9 NBA Free Agents with Clear Red Flags Entering 2015 Offseason
Before a franchise agrees to make a large financial commitment to a marquee free agent, it should be aware of the possible pitfalls that are involved. Unfortunately, NBA players do not come with any visible warning labels or a Carfax report.
Until now.
Free agency is ultimately a crapshoot. A good signing, like the Atlanta Hawks' addition of Paul Millsap two years ago, can set a franchise on the right path for years to come.
Meanwhile, overpaying a player with a bloated contract can have serious financial repercussions that inevitably lower a team's ceiling. A recent example of this is Josh Smith, who signed a four-year, $54 million deal in 2013 but was waived by the Detroit Pistons just a year later.
With free agency opening unofficially July 1, it is important for potential employers to get a better idea of what types of investments they're making. Whether it is an extensive injury history, a clear decline in production or a fatal flaw in an otherwise-impressive game, some of this year's top targets have clear red flags that could make for shaky acquisitions.
Iman Shumpert, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (RFA)
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Red Flag: Durability
In his four seasons in the NBA, Iman Shumpert has shown the chops to be a versatile guard who can be a factor at both ends of the court. He's a career 34.8 percent three-point shooter who has held opponents to a 42.1 percent mark from the floor and can defend anywhere from point guard to small forward.
The Georgia Tech product's team-oriented mindset has already impressed his fellow Cleveland Cavaliers despite joining the team in only January. Here is what LeBron James had to say about Shump after Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, per Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today:
"He's brought grit, toughness, the defensive mindset. That's the first thing he thinks about. In a sport full of a lot of egos, to be able to have teammates and guys like Shumpert who just care about team success, it means a lot to a locker room and we're very thankful to have him."
Unfortunately, Shumpert also brings concerns over his durability. In his three-and-a-half years with the New York Knicks, he never played more than 74 games in a single season after suffering a torn ACL and a dislocated shoulder, among other injuries. The latter, which occurred in December, delayed Shumpert's Cavs debut by two weeks.
While Shumpert can be a solid role player who brings a lot of intriguing assets to the table, buyers should make sure he has a clean bill of health before breaking their checkbooks out.
Wesley Matthews, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (UFA)
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Red Flag: Recovery from Achilles Surgery
Wesley Matthews is another exciting two-way guard who comes with health concerns. In five seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers, Matthews averaged no fewer than 13 points per game and shot no worse than 38.3 percent from three-point range. On the defensive end, opposing teams averaged 102 points per 100 possessions with the Marquette product on the court. When he sat, that number inflated to 106 points, per Basketball-Reference.com.
That's the good news. This is the bad news.
Matthews suffered a torn Achilles tendon March 5 that sidelined him for the rest of the season. While Matthews said he's "ahead of schedule" with his recovery while appearing on NBA TV (via Mike Tokito of the Oregonian), a recent study published by the American Journal of Sports Medicine doesn't paint a pretty picture of what lies ahead for the Marquette product:
"Seven players never returned to play an NBA game, whereas 11 players returned to play 1 season, with 8 of those players returning for ≥2 seasons. Players who returned missed an average of 55.9 games. The PER was reduced by 4.57 (P = .003) in the first season and by 4.38 (P = .010) in the second season. When compared with controls, players demonstrated a significant decline in the PER the first season (P = .038) and second season (P = .081) after their return.
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To put Matthews' possible decline in better perspective, a four-point drop from last year's player efficiency rating (PER) of 16.15 would put the 28-year-old in Jameer Nelson/Chase Budinger territory.
While Matthews could be a steal if he makes a full recovery, potential suitors should be cautious about paying big money to someone closely removed from a devastating injury.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans (UFA)
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Red Flags: Struggles Against Smaller Lineups, Limited Offense
Last summer, the New Orleans Pelicans acquired Omer Asik from the Houston Rockets to bolster the defense and give Anthony Davis a tag team partner in the frontcourt. Asik delivered in the regular season, improving the Pels from 102.4 points allowed per game in 2013-14 to 98.6 points this season.
However, Asik's shortcomings came to light in the playoffs. He posted a net rating of minus-22.5 in four games against the Golden State Warriors as the Pels allowed 113.7 points per 100 possessions with the big man on the floor, per NBA.com. Golden State's smaller, faster frontcourt proved to be a terrible matchup, and Asik played just 79 minutes in the entire series.
The Times-Picayune's John Reid summed up Asik's lack of postseason impact: "The Pelicans needed Asik to emerge as a rim protector, but he didn't get a block and totaled just eight points for the entire four-game series in which the Warriors swept."
Making matters worse for Asik's financial prospects, he'll be competing for a contract with elite free-agent rim protectors such as Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler. If the Warriors series was an indication of Asik's struggles against quicker lineups, his value takes another hit in an NBA climate filled with small-ball teams.
Asik's offensive shortcomings don't help his cause, either. Since contributing 10.1 points per game as a full-time starter for the Rockets in 2012-13, the pivot man from Turkey hasn't averaged more than 7.3 points in a single season.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (UFA)
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Red Flag: Free-Throw Shooting
Since Doc Rivers' arrival as the Los Angeles Clippers' head coach in 2013, DeAndre Jordan has emerged from a promising former second-round pick to a rebounding machine who doubles as one of the league's best defensive centers.
Here are Jordan's numbers in 2012-13, the season before Rivers came to town: 24.5 minutes, 64.3 percent from the field, 8.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game.
Now, take a look at his stats in the two years since:
- 2013-14: 35 minutes, 67.6 percent from the field, 10.4 points, 13.6 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game
- 2014-15: 34.4 minutes, 71 percent from the field, 11.5 points, 15 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.
While it is reasonable to have doubts about Jordan's production if he leaves Lob City, those concerns are speculative and aren't chief among the 26-year-old's potential red flags.
The big issue with Jordan is his porous free-throw shooting. In the last two seasons, only the Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond has been less effective at the line among qualified players. While NBA centers aren't expected to be the second coming of Mark Price, Jordan's career 41.7 percent mark from the charity stripe is a bit disheartening.
In fact, the Houston Rockets were so unafraid of Jordan's free-throw shooting in Game 4 that they sent him to the line 28 times—in the first half, which was an NBA record. The 7-footer would finish with 34 attempts, converting just 14 of his freebies.
Jordan makes up for his troubles by being a monster on the glass and an intimidating presence at the rim. However, at some point, the big man's struggles at the line will make him a liability, and teams will have to wonder if a player with such a fatal flaw is worthy of a max contract.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (RFA)
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Red Flags: Outside Shooting, Defense
Reggie Jackson showed critics he could be a productive starting point guard after the Oklahoma City Thunder traded him to the Detroit Pistons in February. In 27 games, he averaged 17.6 points and 9.2 assists, but the team went 10-17 with him as a starter.
However, this summer Jackson will be a restricted free agent, and teams will have to consider some issues before backing up the Brinks truck. Back in January, Jackson was believed to be seeking a deal similar to the five-year, $70 million contract Eric Bledsoe signed last summer, per Sam Amick of USA Today.
Defensively, Jackson isn't on par with Bledsoe. His defensive rating of 109 with the Pistons was tied for the worst among players in Detroit's active rotation. He also allowed opponents to shoot 45 percent from the field, as opposed to the 43.8 percent they shot normally, per NBA.com.
By comparison, Bledsoe allowed 106 points per 100 possessions and held opponents to 43.1 percent shooting this season.
Also, for as good of a scorer as Jackson proved to be, his outside jumper still needs some work. He had a combined mark of 29.9 percent from three-point range in Oklahoma City and Detroit. For his career, the Boston College product converts just 29.4 percent from deep.
Regardless, Pistons head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy expressed a desire in February to lock Jackson up long term, per NBA.com's Keith Langlois: "We wouldn't have made the move we did if we didn't feel ready to make it a long-term commitment."
SVG echoed similar sentiments in mid-April, per ProBasketballTalk's Brett Pollakoff: "We want Greg [Monroe] back. We want Reggie back."
In Motown, Jackson was able to step out of Russell Westbrook's shadow and into his own limelight, but he still has a ways to go before being worthy of the kind of money he's expecting.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (UFA/PO)
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Red Flag: Durability
Brook Lopez has a key decision to make this summer. He can decline his $16.7 million player option for next season and hope to secure one last lucrative contract in the offseason, or he can stick around in Brooklyn for one more year before testing the waters in 2016, when the salary cap is expected to spike.
Coincidentally, Lopez's potential suitors would also be taking a gamble on the big man's future.
When healthy, Lopez is an outstanding interior scorer who can get after it on the glass and block shots at a decent clip. He averaged 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 72 games, while shooting 51.3 percent from the field this season.
However, the key words there are when healthy.
Lopez hasn't played a full season since the 2010-11 campaign, as foot injuries have hindered the Stanford product for the last half-decade. He underwent season-ending surgery to repair fractures in his foot in January 2014 as well as ankle surgery in March that same year. He also missed 10 games this season with a sore back.
Despite the durability concerns, Lopez will likely have his share of suitors if he opts out. Gery Woelfel of the Journal Times suggested the Milwaukee Bucks could be a match: "If Brooklyn center Brook Lopez opts out of his contract, which is for $16.8 million, one of the teams he may consider, according to some NBA officials, is the Bucks. Lopez has a good relationship with Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who coached him in Brooklyn last season."
Teams in need of an upgrade at the 5 spot, such as the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks, could be interesting fits as well.
Regardless of whether Lopez hits the open market this summer or the next, his extensive injury history will make him one of the riskiest targets available.
Enes Kanter, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (RFA)
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Red Flag: Defense
Enes Kanter put his offensive potential on full display after the Oklahoma City Thunder acquired him in a three-team trade at the deadline. In 26 games, the Turkish Tower averaged 18.7 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 56.6 percent from the floor.
This summer, Kanter will be a restricted free agent, and general manager Sam Presti remains confident the team can secure the former No. 3 overall pick's services, per Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman: "We wouldn't have traded for him if we didn't feel like we’d be in a position to have him with us going forward."
While Kanter's presence in the low post adds a dimension to OKC's offense the franchise has never had before, his lackluster defense mandates that the Thunder pair him with a stopper such as Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams.
According to NBA.com, the Thunder averaged 109.6 points per 100 possessions with Kanter on the floor but allowed 110.4 points for a net rating of minus-0.7. In other words, Kanter gave back everything that he put up. That kind of deficiency makes him a liability and lowers his overall ceiling.
Also, the Thunder announced Kanter underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee at the end of April, which will keep him out of any offseason activity for four to six weeks. With that much time on the shelf and away from the gym, it is paramount that Oklahoma City or any team pursuing Kanter makes sure he's in proper shape before locking him up long term.
Rajon Rondo, PG, Dallas Mavericks (UFA)
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Red Flags: Durability, Outside Shooting
At one point in his career, Rajon Rondo was a potential franchise player and one of the best floor generals in basketball. However, durability concerns and poor shooting over the years have altered that perception.
Rondo hasn't been the same player since tearing his ACL in January 2013. He's played a total of 136 games in the last three seasons (an average of 45 games per year) due to a myriad of injuries, including a broken hand and a fracture in his face.
Rondo's scoring has also decreased each year during that span, from 13.7 points per game in 2012-13 to 11.7 last year to a combined 8.9 in 2014-15. A big reason for Rondo's ineffectiveness as a scorer is his outside jumper, which hasn't improved much throughout his career.
The four-time All-Star struggled from the line this season as well. After he converted an awful 33.3 percent of his free throws for the Boston Celtics, he knocked down a mere 45.2 percent of his freebies for the Dallas Mavericks.
As if that wasn't bad enough, Rondo's tenure in Dallas came to an abrupt end after tension between the 29-year-old and head coach Rick Carlisle led to the point guard being benched during the playoffs and denied his postseason share. The two also butted heads on the sidelines in February.
Any team willing to sign the nine-year veteran will have to accept his personality and make sure he's properly supported on the floor by surrounding him with quality shooters.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (UFA/PO)
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Red Flag: Durability
There is a lot to like about Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love. He's an elite inside-outside scorer, he's an absolute beast on the boards and he bears an uncanny resemblance to Maester Ortengryn from the Game of Thrones video game.
Unfortunately, even one of the best power forwards in the game has his share of flaws.
Injuries have hampered the former UCLA star throughout his career. During his six years with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he missed time with various hand ailments. Most recently, his debut season with the Cavs came to a screeching halt when he suffered a torn labrum in Game 4 of the team's first-round playoff series against the Boston Celtics.
Love underwent surgery in late April, and according to the team's news release, his expected recovery time is four to six months.
The good news is that Love's defended field-goal percentages suggest he's made strides defensively. He also comes with a career stat line of 18.7 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from behind the arc.
This summer, Love could decline his $16.7 million player option for next season and pursue a long-term deal. In the past, he has expressed a desire to stick around in Cleveland. He will likely earn a max contract when he hits the open market, but his extensive injury history makes him a risky investment.
