Which 2015 NBA Team Is Likeliest to Pull Off a 1st-Round Playoff Upset?
Two days and eight games into the 2015 NBA playoffs, we've now seen all 16 teams fire their opening salvos at one another. Luckily, unlike during March Madness, the eight squads that fell short in their respective Game 1s will have a chance for vengeance over the next few days.
Saturday and Sunday each featured just one upset based on seed lines, both of which came in the No. 4 and No. 5 matchups. The Washington Wizards toppled the Toronto Raptors in an ugly overtime clash to tip off the 2015 playoffs, while the Memphis Grizzlies obliterated the Portland Trail Blazers one day later.
The first weekend's relative predictability should come as little surprise. According to Odds Shark's Mark Presley, just two lower-seeded teams—the sixth-seeded San Antonio Spurs and the fifth-seeded Grizzlies—were favored over their respective first-round opponents. The lines for the Raptors-Wizards and Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets series lightly favored the higher-seeded team, while the other four series gave the favorites a line of minus-700 or higher.
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Which lower-seeded team has the best chance of knocking off its higher-seeded foe and advancing to the conference semifinals? Based on regular-season trends and how each Game 1 unfolded, let's walk through the four most closely contested matchups to decide.
Can Toronto Halt Washington's Wizardry?
For the second straight year, a lower-seeded team featuring Paul Pierce traveled up north and stole home-court advantage away from the Toronto Raptors in Game 1. Just like the 2014 Brooklyn Nets, the 2015 Washington Wizards relied upon a small-ball lineup with Pierce at the 4 to turn the tables on Toronto.
Pierce scored a game-high 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting in Game 1, including a 4-of-7 night from three-point range, as the Raptors' bigs struggled sticking with him when he shifted to power forward.
In a rather curious move, Toronto head coach Dwane Casey never brought James Johnson into the game to cover Pierce, despite the red-headed forward having finished with the team's second-best defensive rating during the regular season.
Casey addressed Johnson's lack of playing time following the game:
"James is a matchup [player]. He could be in play in this series somewhere. The difficult thing to do is play all of our wings. We've got a good rotation with Greivis [Vasquez], Kyle [Lowry], DeMar [DeRozan], Terrence [Ross] in that group.
It's hard to get that fifth guy in there, unless it's a special matchup. It will come into play at this series at some point. Today wasn't the day. Believe me, I heard all of the people yelling, "Put James in, put James in." But who do you take out?
"
Johnson's surprising absence was hardly the only issue plaguing Toronto in Game 1.
The Wizards held a 61-48 advantage on the glass, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds to the Raptors' 10.
DeRozan, Lowry, Ross and Lou Williams, four of the team's top five regular-season scorers, combined for a ghastly 15-of-57 shooting night (26.3 percent). Lowry fouled out with roughly two minutes and 30 seconds remaining in regulation, finishing with seven points on 2-of-10 shooting, his fourth-lowest scoring total this year.
Despite shooting 39.4 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from deep, Washington stole home-court advantage. Toronto couldn't beat the Wizards on a night in which Bradley Beal and John Wall went 11-of-41 from the field. None of that seemingly bodes well for the Raptors' chances of coming back in this series.
However, as Blake Murphy of Raptors Republic wrote, it's far too early to write off Toronto's chances in this series:
"The Raptors played a terrible two-way game and still managed to take Washington to overtime. They'll play better, probably a lot better, and heading to Washington tied 1-1 is hardly a death knell.
While Casey can be a stubborn in-game coach, he's shown a willingness and an ability to make between-game adjustments, and there's little choice but to trust the Raptors will be better prepared Tuesday.
"
Given Casey's comments to reporters Sunday, courtesy of Eric Koreen of the National Post, it's safe to say Raptors fans should expect significant adjustments, particularly with regard to Pierce:
If the Raptors backcourt struggles again Tuesday and the Wizards win Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead, Toronto fans would have every reason to begin panicking. Until then, however, one brutal offensive showing does not necessarily portend a decisive upset.
Does Dallas Have Hope Against Houston?
A day before the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets met in Game 1, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry published a profile of Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. In it, the outspoken billionaire fired a shot at Dallas' opening-round opponent:
"There's no more predictable team than the Rockets. You know exactly what they’re gonna do. But James Harden is so good. That's what analytics have begot. Right? Predictability. If you know what the percentages are, in the playoffs, you have time to counter them.
Whether you're good enough to do it is another question. Because they are very talented, and James Harden, I think, is the MVP. Because that's not a very good team over there.
"
Cuban might be rethinking those barbs following Houston's 118-108 defeat of the Mavericks in Saturday's Game 1.
James Harden finished with 24 points on just 4-of-11 shooting—along with a 15-of-17 performance from the free-throw line, matching the Mavericks' total trips to the charity stripe—but recorded a game-high 11 assists, too. Almost as if to prove the folly of Cuban's digs, seven Rockets finished in double digits, and Houston's bench outscored the Mavericks' subs 36-32.
Rockets fans shouldn't be chalking this up as a series victory just yet, however. Though Houston brutalized Dirk Nowitzki as a pick-and-roll defender, the Big German finished with a team-high 24 points on 10-of-14 shooting, earning him the best plus/minus rating (minus-six) of any Mavericks starter. Tyson Chandler, meanwhile, gobbled up a game-high 18 rebounds, a number of which resulted in putbacks and tip-ins.
As Bobby Karalla of Mavs.com tweeted the day after the Game 1 loss, if Dallas reduces a few critical mistakes in Game 2, it could help swing the series in its favor:
The key to this series, beyond Harden getting loose at the free-throw line, appears to be Dwight Howard. The big man played just 17 minutes in Game 1 due to foul trouble, but when he was on the court, the Mavericks were scoring at a dismal rate of 75.1 points per 100 possessions. He also held Dallas to just 1-of-8 shooting when he was defending the rim, by far the best mark of any player on either team.
Hal Brown of Mavs Moneyball delved further into that particular matchup:
"It was totally unavoidable: the second Howard hit the floor, the Mavs refused to shoot from the paint, and he had at least four dunks in the game. He completely stopped the Mavs on both ends.
Getting Dwight in foul trouble was the best thing the Mavs did all game, but they're going to need to figure out how to handle Dwight if he's playing all game.
"
If the Mavericks can adjust to Howard's two-way dominance—or continue to get him into early foul trouble—they'll have a puncher's chance in Game 2 and beyond. They'll also need Chandler Parsons, who finished with a net rating of minus-20.3 in Game 1, to make a far more positive impact to pull the upset.
According to ESPN's telecast of Saturday's Rockets-Mavericks matchup, when the home team wins Game 1, it wins the series 85 percent of the time. Given that historical precedent, the odds are certainly in Houston's favor moving forward, but a few savvy adjustments could bring the Mavericks right back.
Clippers Embracing 'Underdog' Role Against Spurs
Despite being the higher-seeded team and having home-court advantage, the Los Angeles Clippers went into their first-round series with the San Antonio Spurs as the decided underdogs, if Vegas betting lines are any indication.
Heading into Game 1, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers planned on using that "underdog" role to his advantage.
"I think they know it," Rivers told reporters Saturday. "It doesn't matter at the end of the day, but you can use it. I'll use it probably once ... 'Hey, no one thinks you're going to win.' At the end of the day, you've just got to be ready to play."
Clippers point guard Chris Paul sure seemed to use that perceived slight as motivation in Game 1. The diminutive floor general led his team to a dominating 107-92 victory with 32 points on 13-of-20 shooting, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals, coming up with clutch buckets time and again to stymie Spurs runs.
Blake Griffin, who told reporters Saturday that he "100 percent" embraced the underdog role, finished with 26 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, three blocks and three steals. Spurs big man Tim Duncan is the only other player to put up those numbers in a playoff game since the 1985-86 season (h/t Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta).
The Clippers rocketed out to a double-digit lead in the first quarter, only for their all-bench unit to cough it up in a two-minute span, to no one's surprise. Rivers relied heavily on his starters from that point forward, but as ESPN's Amin Elhassan noted, that approach could prove problematic as the series progresses:
The Spurs' starting five didn't emerge unscathed from Game 1 either, however.
Tony Parker rolled his ankle early and appeared to be laboring for much of the night, finishing with just 10 points on 4-of-11 shooting. Tiago Splitter, who returned to the starting lineup after missing the past six games with an injured right calf, played only 10 minutes and had his calf "wrapped up like a mummy" while on the bench, per Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News.
In Splitter's absence, Griffin made mincemeat of backup big man Aron Baynes, who finished with a minus-15 in just 20 minutes. The following two videos sum up how that matchup went:
Overall, Game 1 went about as well as the Clippers could have reasonably expected. The question is, as NBCSports.com's Kurt Helin tweeted late Sunday night: "Can they replicate it?"
Portland Welcomed to Grit-and-Grindhouse
Round 1 of the Western Conference's "Attrition Bowl" couldn't have gone much worse for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Don't be fooled by the 100-86 final score. The Memphis Grizzlies obliterated Portland on Sunday, never allowing the Blazers to get within 15 points in the second half until the waning minutes of the game. They nearly opened a 30-point lead toward the end of the third quarter, asserting their will on both ends of the court.
Blazers star forward LaMarcus Aldridge finished Game 1 with 32 points and 14 rebounds, but he took a game-high 34 shots on the night. Point guard Damian Lillard had an utterly miserable outing, finishing with 14 points on 5-of-21 shooting, while Grizzlies floor general Mike Conley routinely roasted him on defense.
Blazer's Edge summed up Lillard's night succinctly:
Both teams entered with key starters banged up. For the Grizzlies, the backcourt duo of Conley and Tony Allen each were a game-time decision—Conley had missed four contests with a strained right foot, while a hamstring injury cost Allen the final nine regular-season games—but neither looked any worse for the wear when the ball was tipped.
Portland shooting guard Arron Afflalo, meanwhile, missed his fourth straight game with a strained right shoulder. With Afflalo sidelined, the Blazers bench failed to make a significant impact.
Through the first three quarters, Portland's reserves contributed a grand total of 12 points—or six fewer than Memphis backup guard Beno Udrih tallied on his own over that span. Backup center Meyers Leonard got loose during garbage time, finishing with a team-high plus/minus of plus-nine, but it's too early to say whether that's something Portland can expect him to replicate moving forward.
According to Jabari Young of CSNNW.com, Afflalo may well attempt to play in Wednesday's Game 2, which would send second-year guard C.J. McCollum back to the bench. If Afflalo is unable to give it a go, however, the Blazers need far greater production from their reserves to stand a chance against the grit-and-grind Grizzlies, who had five players finish in double digits Sunday.
As SB Nation's Mike Prada tweeted, however, Portland won't go anywhere without Lillard getting back on track:
It's too early to bury the Blazers completely, especially if they get Afflalo back in Game 2. The Grizzlies sent a decisive message in Game 1, however: They're to be taken seriously as Western Conference title contenders, too.
Which Underdog Has the Best Chance of Moving On?
With only two lower-seeded teams stealing Game 1 from their higher-seeded opponents, the Wizards and Grizzlies appear to be the two theoretical underdogs with the best shot of advancing to their respective conference semifinals.
Though the Wizards stole home-court advantage from Toronto on Saturday, the close nature of that victory doesn't seem to portend a blowout of a series. If the Raptors backcourt knocks down a few more baskets in Game 2 and Johnson gets some run guarding Pierce at the 4, that series could feasibly wind up going back to Washington knotted at one game apiece.
Game 1 of the Memphis-Portland series, meanwhile, could very well be a sign of things to come. Since the start of 2013, the Blazers have toppled the Grizzlies just twice in 12 tries, including five straight losses in 2014-15. Three of those five most recent losses have come by 11 or more points.
In particular, the Aldridge-Zach Randolph matchup bears watching. In the three regular-season games where Aldridge faced off against Randolph, the Portland forward had a net rating of minus-12.2.
After the game, Aldridge wasn't shy about heaping praise on his former teammate.
"It's going to be physical, it's going to be a struggle individually and that's just how he plays," he told reporters about Randolph. "I thought I had a bunch of shots that I should have made, and I felt like I was too eager early, and it kind of put me in a bad rhythm early."
Portland could conceivably come back and steal Game 2 from Memphis on Wednesday, particularly if Afflalo returns to the starting lineup. Given how thoroughly the Grizzlies dominated the action Sunday and throughout the regular season, however, they're the likeliest lower-seeded team to pull a first-round upset.
Stats are courtesy of NBA.com, unless noted otherwise.
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