5 percent from free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 76.0
Make room for Danilo Gallinari on your fantasy roster. No, seriously, do it. The 6'10" asparagus spear is going to fill up the box score this season.
Part of Gallinari's rise will come by default. The Denver Nuggets, as has become the norm for them, lack a true No. 1 scorer. Rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is going to eat, but his first instinct is to pass—an impulse that will only heighten as NBA defenses attempt to exploit his shaky jumper.
Unless you envision a world in which Kenneth Faried can score outside of three feet of the basket or even create his own shot, that leaves Gallinari. And if the second half of last season is any indication, that's a good thing.
Gallinari averaged 19 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 steals on 45.1 percent shooting, including 40.6 percent from deep, after interim head coach Melvin Hunt replaced Brian Shaw. These numbers came over just a 23-game sample size, but Gallinari kept chugging along while playing for Italy over the summer.
Plus, as Grantland's Zach Lowe unearthed, Gallinari's late-season performance was more atypical than too good to be true: "He ranked in the top 10 percent of the league in points per possession after the All-Star break in just about every play type, per Synergy Sports: pick-and-rolls in which he handled the ball; pick-and-rolls on which he screened; isolations; spot-ups; and fast-break chances. That is really unusual."
Expect Gallinari's minutes (24.2 per game) and usage rate (21.5) to skyrocket. He is finally healthy—knocks on rustic oaken rocking chair—and playing for a coach in Mike Malone whose presumed blend of fast-paced and half-court sets will accentuate his offensive versatility.
Additional shots will result in more points. And Mudiay, while a rookie, should ensure Gallinari's shooting percentages don't suffer. Muiday's drives to the basket and awareness inside the paint are an offense's dream when there are capable shooters circling the arc, and Gallinari drilled 43.2 percent of his spot-up treys following the All-Star break.
To be fair, you'll have to look elsewhere for blocks and steals. Gallinari is also, at best, an average rebounder and passer. But his per-36-minute totals in these departments last season were right in line with his career averages, so if there are any surprises, they should be pleasant.
Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons
2 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 2.4 turnovers, 43.4 percent shooting, 29.9 percent from three, 83.0 percent from free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 76.6
The Detroit Pistons have 80 million reasons to ask that you make Reggie Jackson a part of your 2015-16 fantasy team. I, however, only have one: He's going to be worth it.
All of the usual knocks on Jackson still apply. He has never piloted a top offense. His effort on defense—and therefore his steal totals—are inconsistent. He's an erratic shooter. His turnover rate isn't something to brag about among fellow starting point guards.
This is where the always cryptic, generally elusive "leap" comes in.
Jackson averaged 17.6 points, 9.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds upon arriving in Detroit. His three-point percentage, though still below league average, climbed to 33.7 percent. Even his 43.6 percent clip from the field was a tad more huggable.
Between March and last season's end, Jackson was even better, averaging 17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 9.7 assists on 45.6 percent shooting, including a 36.4 percent showing from downtown. He also drove to the basket 13 times per game in Detroit, doubling his attack volume with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Those extra forays will help put his lights-out foul shooting to good use.
Turnovers are the one glaring concern. Jackson turned the ball over on 17 percent of his possessions with the Pistons, which would have ranked as the third-worst mark in the league over the course of an entire season.
Having more space to operate, though, should help a great deal. Pistons coach and president Stan Van Gundy has primed the roster for one-in, four-out everything, and it helps that Jackson has now developed a rapport with certain teammates.
During the 600 minutes he spent alongside Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last season, the Pistons scored with the efficiency of a league-best offense while posting a tidy 13.6 turnover percentage.
In other words, don't fret the hype. Jackson's fantasy stock is the real deal.
Robin Lopez, New York Knicks
3 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.4 blocks, 1.2 turnovers, 53.5 percent shooting, 77.2 percent from the free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 93.7
Robin Lopez is more than just an effective rim protector with really awesome hair.
Most of his modest numbers stand to rise with the New York Knicks. In all its outdatedness, the half-butchered triangle offense that the Knicks run should help prop up Lopez's unsightly assist numbers. He has been forced to move the rock during preseason play and is already getting better at zipping passes around screens.
Posting a double-digit scoring average shouldn't be a problem, either. The Knicks are more open to diverging from the triangle for the more-than-occasional pick-and-roll, and Lopez, finally free from LaMarcus Aldridge's shadow, is now his team's primal slasher.
Hotfooting toward the basket off screens is something Lopez does really well. He flashes just enough hesitation and is deceptively quick. He ranked in the 86th percentile of all pick-and-roll finishers last season.
A significant jump in rebounding totals is also in play here. Lopez has never been a volume rebounder, mostly because he didn't need to be.
Tweeting on behalf of Fox Sports, Fred Katz explained Lopez's rebounding potential thusly:
"Lopez doesn’t grab boards on his own too often. What he does is clear space for others. It’s no coincidence LMA’s REB% jumped with him there. When you have a guy boxing out two others at once because of his ability to position himself, quickness can be as important as size at 4. You want someone who can adjust to the path of the ball while Lopez bodies others. LMA had tons of uncontested rebounds because of that.
"
New York doesn't need Lopez to be the guy behind the guy under the glass. It needs Lopez to the guy. The Knicks ranked as one of the league's three worst rebounding teams in 2014-15 and could use a double-digit-capable rebounder to move their needle.
What I'm trying to is this: Lopez has a double-double-machine ceiling this season. Tinker with your fantasy big boards accordingly.
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns
4 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.1 turnovers, 46.5 percent shooting, 31.8 percent from three, 76.3 percent from free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 97.1
Well, this is kind of awkward.
Unhappy with the Phoenix Suns' decision to trade his brother to Detroit, Markieff Morris spent the summer months trying to demand a trade of his own, according to AZCentral.com's Paul Coro. The Suns did not oblige.
Then, just when you were expecting him to join the team for training camp in extravagant, trade-demanding fashion, he pulled an about-face, telling reporters: "I want to be here."
Not that he can say anything else. But, ironically, the Suns need him now more than ever after shipping out Marcus. They don't have anyone else to legitimately fill the stretch-4 role.
T.J. Warren is a tweener forward who cannot shoot threes. Mirza Teletovic strokes triples with better accuracy than Morris, but that's all he does better. Jon Leuer is more of a garbage-time gobbler than anything else.
And, truth be told, that's what makes Morris so appealing: Phoenix's lack of other options. He doesn't need to improve a great deal.
To wit: Last season, Morris was one of seven players to average 15 points, six rebounds, two assists and one steal while shooting better than 45 percent from the floor. The other six were Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Paul Millsap and DeMarcus Cousins.
Phoenix's decision to thin out its point guard-packed backcourt will only give Morris more opportunities to make an offensive impact. Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight both prefer to dominate the ball, but Morris won't be competing for touches with a third starter-level floor general.
Provided he doesn't take the court with a sullen, disinterested demeanor as part of some revived trade request, Morris' per-game lines will be money in the fantasy bank.
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
5 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.4 turnovers, 44.6 percent shooting, 63.6 percent free-throw shooting
Yahoo ADP: 122.6
Are we allowed to pick two Nuggets?
Sure, why not.
Jusuf Nurkic is a scary human. He has just over 1,100 minutes of NBA experience to his resume, but that's enough to know what we need to know: He's a fantasy stud in the making. Yahoo Sports' Dan Devine even pegged him as breakout candidate while riffing on the 2015-16 Nuggets:
"Mudiay, but since we've already discussed him, let's go with the 6-foot-11, 280-pound Nurkic, whose mammoth stature, surprisingly deft passing — only 15 centers last year played 1,000 minutes and dropped dimes on at least 7 percent of their teammates' buckets; Nurkic was one of them — nimbler-than-you'd-expect footwork and litany of trash-talking taunts make him something of a Marc Gasol-as-a-Wrestling Heel Starter Kit.
"
Coach Malone will need to install an uptempo offense in Denver. That's a prerequisite of coaching the Nuggets. But he is a half-court wizard at heart and should be able to help Nurkic build upon his foundation of post moves.
Nurkic, for his part, is a worthy pupil.
Only four other rookies have ever averaged 13 points, 12 rebounds, 1.5 steals and two blocks per 36 minutes while also seeing at least 1,000 minutes of total playing time: Hakeem Olajuwon, Robert Parish, Roy Tarpley and Andre Drummond.
Those splits will be impossible to maintain with additional playing time, but more exposure translates to more stat-piling. After all, Nurkic was productive in less than 18 minutes per game as a rookie.
Think of what he could accomplish in 25-plus minutes, as the only true post threat on Denver's roster, with Malone whispering sweet low-post everythings in his ear.
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
6 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats (College): 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, 66.4 percent shooting, 51 percent from the free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 86.7
Selecting a rookie might be frowned upon, but hey, someone needs to put up numbers on the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jahlil Okafor will do a little bit of everything to help you get your fantasy fix—except hit threes and make free throws.
Despite being recognized as a defensive detriment, he swats the occasional shot. He plays below the rim but fights like hell for rebounds. He enters the NBA as an average passer for someone his size, and his limited offensive range parlays into a sky-high field-goal percentage. Since most of his shots come so close to the basket, he doesn't miss a ton of them.
Indeed, much of Okafor's value lies in his scoring. But the Sixers need a scorer. They deployed the league's worst offense last season. When looking at their adjusted offensive rating—which compares teams throughout history by measuring offensive output against league averages (explained in full by Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal)—we find they fielded the third-worst scoring attack of all time.
That's good news if you're Okafor. It means the touches and shot attempts will be there. And though he's still new to NBA double-teams, there can be strength in volume—especially if your footwork is as nasty as Okafor's.
Consider this: Ben Gordon owns the highest usage rate of any qualified rookie in league history, having finished off 30.4 percent of the Chicago Bulls' possessions in 2004-05.
Is it completely off base to think Okafor could challenge that number? Not at all. The Sixers are that bad. They don't have an everyday point guard, and their best player right now (Nerlens Noel) cannot consistently create his own shot.
Okafor, then, will get more than his due, stat-piling his way into the Rookie of the Year conversation and, potentially, onto your next fantasy team.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
7 of 7
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, 42.5 percent shooting, 26.2 percent from three, 55.1 percent from the free-throw line
Yahoo ADP: 67.4
Elfrid Payton is already a fantasy stud thanks to his well-balanced stat lines.
His suboptimal shooting from beyond the arc and at the foul line does drag his stock down a bit. So, too, do his turnover woes. He coughed up the ball on 20.2 percent of his possessions last season, which ranked as the second-worst mark among any player to see at least 2,000 minutes of action.
But Payton's turnover totals will drop with time and experience as he becomes more accustomed to facing NBA defenses. And, according to the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins, he took steps to fix his broken jumper over the offseason by spending extensive time with shooting coach Dave Love.
Besides, while Payton should contribute as a scorer, easily eclipsing double figures, his best work comes everywhere else.
Last season, as a rookie, he was one of just nine players to tally at least four rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Seven of the other eight were All-Stars.
Over the last 15 years, he is one of just four novices to hit those benchmarks. The other three were Ricky Rubio, Chris Paul and John Wall.
If Payton can improve his efficiency even slightly, he will be a huge fantasy get—someone you can pick up in the middle-to-late rounds but who will stuff the box score like he was selected much earlier, alongside other fantasy superheroes.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
