Fantasy Football Week 15: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

If you have played fantasy football long enough, you know the playoffs don't always go according to plan. Your stars can go in the tank suddenly, like Peyton Manning did a week ago, and nobodies can rise up for huge performances.

It is maddening for sure, but it is equally predictable if you understand it going in. We do our best look into the crystal ball for you here.

This is Bleacher Report's Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action, where we review Week 15's top-100 rankings, injury report, starts, sits, sleepers, busts and last-minute waiver options. It is a definitive guide to setting your lineups.

Also, if the fantasy analysis isn't enough, you can reference Michael Schottey's must-read NFL-based Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action to delve deeper into the league-wide minutia.

Overall Rankings

The word "nightmare" seems fitting with Johnny Manziel, even if it is how Cleveland Browns safety Donte Whitner praises him.

According to NFL insider Albert Breer, Whitner said Manziel is the right kind of nightmare for the Browns and can put a lot of pressure on the Cincinnati Bengals defense in his first NFL start Sunday. Breer reported the Browns have installed elements from Manziel's college offense, and it could work, at least on a short-term basis.

We care about Manziel in fantasy because of what he can do for wide receiver Josh Gordon, of course. Gordon told Breer:

"

I think he's got enough. He's got what we need right now to move forward and pull off these last three wins. ... He's willing to do anything, extend a play, and make something out of nothing. That mindset isn't in everybody. A lot of guys will quit, take a sack or throw the ball away. That's not what he does.

"

Manziel can make an instant fantasy impact for Gordon and himself, because of the way he creates plays with his mobility outside of the pocket. That is something that is difficult to defend, Whitner noted: 

"

You see him being Johnny Football. You don't see him trying to duplicate anybody's quarterbacking style, just sitting in the pocket. If something's not right, you see him using his instincts and his intangibles, breaking the pocket. That's where I can see growth. ... It's a nightmare.

"

The nightmare starts Sunday, when we will find out just how much Manziel can impact fantasy for potential Super Bowl berths.

B/R's final rankings for Week 15 have Manziel 80th, Gordon 45th and Jordan Cameron 84th—even if the Browns might hammer rookie running backs Isaiah Crowell (34th) and Terrance West (90th) at the Bengals defense that is 27th against the run and second worst in fantasy against running backs.

Here is the complete top 100:

Week 15 Top 100 - Eric Mack

Rank	Flex Rankings	Team	Opponent	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Andrew Luck	IND	vs. Hou	1	0
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	at SD	2	0
3	Jamaal Charles	KC	vs. Oak	9	+6
4	Arian Foster	HOU	at Ind	11	+7
5	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	at Atl	3	-2
6	LeSean McCoy	PHI	vs. Dal	29	+23
7	DeMarco Murray	DAL	at Phi	6	-1
8	Antonio Brown	PIT	at Atl	24	+16
9	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	at SD	32	+23
10	Drew Brees	NO	at Chi	5	-5
11	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at Buf	4	-7
12	Matt Forte	CHI	vs. NO	14	+2
13	Calvin Johnson	DET	vs. Min	23	+10
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	at Atl	7	-7
15	C.J. Anderson	DEN	at SD	25	+10
16	Tom Brady	NE	vs. Mia	8	-8
17	Dez Bryant	DAL	at Phi	36	+19
18	Jordy Nelson	GB	at Buf	39	+21
19	Justin Forsett	BAL	vs. Jac	27	+8
20	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	vs. NO	45	+25
21	Tony Romo	DAL	at Phi	15	-6
22	Jimmy Graham	NO	at Chi	52	+30
23	Eddie Lacy	GB	at Buf	34	+11
24	Rob Gronkowski	NE	vs. Mia	40	+16
25	T.Y. Hilton	IND	vs. Hou	43	+18
26	A.J. Green	CIN	at Cle	51	+25
27	Mark Ingram	NO	at Chi	38	+11
28	Philip Rivers	SD	vs. Den	16	-12
29	Odell Beckham	NYG	vs. Was	35	+6
30	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	vs. SF	31	+1
31	Julio Jones	ATL	vs. Pit	44	+13
32	Alfred Morris	WAS	at NYG	41	+9
33	Jay Cutler	CHI	vs. NO	12	-21
34	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	vs. Cin	46	+12
35	Matt Ryan	ATL	vs. Pit	10	-25
36	Mike Evans	TB	at Car	54	+18
37	Russell Wilson	SEA	vs. SF	18	-19
38	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	at SD	49	+11
39	Joique Bell	DET	vs. Min	37	-2
40	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	vs. TB	62	+22
41	Matthew Stafford	DET	vs. Min	13	-28
42	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	vs. Dal	60	+18
43	Mark Sanchez	PHI	vs. Dal	17	-26
44	Randall Cobb	GB	at Buf	56	+12
45	Josh Gordon	CLE	vs. Cin	59	+14
46	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	at Ind	65	+19
47	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	vs. TB	50	+3
48	Julius Thomas	DEN	at SD	87	+39
49	Jeremy Hill	CIN	at Cle	48	-1
50	Lamar Miller	MIA	at NE	61	+11
51	Chris Ivory	NYJ	at Ten	71	+20
52	Sammy Watkins	BUF	vs. GB	68	+16
53	Eli Manning	NYG	vs. Was	19	-34
54	Tre Mason	STL	vs. Ari	55	+1
55	Latavius Murray	OAK	at KC	53	-2
56	Roddy White	ATL	vs. Pit	72	+16
57	Keenan Allen	SD	vs. Den	70	+13
58	Joe Flacco	BAL	vs. Jac	20	-38
59	Julian Edelman	NE	vs. Mia	78	+19
60	Jordan Matthews	PHI	vs. Dal	74	+14
61	Martellus Bennett	CHI	vs. NO	76	+15
62	LeGarrette Blount	NE	vs. Mia	63	+1
63	DeSean Jackson	WAS	at NYG	102	+39
64	Kenny Stills	NO	at Chi	75	+11
65	Fred Jackson	BUF	vs. GB	58	-7
66	Giovani Bernard	CIN	at Cle	88	+22
67	Dan Herron	IND	vs. Hou	64	-3
68	Ryan Mathews	SD	vs. Den	95	+27
69	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	at NE	21	-48
70	Steven Jackson	ATL	vs. Pit	79	+9
71	Rashad Jennings	NYG	vs. Was	67	-4
72	Greg Olsen	CAR	vs. TB	80	+8
73	Vincent Jackson	TB	at Car	85	+12
74	Doug Martin	TB	at Car	122	+48
75	Brandon LaFell	NE	vs. Mia	82	+7
76	Antonio Gates	SD	vs. Den	90	+14
77	Steve Smith	BAL	vs. Jac	84	+7
78	Andre Johnson	HOU	at Ind	106	+28
79	Jordan Reed	WAS	at NYG	109	+30
80	Johnny Manziel	CLE	vs. Cin	22	-58
81	Chris Johnson	NYJ	at Ten	81	0
82	Andy Dalton	CIN	at Cle	28	-54
83	Martavis Bryant	PIT	at Atl	86	+3
84	Jordan Cameron	CLE	vs. Cin	130	+46
85	Jarvis Landry	MIA	at NE	92	+7
86	Frank Gore	SF	at Sea	113	+27
87	Torrey Smith	BAL	vs. Jac	133	+46
88	Golden Tate	DET	vs. Min	77	-11
89	Andre Williams	NYG	vs. Was	96	+7
90	Terrance West	CLE	vs. Cin	114	+24
91	Jason Witten	DAL	at Phi	125	+34
92	Shane Vereen	NE	vs. Mia	117	+25
93	Marques Colston	NO	at Chi	89	-4
94	Eric Decker	NYJ	at Ten	101	+7
95	Percy Harvin	NYJ	at Ten	147	+52
96	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	at StL	115	+19
97	Nate Washington	TEN	vs. NYJ	107	+10
98	Mike Wallace	MIA	at NE	94	-4
99	Pierre Garcon	WAS	at NYG	99	0
100	Michael Floyd	ARI	at StL	119	+19

 

Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from more than 100 experts provided by FantasyPros.

Injury Report

Every week, we break down the most significant injuries on the official NFL injury report (NFLMedia.com credentials required) as they pertain to fantasy, from the game-time decisions to the probables and those ruled out.

Game-Time Decisions

Quarterback

• Colt McCoy (neck), Washington Redskins—He handled all of the first-team reps in practice Friday, according to Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News, and is cleared to play, per ESPN.com's John Keim. The matchup makes him a viable sleeper in deeper leagues, particularly two-quarterback formats.

Running Backs

1. RB Ryan Mathews (ankle), San Diego Chargers—He did not practice all week. Even if he still might play, as USA Today's Lindsay Jones reports, you should not trust him against the Denver Broncos' second-ranked run defense. They are third in fantasy against running backs. Sit him.
2. RB Shane Vereen (ankle), New England Patriots—He has been a fantasy fraud all season, even if he plays every week. You cannot trust him now, particularly with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray doing the bulk of the rushing.
3. RB Ronnie Hillman (foot), Denver Broncos—He practiced on a limited basis this week, so he might get a chance to back up C.J. Anderson this week. He is going to be someone to watch closely, especially if you had considered using Juwan Thompson in deeper formats.
4. RB Reggie Bush (ankle), Detroit Lions—He hasn't done a thing for fantasy owners all season, and there is little reason to believe he will start now. Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official website expects him to play.
5. RB Bobby Rainey (ankle), Tampa Bay Buccaneers—He returned to practice on a limited basis, but he is behind Doug Martin and Charles Sims in the pecking order. Ignore him.
6. RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (foot), Baltimore Ravens—The Baltimore Sun's Aaron Wilson expects Taliaferro will be on the wrong side of questionable, which gives Bernard Pierce a boost in fantasy as Justin Forsett's backup against a suspect Jags defense. 

Wide Receivers

1. WR Julio Jones (hip), Atlanta Falcons—He might play after not practicing. The biggest and truest of game-time decisions is a must-start option in fantasy if he is active 11:30 a.m. ET on Sunday. 
2. WR DeSean Jackson (shin), Washington Redskins—Head coach Jay Gruden put his chances at "50-50," per Vacchiano, which is merely what "questionable" means in the NFL vernacular. Jackson will be a great sleeper if he is active. The 1 p.m. ET start helps make the fantasy decision for us. We will know before lineup deadlines.
3. WR Andre Johnson (concussion), Houston Texans—He remains stuck in the NFL's concussion protocol, according to ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli. Have an alternative ready and upgrade DeAndre Hopkins to an elite option against the Indianapolis Colts.
4. WR Julian Edelman (thigh) and WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder), New England Patriots—Both will remain active for Tom Brady and be borderline wide receiver No. 3 options for fantasy owners.
5. WR Kendall Wright (hand), Tennessee Titans—You will have to love Nate Washington as a fantasy sleeper if Wright remains out again. Wright's limited practice time suggests you cannot trust him.
6. WR Percy Harvin (ankle), New York Jets—He told Kimberly A. Martin of Newsday, "I should be ready to roll." You likely have better options, though.
7. WR Cordarrelle Patterson (hamstring), Minnesota Vikings—He has been a waste of space this season for fantasy owners. If you get anything out of him, consider playing the lottery too.

Tight Ends

1. Charles Clay (hamstring, knee), Miami Dolphins—He will play through this injury, but not well enough to be a true fantasy option.
2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (back), Tampa Bay Buccaneers—His impact is too minimal even when he's healthy in that subpar offense. 
3. Cooper Helfet (ankle), Seattle Seahawks—He is only good for a potential one-yard touchdown. There are too many better options available for those.
4. Ladarius Green (concussion, ankle), San Diego Chargers—This season has been a huge bust for a once-promising talent. Ignore him.

Kicker

• Billy Cundiff (right knee), Cleveland Browns—He will kick, but the Browns offense cannot be trusted to produce kicking points for fantasy owners. Look elsewhere.

The Probables

The following players were officially listed as probable, so you can consider them safe to play in fantasy, as needed:

1. RB Jamaal Charles (knee, ankle)
2. RB Eddie Lacy (hip)
3. WR Calvin Johnson (ankle)
4. RB Arian Foster (groin)
5. RB Marshawn Lynch (back)
6. WR Demaryius Thomas (ankle)
7. RB C.J. Anderson (ankle)
8. TE Julius Thomas (ankle)
9. RB Isaiah Crowell (hip)
10. QB Tom Brady (ankle)
11. QB Philip Rivers (chest, back)
12. QB Tony Romo (back)
13. WR Torrey Smith (knee)
14. WR Roddy White (ankle)
15. TE Greg Olsen (knee)
16. QB Eli Manning (back)
17. RB Jonathan Stewart (hip)
18. RB Chris Johnson (knee)
19. K Cody Parkey (right groin)
20. RB Toby Gerhart (ankle)
21. RB Juwan Thompson (knee)
22. WR Harry Douglas (foot)
23. WR Wes Welker (ankle)
24. K Dan Carpenter (right groin)
25. QB Blake Bortles (right shoulder)
26. K Nick Folk (right hip)
27. WR Andre Holmes (shoulder)
28. WR Donnie Avery (groin)
29. TE Anthony Fasano (knee)
30. WR Junior Hemingway (concussion)
31. TE Brandon Myers (calf)
32. WR Josh Huff (hip)
33. RB Chris Polk (ankle)

Find Replacements

The doubtful and players who are labeled officially out have to be benched in all leagues, while their backups should be considered viable fantasy sleepers, if not stars. Line up replacements for these guys:

1. RB Montee Ball (groin)
2. QB Cam Newton (back)
3. QB Nick Foles (collarbone)
4. RB Denard Robinson (foot)
5. RB DeAngelo Williams (hand)
6. RB Roy Helu (toe)
7. WR Steve Johnson (knee)
8. WR Cody Latimer (ribs)
9. WR Mike Williams (calf)
10. QB Zach Mettenberger (right shoulder)
    
11. WR Denarius Moore (knee, ankle)

Start 'Em

Here are five must-start options for Week 15 based on health, game plan or matchup for fantasy football owners, one at each position:

QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

We know Cutler is an error-prone gunslinger, but that last term makes him a huge threat Monday night against the New Orleans Saints, even with Brandon Marshall (rib, lung) out for the season. The Saints are fourth-worst against fantasy quarterbacks and seventh-worst against fantasy wide receivers. Marquess Wilson is a hidden gem ready to break through, as we wrote in Thursday's Week 15 Predictions. Cutler is primed for some Monday night magic for fantasy semifinalists.

RB Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West, Cleveland Browns

These two might split carries 50-50, but the fact that Johnny Manziel will need the running game means you want to start both of these rookies in fantasy crunch time. Even more, the Cincinnati Bengals are awful against fantasy running backs (second worst) and against the run (27th) in general, as we wrote in the overall rankings slide. Crowell and West should each go for 50 yards and a touchdown in this one.

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

He slumped from nine catches for 238 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13 to just 4-49-0 in Week 14, but you have to keep him active in all leagues. First, Andre Johnson (concussion) might not be cleared by the NFL's concussion protocol, as we wrote in the injury report slide, and the Colts figure to make for some garbage-time numbers for the Texans' downfield passing game. 

TE Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

He has gone to rags from his Week 12 riches (5-155), but he might be Jake Locker's No. 1 target in a favorable matchup against the New York Jets secondary. Kendall Wright (hand) is on the wrong side of a game-time decision, as we wrote in the injury report slide, and the Jets are fifth-worst in fantasy against tight ends, allowing an NFL-high 12 touchdowns to them. Walker rebounds nicely here.

D/ST Baltimore Ravens

They haven't been a steady fantasy start in standard leagues as one of the units outside the top 12, per FFToday.com, but the matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars makes this defense/special teams a must-start option in crunch time. The Jags are dead last in fantasy against D/STs. This will be a banner day for the Ravens fantasy owners.

Sit 'Em

Here are five players, one at each of the primary positions, whose matchups are unfavorable enough to keep them out of fantasy starting lineups for Week 15:

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

If this year has taught us anything, it has revealed Kaep to be a fantasy bust. He just cannot get the ball downfield like the other viable fantasy starting quarterbacks. Don't blame his supporting cast either. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Stevie Johnson are plenty of weapons. The Seattle Seahawks—No. 1 against fantasy quarterbacks—are primed to embarrass Kaep and company again.

RB Ryan Mathews or Brandon Oliver, San Diego Chargers

It shouldn't matter to you who starts at running back for the Chargers. Neither is a viable fantasy starter against the Denver Broncos' second-ranked run defense, which is third-best in fantasy against running backs. The Chargers are going to have to try to keep up with Peyton Manning and company getting the ball downfield.

WR Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins

Whether it is Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner on Wallace this Sunday, it is all bad news for Wallace's fantasy owners. The New England Patriots are No. 4 in fantasy against wide receivers for those two very good reasons. You should find an alternative to Wallace. Even rookie Jarvis Landry doing the underneath work out of the slot is a better option in this matchup this week. 

TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers

Miller has had his fantasy moments, but he figures to stay on the wrong side of things for owners this week. The Atlanta Falcons are the third-best team in fantasy against tight ends, allowing just two touchdowns to them this season. Only the Philadelphia Eagles (one) have allowed fewer. Miller is no better than a few catches for 40 yards this week.

D/ST San Francisco 49ers

Not only is this defense aging and banged up, but the franchise is in disarray. Oh, the 49ers also happen to be heading to the worst place to play in the NFL—Seattle against the 12th Man. We might not have seen the 49ers hit rock bottom just yet. With so many viable streaming defense/special teams this week facing very favorable matchups, you cannot trust this unit in crunch time.

Sleepers and Busts

Here are five sleeper options to consider playing and five regular starters to consider sitting—one each at the primary positions—in daily fantasy leagues this week:

Five Week 15 Sleepers

1. QB Eli Manning, New York Giants—He has been a regular here. Having Odell Beckham Jr. going up against the Washington Redskins, the third-worst team in fantasy against quarterbacks and 10th-worst against wide receivers, certainly helps his case to start.
2. RB Chris Johnson, New York Jets—You hate CJ2K as a bust after the age of 27. We love him as a sleeper as he faces his former team at Tennessee. The Titans have the NFL's worst run defense, and Johnson is motivated to stick it to them. The Jets can afford him that opportunity.
3. WR Marquess Wilson, Chicago Bears—Meet the hidden talent that is replacing Brandon Marshall (rib, lung) in the starting lineup in a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Saints' bottom-four pass defense. Here's your Monday night magic salvo.
4. TE Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins or Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns—Pick a Jordan. We like them both to come through in the clutch amid a season of disappointment.
5. D/ST Carolina Panthers—They went from riches to rags this season, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming to town and are fourth-worst in fantasy against defense/special teams.

Five Week 15 Lineup Busts

1. QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks—No one expects the San Francisco 49ers to turn things around in Seattle, but they are sixth-best in fantasy against quarterbacks still. They're good enough to make things tough on Wilson owners.
2. RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers—The Buffalo Bills are one of the most underrated defensive fronts in football, and Lacy has dealt with a back issue this week. He will start and should in fantasy, too, but don't pay the premium for him in daily fantasy formats.
3. WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns—He is too talented to sit in fantasy crunch time, but the move to the rookie quarterback against a Cincinnati Bengals team that is No. 2 against fantasy wideouts is an ominous sign for Gordon's numbers.
4. TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys—He is better than your alternative most likely, but the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed just one touchdown to the position.
5. D/ST Miami Dolphins or Buffalo Bills—Take your pick...err, pick your poison: Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Both future Hall of Fame quarterbacks can be a death sentence to your fantasy hopes if you are trusting a defense against them.

Last-Minute Waiver Options

The late-week news can prove to be just as crucial to fantasy success as the analysis of the matchups and injury report. We review the top 10 most-viewed players the past 24 hours from CBSSports.com:

1. WR Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons—Julio Jones' (hip) shaky health makes Douglas a potential starter and an intriguing deep sleeper.
2. RB James Starks, Green Bay Packers—We should expect the Packers to take it easy on Eddie Lacy (back) as they gear up for the postseason. It should be another busy day for Starks.
3. WR Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots—It is hard to project when Tom Brady will target him heavily, but expect a huge performance for the Pats in a pivotal AFC East home game against a rival that beat them in Week 1. Revenge comes here.
4. RB Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders—You saw what he did against the Kansas City Chiefs the last time, right? You have to go back to the well here.
5. RB Chris Johnson, New York Jets—As written in the sleepers and busts side, we love him to stick it to his former team with a fantasy-worthy performance.
6. RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers—He is the starter and feature back for a team that has to rely heavily on the run with Cam Newton (back) out.
7. WR Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings—We wouldn't trust Teddy Bridgewater against the Detroit Lions, but Johnson has been his favorite target.
8. WR Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens—You should love all of the Ravens at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
9. RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers—As we wrote in the sit 'em slide, there are just too many things working against Mathews this week, including injury and difficulty of matchup.
10. RB Andre Williams, New York Giants—The rebuilding Giants should just make him the feature back over the aged and banged-up Rashad Jennings. The Washington Redskins have a pretty good run-stuffing defensive front, though.

Note: All data referencing fantasy scoring against specific positions is drawn from the sortable stat reports provided by FFToday.com.

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.