Fantasy Football Week 9: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

We are into November, so it is fantasy crunch time for owners' playoff pushes. It is also the time to start checking the weather reports.

Peyton Manning's struggles in the cold are more a function of his Indianapolis Colts dome days, but they are still as noteworthy as the New England forecast...even if head coach Bill Belichick was unconcerned with it when asked about it during his press conference Friday. We break down this and many other insider storylines every week in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action.

Here we give you our final Top 100, review the details from the official NFL injury report as they pertain to fantasy, and provide starts, sits, sleepers, busts and last-minute waiver options. This is your definitive guide to sort through the minutia leading up to kickoffs.

Overall Rankings

When we put together Bleacher Report's Week 9 Big Board and Week 9 Predictions, billing the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning duel as the highest-scoring matchup of the week between two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, we didn't account for rain, snow and high winds, as per Weather.com. It certainly looks pretty ominous for downfield passing.

It turns out Bill Belichick is not really concerned with the forecast projections either, stating in his press conference, per ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter:

"

Look, I'm not saying I could do it better than them, I'm just saying they're wrong a lot. That's a fact. They are wrong a lot. We all make mistakes. I'm not being critical of them. I'm just saying I don’t think you go based on that.

It is what it is. You know as well as I do that it starts one way and changes during the game. So we have to be ready for whatever it is. But in my experience of going with a forecast in this area two days before a game, I would bet a lot that they are wrong just based on history because they are almost always wrong.

When you play in New England, you have to be ready for everything. Based on the forecasts that we have gotten so far this year, none of them were very close to what the game conditions were. There was a 100 percent chance of rain last week, and the only water I saw was on the Gatorade table.

"

If the weather does go south, you have to favor Brady and Co. over Manning. Brady is 42-6 with a completion rate of 63.2 percent and 88 touchdowns to 32 interceptions when temps are below 40 degrees, per Schechter. When it is below freezing, Brady is 25-5.

Manning, meanwhile, has a checkered past in colder temperatures. He is 8-11, completes 62 percent of his passes and has 30 touchdowns to 23 interceptions when it's below 40 degrees. He is just 4-7 in below-freezing temps.

Belichick, though, isn't going to bother to look at the forecast until Sunday afternoon, as he told Schechter:

"

An hour before the game, maybe. There might be something to work with there. If you start game-planning for what the weather is going to be, you game-plan wrong and you've wasted a lot of time. I don't think we are going to see anything out there we haven’t practiced in.

"

Off this, we are not ready to move Brady or Manning from the top two spots in B/R's final Top 100 rankings for Week 9: 

Week 9 Top 100 - Eric Mack

Rank	Flex Rankings	Team	Opponent	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Tom Brady	NE	vs. Den	3	+2
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	at NE	1	-1
3	Arian Foster	HOU	vs. Phi	5	+2
4	DeMarco Murray	DAL	vs. Ari	10	+6
5	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	vs. Oak	13	+8
6	Jamaal Charles	KC	vs. NYJ	15	+9
7	Andrew Luck	IND	at NYG	2	-5
8	LeSean McCoy	PHI	at Hou	22	+14
9	Rob Gronkowski	NE	vs. Den	38	+29
10	Drew Brees	NO	at Car	4	-6
11	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	vs. Bal	21	+10
12	Dez Bryant	DAL	vs. Ari	25	+13
13	Julius Thomas	DEN	at NE	47	+34
14	Andre Ellington	ARI	at Dal	24	+10
15	Ronnie Hillman	DEN	at NE	29	+14
16	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	at NE	26	+10
17	Antonio Brown	PIT	vs. Bal	18	+1
18	Jeremy Hill	CIN	vs. Jac	51	+33
19	Jimmy Graham	NO	at Car	50	+31
20	Russell Wilson	SEA	vs. Oak	6	-14
21	Philip Rivers	SD	at Mia	7	-14
22	Frank Gore	SF	vs. StL	54	+32
23	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	vs. Bal	12	-11
24	Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. StL	9	-15
25	Lamar Miller	MIA	vs. SD	33	+8
26	Cam Newton	CAR	vs. NO	8	-18
27	Alfred Morris	WAS	at Min	41	+14
28	Ahmad Bradshaw	IND	at NYG	35	+7
29	Mark Ingram	NO	at Car	27	-2
30	T.Y. Hilton	IND	at NYG	39	+9
31	Ben Tate	CLE	vs. TB	42	+11
32	Nick Foles	PHI	at Hou	11	-21
33	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	at NE	43	+10
34	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	at Hou	37	+3
35	DeSean Jackson	WAS	at Min	58	+23
36	Pierre Garcon	WAS	at Min	75	+39
37	Shane Vereen	NE	vs. Den	55	+18
38	Chris Ivory	NYJ	at KC	56	+18
39	Mike Wallace	MIA	vs. SD	48	+9
40	Justin Forsett	BAL	at Pit	49	+9
41	Steve Smith	BAL	at Pit	53	+12
42	Julian Edelman	NE	vs. Den	84	+42
43	Jerick McKinnon	MIN	vs. Was	45	+2
44	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	vs. NO	44	0
45	Denard Robinson	JAC	at Cin	77	+32
46	Doug Baldwin	SEA	vs. Oak	74	+28
47	Vincent Jackson	TB	at Cle	64	+17
48	Andre Williams	NYG	vs. Ind	63	+15
49	Jordan Reed	WAS	at Min	91	+42
50	Carson Palmer	ARI	at Dal	14	-36
51	Andre Johnson	HOU	vs. Phi	52	+1
52	Mohamed Sanu	CIN	vs. Jac	66	+14
53	Marques Colston	NO	at Car	83	+30
54	Keenan Allen	SD	at Mia	62	+8
55	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	at Dal	70	+15
56	A.J. Green	CIN	vs. Jac	57	+1
57	Michael Crabtree	SF	vs. StL	78	+21
58	Bobby Rainey	TB	at Cle	81	+23
59	Rueben Randle	NYG	vs. Ind	65	+6
60	Michael Floyd	ARI	at Dal	73	+13
61	Carlos Hyde	SF	vs. StL	124	+63
62	Branden Oliver	SD	at Mia	46	-16
63	Wes Welker	DEN	at NE	99	+36
64	Brandon LaFell	NE	vs. Den	72	+8
65	Trent Richardson	IND	at NYG	80	+15
66	Torrey Smith	BAL	at Pit	93	+27
67	Greg Olsen	CAR	vs. NO	68	+1
68	Eric Decker	NYJ	at KC	86	+18
69	Odell Beckham	NYG	vs. Ind	76	+7
70	Terrance Williams	DAL	vs. Ari	71	+1
71	Brandin Cooks	NO	at Car	67	-4
72	Antonio Gates	SD	at Mia	69	-3
73	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	vs. NO	116	+43
74	Mike Evans	TB	at Cle	90	+16
75	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	vs. Phi	59	-16
76	Vernon Davis	SF	vs. StL	102	+26
77	Eli Manning	NYG	vs. Ind	16	-61
78	Reggie Wayne	IND	at NYG	118	+40
79	Zach Ertz	PHI	at Hou	103	+24
80	Andy Dalton	CIN	vs. Jac	17	-63
81	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	vs. NO	97	+16
82	Anquan Boldin	SF	vs. StL	87	+5
83	Steve Johnson	SF	vs. StL	125	+42
84	Cecil Shorts	JAC	at Cin	101	+17
85	Dwayne Allen	IND	at NYG	88	+3
86	Percy Harvin	NYJ	at KC	98	+12
87	Heath Miller	PIT	vs. Bal	117	+30
88	Tre Mason	STL	at SF	106	+18
89	Jason Witten	DAL	vs. Ari	104	+15
90	Hakeem Nicks	IND	at NYG	152	+62
91	Travis Kelce	KC	vs. NYJ	89	-2
92	Cordarrelle Patterson	MIN	vs. Was	94	+2
93	John Brown	ARI	at Dal	115	+22
94	Dwayne Bowe	KC	vs. NYJ	96	+2
95	Martavis Bryant	PIT	vs. Bal	105	+10
96	Lorenzo Taliaferro	BAL	at Pit	92	-4
97	Riley Cooper	PHI	at Hou	122	+25
98	Andre Holmes	OAK	at Sea	100	+2
99	Robert Griffin	WAS	at Min	32	-67
100	Darren Sproles	PHI	at Hou	113	+13

Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from over 100 experts provided by FantasyPros

Injury Report

We break down all of the fantasy-pertinent players who appear on the NFL's official injury report (NFLmedia.com credentials required) every week right here. All practice-related details below come from there, unless otherwise noted.

Game-Time Decisions

WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (toe)

The veteran was able to practice on a limited basis all week, so it appears he will be on track to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

"If everything stays the way it is, he'll play," head coach Marvin Lewis said, per Paul Dehner Jr. of The Cincinnati Enquirer.

We understand the hesitance to use him, but we have to assume the Bengals have rested that toe enough. Green is the type of talent you start in most leagues if he is active, particularly since the running game is going to be without Giovani Bernard (shoulder, hip).

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (back)

Romo has not practiced all week and is listed as questionable. Brandon Weeden has taken the first-team snaps to prepare to start, but the Cowboys are holding out hope Romo will be ready by game time if he can tolerate the pain.

Weeden told Brandon George of The Dallas Morning News: 

"

Yeah, I feel ready. I'm confident. The uncertainty is the only thing, you know, 'What's the word? Am I going to do this?' that will come. I just have to prepare like I'm going to play and expect the unexpected. Tony is a veteran guy, and he doesn't need a ton of reps. If he's ready to go, he'll go.

"

Romo or Weeden are sketchy plays. The Arizona Cardinals do have the NFL's worst pass defense right now, though. 

TE Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens

Daniels worked up from limited to full practice by Friday, despite having a knee procedure just last week, according to Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun. Daniels is a game-time call, but the fact the game is Sunday night might impact a fantasy owner's lineup decision.

It will be tough to wait for his status and have to start his backup Crockett Gillmore or one of the Monday night tight ends (Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener or Larry Donnell). You should be starting Allen and Donnell, at least, over Daniels regardless.

The Probables

The following players, ranked by relative fantasy pertinence/ownership, are officially listed as probable and can be started as needed:

1. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots
2. RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
3. WR Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
4. WR Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
6. RB Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
7. RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
8. RB Arian Foster, Houston Texans
9. WR Eric Decker, New York Jets
10. RB Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos
11. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (projected to be probable)
12. RB Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles
13. RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
14. TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
15. WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (projected to be probable)
16. TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
17. QB Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
18. RB Chris Johnson, New York Jets
19. WR Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars
20. TE Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins
21. K Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos
22. RB Alfred Blue, Houston Texans
23. RB Juwan Thompson, Denver Broncos
24. RB Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers
25. WR Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars
26. WR Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams

Find Replacements

The following players are officially out or very doubtful, so bench them and consider their backups as viable alternatives:

1. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
2. Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns
3. Montee Ball, Denver Browns
4. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
5. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (doubtful)
6. Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (doubtful)
7. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
8. Stepfan Taylor, Arizona Cardinals
9. Donnie Avery, Kansas City Chiefs
10. Zach Miller, Seattle Seahawks

Start 'Em

Here are five of B/R's underrated Week 9 starts by position, based on favorable matchups, circumstances due to projected touches or opportunities created by injury:

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (vs. St. Louis Rams)

Kaep and the 49ers are well-rested from the bye and as healthy as they have been all season offensively. The Rams are also a good matchup, having been a bottom-10 team against fantasy quarterbacks and wide receivers, according to FFToday.com.

RB Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

With Giovani Bernard officially out, as we referenced in the injury slide, you have to love Hill. He will get the bulk of the carries with Cedric Peerman and Rex Burkhead as the backups. The matchup is tantalizingly good against the Jags' improving but still shaky run defense.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

The Colts are coming off a game in which Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes. The Giants are coming off a bye and certainly had to be watching that. Beckham is as healthy as he has been all season, and he should be considered Eli Manning's No. 1 target with Victor Cruz (knee) done for the season. 

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New York Jets)

Kelce is probable, as noted in the injury slide, and the Jets are the fourth-worst team in fantasy against tight ends, per FFToday.com. Alex Smith is going to exploit that Jets secondary with someone other than Jamaal Charles, so consider Kelce a multiple-touchdown candidate here.

D/ST San Francisco 49ers (vs. St. Louis Rams)

These are not your older brother's 49ers, but this matchup can make this 17th-ranked fantasy unit (FFToday.com) as productive as it has been all season. The Rams have been the second-worst team in fantasy against defense/special teams, according to FFToday.com.

Sit 'Em

Here are five of B/R's suggested Week 9 sits by position, based on unfavorable matchups this Sunday:

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

The Cards have the worst pass defense in football, as noted in the injury slide, but Romo figures to be limited if he even plays.

You might not get much out of Romo, especially if he starts the game and decides the pain is intolerable or the game doesn't stay close. Sit Romo not because of the matchup, but because of his dicey health even if he is active.

RB Jonas Gray, New England Patriots (vs. Denver Broncos)

As noted in the Overall Rankings slide, rain, snow and wind are in the forecast. It doesn't mean you should be leaning on the Pats' big back, necessarily. The Broncos have the NFL's No. 1 run defense and are top 10 against fantasy running backs (FFToday.com).

Start Shane Vereen because of his involvement in the short passing game, but don't trust Gray unless the weather is horrible Sunday and/or you are desperate for a bye-week replacement.

WR Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Cincinnati Bengals)

You will be shocked to know this: The Bengals have a bottom-10 pass defense, but they are No. 1 in fantasy against wide receivers, according to FFToday.com. Shorts has been dealing with leg issues all season, so he cannot be trusted health-wise, either.

TE Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (vs. San Diego Chargers)

The Chargers secondary has been playing surprisingly well for the majority of this season, but their best has come against tight ends, without question. They have been No. 1 in fantasy against them, according to FFToday.com.

Clay has been one of the most disappointing fantasy-worthy options this season, mostly related to injury. He is still not 100 percent, either.

D/ST Houston Texans (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

This selection should not surprise you. Plays and points are bad for opposing defensive units. The Eagles are among the toughest in both categories. They are a top-10 team against fantasy defense/special teams, per FFToday.com.

Start the Texans at your own risk this week.

Sleepers and Busts

We present five under-owned sleepers to consider and five lineup busts you might not want to spend the premium on in daily fantasy lineups:

Five Week 9 Lineup Sleepers

1. QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins—Head coach Mike Zimmer has brought a huge turnaround for the Minnesota Vikings defense, especially the secondary, as it ranks No. 2 in fantasy against quarterbacks, per FFToday.com. We love RG3's weapons, though. He has too many to not be productive, even in his return from a serious ankle injury.
2. RB Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts—He returns after a one-week hiatus and faces a New York Giants defense that has been fourth worst against fantasy running backs, according to FFToday.com. Ahmad Bradshaw has the axe to grind here, but Richardson will get in the end zone, too.
3. WR Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns—The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been torched through the air as the second-worst pass defense and the worst against fantasy wide receivers, per FFToday.com. Hawkins has put together back-to-back strong games, emerging as the Browns' No. 1 aerial threat. He is particularly intriguing with Jordan Cameron (concussion) out.
4. TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs—We already chronicled the reasons for his play in the Start 'Em slide. He is headed for a big day against the New York Jets.
5. D/ST Kansas City Chiefs—They haven't been as good as a year ago, but you have to love any unit facing the woebegone New York Jets right now. Too bad Geno Smith wasn't the quarterback this week. Michael Vick isn't much better, though.

Five Week 9 Lineup Busts

1. QB Michael Vick, New York Jets—We understand Vick is a threat for fantasy points because of his legs and targets (Eric Decker and Percy Harvin), but he is not 100 percent up to speed as a first-time starter here. Further, the Kansas City Chiefs are quietly the third-best team in fantasy against quarterbacks, per the link above, and the No. 1 pass defense.
   
2. RB Chris Ivory, New York Jets—Yes, we understand Ivory has put Chris Johnson on retirement watch, but the Chiefs have been the third-toughest team in fantasy against running backs, too.
3. WR Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos—No matter the weather conditions, you won't sit Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas or Julius Thomas. You might consider benching Sanders against the New England Patriots' No. 2 pass defense (per link above) and No. 3 team against wideouts. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are tough, and they don't even need the windy forecast to aid them. 
4. TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers—We wouldn't necessarily sit him after his big Week 8, but the Baltimore Ravens are top five against fantasy tight ends, and they know him well in the division, unlike the Colts a week ago.
5. D/ST New England Patriots—This is not a great week for streaming defenses because of the matchups. This might be one of the toughest plays of the week, regardless of the aforementioned forecast. The Denver Broncos are No. 1 against fantasy defense/special teams (FFToday.com).

Last-Minute Waiver Options

We have presented Week 9's top alternatives on the waiver wire thoroughly in B/R's Insider Notebook, Week 9 Big Board and Week 9 Predictions. If you're still hunting for some replacement options, we review the prospects of some of CBSSports.com's most-viewed players leading up to Sunday's kickoffs:

1. RB Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals—You have to love him getting the start against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2. RB Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers—You have to love him getting the start against the Cleveland Browns.
3. RB Juwan Thompson, Denver Broncos—Bad weather and a subpar New England Patriots run defense work in his favor.
4. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts—Expect him to be motivated to stick it to the New York Giants, the team that cast him off two years ago.
5. RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens—It is ground-and-pound weather. He is now the No. 2 back over Bernard Pierce.
6. RB Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers—He might play and get touches, but we cannot be sure he does (or just how much).
7. RB Jonas Gray, New England Patriots—The weather is potentially on his side, but the Broncos' No. 1 run defense will not be.
8. RB Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals—He is out, but you should only consider Hill and not backups Cedric Peerman or Rex Burkhead.
9. RB Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks—The Seahawks are disenchanted with Marshawn Lynch, so they might try to get Michael more touches...Robert Turbin, too.
10. RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens—Expect him to be used heavily in this one, especially with Pierce out of favor.

More NFL-Focused Tidbits from Bleacher Report...

There is NFL life after fantasy, so we want to give you all the angles to peruse as you weigh your fantasy options. NFL National Lead Writer Michael Schottey keeps you informed in that regard with his own Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action.

He dives into the biggest questions, stats, trends, matchup breakdowns, notable injuries (including defensive players) and B/R's analyst picks. These odds and ends could make the difference for you.

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.